๐ฐ๐ท๐ฐ๐ต Military tensions between the two Koreas will increase and the process of resolving denuclearization will become more difficult.
South Korea has alternately pursued an engagement policy and a pressure policy in successive governments, but both policies failed.
The Yoon Seok-yeol administration is in a position to pursue โpeace through strengthโ, such as warning a strong response to North Koreaโs military threat. President Yoon also put forward the principle of keeping the door open for dialogue, but resolutely responding to North Koreaโs unreasonable actions. It is evaluated that the threshold for the inter-Korean summit has been further raised as the denuclearization negotiations are pursued according to the โprinciple of reciprocityโ.
In addition, there is a possibility that the Yoon administration will raise the issue of human rights in North Korea.
From a geopolitical point of view, since the US-China relations and the US-Russia relations are likely to deteriorate further after the Ukraine crisis, the structure of the new Cold War between Korea, US, Japan, and North Korea, China and Russia will become clear over the Korean Peninsula. Inter-Korean relations are also locked in the structure of the new Cold War, so it will be difficult to expect any progress in relations.
Since North Korea has said that it will not give up its nuclear weapons even if the sky falls, it is a situation that requires a creative policy that will surprise the sky, writes Gu Ho Eom, Director of Asia-Pacific Center, Professor of Graduate School of International Studies at Hanyang University.
๐The article is devoted to Valdai Club's expert discussion dedicated to the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea #NorthKorea
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South Korea has alternately pursued an engagement policy and a pressure policy in successive governments, but both policies failed.
The Yoon Seok-yeol administration is in a position to pursue โpeace through strengthโ, such as warning a strong response to North Koreaโs military threat. President Yoon also put forward the principle of keeping the door open for dialogue, but resolutely responding to North Koreaโs unreasonable actions. It is evaluated that the threshold for the inter-Korean summit has been further raised as the denuclearization negotiations are pursued according to the โprinciple of reciprocityโ.
In addition, there is a possibility that the Yoon administration will raise the issue of human rights in North Korea.
From a geopolitical point of view, since the US-China relations and the US-Russia relations are likely to deteriorate further after the Ukraine crisis, the structure of the new Cold War between Korea, US, Japan, and North Korea, China and Russia will become clear over the Korean Peninsula. Inter-Korean relations are also locked in the structure of the new Cold War, so it will be difficult to expect any progress in relations.
Since North Korea has said that it will not give up its nuclear weapons even if the sky falls, it is a situation that requires a creative policy that will surprise the sky, writes Gu Ho Eom, Director of Asia-Pacific Center, Professor of Graduate School of International Studies at Hanyang University.
๐The article is devoted to Valdai Club's expert discussion dedicated to the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea #NorthKorea
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Valdai Club
What Fate Awaits the DPRK and the Republic of Korea?
Military tensions between the two Koreas will increase and the process of resolving denuclearization will become more difficult, writes Gu Ho Eom๏ปฟ, Director of Asia-Pacific Center, Professor of Graduate School of International Studies at Hanyang University.
๐ฐ๐ท Last spring, the South Korean political class resumed a debate on a matter that until recently seemed to have been resolved long ago, once and for all and, accordingly, has remained off the table for several decades now. Itโs about whether Seoul should withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and create its own nuclear weapons.
This matter is not yet covered in the media, but is widely discussed by diplomats, politicians and international relations analysts.
The countryโs leadership is aware that developing nuclear weapons would lead to a confrontation between Seoul and the rest of the world and, most likely, to the imposition of international sanctions on South Korea, including UN sanctions. The nuclear option proponents hope, though, that their stance will find understanding with Washington, which would somewhat mitigate the impact.
Discussions about the US returning tactical nuclear weapons that were withdrawn from the Korean Peninsula in the 1990s have been going on for a long time, but they have noticeably intensified in recent months.
In addition, the desire to strengthen the alliance with the United States will mean that given the new circumstances, Seoul will spare no effort to prove its value and reliability to Washington. Unfortunately, Russia may well find itself on the receiving end of these efforts, writes Valdai Club expert Andrei Lankov.
#EconomicStatecraft #SouthKorea
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This matter is not yet covered in the media, but is widely discussed by diplomats, politicians and international relations analysts.
