🇬🇧🇷🇺 Are there ways to stabilise UK-Russia relations?

There are two quick and cynical responses to what has become over the past decade an almost eternal question: how can relations between the UK and Russia be, if not improved, then at least stabilised.

1️⃣ The first would be to observe that relations have, in fact, been quite stable for most of that time - stable at a rock-bottom setting of very bad, verging on non-existent.

2️⃣ The second would be to suggest that maybe both sides like it that way, or at least that it suits their interests.

Anyway, now could be the time for both countries to start making the change, writes Mary Dejevsky, Chief editorial writer and a columnist at The Independent.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/are-there-ways-to-stabilise-uk-russia-relations/

#Conflict_and_Leadership #UK #Russia

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇦🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸 AUKUS: Four Views on a Tripartite Agreement

On November 10, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific?” on the possible implications of the trilateral defence cooperation agreement, concluded in September by the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. The discussion was moderated by Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

🔹 Salvatore Babones, Associate Professor of Sociology and Social Policy at the University of Sydney, said that there is a broad consensus on the AUKUS pact in Australia. The Australian establishment does not care about its potential effect on the fate of relations with China — here, in their opinion there is nothing to lose, since these relations have been completely destroyed over the course of three years of disputes between China and Australia.

🔹 Talking about the European reaction to AUKUS, Sim Tack, co-founder and chief military analyst at Force Analysis, stressed that despite attempts to become a more active and independent player, Europe remains highly dependent on the United States regarding security issues, and it will not go against Washington’s global strategy.

🔹 Andrew Futter, Professor of International Politics at the University of Leicester, said that participation in AUKUS reflects the UK’s long-term desire for a transatlantic relationship with the United States and a stronger relationship with Australia. Accordingly, we are talking more about the development of already existing trends, and not something new.

🔹 Vasily Kashin, Deputy Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, stressed that what happened looks like a major defeat for Chinese foreign policy based on “dollar diplomacy”, ignoring ideological and political factors. China has long tried to put pressure on Australia, but this has only provoked Canberra to pursue irreversible actions which undermine political relations, despite Australia’s strong economic dependence on China.

🔗 AUKUS: Four Views on a Tripartite Agreement

#AUKUS #Australia #UK #UnitedStates #China

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇦🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸 The AUKUS agreement, and particularly the nuclear-submarines component, appear to be part of a broader plan to bolster US capacity in the Asia-Pacific, reassure regional allies of the US commitment to defence of the region, and perhaps above all, to counter the perception of a “rising” and more assertive China.

At the same time, it will look to many like US double standards and even reflective of a neo-colonial attitude to nuclear proliferation where some countries are deemed “responsible” nuclear operators and others are not, writes Valdai Club expert Andrew Futter.

🔗 Unpacking the AUKUS Trilateral Security Partnership: Politics, Proliferation and Propulsion

#Conflict_and_Leadership #AUKUS #Australia #UK #UnitedStates #China #AsiaPacific

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇬🇧 The Omicron wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is accompanied by a deepening leadership crisis in British politics.

1️⃣ First, the irresponsible conduct of the prime minister himself. He has always had the reputation of someone who is above the laws of decency and honesty, let alone truthfulness. In the past this for many was part of his insouciant charm, allowing him to win the London mayoral elections twice, to emerge triumphant in the Brexit vote of June 2016 and above all to win the general election of December 2019 with a handsome majority of 80 for the Conservatives. It looked finally that he was running out of road, and his cheery ‘cakeist’ ideology (having his cake and eating it) would no longer wash. 

2️⃣ Second, the crisis revealed the degeneration of the Conservative Party itself, a process that in its modern guise was set in train by Margaret Thatcher. At that time the party lost most of what makes a party ‘conservative’ and instead it embraced radical neoliberal positions. 

3️⃣ The third point is the larger socio-economic context. There is a severe cost-of-living crisis, with energy prices at record levels, inflation rising, wages largely stagnant and a range of tax increases on their way.

