🇧🇷 The Brazilian elections of 2022 will be the most important since the process of redemocratization started after the end of the Civic-Military Dictatorship.
The traditional Brazilian political axis of the dispute between the center-left (PT) and the center-right represented by the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) almost three decades ago was changed to the competition between the center-left (PT) and the far-right led by the Liberal Social Party (PSL) of Jair Bolsonaro.
What is at stake is much more than the return of former President Lula to the Planalto Palace, is more like a referendum on his political role in recent years, writes Valdai Club expert Charles Pennaforte.
#Norms_and_Values #Brazil
@valdai_club
The traditional Brazilian political axis of the dispute between the center-left (PT) and the center-right represented by the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) almost three decades ago was changed to the competition between the center-left (PT) and the far-right led by the Liberal Social Party (PSL) of Jair Bolsonaro.
What is at stake is much more than the return of former President Lula to the Planalto Palace, is more like a referendum on his political role in recent years, writes Valdai Club expert Charles Pennaforte.
#Norms_and_Values #Brazil
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Brazil: Quo Vadis? Change of direction or maintaining international isolation?
What can Brazil and the international community expect from the outcome of its presidential election? There is a widespread consensus both in Brazil and abroad that Brazil has suffered great wear in its international image. In the last 30 years Brazil has…
📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On October 6 at 16:00 Moscow time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the presidential elections in Brazil.
On October 2, the first round of presidential elections took place in Brazil, which is already being called a decisive event for the entire political system of the country. The second round is scheduled for October 30.
The return of former Brazilian President Inacio Lula da Silva after a corruption scandal has significantly raised the stakes in the current presidential race. Prior to this, the current president of the country, Jair Bolsonaro, who is running for a second term, had no serious opponents.
Some experts say that Bolsonaro’s presidency has become a period of political and economic regression for Brazil. These sentiments were prompted by Bolsonaro’s unpopular decisions during the pandemic. However, Bolsonaro still retains popularity among Brazilians.
During Lula da Silva’s presidency (2003-2010), the government’s priorities were not only to eradicate hunger and reduce the number of poor people, but also to establish Brazil as one of the leaders of the Global South. Today, Lula is betting on these points again in his election campaign, which largely ensured his victory in the first round and participation in the second round of elections.
❓What do the results of the first round of elections testify to?
❓Which of the candidates will be able to win the elections and by what margin?
❓Should we expect the activation of Brazil in the international arena?
❓How will relations between Russia and Brazil change after the elections?
Participants of the expert discussion will answer these and other questions.
👥 Speakers:
🔹 Dmitry Razumovsky, PhD in Economics, Director of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences
🔹 Lyudmila Okuneva, Head of the Department of History and Politics of European and American Countries, Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences
🔹 Victor Jeifets, Professor of the Russian Academy of Sciences, director of the Center for Ibero-American Studies, St. Petersburg State University; Editor-in-Chief, “Latin America”
Moderator:
🚩 Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club
Working languages: Russian, English.
ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our website or call +79269307763.
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, Twitter, VKontakte, Telegram and Zen.
#Norms_and_Values #Brazil
@valdaiclub
On October 2, the first round of presidential elections took place in Brazil, which is already being called a decisive event for the entire political system of the country. The second round is scheduled for October 30.
The return of former Brazilian President Inacio Lula da Silva after a corruption scandal has significantly raised the stakes in the current presidential race. Prior to this, the current president of the country, Jair Bolsonaro, who is running for a second term, had no serious opponents.
Some experts say that Bolsonaro’s presidency has become a period of political and economic regression for Brazil. These sentiments were prompted by Bolsonaro’s unpopular decisions during the pandemic. However, Bolsonaro still retains popularity among Brazilians.
During Lula da Silva’s presidency (2003-2010), the government’s priorities were not only to eradicate hunger and reduce the number of poor people, but also to establish Brazil as one of the leaders of the Global South. Today, Lula is betting on these points again in his election campaign, which largely ensured his victory in the first round and participation in the second round of elections.
❓What do the results of the first round of elections testify to?
❓Which of the candidates will be able to win the elections and by what margin?