The countryโs leadership is aware that developing nuclear weapons would lead to a confrontation between Seoul and the rest of the world and, most likely, to the imposition of international sanctions on South Korea, including UN sanctions. The nuclear option proponents hope, though, that their stance will find understanding with Washington, which would somewhat mitigate the impact.
Discussions about the US returning tactical nuclear weapons that were withdrawn from the Korean Peninsula in the 1990s have been going on for a long time, but they have noticeably intensified in recent months.
In addition, the desire to strengthen the alliance with the United States will mean that given the new circumstances, Seoul will spare no effort to prove its value and reliability to Washington. Unfortunately, Russia may well find itself on the receiving end of these efforts, writes Valdai Club expert Andrei Lankov.
#EconomicStatecraft #SouthKorea
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Valdai Club
South Korea and Nuclear Weapons Debate
Discussions about the US returning tactical nuclear weapons that were withdrawn from the Korean Peninsula in the 1990s have been going on for a long time, but they have noticeably intensified in recent months. In addition, the desire to strengthen the allianceโฆ
๐ฐ๐ท There has been a significant rise of concern in South Korea recently about the state of national security.
One of the main reasons for concern has been the rapid development of the nuclear missile programme in North Korea. Pyongyang currently has delivery systems that allow it to strike the United States, while at the same time it is actively working to develop and deploy its own tactical nuclear weapons.
In an attempt to get out of the crisis, the South Korean political class is primarily discussing two possible solutions. First, they are talking about the possibility of South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons, and, second, about the return to the Korean Peninsula of American tactical nuclear weapons, which were withdrawn in the early 1990s.
In the event of an attempt to create its own nuclear weapons, South Korea would immediately face both international sanctions and harsh sanctions from China. However, the situation has recently begun to take such a turn that an increasing number of people in the South Korean establishment believe that these economic losses can be ignored, writes Andrei Lankov, Professor at the Kookmin University (Seoul).
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/nuclear-weapons-for-south-korea/
#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea
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One of the main reasons for concern has been the rapid development of the nuclear missile programme in North Korea. Pyongyang currently has delivery systems that allow it to strike the United States, while at the same time it is actively working to develop and deploy its own tactical nuclear weapons.
In an attempt to get out of the crisis, the South Korean political class is primarily discussing two possible solutions. First, they are talking about the possibility of South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons, and, second, about the return to the Korean Peninsula of American tactical nuclear weapons, which were withdrawn in the early 1990s.
In the event of an attempt to create its own nuclear weapons, South Korea would immediately face both international sanctions and harsh sanctions from China. However, the situation has recently begun to take such a turn that an increasing number of people in the South Korean establishment believe that these economic losses can be ignored, writes Andrei Lankov, Professor at the Kookmin University (Seoul).
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/nuclear-weapons-for-south-korea/
#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Nuclear Weapons for South Korea?
South Koreaโs direct and indirect nuclear ambitions seem to be put to rest for the time being. However, the situation in the region continues to deteriorate, and this suggests that the South Korean political class will continue to look for some way out ofโฆ
๐ฏ๐ต๐ฐ๐ท Relations between Japan and the Republic of Korea occupy an important place in the regional security complex of East Asia.
Meanwhile, the fact that both countries have agreements with the United States guaranteeing their military security does not make these neighbours real allies. Bilateral contacts are invariably accompanied by the issues each side has with the other.
In the context of significant differences between the positions of Japan and the Republic of Korea, interaction between these countries is potentially possible with the direct participation and mediation of Washington. The development of a tripartite protocol on countering security threats cannot be ruled out.
However, in the United States, apparently, they are betting on the militarisation of the Land of the Rising Sun in their own interests, without thinking too much about how this is perceived in the region, where they have already encountered the Yamato spirit so cherished by the West, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/no-more-triad-prospects/
#EconomicStatecraft #Japan #SouthKorea
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Meanwhile, the fact that both countries have agreements with the United States guaranteeing their military security does not make these neighbours real allies. Bilateral contacts are invariably accompanied by the issues each side has with the other.
In the context of significant differences between the positions of Japan and the Republic of Korea, interaction between these countries is potentially possible with the direct participation and mediation of Washington. The development of a tripartite protocol on countering security threats cannot be ruled out.
