Valdai Discussion Club
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🧳🌐 The pandemic partly realised a hypothetical situation long idealised among migrantophobes: “how much better it would be if the migrants went back where they came from.”

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely limited international migration due to border closures and has forced millions of people to return home. According to expert estimates, the pandemic reduced the number of international migrants by the middle of 2020 by about 2 million people: to 281 million people instead of the expected 283 million people. In 2020, immigration to the countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) was half what it had been in 2019; in Canada the number of immigrants decreased by 45%, and in Australia – by 70%. To compensate the negative impact on its economy, Canada launched a recruitment programme to bring in 400,000 immigrants in 2021, 2022 and 2023. The number of migrants who came to Saudi Arabia decreased by 90%.

Although some, rather than all migrants returned to their homelands, the host countries were able to really feel what it was like to do without them.

The pandemic could have even more lasting and quite unpredictable outcomes, in view of the fact that the sharp decline in migration flows, and in some cases their complete disruption, coincided with a structural realignment of the labour market, which had a negative impact on the socioeconomic situation in the countries of origin, as well as destination countries.

The 2020-2021 crisis may lead to a radical shift in sentiment toward migration, especially when it comes to migrant workers, which could prompt various political parties and social groups to change their political platforms, write the authors of a new Valdai Club report, titled “International Migration in Pandemic Times: Disrupted Links, Remittances and Migrantophobia” (download PDF).

💡 The presentation of the report will take place today at 4 p.m. Moscow time. The live broadcast will be available on our website.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/international-migration-in-pandemic-times/
UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion will be available soon via the same link. Stay tuned!

🎥 LIVE: at 4:00 p.m. Moscow time the Valdai Discussion Club will present a report, titled “International migration in the era of the pandemic: breaking ties, remittances and migrantophobia”.

The report is available on our website. You can also download it in PDF.

https://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/video/international-migration-in-the-era-of-the-pandemic/
Valdai Discussion Club pinned «UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion will be available soon via the same link. Stay tuned! 🎥 LIVE: at 4:00 p.m. Moscow time the Valdai Discussion Club will present a report, titled “International migration in the era of the pandemic: breaking…»
Valdai Discussion Club pinned «🧳🌐 The pandemic partly realised a hypothetical situation long idealised among migrantophobes: “how much better it would be if the migrants went back where they came from.” The COVID-19 pandemic has severely limited international migration due to border closures…»
📷 Today, on August 25, the Valdai Discussion Club presented a report, titled “International migration in the era of the pandemic: breaking ties, remittances and migrantophobia”.

👉 Photo gallery of the meeting is available on our Instagram.

🎞 The video will be available via this link soon.

Stay tuned!
🎓🇷🇺🌐 The Russian community of international relations professionals and pundits is strongly influenced by political realism.

There are several reasons for the popularity of realism.

1️⃣ First, realism is real. It is unlikely that anyone would think to doubt the presence of a destructive principle in human nature. It is quite possible to describe both the behaviour of modern great powers and the actions of smaller players in realistic terms, manoeuvring between the “poles of power”.

2️⃣ The second reason is that realism is as simple as a Kalashnikov machine gun. A minimum number of parts, basic assembly, reliability and unpretentiousness. Even a slow-witted new recruit straight off the farm can master it in a couple of hours.

3️⃣ The third reason is that realism is global. The neorealists have turned it into a systemic theory of international relations. It allows you to operate with holistic concepts such as world order, polarity, structure, etc.

4️⃣ The fourth reason is that realism is comfortable. The realist does not stoop to "interference in the sovereign affairs of foreign states". Realism is a convenient platform for international dialogue. It allows you to discuss high politics, but not to sink into the grime in the corners of the kitchen where such politics is being prepared. From an image-building point of view, realism is a win-win strategy.

👉 However, Russian foreign policy thinking is about to change, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/forget-kalashnikov-russian-foreign-policy/

@valdai_club
🛄 Long-Term Trends in Migration Policy and the Impact of the Pandemic

On August 25, the Valdai Club presented its new report, titled "International Migration in Pandemic Times: Disrupted Links, Remittances and Migrantophobia".

🔹 In his opening remarks, the moderator of the discussion, Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, noted that during the pandemic, the migration problem had become one of the most acute in many countries.

🔹 Andrei Korobkov, Professor of Political Science at Middle Tennessee State University, co-author of the report, stressed that the pandemic hits the refugees especially hard. However, at the same time, the pandemic has demonstrated to governments and businesses that they cannot do without migrants.