❓Should we expect the activation of Brazil in the international arena?
❓How will relations between Russia and Brazil change after the elections?
Participants of the expert discussion will answer these and other questions.
👥 Speakers:
🔹 Dmitry Razumovsky, PhD in Economics, Director of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences
🔹 Lyudmila Okuneva, Head of the Department of History and Politics of European and American Countries, Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences
🔹 Victor Jeifets, Professor of the Russian Academy of Sciences, director of the Center for Ibero-American Studies, St. Petersburg State University; Editor-in-Chief, “Latin America”
Moderator:
🚩 Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club
Working languages: Russian, English.
ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our website or call +79269307763.
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, Twitter, VKontakte, Telegram and Zen.
#Norms_and_Values #Brazil
@valdaiclub
Valdai Club
Valdai Club to Discuss the Presidential Elections in Brazil
On October 6 at 16:00 Moscow time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the presidential elections in Brazil.
⏰ TODAY at 16:00 Moscow time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the presidential elections in Brazil.
❓What do the results of the first round of elections testify to?
❓Which of the candidates will be able to win the elections and by what margin?
❓Should we expect the activation of Brazil in the international arena?
❓How will relations between Russia and Brazil change after the elections?
Participants of the expert discussion will answer these and other questions.
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, Twitter, VKontakte, Telegram and Zen.
#Norms_and_Values #Brazil
@valdaiclub
❓What do the results of the first round of elections testify to?
❓Which of the candidates will be able to win the elections and by what margin?
❓Should we expect the activation of Brazil in the international arena?
❓How will relations between Russia and Brazil change after the elections?
Participants of the expert discussion will answer these and other questions.
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, Twitter, VKontakte, Telegram and Zen.
#Norms_and_Values #Brazil
@valdaiclub
UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion is available via the same link. Stay tuned!
🎥 LIVE: at 16:00 Moscow time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the presidential elections in Brazil.
https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239034
#Norms_and_Values #Brazil
@valdaiclub
🎥 LIVE: at 16:00 Moscow time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the presidential elections in Brazil.
https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239034
#Norms_and_Values #Brazil
@valdaiclub
Vk
LIVE: The Presidential Elections in BrazIl. An Expert Discussion
On October 6 at 4:00 p.m. Moscow time, the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the presidential elections in Brazil. More: https://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/video/the-presidential-elections-in-brazil-an-expert-discussion/
🇧🇷 Brazil Before the Second Round: A Race of Promises
On October 6, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion on the presidential elections in Brazil.
The moderator was Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. According to him, the presidential elections underscored the actual split of the country into two parts. Former President Lula da Silva, the left-wing candidate, won 48 percent, while incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate, garnered 43 percent. At the end of the month, the second round of presidential elections will take place, and the question is: what should be expected from it, and how foreign policy and domestic policy will change if one or another candidate wins.
💬 Lyudmila Okuneva, Head of the Department of History and Politics of European and American Countries at MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, described in detail the current political balance and the course of the election campaign in Brazil. She stressed that Bolsonaro received many more votes than sociologists predicted, although Brazilian sociology has a lot of experience and usually makes successful predictions. The results of the rivals are very close, the difference between them is only five percent — and the current president may well make up for it in a month. Now there is a sharp struggle for a new electorate, which, according to Okuneva, has given rise to a “race of promises.” The parties actively play for each other’s bases. In fact, what is happening looks like a clash not only between two leaders with two personalities, but also between two models of the country’s development, the researcher believes.
💬 Dmitry Razumovsky, Director of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that the election campaign was notable for its phenomenal scandalousness. Predicting the possible results of the victory of one or another candidate, he pointed out that Bolsonaro’s programme is much more clearly defined and in fact implies a simple continuation of his course. Despite his ambiguous reputation, he has generally achieved success in the economy. Meanwhile, Lula da Silva has built his campaign mainly around opposing Bolsonaro, so it is rather difficult to say what specific steps he will take.