However, in the United States, apparently, they are betting on the militarisation of the Land of the Rising Sun in their own interests, without thinking too much about how this is perceived in the region, where they have already encountered the Yamato spirit so cherished by the West, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/no-more-triad-prospects/
#EconomicStatecraft #Japan #SouthKorea
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Valdai Club
No More Triad? Prospects for Relations Between the Republic of Korea and Japan
Relations between Japan and the Republic of Korea occupy an important place in the regional security complex of East Asia. Meanwhile, the fact that both countries have agreements with the United States guaranteeing their military security does not make theseโฆ
๐๐ What does the intensification of interaction between the United States, South Korea and Japan in trilateral and other formats mean for Russia?
It points to a greater consolidation of bloc architecture in Northeast Asia, even compared to the 2010s. Unlike the publicised AUKUS, in this case one cannot refer only to the traditional cooperation between Anglo-Saxon countries. Even more cautious states, which previously included the Republic of Korea, have been drawn into the network of American minilateralism.
Moreover, Washington is getting better and better at linking its Euro-Atlantic and Asia-Pacific alliances. If in the 2010s South Korea and Japan shied away from the policy of pressure on Russia or took only symbolic measures, this is no longer possible in the new conditions. It is indicative that Seoul, which has declared its non-participation in the supply of arms to Ukraine, is gradually turning into a source of replenishment of arsenals for NATO (primarily Poland). It even allowed the transfer to Kiev of equipment with South Korean components.
As the bloc logic consolidates, we should expect the deployment of the additional military potential of the United States and its allies near the Russian Far East.
Russia will have to respond to such changes as it faces a growing NATO military presence along its western borders. Moreover, the significance of the situation in the Pacific theatre will grow for Moscow as the Russian economy reorients towards relations with non-Western partners.
The apparent convergence in the Washington-Seoul-Tokyo triangle creates challenges for the new logistics routes currently being built with much difficulty, including through the Sea of Japan, writes Valdai Club expert Igor Istomin.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-us-south-korea-japan-triangle-in-the-biden-doc/
#Norms_and_Values #Japan #SouthKorea #UnitedStates #AUKUS
๐ฃ ๐ฃ ๐ฃ
It points to a greater consolidation of bloc architecture in Northeast Asia, even compared to the 2010s. Unlike the publicised AUKUS, in this case one cannot refer only to the traditional cooperation between Anglo-Saxon countries. Even more cautious states, which previously included the Republic of Korea, have been drawn into the network of American minilateralism.
Moreover, Washington is getting better and better at linking its Euro-Atlantic and Asia-Pacific alliances. If in the 2010s South Korea and Japan shied away from the policy of pressure on Russia or took only symbolic measures, this is no longer possible in the new conditions. It is indicative that Seoul, which has declared its non-participation in the supply of arms to Ukraine, is gradually turning into a source of replenishment of arsenals for NATO (primarily Poland). It even allowed the transfer to Kiev of equipment with South Korean components.
As the bloc logic consolidates, we should expect the deployment of the additional military potential of the United States and its allies near the Russian Far East.
Russia will have to respond to such changes as it faces a growing NATO military presence along its western borders. Moreover, the significance of the situation in the Pacific theatre will grow for Moscow as the Russian economy reorients towards relations with non-Western partners.
The apparent convergence in the Washington-Seoul-Tokyo triangle creates challenges for the new logistics routes currently being built with much difficulty, including through the Sea of Japan, writes Valdai Club expert Igor Istomin.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-us-south-korea-japan-triangle-in-the-biden-doc/
#Norms_and_Values #Japan #SouthKorea #UnitedStates #AUKUS
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The US โ South Korea โ Japan Triangle in the Biden Doctrine
The apparent convergence in the Washington-Seoul-Tokyo triangle creates challenges for the new logistics routes currently being built with much difficulty, including through the Sea of Japan, writes Valdai Club expert Igor Istomin.
๐ฐ๐ท๐บ๐ธ๐ท๐บ The Yoon Suk-yeol government appears to be attempting a careful change in its existing position towards Russia, prioritizing the restoration of Korea-US-Japan cooperation and the strengthening of the ROK-US alliance.
However, the Yoon administration has maintained a cautious stance toward Russia, which is a key partner in its Northern Policy and has influence over the North Korean nuclear issue.
As approximately 160 Korean companies operate in Russia, any deterioration in Korea-Russia relations would pose a significant economic burden on South Korea. Furthermore, if military cooperation between North Korea and Russia were to strengthen, it would present an even greater threat to South Korean security.
