🗣 On January 24, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion on the environmental agenda and the results of the COP28 climate conference in Dubai.

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 If you missed the live broadcast of the discussion, watch the video via this link.

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🌱 2023 was a year of climate records around the world. There are risks of extreme weather conditions. By the end of this century, between a third and half of the world’s population — three to six billion people — could be pushed beyond the “livable zones”.

We created an infographic on consequences of climate change in 2023. The full infographic is available on the website.

#valdai_infogaphics #ClimateChange

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🏭 COP28: Towards a Just Energy Transition?

On January 24, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion on the environmental agenda and the results of the COP28 climate conference in Dubai. The moderator was Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Club.

💬 Igor Makarov, head of the Department of World Economy and Head of the Laboratory for the Economics of Climate Change at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, who participated in COP28, called the issue of abandoning fossil fuels “the main drama of the conference.” The main result, in his opinion, is that it was possible to reach a compromise, called the “UAE consensus”. This compromise consists, firstly, in the fact that the parties agreed on softer language, providing for a “movement away” from fossil fuels instead of a “total rejection”. Second, a clause recognizing the role of “transition fuels” in facilitating the energy transition was added to the text of the final document. What exactly we are talking about is not explained, but traditionally such fuel means gas. Third, the final formulations mentioned a variety of channels for reducing emissions, which fully reflects the principle of technological neutrality promoted by Russia. Fourth, the final document emphasizes that the fight against climate change and the move towards carbon neutrality must be carried out in an equitable and fair manner. This would allow poorer countries to link emissions reduction targets to international aid.

💬 Yakov Kuzyakov, head of the departments of forest soil science and agro-soil science at the University of Göttingen (Germany), noted that although the transition to renewable sources will occur, there are some areas of both industry and transport where it is impossible. A completely fair solution in this area is also impossible — the economic interests of different countries are too different, and a quick and easy replacement of energy sources with alternative ones is hardly feasible. Speaking about the absorption of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by artificial and natural ecosystems, Kuzyakov noted the importance in this process of plantations that are intensively used for timber production. Overall, he suggested that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere will continue to rise in the coming decades and, accordingly, temperatures will rise.

💬 Francine Mestrum, president of the NGO Global Social Justice and member of the board of the Belgian CETRI (Centre Tricontinental), dedicated her speech to the political conflict in Western Europe between farmers protesting government climate measures that threaten their usual way of life, and the environmental movement. Far right forces that deny climate change are on the farmers’ side. Against this background, the standard policies of progressive and green parties, accustomed to calling on voters to give up their usual comfort for the sake of a better future, turn out to be ineffective. In today’s Europe, no one is ready to make sacrifices without compensation.

💬 Elena Maslova, senior researcher at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO University under the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and senior researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, raised the question of how the fight against climate change is managed. Although a kind of “green consensus” was formed in the world, claiming the status of a moral and ethical imperative, and no one doubts that climate change is an ontological threat, countries independently choose their approaches and their own paths to achieve climate neutrality. During the summit in Dubai, an attempt was made to shake this status quo and develop a unified paradigm.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/cop28-towards-a-just-energy-transition/

#GlobalAlternatives #COP28 #climate #ClimateChange

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⏰ TODAY at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3) the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the escalation in Yemen and the Red Sea.

❓How will the escalation in Yemen and the Red Sea affect global trade?
❓Does it threaten regional security?
❓What was the role of Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands in preparing the airstrikes?
❓How can forces supporting the Houthis respond to attacks by the United States and Britain?
❓How can Russia influence the resolution of the crisis?

Participants in the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

Links to the live broadcast of the open sessions will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VKontakte, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Yemen #RedSea #MiddleEast #Houthi

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UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion is available via the same link. Stay tuned!

🎥 LIVE: at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3) the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the escalation in Yemen and the Red Sea.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239160

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Yemen #RedSea #MiddleEast #Houthi

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🗣 On January 26, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion on the escalation in Yemen and the Red Sea.

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 If you missed the live broadcast of the discussion, watch the video via this link.

