🇦🇲🇦🇿🇷🇺 A year ago, on November 9, 2020, thanks to the peacekeeping intervention of Russia, the Second Karabakh War ended. 

The armed conflict in the South Caucasus did not lead to significant changes in Russia’s foreign policy considerations regarding the countries that took part in it. Unlike the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine and the preceding coup in Kiev, when the Ukrainian state actually lost its sovereignty, both Transcaucasian powers retained the ability to make foreign policy decisions relatively independently.

Of course, there has been some strengthening of cooperation between Baku and Ankara, and now the Azerbaijani authorities are forced to listen more closely to the interests of their Turkish partners. However, in the aftermath of the conflict, Azerbaijan did not become a base for the potential deployment of forces hostile to Russia in the event of possible war.

As for Armenia, the strengthening of Russian influence there also did not lead, as one could have feared, to a disproportionate increase in Russia’s obligations towards this country or the loss of its sovereignty.

The arrival of Russian peacekeeping forces in the South Caucasus has created conditions for a more active diplomatic involvement of Moscow in regional affairs, which also reduces the likelihood that Azerbaijan or Armenia will be significantly influenced by foreign powers with potentially hostile intentions regarding Russia’s basic interests and values.

In the event that Russia’s neighbours, as a result of interaction with each other, do not lose their sovereignty in a way that benefits the United States or China, any changes in the balance of power between them have no fundamental significance for Moscow, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

🔗 The Second Karabakh War: Lessons for Russia's Neighbours

#Global_Governance #NagornoKarabakh #geopolitics

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇮🇷🇦🇿🇦🇲 What are Iran’s perceptions of the border tensions between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia? And what issues have caused concern for Iran?

In his article, Dr. Vali Kaleji, a Tehran-based expert on Central Asia and Caucasian Studies, believes that informing Tehran of the results of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border commission, creating a complementary agreement to clarify Article 9 of the Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement for clarifying Zangezur corridor and continuing the meeting of 3 + 3 format can reduce Iran’s concerns about the border tensions between Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan and also help peace and stability in the South Caucasus.

🔗 Iran’s Perceptions and Concerns of Border Tensions Between Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan

#Conflict_and_Leadership #NagornoKarabakh #Iran

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇹🇷🇷🇺 In the era of globalization, where sovereign states have become much more interdependent  at the global, regional, and sub-regional levels, international conflicts have been influencing each other to a significantly greater extent. A plain example is the current Ukrainian crisis, which has been deeply affecting the Syrian and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts.

Under such vulnerable circumstances, Russian-Turkish relations have become highly dependent on diplomatic “battles” between Ankara and Moscow over retaining vs. enhancing influence in different regions, namely, in Syria and the South Caucasus.

The military conflict in Ukraine has shaken the balance of power in the South Caucasus. Facing increasingly hostile West-Russia relations, the region keeps turning into a new confrontation zone, while Azerbaijan and Armenia continue to navigate to secure their vital interests. Thus, it is very important which side Turkiye takes in this battle, write Igor Matveev and Yeghia Tashjian.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/from-syria-to-nagorno-karabakh-assessing-russian/

#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #NagornoKarabakh

@valdai_club

🇦🇲🇦🇿 It is very likely that international politics in the South Caucasus is now entering a new stage of development, characterised by the completion of the largest and most well-known regional conflict — in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The confrontation over the fate of this Armenian-populated region within Azerbaijan has been a central factor in all regional life for more than three decades.

In fact, it was the most important factor in the development of the two neighbouring states after they gained independence in 1991. It shaped their system of foreign policy interests, and determined the development of political systems, economic ties, and military organization.

Whether we like it or not, history practically does not know examples of a conflict centred on the ethnic and territorial issue being resolved to the mutual satisfaction of the opposing sides. Its outcome is always unfair, and the only question is whether the result of the accomplished injustice can be maintained for a sufficiently long period of time.

How sustainable is the likely solution remains to be seen, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-karabakh-problem-and-the-nature-of-internation/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #NagornoKarabakh #SouthCaucasus

@valdai_club