🌏 Turan, Iran, Russia and China are the core around which the economic development of the non-European world will be built.

Today, as the BRICS association is becoming one of the most dynamically expanding economic conglomerates of states in the world, it is obvious that the trend of economic growth is shifting towards non-European countries. 

The question remains: is it possible to do without Europe? Here it is important to immediately outline the boundaries of what kind of Europe we are talking about - Europe as part of the Euro-Atlantic bloc, claiming world hegemony. The answer to the question is not so obvious; it requires a deep look into the future.

The fact is that in the case of Eurasian integration based on BRICS, SCO, ECO and with the participation of North Korea, a relatively coherent paradigm of regional relations is obtained. Its success will, over time, push Europe toward cooperation, most likely on more equal terms than it currently has.

These circumstances necessitate, first and foremost, the need for the Eurasian world to overcome Europe’s claims to hegemony. A strong Eurasian economic bloc cannot go unnoticed and without being involved in the world economy.

The Greater Eurasian Partnership will take on new contours in the near future, write Kubatbek Rakhimov and Alexey Mikhalev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/between-iran-and-turan-or-new-horizons-of-the-grea/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Iran #Russia #China #Eurasia #BRICS

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UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion is available via the same link. Stay tuned!

🎥 LIVE: at 13:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on aggravation of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239143

#Norms_and_Values #Israel #Palestine #Gaza

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📷 On October 11, 2023, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion on aggravation of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Photo gallery of the discussion is available in this album.

The video of the discussion is available via this link.

Stay tuned!

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🇮🇱🇵🇸 The Aggravation of the Arab-Israeli Conflict as a Lesson for the Whole World

On October 11, the Valdai Club held a discussion dedicated to the aggravation of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

💬 The moderator was Oleg Barabanov, programme director of the Club, who noted that the escalation of the conflict was unexpected for everyone, including the expert community. Against this background, the topic of a civilisational conflict has again become relevant, one which cannot be resolved by any political efforts and which is likely to continue to manifest itself.

💬 Anatoly Viktorov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the State of Israel, pointed out that, despite all its unexpectedness, what is happening seems in some sense a natural consequence of the destructive, short-sighted and self-interested policies of Western countries. Instead of finding compromises acceptable to both sides, they have actually attempted to monopolise the settlement, blocking the work of mechanisms and initiatives aimed at breaking the vicious circle of violence.

💬 A view from Israel was presented by Zach Battat, a junior researcher at the Middle East and Central Asia Research Centre. He suggested that this round of violence would last a long time because, from Israel's point of view, a "red line" had been crossed. Now in Israel, both politicians and the general population seek to liquidate Hamas at any cost: the country has shifted heavily to the right of the political spectrum. Public opinion perceives what is happening as a war, which means a serious threat of escalation.

💬 Amal Abou Zeid, Adviser to the President of Lebanon, Member of the Lebanese Parliament from the Free Patriotic Movement (2016–2018), said that recent events have shown the fragility of the situation in terms of security, and called for new agreements that take into account the interests of all parties involved, including economic factors.

💬 Daniel Levy, president of the US/Middle East Project (USMEP) analysed the origins of the current situation. He sees one of the reasons for the crisis in the halt of the diplomatic process amid the feeling that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict ended in defeat for the Palestinians. As a result, violence became the only option left for them. Levy believes that when the dust settles, Israel will need to find a way to engage with the Palestinians in a new way and create some kind of incentive system for them. In addition, Palestinian political renewal and a complete modernisation of the architecture of the peace process will be required.

💬 Andrei Baklanov, Deputy Chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats, and head of the section for studies of the Middle East and North Africa at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, called the current escalation a completely expected result of the apparent external calm, given the completely unresolved Palestinian issue and the passivity of the international community. “This is a big lesson for both specialists and the international community,” he added.