🔹 Dmitry Poletaev, Leading Researcher at the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Director of the Migration Research Centre, the second co-author of the report, focused on the situation in Russia. He pointed to a twofold decrease in the migration flow from Central Asia during the pandemic.

🔹 Radim Žák, Regional Coordinator for Eastern Europe and Central Asia at the International Centre for Migration Policy Development, in his remark, developed the idea of the need for an international dialogue on migration problems and the creation of some kind of informal platform to discuss these problems at the interstate and interregional level.

🔹 Maria Apanovich, Associate Professor at the Department of Demographic and Migration Policy at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, in turn emphasised that a year and a half of the pandemic has obviated the interdependence of economies, which cannot be stopped even by such significant changes as the closure of borders and the expulsion of foreigners.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/long-term-trends-in-migration-policy-and-the-impact/
🌐 The world once again faces troubled times, both politically and climatically. And it is unknown which is worse.

This summer quite convincingly demonstrated to us the particularly dangerous changes that the new weather conditions bring with them: the flooding in Germany alone was bad enough. Another question is: why are these changes taking place? There is still no definite answer. But regardless of this answer, it would be better for humanity to do everything in its power to reduce its influence on nature, or at least not to throw firewood onto the flame of climate change.

Alas, hopes that people will adopt more prudent behaviour are unlikely to come true, because a catastrophe is impending if climate change gets much worse. Such a catastrophe will increase tenfold the impact of natural factors.

And this is the catastrophe of the destruction of the world political system, the erosion of values, the decline in the ability of different countries, social and political groups, and cultural models to engage in productive cooperation.

We have moved into the zone of a new confrontation, and so far, we cannot even clearly define its boundaries. It seems that the new confrontation is primarily associated with an understanding of the future and the role of people in its creation, writes Valdai Club Chairman Andrey Bystritskiy.

📌 The article is published as part of the Valdai Club’s Think Tank project, continuing the collaboration between Valdai and the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/chairman-speech/time-of-troubles-or-new-confrontation/
💸🌐 The post-COVID-19 era deserves to be called the era of the great divergence.

The global economy is rapidly recovering. After lockdown measures by nations across the world led to the most dismal performance to date in 2Q 2020, economic activity is being resumed and we are seeing a rapid turnaround in almost all sectors except for some services trade and domestic small enterprises.

The pace of strong recovery is exceeding “expectations.” But does this mean we are entering an unforeseeable situation?

A stronger rebound than expected can of course lead to worries of inflation. There are even concerns that spread of the Delta variant will cause stagflation. These analyses are valid. However, a clearer understanding of the nature of this economic recession could lead to different judgments of the possibility of inflation.

The gap between different income groups, genders, and levels of human capital accumulation has grown further, while economic inequality and in terms of non-traditional security threats has dramatically worsened. This expansion of inequality will be the largest obstacle to sustainable development, writes Kim Heungchong, President of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP).

📌 The article is published as part of the Valdai Club’s Think Tank project, continuing the collaboration between Valdai and the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-great-covid-19-recession-revisited-hysteresis-/
🇰🇵☢️ The experience of the JCPOA is very useful and positive for the efforts of the international community to find ways to involve Pyongyang in a dialogue in order to determine a mutually acceptable formula aimed at stopping and freezing the DPRK nuclear programme, writes Alexander Vorontsov, Head of the Korea and Mongolia Department, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/dprk-and-jcpoa-experience-resolving-the-nuclear/
📆 EEF-2021: The Valdai Discussion Club will take part in the Eastern Economic Forum for the fifth time. On September 2, at 10:00 AM Vladivostok time (GMT+10), a session of the Club, titled “Global Challenges and Opportunities for the Far East and the Arctic”, will take place.

During all previous years, the focus of the Valdai Club’s attention at the EEF was related to Russia’s pivot to the East. Today, this pivot can be considered a fait accompli and we can confidently state that Russia is present in the Asian region. That is why the Club’s session at the EEF is centred not on Russia’s presence in Asia as such, but on the quality of this presence.

The pandemic year has significantly adjusted the external conditions for the development of the Far East and the Arctic region and their integration into the world economy. There were both positive factors — an increase in continental trade and interconnectedness in Eurasia, and negative ones — new non-tariff restrictions, barriers to international mobility. All these factors must be taken into account in the discussion of practical issues affecting regional development. The Club intends to make an analytical “update” of the state of the economy and politics in the Far East and Asia through the prism of Russian interests and capabilities.

The main goal of the session is to find an answer to the question: what new external factors need to be taken into account at the present stage of development of the Far East and the Arctic region?