💬 Victor Jeifets, Director of the Centre for Iberoamerican Studies at St Petersburg University, believes that no matter which of the two rivals wins the Brazilian elections, the results of the upcoming US Congress elections in November will seriously affect its foreign policy. “Brazil makes its own decisions, but it makes them in context,” he stressed. If the Republicans win a majority, Biden’s position will be weakened, giving the winner in Brazil a chance to play on different fronts. At the same time, the policy of any of the presidential candidates is unlikely to be complex. The former clear orientation of Lula towards cooperation along the South-South line and opposition to the collective West and Bolsonaro’s clear orientation towards rapprochement with the United States will now most likely not happen. Also, according to Jeifetz, the topic of BRICS is important for both Lula and Bolsonaro in these elections as one of the tools to pull Brazil out of the economic crisis.
#Brazil
@valdai_club
On October 6, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion on the presidential elections in Brazil.
The moderator was Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. According to him, the presidential elections underscored the actual split of the country into two parts. Former President Lula da Silva, the left-wing candidate, won 48 percent, while incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate, garnered 43 percent. At the end of the month, the second round of presidential elections will take place, and the question is: what should be expected from it, and how foreign policy and domestic policy will change if one or another candidate wins.
💬 Lyudmila Okuneva, Head of the Department of History and Politics of European and American Countries at MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, described in detail the current political balance and the course of the election campaign in Brazil. She stressed that Bolsonaro received many more votes than sociologists predicted, although Brazilian sociology has a lot of experience and usually makes successful predictions. The results of the rivals are very close, the difference between them is only five percent — and the current president may well make up for it in a month. Now there is a sharp struggle for a new electorate, which, according to Okuneva, has given rise to a “race of promises.” The parties actively play for each other’s bases. In fact, what is happening looks like a clash not only between two leaders with two personalities, but also between two models of the country’s development, the researcher believes.
💬 Dmitry Razumovsky, Director of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that the election campaign was notable for its phenomenal scandalousness. Predicting the possible results of the victory of one or another candidate, he pointed out that Bolsonaro’s programme is much more clearly defined and in fact implies a simple continuation of his course. Despite his ambiguous reputation, he has generally achieved success in the economy. Meanwhile, Lula da Silva has built his campaign mainly around opposing Bolsonaro, so it is rather difficult to say what specific steps he will take.
💬 Victor Jeifets, Director of the Centre for Iberoamerican Studies at St Petersburg University, believes that no matter which of the two rivals wins the Brazilian elections, the results of the upcoming US Congress elections in November will seriously affect its foreign policy. “Brazil makes its own decisions, but it makes them in context,” he stressed. If the Republicans win a majority, Biden’s position will be weakened, giving the winner in Brazil a chance to play on different fronts. At the same time, the policy of any of the presidential candidates is unlikely to be complex. The former clear orientation of Lula towards cooperation along the South-South line and opposition to the collective West and Bolsonaro’s clear orientation towards rapprochement with the United States will now most likely not happen. Also, according to Jeifetz, the topic of BRICS is important for both Lula and Bolsonaro in these elections as one of the tools to pull Brazil out of the economic crisis.
#Brazil
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Brazil Before the Second Round: A Race of Promises
On October 6, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion on the presidential elections in Brazil. The moderator was Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. He noted that the presidential elections underscored the actual split of the…
🇧🇷 The focus of the world’s attention is on the presidential elections in Brazil.
After all, the question ‘who will be president of Brazil’ is by no means an idle one. It concerns the country's further development, the direction of its foreign policy, its positioning in the international arena in the light of Brazil's upcoming G20 chairmanship in 2024, the country's role in the UN and especially in its Security Council, where in 2022-2023 Brazil remains as a non-permanent member.
The main struggle flared up between the two main rivals, who expectedly made it to the second round – the right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and the leftist Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, the country' ex-president (2003-2010).
The current race is conspicuous for having the shortest official campaign in the history of democratic elections (46 days) and the longest time gap between two rounds (28 days, usually three weeks). Analysts dubbed this period “a 28-day night”, hinting at the unpredictability of the outcome of this “night”.
