📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On August 16 at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host a discussion on the topic “Sanctions Against Russia – From Here to Eternity?”

Over the past 500 years in history, there have been many cases of various economic restrictions against Russia. Another such period began in 2012, when the US Congress passed the “Magnitsky Act”. After Crimea’s reunification with Russia and the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, there has been a significant escalation of anti-Russian sanctions by the US, EU and other countries of the “collective West”. Since February 2022, they have been using almost all known instruments of unilateral restrictive measures against Russia.

Despite economic pressure, the Russian economy and financial system have maintained stability. The sanctions were unable to influence Moscow’s political course. At the same time, many economic ties between Russia and Western countries were severed or distorted under the influence of sanctions. Both Russian and foreign businesses suffered damage.

Historical experience and current developments suggest that restrictive measures against Russia may remain on the agenda for decades. The Ukrainian crisis is still far from being resolved. However, the resolution of political conflicts in itself does not lead to a sustainable lifting or easing of sanctions.

❓How long will the sanctions war last? 
❓What are the prospects for increasing pressure on Russia and its partners? 
❓What coercive measures and secondary sanctions could there be in the future? 
❓How can they be resisted in today’s conditions? 

The discussion participants will address these and other questions.  

🎙️ Speakers: 

🇷🇺 Dmitry Birichevsky, Director of the Department of Economic Cooperation of the Russian Foreign Ministry @MFARussia

🇷🇺 Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean of the Faculty of World Politics and Economics, HSE

🇳🇴 Glenn Diesen, Professor, University of South-Eastern Norway

🇷🇺 Sergey Glandin, Partner at the BGP Litigation, Attorney  

Moderator:

🗣 Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-sanctions-against-russia/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen.

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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♟️ One of the key challenges facing the initiators of economic sanctions is in creating a coalition of countries willing to implement the restrictive measures.

A common thesis in the research literature is that the presence of such a coalition enhances the effectiveness of sanctions pressure — the more countries support sanctions, the more difficult it is to circumvent them.

The emergence of “black knights”, that is, states that deliberately torpedo sanctions regimes, however, can significantly devalue the imposed sanctions.

A big problem for the initiators of sanctions has been third countries that maintain distance from the confrontation with Russia. Thus, while British experts state that sanctions complicate the functioning of the Russian military-industrial complex and the economy as a whole, they maintain that they do not interfere with the resolution of political problems, including the conflict in Ukraine; the circumvention of sanctions through third countries is one of the reasons.

Numerous tactics to circumvent sanctions in the form of supplies through third countries are still hardly the most serious problem for the West.

A much more serious challenge is Moscow’s consistent policy of building transaction mechanisms independent of the Western financial infrastructure, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/without-black-knights-do-third-countries/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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🛤️ The opening of the 37-km railway of the Rasht-Caspian project near the southern part of the Caspian Sea on June 20, 2024 is an important development in the cycle of “multimodal transportation” and “combined transport” (CT) in the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

It could play a very important role in “multimodal transportation” and Combined Transport (CT) by sea, land and rail in the INSTC.

🔹 The speed of passenger trains, according to this plan, is 120 km/h and the speed of freight trains is 80 km/h.
🔹 It is expected that three million tonnes of cargo and 300 thousand passengers will be moved in the first year of operation.
🔹 It is also expected that eventually the amount of cargo that will be moved along this line will reach seven million tonnes and the number of passengers will reach 600,000 people.

The primary purpose of the Rasht-Caspian Railway is to enhance connectivity and facilitate transportation and trade links in Iran, the Caspian Sea littoral states, as well as with the railway network southward, Vali Kaleji writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-rasht-caspian-railway/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Iran #CaspianSea

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🇹🇷🌏 Over the past years, Turkey has been successfully fostering unity among Turkic-speaking peoples, and receiving economic and political dividends.

The Central Asian states gained independence more than thirty years ago and the region has largely remained outside the field of vision of the Western powers, which recognise it as being within Russia’s sphere of influence. However, this region has great mineral resources and infrastructure potential, which makes it a testing ground for diplomatic battles involving new political players.

