🚫 The threat of applying secondary sanctions is often perceived as a key way to influence violators of foreign restrictions against Russia.

The frequency of using both tools of pressure has increased significantly since February 2022 as a result of a significant expansion of financial sanctions and export controls against Russia. Unlike the United States, which has extensive experience in applying secondary sanctions, the EU’s experience in this area can be assessed as very limited.

The focus on the law enforcement practice of EU countries against violators of the EU sanctions against Russia is updated taking into account a number of circumstances.

The EU’s coercive measures no longer act as an alternative to secondary sanctions. On the contrary, administrative and criminal prosecution can be combined with the use of secondary restrictions, which creates additional risks for European businesses still working with Russian partners, writes Polina Chupriyanova, Program Coordinator at the Russian International Affairs Council.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-eu-steps-up-the-fight-against-sanctions-evasio/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions #EU

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🇫🇷 The fall of Barnier: farewell to Macronism or return of Napoleon III?

The victory of Parliament over the Barnier Government seems to open the final chapter of the Macronist regime.

The terrifying context of a likely war of the EU against Russia for the Ukraine with French troops being sent on the Russian front is less a danger than an option to the French Europeanist tyrant: he can use it as a tool to unite the French political system around him, Olivier Roqueplo writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-fall-of-barnier-farewell-to-macronism/

#GlobalAlternatives #France #Macron

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2️⃣0⃣2️⃣5️⃣ There is virtually no doubt that the problems of 2024 will reappear in full and even with reinforcements in 2025.

One of the reasons for the protracted global political crisis in which we now exist is that the creative ability of modern political thought is clearly insufficient to offer a more or less realistic and digestible model of the future.

The task facing modern political thought is extremely difficult. It is necessary to somehow put together a puzzle of the good of the individual and the good of society, it is necessary to understand what the social organisation of modern society should be so that both the individual and the public good are in harmony, writes Valdai Club Chairman Andrey Bystritskiy.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/chairman-speech/rules-of-reckoning/

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🌐 To assess the foreign policy preferences of potential BRICS partners, it is interesting to look at their voting in the UN General Assembly.

It is clear that their results should not be taken as absolutes, and the real political practice of states is not limited to voting results and is not determined by them.

But these votes are also symbolically quite important, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Oleg Barabanov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/political-positions-brics-partner-countries/

#GlobalAlternatives #BRICS

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🌏 Greater Eurasia is the central region of the world, the situation in which is organically linked with world politics and the economy.

It is in Greater Eurasia that we are now most clearly observing the rivalry between two basic models of relations between states — cooperation, which is personified by regional institutions and platforms, and competition, the embodiment of which are the ties and interaction of the countries of the region with the global economy and politics, which remain under the control of the West.

Any discussions about the future of Greater Eurasia should take into account the impossibility of building regional life around a single institution or informal association with clear and binding tasks, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/greater-eurasia-challenges-and-hypotheses/

#WiderEurasia

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⚔️ Contrary to optimistic expectations, the new administration is unlikely to initiate a comprehensive settlement in Ukraine. A more likely scenario for the development of events will be a US move to “freeze” the conflict.

The main tasks that the Trump administration needs to address remain unchanged: eliminating the threat that the allies will lose trust in its security guarantees, keeping Ukraine in its sphere of influence as an asset against Russia in the future, and preventing the normalisation of relations between the EU and Russia. The US needs to stabilize the long-term crisis and maintain its predictability.

Freezing the Ukraine conflict along the contact line, rather than seeking a deeper resolution, suits the US: there will remain a point of tension in Eastern Europe, which will encourage the EU to remain dependent on Washington in terms of ensuring its own security, writes Andrey Sushentsov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-ukrainian-crisis-in-2025/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Ukraine #UnitedStates

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💸 The financialized dollar system has increased international inequality massively.

Here is an incomplete list of the ways it has:

▪️ It systematically undervalues World Majority currencies, allowing dollar holders to buy World Majority products and services dirt cheap.

▪️ It rests on persistent imbalances. They spell underdevelopment as no systemic imperative either imposes self-sufficiency or addresses un-competitiveness.

▪️ It offers World Majority governments and firms credit, at usurious interest rates, not when they need it but only when dollar creditors need to lend, usually not counter-cyclically but pro-cyclically.
They have induced debt crises when western monetary authorities have increased interest rates, as in the 1980s and again today.

In the debt restructurings that follow, the principle of creditor responsibility is erased by the IMF and the World Bank who act exclusively as bailiffs for western financial institutions, resulting in the nefarious reverse capital flows through which poor countries have repaid many times the debt they originally contracted, imposing economic retardation on millions.

The dollar system requires the lifting of capital controls to free capital flows which transfer of even more wealth from World Majority countries to the core capitalist countries as the rich transfer wealth to evade taxes at home and to participate in the speculative activity that abounds in the dollar denominated international financial system.

The system has diverted investment from production to speculation, weakening development efforts, writes Radhika Desai.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-dollar-system-the-world-s-most-powerful/

#GlobalAlternatives #dollar #dedollarisation

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🚢 The problem of transport connectivity of the Baltic region has several dimensions.

For the Russian Federation, two issues are of particular relevance:

▪️ transport links between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of Russia

▪️ the problem of shipping in the Baltic Sea, taking into account the unfriendly policies of other states along its coast

It is quite obvious that the current confrontation between Russia and the Western countries may be long-term.

In this situation, transport support between Kaliningrad Region and the rest of Russia should be built taking into account the current geopolitical situation, which has a tendency to deteriorate.

In this regard, special attention should be paid to the development of maritime infrastructure that ensures uninterrupted freight and passenger traffic, Vadim Voinikov writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/transport-connectivity-of-the-baltic-region/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #BalticRegion

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📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On January 16 at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Discussion Club will host an expert discussion dedicated to the situation on the EU gas market in the wake of the cessation of transit through Ukraine.

On the night of December 31 to January 1, the five-year contract for the supply of Russian gas through Ukraine expired. Transit has been interrupted several times over the past 30 years. However, this time, President Vladimir Putin does not see any prospects for a new contract. “Gazprom will survive this,” the Russian leader noted. The European Commission also stated its lack of interest in continuing gas transit through Ukraine, although European officials had previously insisted on the need to maintain it.

Slovakia will suffer the most from the cessation of Russian gas supplies. Prime Minister Robert Fico visited Moscow in December in an effort to resolve the gas supply issue. Gas companies, trade associations, and large industrial consumers from Hungary, Austria, and Italy spoke in favour of continuing transit. Moldova and the Czech Republic were also among the importers of Russian gas.

❓What are the consequences of stopping the Ukrainian transit?
❓Do the preconditions exist for an energy crisis in the EU?
❓How can the countries of Southern and Central Europe solve their problems with gas supplies?
❓What damage will the termination of Ukrainian gas transit do to Gazprom?
❓How can the losses be compensated for?

The participants of the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

🎙️ Speakers:

🇷🇺 Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director General for Gas Issues and the National Energy Security Fund

🇭🇺 Gábor Stier, Head of Foreign Policy Dpt., Magyar Nemzet newspaper (Hungary)

🇸🇰 Ján Čarnogurský, Member of the Board of Directors, Pan-European University of Bratislava (Slovakia)

Moderator:

🗣 Anton Bespalov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

Working languages: Russian, English.
Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-the-situation-on-eu-gas-market/

#Globalization_and_Sovereignity #energy #gas

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