The results of the 2nd round are unpredictable, but whoever becomes the winner will be a world-class leader, who will have to respond to the complex and acute challenges of the disturbing modern world, writes Valdai Club expert Lyudmila Okuneva. Lyudmila is the participant of the expert discussion on the Brazil elections held by Valdai Discussion Club on October, 6. Watch the video of the discussion here — https://go.sv/LvZpg7
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/results-of-the-1st-round-of-the-general-elections/
#Norms_and_Values #Brazil #Bolsonaro #LuladaSilva
@valdai_club
After all, the question ‘who will be president of Brazil’ is by no means an idle one. It concerns the country's further development, the direction of its foreign policy, its positioning in the international arena in the light of Brazil's upcoming G20 chairmanship in 2024, the country's role in the UN and especially in its Security Council, where in 2022-2023 Brazil remains as a non-permanent member.
The main struggle flared up between the two main rivals, who expectedly made it to the second round – the right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and the leftist Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, the country' ex-president (2003-2010).
The current race is conspicuous for having the shortest official campaign in the history of democratic elections (46 days) and the longest time gap between two rounds (28 days, usually three weeks). Analysts dubbed this period “a 28-day night”, hinting at the unpredictability of the outcome of this “night”.
The results of the 2nd round are unpredictable, but whoever becomes the winner will be a world-class leader, who will have to respond to the complex and acute challenges of the disturbing modern world, writes Valdai Club expert Lyudmila Okuneva. Lyudmila is the participant of the expert discussion on the Brazil elections held by Valdai Discussion Club on October, 6. Watch the video of the discussion here — https://go.sv/LvZpg7
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/results-of-the-1st-round-of-the-general-elections/
#Norms_and_Values #Brazil #Bolsonaro #LuladaSilva
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Results of the First Round of the General Elections in Brazil: What's Next?
On October 2, the 1st round of general elections took place in Brazil: Brazilians voted to choose the president, the entire lower house of parliament, a third of the senate and many governors. However, the focus of the world’s attention, without exaggeration…
🇧🇷🇷🇺 Relations between Brazil and Russia have historically been marked by periods of estrangement and rapprochement.
The US and its influence in Latin America has been a constant element in the relationship between the two countries. Hence, the nature of the relationship (rapprochement or distancing) between Moscow and Brasilia is a direct reflection of the political and ideological changes in the diplomatic landscape.
The current government of Jair Bolsonaro illustrates this trend. During the first years of Bolsonaro's administration, it leaned towards the United States; an automatic alignment with Washington's policymakers during Trump’s tenure. During this period, Brazil became a major non-NATO US ally and dismantled the main regional integration projects of previous governments, submitting Brazilian regional leadership to the Organisation of American States (OAS).
Brazil's pragmatism and regional leadership during the Lula administration were responsible for laying the foundations for a strategic relationship between Brazil and Russia.
Moscow’s position becomes even more relevant in the current context of Western sanctions against Russia, and Brazil must play an important role that can benefit both countries. For these reasons, Russia is not interested in a weakened Brazil, subordinated to the US. The Kremlin recognises Brazil as an important partner of Russia in Latin America and seeks to give Brazil a position as an indispensable ally in the design of the multipolar world.
The future of Brazil-Russia relations is also conditional upon the Russian ability to deal with the Western pressure that the new term of Lula da Silva will be subjected to, in addition to the Western diplomatic inability in building fruitful interlocution with Brasilia, writes Valdai Club expert Boris Perius Zabolotsky.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/brazil-and-russia-what-can-russia-expect-from/
#Norms_and_Values #Brazil #Lula #Bolsonaro
@valdai_club
The US and its influence in Latin America has been a constant element in the relationship between the two countries. Hence, the nature of the relationship (rapprochement or distancing) between Moscow and Brasilia is a direct reflection of the political and ideological changes in the diplomatic landscape.
The current government of Jair Bolsonaro illustrates this trend. During the first years of Bolsonaro's administration, it leaned towards the United States; an automatic alignment with Washington's policymakers during Trump’s tenure. During this period, Brazil became a major non-NATO US ally and dismantled the main regional integration projects of previous governments, submitting Brazilian regional leadership to the Organisation of American States (OAS).
Brazil's pragmatism and regional leadership during the Lula administration were responsible for laying the foundations for a strategic relationship between Brazil and Russia.