👥 The guests of the Valdai session are high-ranking politicians, representatives of big business, and intellectuals specialising in political and economic processes in the Asia-Pacific region.

Andrei Bystritsky, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, will make an opening speech at the beginning of the session.

🎙Speakers:

🇷🇺 Alexei Chekunkov, Minister for the Development of the Russian Far East and Arctic (online)

🇳🇴 Glenn Diesen, professor at the University of Southeast Norway

🇯🇵 Atsushi Sunami, President of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation

🇦🇺 Kevin Rudd, Prime Minister of Australia (2007-2010, 2013), President of the Asia Society Policy Institute

🇷🇺 Vyacheslav Ruksha, Deputy Director of ROSATOM; Director for the Northern Sea Route (NSR) Directorate of ROSATOM

🇷🇺 Yuri Trutnev, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, Presidential Plenipotentiary Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District (online)

Moderator:

🚩 Timofei BordachevProgramne Director of the Valdai Discussion Club; Academic Supervisor of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics

Working languages: Russian, English.

📍Venue: Vladivostok, Far Eastern Federal University, Building B, Conference Hall No. 6.

Entrance to the event is free to EEF participants and journalists accredited at the Forum.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/the-valdai-club-s-session-at-the-eastern-economic-forum-2021/
Valdai Discussion Club pinned «📆 EEF-2021: The Valdai Discussion Club will take part in the Eastern Economic Forum for the fifth time. On September 2, at 10:00 AM Vladivostok time (GMT+10), a session of the Club, titled “Global Challenges and Opportunities for the Far East and the Arctic”…»
🇷🇺🌏 For Russia, the “turn to the East” is a serious and long-term affair.

“Russia’s pivot to the East” was originally inspired by both geostrategic and practical considerations. In geostrategic terms, the absolute dependence of Russia on trade and other economic ties to Europe became unacceptable immediately after Russia was able to overcome the consequences of the internal shocks which followed the geopolitically catastrophic collapse of the USSR.

In the East, has a huge population, which is rapidly increase their consumption potential. Developing Siberia, and especially the Far East, is the most reliable way to strengthen the integrity and cohesion of the vast Russian state in its entirety. New opportunities to realise this potential became apparent 10 years ago, when the economic development of Asian countries acquired a new quality, allowing people to talk about the region not only as a "workshop of the world", but also as a "consumer of the world". Utilising this practical opportunity is no less important than the geostrategic basis of the “pivot to the East”.

In the phrase “Russia's pivot to the East” the key word is Russia, where internal development through the use of new opportunities in Asia is a national priority, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programne Director of the Valdai Club and a moderator of Valdai Club's session at the Eastern Economic Forum.

📌 The session, titled “Global Challenges and Opportunities for the Far East and the Arctic”, will take place on September 2, at 10:00 AM Vladivostok time (GMT+10).

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turn-to-the-east-and-the-new-world-geopolitics/
💉 A situation is emerging where vaccination has been transformed from a private choice into a mobilisation tool of the state to combat the pandemic.

Over the past month, more and more countries have begun to announce mandatory vaccination against coronavirus for certain segments of the population, usually associated with certain professions. As a rule, those obliged to get vaccinated work in management, the service sector (food, trade, transport), etc. Also, in many cases, compulsory vaccination has affected higher education — both teachers and students. To what extent this measure violates human rights (the right to work, the right to education, the right to an informed choice in the field of health care) is debatable and complex, although in fact, it’s a simple question. Obviously there is a violation. The essence of the matter is only in the balance between the interests of the whole society and/or the state, on the one hand, and human rights, on the other.

There are different lists of approved vaccines in different countries, which do not always coincide with each other. Accordingly, the world has not developed a homogeneous global vaccine space from a legal point of view. This has already found its reflection in vaccine passports, and in introducing them, states recognise some vaccines and do not recognise others.

Another aspect of the same problem has been the dramatic changes to the visa and entry policies of a number of states. This has a serious negative impact on the restoration of global mobility, both in the tourism and business sectors and in the cross-border labor market, as it discourages foreign workers from entering or returning to the country where they used to work.

Accordingly, the vaccine is becoming an instrument of restrictive migration policy, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Oleg Barabanov.

#Morality_and_Law #vaccination

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/mandatory-identification-and-human-rights/
🇺🇸🇷🇺 If there is one lesson to take from the Cold War it is that even when bilateral relations are most strained everyone benefits from continued communication.

