📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On October 2 at 4:00 p.m. Moscow time, the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion dedicated to the situation in the Middle East.

For decades, the Middle East has remained a region with numerous hotbeds of tension. Over the past several years, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has entered another active phase, and Israel's relations with its Arab neighbours are in crisis, despite attempts to normalise them in 2020. The Hamas invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli strikes on the Iranian consulate in Syria led to a new round of escalation.

On September 17 and 18, 2024, thousands of pagers and radios belonging to Hezbollah members exploded in Lebanon, after allegedly being boobytrapped with explosives and equipped with remote-controlled detonators. The explosions were followed by Israeli strikes on targets in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley on the border with Syria.

❓How far will Israel go in the fight against Hamas and Hezbollah?
❓Will Arab states unite to counter the threat?
❓Will Iran continue to follow the policy of “strategic patience”?

The participants in the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

🎙️ Speakers:

🇱🇧 Amal Abou Zeid, Advisor to the President of Lebanon; Member of the Lebanese Parliament from the Free Patriotic Movement (2016–2018) (Lebanon)

🇷🇺 Ruslan Mamedov, Research Director of The Evgeny Primakov Center for International Cooperation; Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS

🇷🇺 Adlan Margoev, Research Fellow, Institute of International Studies, MGIMO

🇷🇺🇱🇧 Alexander Rudakov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to Lebanon

Moderator:

🗣 Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-the-situation-in-the-middle-east/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Lebanon #MiddleEast

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⏰ TODAY at 4:00 p.m. Moscow time, the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion dedicated to the situation in the Middle East.

❓How far will Israel go in the fight against Hamas and Hezbollah?
❓Will Arab states unite to counter the threat?
❓Will Iran continue to follow the policy of “strategic patience”?

The participants in the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Lebanon #MiddleEast #Iran #Israel #Hamas #Hezbollah

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🎥 LIVE: at 4:00 p.m. Moscow time, the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion dedicated to the situation in the Middle East.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239207

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Lebanon #MiddleEast #Iran #Israel #Hamas #Hezbollah

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🗣 On October, 2, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to the situation in the Middle East.

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 Video

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Lebanon #MiddleEast #Iran #Israel #Hamas #Hezbollah

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🌍 Middle East Crisis: Can a New Round of Escalation Be Avoided?

On October 2, a discussion dedicated to the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East was held at the Valdai Discussion Club. The event was moderated by Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.

💬 Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to Lebanon Alexander Rudakov noted that the country is at the intersection of almost the entire spectrum of Middle Eastern problems, suffering from ethno-confessional tensions, a profound economic and political crisis, an influx of refugees, and in the last year – from an armed confrontation with Israel, which has escalated into a local hybrid war since September. According to the diplomat, this conflict is more deadly and severe than the previous Lebanese-Israeli war, and apparently, this is not the end yet. “Lebanon is literally boiling,” he emphasised, adding that the only alternative to negative scenarios is an immediate ceasefire and negotiations with a diplomatic outcome, “whatever it may be.”

💬 Adviser to the President of Lebanon Amal Abou Zeid called Israel's actions a disregard for international law and an attack on all Lebanese. He pointed out the connection between the Middle East crisis and the Ukrainian one. In his opinion, both were the result of America’s desire to rule the world alone and dictate its rules to everyone else. “Lebanon is currently under attack. The Western community has remained completely deaf to its problems,” Abu Zeid said, adding that the country is currently in the same situation as the Gaza Strip. He also emphasised that further escalation of the conflict could, if it engulfs other countries, lead to World War III. 

💬 According to Ruslan Mamedov, Research Director of the Evgeny Primakov Centre for International Cooperation and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Middle East is currently undergoing a transformation of its security architecture, and its countries are seeking to secure their position in the future regional order. He noted that attempts to achieve a win-win situation associated with the signing of the Abraham Accords have failed. “Today, in 2024, we find ourselves in a situation between a zero-sum game and a lose-lose situation,” said Mamedov. The region is caught between Iran, which is trying to maintain the status quo, and Israel, which is seeking to expand its space. 

💬 Adlan Margoev, Research Fellow at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO University, spoke about Iran’s role in what is happening. He noted that Iran’s behaviour as a whole appears predictable and that the Iranian leadership, whether “reformers” or “conservatives,” demonstrates a clear lack of interest in the conflict, reacting to any incidents with the utmost restraint. It can be said that the new Iranian administration is waiting for the American elections to resume dialogue on the Iranian nuclear programme and the lifting of sanctions, but, apparently, the main factor for Tehran is the desire to avoid a major new war similar to the Iran-Iraq war.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/middle-east-crisis-can-a-new-round-of-escalation-be-avoided/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Lebanon #MiddleEast

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🇱🇧🇮🇱 Amid the current regional realities, agreement on the maritime border is becoming less and less advantageous for Lebanon and Israel.

Two incidents involving the detonation of communication devices, the liquidation of the Hezbollah Secretary General, and the IDF's operation Northern Arrows most aptly reflect the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border over a period of just over a month.

Against this background, the "historic" agreement on the demarcation of the maritime border, signed two years ago and designed to pave the way for reconciliation between the two warring states, has remained in the shadows.

The reason for such inattention could be a complex array of foreign economic and domestic political factors that have predetermined the inability of the deal on the division of gas fields to contribute to preventing escalation, writes Elizaveta Yakimova.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/gas-for-peace-why-the-lebanese-israeli-maritime/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Lebanon #Israel

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