💬 Vitaly Naumkin, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences and scientific director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out the harmful role of US attempts to monopolise the peace process and oust Russia from it. He emphasised that there are much more radical organisations in the Palestinian movement than Hamas, and that if Israel succeeds in destroying Hamas, they will be the ones who will “take up the banner.” This state of affairs will continue to persist as Palestinians feel their most basic national rights denied.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/the-aggravation-of-the-arab-israeli-conflict-as-a-lesson-for-the-whole-world/

#Norms_and_Values #Israel #Palestine #Gaza

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🇪🇺 The economic consequences of sanctions for Europe are already far-reaching.

🔹 EU countries are not able to compensate for the economic losses caused by sanctions against the Russian Federation.

🔹 First of all, this concerns the energy and raw materials sectors. The huge increase in prices for these resources is causing serious damage to the industry. European industry is increasingly falling behind global competition.

🔹 With the introduction of sanctions against Russia, the process of deindustrialisation of Europe is accelerating.

🔹 This combination of inflation and recession is leading to an economic crisis in Europe that will continue for many years.

This will result in a permanent loss of wealth for Western societies, writes Ulrike Reisner, freelance political analyst, lecturer & journalist, based in Vienna, Austria, PICREADI expert.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/losses-due-to-sanctions-grow-in-the-west/

#EconomicStatecraft #EU #sanctions

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🌏 The United States prefers not to swing the “sanctions baton” in Central Asia.

During the year, only a few companies were subjected to restrictions. None of the major local players were affected by the restrictions. Washington fears that more radical measures could embitter local elites and reduce Western influence in the region.

The conflict between the West and Russia, as well as the degradation of the system of international relations, have given the countries of Central Asia a chance to rethink their role in the world, build new relationships with each other and push for the economic development of the region, writes Grigory Mikhailov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/central-asia-competition-or-cooperation/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #CentralAsia #Eurasia #sanctions

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📆ANNOUNCEMENT: On October 18 at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will present its new report titled “Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies.”

The conflict in Ukraine has become the largest one in terms of casualties, the number of troops involved and duration since the Iran-Iraq War of 1980–1988. However, the difference is that the fighting in Ukraine is the result of contradictions between the world’s largest nuclear powers: Russia and the United States. The mere presence of nuclear weapons in their respective arsenals sets up a different framework for the war.

The authors of the report cite the Korean War as the closest historical precedent. The tactics of warfare and the military equipment used were different, but from a political standpoint, the conflict in Korea is similar to the one in Ukraine. As in Korea, the struggle in Ukraine began during a period of restructuring in the system of international relations, and is being fought for the right to influence the future world order. 

The report’s authors believe that the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces lacked warfare skills early in the conflict, but over the course of a year and a half, both armies have transformed. The experience gained during wars against a weaker enemy turned out to be not only useless, but harmful in the context of the Ukrainian conflict. Its role in the modern development of military tactics has been obviated, according to the authors of the report, by the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 and subsequent clashes.

❓What are the current trends in the development of weapons and methods of warfare?
❓How do hostilities affect the Russian economy and society?
❓What role do information technology and the media play in the confrontation?
❓How will the Ukrainian conflict affect China’s policy and strategic planning?

Participants in the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

🎙️ Speakers:

🇷🇺 Evgeny Buzhinsky, Lieutenant-General (Retired), Ph.D. Military Sciences, Chairman of PIR Center

🇷🇺 Vasily Kashin, co-author of the report, Director at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, HSE University

🇸🇪 Gregory Simons, independent expert (Sweden)

🇷🇺 Dmitry Stefanovich @stratdela, researcher at the Centre for International Security, IMEMO RAS

Moderator:

🗣 Andrey Sushentsov, co-author of the report, program director of the Valdai International Discussion Club, dean of the Faculty of International Relations at MGIMO Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-warfare-in-a-new-epoch/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: To be accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our website. If you have any questions about the event, call +7 926 930 77 63.

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VKontakte, Telegram and Dzen.