Therefore, it is not easy for South Korea to decide on arms support to Ukraine, despite considerable Western pressure on the Korean government for arms support, as seen in the recent US secret leak scandal.
The US seeks to integrate NATO more closely into the emerging Asian partnerships, AUKUS and QUAD, while also strengthening cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan. In this context, Washington wants South Korea, as a military power, to establish links with NATO through arms support to Ukraine, writes Valdai Club expert Gu Ho Eom.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/why-is-the-u-s-seeking-to-involve-south-korea/
#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea
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However, the Yoon administration has maintained a cautious stance toward Russia, which is a key partner in its Northern Policy and has influence over the North Korean nuclear issue.
As approximately 160 Korean companies operate in Russia, any deterioration in Korea-Russia relations would pose a significant economic burden on South Korea. Furthermore, if military cooperation between North Korea and Russia were to strengthen, it would present an even greater threat to South Korean security.
Therefore, it is not easy for South Korea to decide on arms support to Ukraine, despite considerable Western pressure on the Korean government for arms support, as seen in the recent US secret leak scandal.
The US seeks to integrate NATO more closely into the emerging Asian partnerships, AUKUS and QUAD, while also strengthening cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan. In this context, Washington wants South Korea, as a military power, to establish links with NATO through arms support to Ukraine, writes Valdai Club expert Gu Ho Eom.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/why-is-the-u-s-seeking-to-involve-south-korea/
#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea
@valdai_club
๐ฐ๐ท In the wake of the Ukraine crisis, the existing world order and its principles, which have operated on the premise of US hegemony for the past 30 years, are being destroyed.
Although the outcome of the war is still unclear, some are paying attention to the possibility of a bipolar system forming, in which the US and China are each responsible for one axis due to Russiaโs loss of its power status, while some are focusing on the possibility of a multipolar system forming, led by the US, China, Russia, and several other powers together. Other experts also point to aspects of โinternational disorderโ.
The Ukraine crisis is a confrontation between the US and Russia to take the initiative in the world order. In other words, it is a military conflict between the US, which is trying to prevent the emergence of a hegemonic state in the post-Soviet region in order to maintain a unipolar system at the global level, and Russia, which is trying to become a hegemonic state in the post-Soviet region in order to help establish a multipolar system at the global level.
This crisis also poses new challenges for South Korea, which is thousands of kilometres away from the battlefield in Ukraine, writes Sung-Hoon Jeh.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/ukraine-crisis-and-south-korea/
#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea #UkraineCrisis
๐ฃ ๐ฃ ๐ฃ
Although the outcome of the war is still unclear, some are paying attention to the possibility of a bipolar system forming, in which the US and China are each responsible for one axis due to Russiaโs loss of its power status, while some are focusing on the possibility of a multipolar system forming, led by the US, China, Russia, and several other powers together. Other experts also point to aspects of โinternational disorderโ.
The Ukraine crisis is a confrontation between the US and Russia to take the initiative in the world order. In other words, it is a military conflict between the US, which is trying to prevent the emergence of a hegemonic state in the post-Soviet region in order to maintain a unipolar system at the global level, and Russia, which is trying to become a hegemonic state in the post-Soviet region in order to help establish a multipolar system at the global level.
This crisis also poses new challenges for South Korea, which is thousands of kilometres away from the battlefield in Ukraine, writes Sung-Hoon Jeh.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/ukraine-crisis-and-south-korea/
#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea #UkraineCrisis
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Ukraine Crisis and South Korea
The Ukraine crisis is a confrontation between the US and Russia to take the initiative in the world order. In other words, it is a military conflict between the US, which is trying to prevent the emergence of a hegemonic state in the post-Soviet region inโฆ
๐บ๐ธ๐ฏ๐ต๐ฐ๐ท The first ever trilateral summit of the three states was held on August 18th in the residence of the current US president in Camp David, became a real breakthrough in the long, but rather sluggish process of the formation of this military-political structure.
First of all, it must be emphasised that the meeting itself and its results are an obvious and resounding success of US diplomacy. Washington, with the same hard pressure as in Europe, where it prides itself on how quickly and effectively it mobilised and subordinated its NATO partners to a single allied will, is energetically โlining upโ its allies in East Asia as well.