The gulf between the promise and the delivery is widening, the political distance between the devolved administrations growing, and the distrust between the government and people deepening. Ultimately, Britain is suffering not only a crisis of governance but entering into a fully-fledged crisis of the state, writes Valdai Club expert Richard Sakwa.

🔗 Covid and Leadership Crisis in Britain — https://bit.ly/3qRNHJZ

🔵 The article is published within the framework of a new Valdai Club programme “Norms and values”.

#Norms_and_Values #UK #BorisJohnson

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇬🇧🇷🇺 The visit to Moscow by British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss can be considered a textbook example of a combination of diplomacy and sanctions. 

The main purpose of Liz Truss's visit to Russia was to send a clear signal to the Russian Foreign Minister that Moscow should take steps to withdraw its troops from the border with Ukraine, respect its sovereignty and engage in meaningful negotiations. 

On the eve of the visit, it was announced that London had inserted the amendments to the regulation on sanctions against Russia. In other words, the British side made it clear that it was ready to use sanctions as a “whip” if its position was not heard.

The meeting with Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, ended as expected, with a “conversation between dumb and deaf.” 

Liz Truss's rhetoric was built around a hypothetical military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, while Sergey Lavrov focused on the West ignoring Russian proposals for the security system in Europe. Moscow does not welcome London’s active supply of arms to Ukraine, and the threat of possible sanctions was followed by a warning about countermeasures. On the same day, British amendments to the regulation on sanctions against Russia were published.

Scholars have long debated the effectiveness of sanctions in reinforcing a diplomatic position. The UK Foreign Secretary’s visit to Moscow will most likely be among the least successful ones.

The introduction of amendments to the United Kingdom's sanctions legislation on Russia on the day of the visit was unlikely to achieve any results other than prompting cold restraint from Moscow, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

🔗 Sanctions and Diplomacy: In the Wake of Liz Truss’s Visit to Russia

🔵 The article is published within the framework of Valdai Club programme “Economic statecraft”.

#EconomicStatecraft #sanctions #UK

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇬🇧 Britain dreams of still being in the nineteenth century.

Today it is experiencing an economic and commercial crisis, the pound is weakening, it is unable to attract international capital to support development, and it has been hit by high inflation and increasingly serious social tensions.

More and more, its alliance with the United States is beginning to show the characteristics of a vassalage, writes Dario Velo, a Professor at Pavia University.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-crisis-of-english-sovereignty/

#Norms_and_Values #UK #GreatBritain

@valdai_club

🇬🇧 Rishi Sunak, who became the new leader of the Conservative party and prime minister, differs in many ways from his predecessors.

🔸 He is the youngest head of the British government in the last two centuries (he is 42 years old).

🔸 He is the owner of a large fortune and is among the 250 richest people in the country.

🔸 Sunak is a descendant of immigrants from India. In recent years, the descendants of immigrants, including those from former African and Asian colonies, have held high positions in the British government, but for the first time one has managed to reach the very top. 

Rishi Sunak undoubtedly faces a number of very serious problems, both current and long-term, and he will face a tough test of strength. First of all, there’s the economy. The country is experiencing a high level of inflation, the main sectors of the economy are in recession and all this is happening amid an energy crisis.

Britain’s foreign policy is also facing difficult challenges. Like all former empires, it is constantly searching for its place in a changing world.

After leaving the EU, London approved a new line — a “Global Britain”, which it has been trying to pursue in recent years. At the same time, special emphasis is placed on the Indo-Pacific region (the AUKUS alliance, the development of ties with India, Japan, etc.).

In the context of this policy, London also pursues a particularly hard line toward Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. By providing significant assistance to Ukraine, Britain is trying to increase its importance in world affairs.

It is unlikely that Rishi Sunak will make significant adjustments to British foreign policy, writes Konstantin Khudolei, head of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/prime-minister-rishi-sunak-a-test-of-strength/

#RishiSunak #UK

@valdai_club