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🇮🇱 It can be expected that the Israeli economy, in the event of a protracted confrontation with Hamas, will face difficulties that were generally characteristic earlier, during the period of the Al-Aqsa intifada.

By the end of the second quarter of 2023, protest activity and the delayed consequences of the pandemic had revealed a number of problems that could be layered on top of the typical difficulties for the Israeli economy during the escalation periods in the Middle East conflict.

However, there are also what could be called “anchors of stability”, that enable the state to cope with current challenges, albeit not without losses, writes Elizaveta Yakimova.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-economics-of-conflict-the-impact-of-the-war/

#EconomicStatecraft #Israel #economy

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🏆 The annual Nobel Prize award ceremony attracts the wider attention of world public opinion to science and literature for a week.

Every time the chances are discussed, and bets are even placed with bookmakers. Then everything calms down — until the next year.

For Russia, both within officialdom and outside it, this is sometimes accompanied by nervous anticipation of who will be elected this time and how it will affect the domestic political agenda, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Oleg Barabanov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/nobel-prizes-and-russia/

#Norms_and_Values #NobelPrize

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⚔️ The redistribution of power and influence in the world, along with the shifting power dynamics among major nations, has become the catalyst for extremely acute differences between them.

As these differences intensify, they engulf ideology, the economy, and scientific-technical and humanitarian ties. Factors that used to prevent major powers from escalation in the past are weakening. These countries are now facing a real threat of large-scale non-nuclear conflicts against comparable adversaries, for the first time since the 1960s.

The prevailing form of conflict between great powers will be proxy wars of a new type, namely, large conflicts in which a major nuclear power grants its client access to its information capabilities (satellite reconnaissance and targeting, communication infrastructure, etc.), as well as military technology and expertise, and, if necessary, carries out limited direct intervention in the conflict where it will not provoke nuclear escalation.

However, the threat of a direct military clash between great powers and nuclear war will persist and, perhaps, become even more acute than during the Cold War.

The key goal of diplomacy in this new world will be to develop a toolkit that will make it possible to endure decades of turbulence without nuclear bombardment. This can only be achieved within the framework of rigorous foreign policy realism, write the authors of a new Valdai Report, titled “Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies.”

https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/warfare-in-a-new-epoch-the-return-of-big-armies/

🎥 The presentation of the report took place on October 18. Watch the video recording on our website.

#ModernDiplomacy #valdai_report #ProxyWar #warfare #WorldOrder

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🧨 Several crises in the post-World War II period had the real potential of escalating into a full-fledged, protracted war, possibly followed by nuclear escalation. Both the Korean War and the armed conflict in Ukraine are conflicts over the future of the world order.

Especially for the new Valdai Report, titled “Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies,” we created an infographic on major wars and conflicts in the post-World War II period. The full infographic is available on the website.

#valdai_infogaphics #war #MilitaryConflict

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🗺️ In the new international environment, geopolitics is increasingly beginning to determine the structure of economic interaction in the world.

We are inside a large long-term political cycle that will last in different countries, political circles and national elites. There are estimates that the current geopolitical crisis will last at least several years: in open American sources, the top officials have specified a period of 6-7 years. This sets a certain predictability for the development of events, although it does not make the situation simpler.

Just a year ago, business circles in different countries found it difficult to come to terms with the fact that geopolitics now determines the global economy. We have seen energetic attempts to unite industrialists and entrepreneurs in European countries to challenge the political vector that their government has chosen.

In Germany we observed clear public disagreement with this course on the part of individual leaders of particular states, who are interested in interaction with Russia. However, this has not affected the general strategic vector of the German government, which runs counter to the opinion of the country’s own businesses; many believe this is suicidal for the German economy.

The United States feels comfortable in the current prolonged crisis. An extremely important American goal is to eliminate any impulses of autonomy on the European continent, which are expected mostly from the countries of Western Europe.

