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UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion will be available soon via the same link. Stay tuned!

🎥 LIVE: at 15:00 Moscow time (GMT+3) we are starting an expert discussion, titled “AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific?”

🔗 LIVE: AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific? An Expert Discussion


#AUKUS #ColdWar #NewWorldOrder

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
🗽🌏 When considering the main trends of the current international crisis, it becomes obvious that the initiative to the greatest extent belongs to the United States.

The goal of the United States is to prevent the world from becoming polycentric and consolidate its hegemony for the rest of the 21st century. To achieve this goal, Washington is trying to provoke Russia and China; to force them to take drastic steps that will alienate their allies. As a result of the violation of relations between Russia and China and their respective allies, the United States is counting on the release of significant material resources that can be used to strengthen its own influence.

The second task of the United States is to limit the economic growth of its own allies and force them to submit to the allied discipline. The US intends to eliminate impulses for strategic autonomy both within the European Union and among its partners and allies in Asia. Washington hopes that, as a result, it will strengthen its role as a key and indispensable participant in the multilateral military partnerships that US allies are part of.

Working separately with each country, the US seeks to involve its partners in East Asia in conflicts in Europe, and vice versa. This explains the exotic-looking negotiations on the supply of South Korean tanks to Poland. Although there is no direct connection between the Ukrainian crisis and the situation around Taiwan, the US is making every effort to create it artificially.

The search for cracks in the anti-Russian coalition of Western states is futile. Washington securely holds the initiative and literally twists the arms of states that risk raising their voice in favour of peace rather than war, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/motives-of-the-anti-russian-coalition/

#ModernDiplomacy #UkraineCrisis #geopolitics #hegemony #NewWorldOrder

@valdai_club
🌏 A new world order is clearly characterised by the fragmentation of a single political, economic and even information space, which, in particular, affects the weight of fake news.

Its manifestation in Northeast Asia is a de facto return to the system of blocs, where instead of a single space we have two “iron triangles” (Moscow-Beijing-Pyongyang and Washington-Tokyo-Seoul), writes Valdai Club expert Konstantin Asmolov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/on-the-current-situation-on-the-korean-peninsula/

📍 This material is based on the author’s speech at an expert discussion organised by the Valdai Club on May 29, 2023   Compared to the speech, this text is more systematised and is the author's personal opinion on the main issues of the current moment. For convenience, it is presented in Q&A form, incorporating elements of the discussion before and after the speech.

#EconomicStatecraft #NewWorldOrder

@valdai_club
🇷🇺🌏 The World Is Crumbling, but Not Collapsing: The Valdai Club Discussed Current Trends and Future Scenarios at SPIEF-2023

On June 15, as part of the business programme of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2023, the Valdai Club hosted a session, titled “The New World Economy — Not Global, But Interconnected”, featuring Andrey Belousov, First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation.

The concept of a “crumbling world” was coined by the Valdai Club’s researchers in 2017-2018. At that time, the concept describing a process whereby the institutions and structures of the post-Cold War world cease to function, caused objectionsof many experts. However, the pandemic began — and it turned out that the deformation and deconstruction of regulatory systems can occur much faster than we had imagined, Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Club, recalled in his opening speech. Today we see how politics, like an icebreaker, interferes with economic issues, and what seemed impossible yesterday, because it was irrational, is happening right now. At the same time, the crumbling world does not fall apart: it remains extremely interconnected in the economic, informational and cultural sense. Lukyanov invited the participants of the session to comprehend this new interconnectedness and try to determine which principles now define the functioning of the world.

Follow this link to know the key points of the discussion.

#SPIEF #valdaiclub #NewWorldOrder

@valdai_club
🌐 Most descriptions of the international order – whether existing or imminent –invariably include the notion of “many,” such as multilateralism, multipolarity, polycentrism, and so on.

This is natural. The number of meaningful international relations actors is unprecedentedly large, more than in a very long time, if ever.

The world (especially its European part seeking expansion and dominance) has long been accustomed to the rigid hierarchical constructs that defined the international system. Over the past 200 years, the hierarchy has been consistently becoming less complicated. From the Concert of Europe in the 19th century to the opposing “axes” of the first half of the 20th century, and from rigid bipolarity of the Cold War to the “unipolar moment” which was declared after it ended. The latter was the culmination. In a sense, the “end of history” announced in 1989 was indeed a final milestone. Not the end of history itself, but the end of a specific and quite lengthy phase which was an era of hierarchies.

To be sure, hierarchy has ended. However, it did not end with its complete triumph and the dissolution of the international order therein, but with the exhaustion of the possibilities that it offered. The unification efforts have had the reverse effect, as different cultures and peoples seek to emphasise their identity and distinctiveness even more. The current stage is transitional. Ideological attempts are being made to maintain the dominance of a single set of norms and rules in the spirit of the post-Cold War period. But it is being imposed coercively, as in much earlier periods.

The push to preserve elements of the former international order within what is emerging today is an important cause of the current confrontations. However, the gradual convergence of forward-looking states is playing an even more important role, write the authors of the Valdai Discussion Club’s Annual Report, titled “Maturity Certificate, or The Order That Never Was. Fantasy of a Hierarchy-Free Future.” They try to present an image of the future world and bring their findings to the discussion of the 20th Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club “Fair Multipolarity: How to Ensure Security and Development for Everyone.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/maturity-certificate-or-the-order-that-never-was/

#VALDAI2023 #valdai_report #NewWorldOrder

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🌐 The European experience, in the centuries between the discovery of America and the Second World War, saw an alternation between hegemonic attempts by the most powerful state during that time period and the re-establishment of an international balance.

The states that pursued hegemonic attempts include Spain, France and Germany. The state that played a central role in bringing the international system back into balance was Great Britain. The script was basically repetitive; the actors have changed, but the logic which developed during these different phases has been constant.

This presents a question of whether the historical European experience is destined to repeat itself on a global level, mutatis mutandis.

It is also legitimate to ask whether the impetuous development that took place after the Second World War made a few decades enough to exhaust the international order established after the war, paving the way for a new equilibria. Such an acceleration of change represents a historical novelty, to such an extent as to support the belief that it is already necessary to immediately reflect on how to conceive a new order, writes Dario Velo.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-end-of-a-european-world-order-and-the-search/

#Norms_and_Values #NewWorldOrder

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🗺️ In 2023, many of us finally realized that the collapse of the past international order wasn’t a disaster, and contains far more positive things for the development of the whole world.

Among signs of a new international order, several of the most important features can be seen.

1️⃣ First, the emergence of democratic multipolarity, symbolized by the BRICS association.

2️⃣ Second, the gradual erosion of the monopoly of a narrow group of states in various sectors of the world economy.

3️⃣ Third, the revival of foreign policy activity of the majority of countries, which we define as the World Majority.

The World Majority countries do not set themselves the task of breaking the existing international order and destroying globalisation. However, they are gradually increasing the degree of their independence in determining foreign policy decisions and economic partnerships, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/signs-of-a-new-international-order

#WiderEurasia #geopolitics #NewWorldOrder

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