Obviously, now it is the perfect time to redistribute spheres of influence in this region, because Russia is busy addressing the Ukraine crisis, and the majority of the population of Central Asia is a generation that grew up after the fall of the Soviet Union and is free of its cultural influence. Thanks to this, Turkey has an undeniable advantage there, which it certainly uses.

By promoting the idea of a shared past helps to establish relationships in completely different areas, Turkey is penetrating into the areas of defence, energy and culture, becoming a real counterweight to Russia, Anna Machina writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkish-challenge/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Turkey #CentralAsia

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🇮🇷 On July 5, 2024, Masoud Pezeshkian was elected as the 14th President of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

During the presidential champions, he emphasized that he would try to remove the economic sanctions through interaction with the West, recovering Iranians economic livelihood and welfare.

He also published an article in Tehran Times daily on July 13 entitled, “My Message to the New World” defining his core foreign policy objective as to create “balance” in relations with all countries. In the same article, he emphasized that his administration will prioritize strengthening relations with Iran’s neighbors, increased relations with Russia and China, and interacting with the West from an equal political angle. 

A careful reading of the Iranian new president’s political positions demonstrates that he is seeking for an “accommodation” in foreign policy through constructing a political consensus in the domestic politics, bridging the reformist and conservative forces, Kayhan Barzegar writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/in-search-for-an-accommodation-iran-s-foreign/

#WiderEurasia #Iran #MasoudPezeshkian #MiddleEast

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🇺🇸🇨🇳 China has firmly integrated into the American-centric model of globalisation, but unlike most other countries, it has been able to maintain its sovereignty and prevent the United States from influencing its domestic political processes.

China's economic rise has led to the strengthening of its technological, industrial, and military capabilities. Sooner or later, such growth was bound to become a problem for the United States. The presidency of Donald Trump in 2016-2020 was a period when a visible shift occurred in American policy towards China. 

Trump changed the approach to China both at the doctrinal level and at the level of practical policy. In doctrinal terms, Trump exacerbated all the comments that were previously made about the PRC in a cautious and delicate manner: China is an authoritarian country with a communist regime that has little in common with American values. The rise of the PRC is a problem and a challenge for the United States. China's overseas projects, such as the Belt and Road project, are a means of economic expansion for the Celestial Empire that must be contained.

The Biden administration was much more restrained in its anti-Chinese rhetoric. However, it did not change the structure of sanctions pressure on China. The problems that generated the sanctions were not resolved.

In the end, both Trump and Harris, if they win, will continue the course of containing China. However, Trump's performance will be more aggressive and assertive, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/trump-or-harris-does-it-matter-for-china/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #UnitedStates #China #Trump #Harris

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📆 TOMORROW, August 16, at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host a discussion on the topic “Sanctions Against Russia – From Here to Eternity?”

❓How long will the sanctions war last? 
❓What are the prospects for increasing pressure on Russia and its partners? 
❓What coercive measures and secondary sanctions could there be in the future? 
❓How can they be resisted in today’s conditions? 

The discussion participants will address these and other questions.

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen.

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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🎥 LIVE: at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), we are starting a discussion on the topic “Sanctions Against Russia – From Here to Eternity?”

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239203

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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🗣 On August 16, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted a discussion on the topic “Sanctions Against Russia – From Here to Eternity?”

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 Video

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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🇷🇺 History for Decades: The Present and Future of Sanctions Against Russia

On August 16, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, “Sanctions against Russia – from here to eternity?” Moderator Ivan Timofeev noted that despite the legal possibility of lifting unilateral restrictive measures, the reasons for their introduction against Russia remain and are getting worse. Accordingly, he added, Russia will probably live under sanctions for decades.

💬 Dmitry Birichevsky, Director of the Department of Economic Cooperation of the Russian Foreign Ministry, emphasised that the West, in its geopolitical confrontation with Russia, is trying to use interdependence in global relations as a weapon, and these illegal measures generate destructive consequences for all parties and limit the rights of states to sovereign independent development. However, no matter how difficult they are for many industries, they ultimately force Russia to restructure the entire economy and create high-value-added products within the country. Birichevsky also noted the importance of cooperation with the Global South and integration in the Greater Eurasia space against this backdrop. 