However, non-Western states, with interests which are different from those of Europe and the United States, are ready to come up with their own ideas about how this crisis should be resolved, writes Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/who-is-better-prepared-for-a-long-geopolitical/

#ModernDiplomacy #geopolitics #WorldOrder

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UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion is available via the same link. Stay tuned!

🎥 LIVE: at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will present its new report titled “Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies.”

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239144

#ModernDiplomacy #valdai_report #ProxyWar #warfare #WorldOrder

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📷 On October 18, 2023, the Valdai Club presented its new report titled “Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies.”

Photo gallery of the discussion is available in this album.

The video of the discussion is available via this link.

Stay tuned!

🗣🗣🗣

⚔️ Brave Old World: Wars and Historical Normality Without Rose-Coloured Spectacles

On October 18, the Valdai Club presented a report, titled “Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies”. 

💬 The moderator was Andrey Sushentsov, programme director of the Club. He emphasised that the conflict in Ukraine refutes a concept that had prevailed for a long time, according to which modern warfare is a war with small forces, adding that it demonstrates the relevance of large military units. “War remains the same phenomenon that we have observed for centuries. The dominant view in recent years was an illusion,” he concluded.

💬 Co-author of the report Vasily Kashin, Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, noted that the events in Ukraine illustrate that conflicts involving states are becoming larger in scale, pursuing more decisive goals and demonstrating the readiness of all players to make sacrifices that for a long time were considered impossible. This is due to the changing balance of power in the world. External crises are accompanied by internal ones. As a result, conflicts are escalating around the world. According to him, the big countries will have to return to the basics of military-economic planning that were generally accepted in the second half of the 19th and first half of the 20th centuries.

💬 Lieutenant general (ret.) Evgeniy Buzhinsky, Chairman of the PIR Center Council, pointed out that when in the 2000s Russia suspended the CFE Treaty due to its inconsistency with modern realities, and the process of understanding the new situation began, the expert community spoke not about the scale and duration of conflicts, but about new categories of weapons. Tank battles and artillery duels in Europe seemed unthinkable. “The Ukrainian conflict has shown: the tanks are back, the artillery is back,” he said. According to Buzhinsky, in the next wars, whatever they may be, all current means of armed struggle will remain, but on a qualitatively new level.

💬 Gregory Simons, an independent expert from Sweden, drew parallels between the conflict in Ukraine and the Iran-Iraq war. In his opinion, Iraq was not a subject, but an object in the war and was forced to rely entirely on American support. Similarly, Ukraine is now not a subject, but an object against the backdrop of US attempts to block the movement towards a multipolar world. American politicians, ignoring the media rhetoric about moral confrontation, quite frankly say that they perceive this conflict as a means to wear Russia down.

💬 Dmitry Stefanovich @stratdela, a researcher at the Centre for International Security at IMEMO RAS, noted that the role of external support is important both in the current conflicts and in future conflicts. If this support is not stopped in one way or another, then the conflict can become extremely long-lasting. He also pointed to the high level of transparency in modern conflicts and the enormous amount of available data. However, how much this data helps one get the real picture is not clear: the data is too easy to manipulate. It is even difficult to say how to measure the potentials of the parties at war. In addition, Stefanovich raised the possibility of long-term support for the defence industry and big armies.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/brave-old-world-wars-and-historical-normality-without-rose-coloured-spectacles/

#ModernDiplomacy #valdai_report #ProxyWar #warfare #WorldOrder

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🗣 On October 16–17, 2023, the Valdai Discussion Club and the Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies (ISMI) under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan held a conference in Khiva, Uzbekistan on the topic “Russia and Uzbekistan: Common Challenges and New Solutions”.

The participants discussed issues on the bilateral agenda of Russian-Uzbek relations in the context of growing interdependence.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/russia-and-uzbekistan-common-challenges-and-new-solutions-an-expert-discussion/

#Valdai_ThinkTank #valdaiclub #Uzbekistan

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