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⚔️🌏 This crisis is a test of the quality of the strategy of all participants: everyone entered this crisis with their initial understanding of what the world looks like, how it works and where history is going.

The United States truly believes that foreign policy is part of its domestic policy.

Moreover, every American foreign policy strategy is one component of the country’s internal struggles; American self-absorption greatly unnerves their near and far allies and creates uncertainty in the development of the situation.

Ukraine is a convenient, rather cheap tool for weakening and containing Russia, as well as forcing the European allies to embrace discipline and obedience, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/ukraine-in-the-hands-of-the-united-states-tool/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #UnitedStates #Ukraine #WorldOrder

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⚔️🌍 'Iranian Axis' or 'Axis of Resistance'?

On January 26, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion on the escalation in Yemen and the Red Sea. Moderator Andrey Sushentsov invited participants to discuss possible developments in the region, the potential role of Russia, and the conditions for the re-stabilisation of regional security.

💬 Andrey Baklanov, Deputy Chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats, Head of the Middle East and North African Studies Section at the Higher School of Economics, noted that the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East is likely to be protracted, with low- or medium-intensity hostilities. In his opinion, none of the participants, no matter what statements they make and no matter what goals they officially declare, wants a big military conflict in the Red Sea, which does not negate other methods of confrontation - from rhetoric to bombing. Trade will continue, but logistics costs will rise. Egypt is likely to suffer the most from this. Speaking about the diplomatic dimension of what is happening, Baklanov pointed out that the United States rejects proposals to involve Russian diplomats in the settlement process in the format of a Quartet of international mediators or in any other format.

💬 Kobi Michael, Senior Research Fellow at the National Security Institute in Tel Aviv and Senior Research Fellow at the Misgav Institute, provided an Israeli perspective on what is happening. He called for the conflict with the Houthis not to be separated from the overall picture of a regional war with global consequences. The origins, in his opinion, are various “proxies” of Iran. He sees what is happening in the Middle East as the result of the activities of a certain “Iranian axis”, supported by Russia and China, which are striving to create a new world order and resist American hegemony. The Middle East is important to America's adversaries, because undermining US interests in this region affects the situation in other regions. The very fact that the Houthis, with the support of Iran, were able to influence one of the most important transport routes in the world presents a challenge to the United States and some of its key allies.

💬 Kayhan Barzegar, Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Science and Research Branch of the Islamic Azad University in Tehran, rejected the existence of a connection between Hamas, Iran and Yemen. The Houthis and Hamas, he said, constitute a kind of “axis of resistance” whose activities are directed against external interference in the affairs of the region. Barzegar argues that they are not Iranian “proxies”, but independent actors who, despite having certain ties to Iran, act in accordance with their own logic. He considers the escalation in the Red Sea a direct consequence of the war in the Gaza Strip, which radicalized the Arab world, and the long-term neglect of the Palestinian issue by the world community. The political scientist emphasized that the regional conflict cannot be resolved through war and that it is necessary to deal with the roots of the situation. An agreement on a truce and a ceasefire are needed, he pointed out.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/iranian-axis-or-axis-of-resistance/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Yemen #RedSea #MiddleEast #Houthi

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🌏 Northeast Asia: How Far Can Confrontation Go?

Recently, increasingly alarming news has been coming from Northeast Asia. The situation on the Korean Peninsula is escalating again — Pyongyang and Seoul are exchanging threatening statements and demonstrating their determination in every possible way, including the firing of artillery in the sea in the immediate vicinity of the demarcation line. 

Konstantin Khudoley, professor at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, believes that while the situation on the Korean Peninsula may be approaching the boiling point, it is unlikely that either side will cross the proverbial red line and spark another military conflict near the borders of the Russian Federation.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/northeast-asia-how-far-can-confrontation/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Asia #KoreanPenisula

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🗺️ BRICS – is a platform for partnership between states whose interests coincide in the following areas: politics, economics and security.

BRICS in 2024 unites 45% of the earth's land mass, 46% of the world's population, 47% of World GDP. Watch our video infographic to find out more about BRICS in 2024.

#valdai_infogaphics #BRICS

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