Moscow’s position becomes even more relevant in the current context of Western sanctions against Russia, and Brazil must play an important role that can benefit both countries. For these reasons, Russia is not interested in a weakened Brazil, subordinated to the US. The Kremlin recognises Brazil as an important partner of Russia in Latin America and seeks to give Brazil a position as an indispensable ally in the design of the multipolar world.
The future of Brazil-Russia relations is also conditional upon the Russian ability to deal with the Western pressure that the new term of Lula da Silva will be subjected to, in addition to the Western diplomatic inability in building fruitful interlocution with Brasilia, writes Valdai Club expert Boris Perius Zabolotsky.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/brazil-and-russia-what-can-russia-expect-from/
#Norms_and_Values #Brazil #Lula #Bolsonaro
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Brazil and Russia: What Can Russia Expect from the New Government of Lula da Silva?
Never before in the history of Brazil has the country faced such striking political polarisation and violence. These features could be a reflection of a country that has lost relevance in recent years and now needs to seek international insertion in an increasingly…
💸 Brazil and China have recently struck a multi-billion-dollar currency swap agreement which is expected to fuel de-dollarization in the United States’ near abroad, Latin America.
It is just one major piece of evidence of the ever-growing geopolitical and geo-economic importance played by the Western Hemisphere in the context of great power competition.
However, it is essential to calm enthusiasm and maintain objectivity. The US dollar might look like the walking dead, but it is still walking and will walk for a long time.
In a growingly multipolar world, where the United States is slowly ceasing to be the primary pole of power, it is not strange, but absolutely normal and physiological, to witness a worldwide process of reserve currency diversification, writes Valdai Club expert Emanuel Pietrobon.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-day-after-the-dollar/
#ModernDiplomacy #dollar #currency #Brazil #China #yuan
@valdai_club
It is just one major piece of evidence of the ever-growing geopolitical and geo-economic importance played by the Western Hemisphere in the context of great power competition.
However, it is essential to calm enthusiasm and maintain objectivity. The US dollar might look like the walking dead, but it is still walking and will walk for a long time.
In a growingly multipolar world, where the United States is slowly ceasing to be the primary pole of power, it is not strange, but absolutely normal and physiological, to witness a worldwide process of reserve currency diversification, writes Valdai Club expert Emanuel Pietrobon.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-day-after-the-dollar/
#ModernDiplomacy #dollar #currency #Brazil #China #yuan
@valdai_club
🇧🇷 Brazil has been cautious regarding the expansion of BRICS.
The country fears that the dilution of power among new members could negatively affect its influence in the process of transforming the structure of international governance.
As it is well-known, Brazil sees obtaining a permanent seat at the UN Security Council as one of its strategic foreign policy goals and does not want to have other competitors inside BRICS.
The option for disengagement from BRICS is gaining adherents among Brazilian diplomats and is being actively promoted by sectors of Brazilian organized civil society, especially those NGOs and think tanks that receive financial support from European and American institutions.
The engagement of these sectors in the G20 events during Brazil’s Presidency of 2024 and the lack of interest in the BRICS process during Russia’s Presidency in the BRICS in the same year is another sign of alertness, writes Fabiano Mielniczuk.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/at-the-crossroads-brazil-in-the-face-of-brics/
#WiderEurasia #Brazil #BRICS
🗣 🗣 🗣
The country fears that the dilution of power among new members could negatively affect its influence in the process of transforming the structure of international governance.
As it is well-known, Brazil sees obtaining a permanent seat at the UN Security Council as one of its strategic foreign policy goals and does not want to have other competitors inside BRICS.
The option for disengagement from BRICS is gaining adherents among Brazilian diplomats and is being actively promoted by sectors of Brazilian organized civil society, especially those NGOs and think tanks that receive financial support from European and American institutions.
The engagement of these sectors in the G20 events during Brazil’s Presidency of 2024 and the lack of interest in the BRICS process during Russia’s Presidency in the BRICS in the same year is another sign of alertness, writes Fabiano Mielniczuk.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/at-the-crossroads-brazil-in-the-face-of-brics/
#WiderEurasia #Brazil #BRICS
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