One of the fundamentally important characteristics of the new pact was that, if earlier it was considered as a non-primary instrument intended exclusively for the Northeast Asian region with an eye on North Korea, now its main mission has become global and defined in ensuring the strategic tasks of the US allies throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The document โThe Spirit of Camp Davidโ states: โOur partnership is built not only for our peoples, but for the entire Indo-Pacific region.โ
So, Washington continues with indomitable energy to build a new global architecture of military-political alliances which are under its direct control, along the perimeter of the borders of Russia and China, uniting the security infrastructure from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean into a self-contained power infrastructure.
This summit became a real breakthrough in the long, but rather sluggish process of the formation of this military-political structure. There are indeed grounds for seeing a real transformation of the organisation previously described in terms of a โcoalition structureโ into a quasi-full-format military-political security pact, writes Alexander Vorontsov, Head of the Korea and Mongolia Department of the Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/reincarnation-of-the-usa-japan-south-korea-triangl/
#EconomicStatecraft #UnitedStates #Japan #SouthKorea #CampDavid #IndoPacific
๐ฃ ๐ฃ ๐ฃ
First of all, it must be emphasised that the meeting itself and its results are an obvious and resounding success of US diplomacy. Washington, with the same hard pressure as in Europe, where it prides itself on how quickly and effectively it mobilised and subordinated its NATO partners to a single allied will, is energetically โlining upโ its allies in East Asia as well.
One of the fundamentally important characteristics of the new pact was that, if earlier it was considered as a non-primary instrument intended exclusively for the Northeast Asian region with an eye on North Korea, now its main mission has become global and defined in ensuring the strategic tasks of the US allies throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The document โThe Spirit of Camp Davidโ states: โOur partnership is built not only for our peoples, but for the entire Indo-Pacific region.โ
So, Washington continues with indomitable energy to build a new global architecture of military-political alliances which are under its direct control, along the perimeter of the borders of Russia and China, uniting the security infrastructure from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean into a self-contained power infrastructure.
This summit became a real breakthrough in the long, but rather sluggish process of the formation of this military-political structure. There are indeed grounds for seeing a real transformation of the organisation previously described in terms of a โcoalition structureโ into a quasi-full-format military-political security pact, writes Alexander Vorontsov, Head of the Korea and Mongolia Department of the Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/reincarnation-of-the-usa-japan-south-korea-triangl/
#EconomicStatecraft #UnitedStates #Japan #SouthKorea #CampDavid #IndoPacific
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Reincarnation of the USA - Japan - South Korea Triangle
The main result of the summit, in our opinion, was a "great leap" in the implementation of the US strategy to create a unified military-political architecture from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean.
๐บ๐ธ๐ฏ๐ต๐ฐ๐ท The real purpose of a trilateral summit of the leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea at Camp David was was aimed at strengthening military-political cooperation among the three countries, directed primarily against China, but also, albeit to a lesser extent, against North Korea and Russia.
Both Japan and South Korea are tied to the United States with military-political alliances that were formally established in 1960 and 1954, respectively, and in actuality existed even before that. However, despite the reality and significance of the American-South Korean and American-Japanese alliances, they remain extremely difficult in many ways.
With the help of the trilateral format, Washington hopes to finally solve the problem that has been a headache for American diplomats for many decades: the long-standing conflict between Japan and South Korea and the chronic unwillingness of these two countries to cooperate directly with each other on military-political issues, Andrei Lankov writes.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/america-and-the-squabbles-of-its-east-asian-allies/
#ModernDiplomacy #UnitedStates #Japan #SouthKorea
๐ฃ ๐ฃ ๐ฃ
Both Japan and South Korea are tied to the United States with military-political alliances that were formally established in 1960 and 1954, respectively, and in actuality existed even before that. However, despite the reality and significance of the American-South Korean and American-Japanese alliances, they remain extremely difficult in many ways.
With the help of the trilateral format, Washington hopes to finally solve the problem that has been a headache for American diplomats for many decades: the long-standing conflict between Japan and South Korea and the chronic unwillingness of these two countries to cooperate directly with each other on military-political issues, Andrei Lankov writes.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/america-and-the-squabbles-of-its-east-asian-allies/
#ModernDiplomacy #UnitedStates #Japan #SouthKorea
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