💬 Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean of the Faculty of World Politics and Economics at HSE, believes that the West will primarily improve mechanisms for oversight in the area of compliance with sanctions. The result will be a constant search for dynamic solutions and alternative ways to circumvent restrictions - a kind of eternal game of "sanctions cat and mouse". She believes that the second important factor is pressure on countries friendly to Russia in industries in which the right to work with Russia was not specifically stipulated. For Russia in this context, it will be important to expand the range and develop and complicate cooperation mechanisms, rather than increase trade turnover as such. All this, according to Likhacheva, means that it is no longer possible to be guided by the imperative of cost efficiency and that it is necessary to constantly maintain a balance between a sustainability strategy and a development strategy based on flexibility. 

💬 Glenn Diesen, a professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway, believes that in the long term, the effectiveness of sanctions will decrease significantly, because the world is moving towards multipolarity, and the dependence of other countries on the West is decreasing. It can be assumed that the sanctions will continue to intensify, but this will make it even more difficult to convince the rest of the world, which trusts the West less and less, to comply with them. “I believe that the international system led by the US is slowly disintegrating,” Diesen concluded. “Of course, we need a new economic system with reliable supply chains, reliable transport corridors, and reliable banks.” In this regard, he sees a great future for BRICS. 

💬 Sergey Glandin, Partner at the BGP Litigation, Attorney, spoke about judicial practice in cases of lifting sanctions in the US and EU, and also considered the terminology of the case and the issue of the legitimacy of unilateral sanctions, emphasising that Russia does not recognise any sanctions imposed in circumvention of the UN Security Council as legitimate. Speaking about the prospects, he suggested that if Donald Trump is elected US President, lifting some of the sanctions will be theoretically possible, since American presidents often cancel their predecessors' decrees on sanctions - the law does not require such decisions to be coordinated with Congress. As for the EU, according to the Treaty on European Union, "restrictive measures" are introduced, lifted and extended unanimously.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/history-for-decades-the-present-and-future-of-sanctions-against-russia/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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🌐 What determines the ability of the states to cooperate?

NATO is an old military alliance created in the very first years of the Cold War, while the SCO is a young association that appeared only 10 years after its end.

NATO has a powerful infrastructure for collective military planning, rich traditions and serious executive discipline, while the SCO is an amorphous organisation with a rather weak secretariat, the absence of binding decisions and the inability to talk about any discipline in principle.

NATO brings together 32 countries around one leader; its military and economic capabilities significantly exceed all others. There is no and cannot be a leader in the SCO: it includes countries which are comparable in scale such as India, Russia and China, but the others are not ready to subordinate their policies to the will of the largest countries in the association.

The main thing in which both international organisations differ is their purpose. The central mission of NATO is to preserve the internal political inviolability of the ruling regimes in the participating countries.

The SCO's task is a dialogue on a wide range of issues of international security and cooperation, but it in no way ensures that the ruling circles of the member countries can feel calm about their own future, writes Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/sco-nato-and-the-fate-of-international-cooperation/

📍 This article is the first part of reflections on the future of international cooperation.

#WiderEurasia #SCO #NATO

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🇮🇳 On June 9, Mr. Narendra Modi was sworn in as India’s Prime Minister for a third term in a grand ceremony at the presidential palace in Delhi.

At 73, Mr. Modi became only the second leader in the country’s history to win a third term, following in the footsteps of its first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term balances continuity and change in India's foreign policy, emphasising strategic autonomy, regional stability, and deeper engagement with the Global South.

His "Neighbourhood First" policy, complex relations with China and Pakistan, and strengthened ties with Russia underscore India's commitment to a multipolar vision and a significant role in global governance, writes Rupal Mishra.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/charting-india-s-foreign-policy-course-challenges-/

🗣 The author is a participant of the Valdai - New Generation project.

#WiderEurasia #India #NarendraModi #Valdai_NewGeneration

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