The dialogue, which was announced following a summit meeting between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin on 16th June, has been seen as an important first step in addressing a growing range of national and global security concerns held by both parties, and to hopefully lay the groundwork for future arms control and risk reduction measures.

What is hoped is that these high-level meetings will help to address the most pressing national security concerns, explore possibilities for arms control and thus hopefully prevent a future arms race and conflict, writes Andrew Futter, Professor of International Politics, University of Leicester, UK. Professor Futter’s work is currently funded by the European Research Council.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/us-russia-strategic-stability-dialogue-why/

#Conflict_and_Leadership #US #Russia @valdai_club
🇷🇺👉🌏 In recent years, the turn to the East, or pivot to Asia, has been one of the most popular topics in the Russian political and media discourse.

Assessments of this process vary: some consider it a long-overdue necessity and a chance for Russia to increase its competitiveness in the 21st century. Others think this project is a product of Moscow policymakers and does not take into account the real needs of Russians residing in the Asian parts of the country.

Asia’s changing role and its importance in terms of Russia's development are recognised and reflected at the highest level. In 2012, in his election article, “’Russia and the Changing World’ Vladimir Putin wrote about catching the “Chinese wind” in the “sails” of the Russian economy. The eternal question of Russian identity, “who are we?” was overshadowed by a new imperative: “to be closer to Asia to be competitive in the 21st century”. As we will see below, this has not put an end to the discussion of identity.

Russia’s turn to the East is built up from two components: the establishment of increasingly deeper and more active relations with the countries of East Asia and the development of the eastern regions of the country during this process, writes Anton Bespalov, valdaiclub.com Deputy Editor-in-Chief.

📌 We will discuss this and other issues within the framework of the Eastern Economic Forum. The Valdai Club session, titled “Global Challenges and Opportunities for the Far East and the Arctic”, will take place on September 2, at 10:00 AM Vladivostok time (GMT+10).

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia-s-turn-to-the-east-expectations-and-the-rea/

@valdai_club #EEF2021 #EEF
📆 Tomorrow, on September 2, the Valdai Club will take part in the Eastern Economic Forum for the fifth time.

A session of the Club, titled “Global Challenges and Opportunities for the Far East and the Arctic” will start at 10:00 AM Vladivostok time (GMT+10)/ 3:00 AM Moscow time (GMT+3)
. The live broadcast of the session will be available on our website.

The main goal of the session is to find an answer to the question: what new external factors need to be taken into account at the present stage of development of the Far East and the Arctic region?

👥 The guests of the Valdai session are high-ranking politicians, representatives of big business, and intellectuals specialising in political and economic processes in the Asia-Pacific region.

https://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/video/valdai-club-session-at-the-eef-2021/

#EEF #EEF2021 @valdai_club

📷 © Sputnik/Vitaliy Ankov
🌏🧊🌐 The Far East and the Arctic in a New Global Context

Almost ten years ago, Russia declared the development of the Far East a national priority for the 21st century.

On Thursday, September 2, within the framework of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, the Valdai Discussion Club held a special session, titled “Global Challenges and Opportunities for the Far East and the Arctic”.

Despite the complexity and multifaceted nature of this task, the "pivot to the East" policy is bearing fruit: it is not the first year that the pace of development of the region has outperformed the average for Russia. However, over the years, the world we live in has changed: there has been a rollback of globalisation, new geopolitical configurations are emerging, the world economy is beginning to transform under the influence of the “green” agenda, and the coronavirus pandemic has presented humanity with new social challenges.

The Valdai Club session at the EEF-2021 was devoted to the opportunities and threats that the new global context creates for the Russian Far East and the Arctic. Follow this link to read a summery of the session ⬇️

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/the-far-east-and-the-arctic-in-a-new-global-context/
📷 On Thursday, September 2, the Valdai Club held a session, titled “Global Challenges and Opportunities for the Far East and the Arctic”, within the framework of the Eastern Economic Forum.

👉 Photo gallery of the meeting is available on our Instagram.

🎞 The video of the session will be available via this link soon.

Stay tuned!
🌏🧊 The Arctic and the Far East are unique and strategically important territories for Russia, which provide a high degree of integration into the world's transport and logistics system, opportunities for the development of new green technologies and a unique investment climate, created in recent years.

👉 Special for Valdai Club's participation in the Eastern Economic Forum we created an infographic on global opportunities for the Far East and the Arctic. The Valdai Club session, titled “Global Challenges and Opportunities for the Far East and the Arctic”, took place on September 2 in Vladivostok.

Follow this link to find the full high-res infographic.

#EEF2021 #EEF @roscongress