🎥 LIVE: Session 5 of the Valdai Club 12th Middle East Conference, titled “The Age of Sovereignty: Key Middle Eastern Countries’ Foreign Policy Priorities,” will start at 12:30 p.m. Moscow time.

Live broadcast in English.

Live broadcast in Arabic.

Live broadcast in Russian.

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📷 Session 5 of the Valdai Club 12th Middle East Conference, titled “The Age of Sovereignty: Key Middle Eastern Countries’ Foreign Policy Priorities”

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The video of the session is available via this link.

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🌍 Russia and the Middle East in the Context of the Global Reshuffle of Forces

On Tuesday, February 28, the 12th Middle East Conference of the Valdai Club opened in Moscow. Its theme is "The New Middle East and the Security Crisis in Europe: Effects of Mutual Influence".

The conference is being attended by about 50 leading experts on the region, current politicians and intellectuals from 18 countries, including Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Iran, China, Kuwait, Lebanon, UAE, Palestine, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkiye.

At the beginning of the conference, Mikhail Bogdanov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, read Sergey Lavrov's greeting message to the participants. In turn, session moderator Vitaly Naumkin, scientific director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, recalled Russia's proposal to create an inclusive security system in the Middle East and invited the speakers to share their views on the on-going reshuffle of forces in the region.

The second, closed-door session of the conference was devoted to the consequences of the Ukrainian crisis for the Middle East. The leitmotif of the discussion was the thesis that the United States had failed to attract anyone to the anti-Russian coalition, except for those who are already subject to binding relations with Washington. The matter is not about supporting Russia, but about the unwillingness of the countries of the Global South to follow the instructions of the United States.

During the third session, the prospects for the North-South transport corridor were discussed: how transport routes have changed amid a crisis situation, and what opportunities appear for new logistics projects on the continent.

Read more about the sessions: https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/russia-and-the-middle-east-in-the-context-of-the-global-reshuffle-of-forces/

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🌍 Every crisis carries with it an opportunity for a solution. This current US crisis in managing the world we live in today, with the chaos it has generated in Europe and the Middle East, has presented a clear opportunity.

This opportunity has manifested in the distancing of all the main forces from US dominance and the emergence of a new trend to reshape their regional system in a more independent and balanced way, writes Amal Abu Zeid, Lebanese presidential adviser, especially for the 12th Middle East Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-middle-east-and-security-crisis-in-europe/

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⛽️ OPEC+ is an expanded format of OPEC, formed in November 2016, which includes 10 more countries led by Russia (14% of world oil production) to regulate the oil market. OPEC+ controls 55% of the world's oil supplies and 90% of proven reserves.

OPEC+ countries in October 2022 reduced the quota for oil production by 2 million barrels per day and extended the deal until 2023.

Especially for the Valdai Club 12th Middle East Conference, we prepared an infographic on OPEC+. The high-res infographic is available on the website.

#mideastvaldai #valdai_infographics #OPEC #oil

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🇹🇷🇷🇺 Turkey’s multi-dimensional foreign policy exercises of late have given rise to endless speculations and contradictions across the world and in particular in the West.

It is epitomized by the Turkish President’s meetings with his Russian, Ukrainian and Iranian counterparts as well as his meetings with his Western partners, including Biden.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict Ankara has been pursuing a noticeably restrained and well-balanced policy without taking part in the western sanctions but at the same time keeping up its relations with its western partners closely.

Having rid itself of almost all its Middle-Eastern entanglements, which have cost Ankara an arm and a leg over the last decade or so, Turkey now stands to benefit from the opportunities accruing from a multipolar world order, something that it has become an unstoppable reality, however much the US and the Collective West are still trying to prevent it, but to no avail.

Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia does not seem to be circumstantial. It is true that, as its relations with the West and particularly the US are going through tough times Ankara turns to Russia for more cooperation but it is also true that Ankara would remain on this mutually beneficial track more firmly at a time of multipolarity just as it always sought good relations with the Soviet Union in the inter-war period, particularly in the 1920s and 30s, writes Hasan Ünal, Professor at Maltepe University, Istanbul.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkish-russian-rapprochement-imultipolar-world/

📌 This article was prepared for the 12th Middle East conference of the Valdai Discussion Club.

#mideastvaldai #MiddleEast #Turkey #multipilarity

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🌍 The Middle East: Finding a New Agency

On Wednesday, March 1st, the 12th Middle East Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club ended. During the final day of the conference, the participants discussed the most important trends in the energy sector and the foreign policy priorities of the key countries in the Middle East.

Speakers of the session “Key Energy Trends: OPEC+, Russia’s Role, Reformatting the Global Market” discussed the future of the oil deal, as well as answered the question why the countries of the Middle East do not seek to replace Russian suppliers in Western European markets, but enter into schemes to help Russia sell its oil.

The last session of the conference was devoted to the growing agency of the countries of the Middle East and their foreign policy priorities. 

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/the-middle-east-finding-a-new-agency/

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🇷🇺🇮🇷 The sharp aggravation of Russia’s relations with the Western countries after the start of the Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine and the strengthening of Western sanctions pressure on Russia, have radically changed the international geopolitical landscape and given a serious impetus to the rapprochement between Moscow and Tehran. Iran has been under tough Western sanctions for more than 40 years, and is subjected to constant military and political threats.

Today the West, primarily the United States and its European allies, are making active efforts to inflict a military and geopolitical defeat on Russia, plunge it into a deep economic crisis, and isolate it in the international arena.

Iran is in a similar situation of increasing military-political and economic pressure from the West. The United States, which has not been able to overcome the syndrome of impotence and hostility towards Iran which has defined Washington’s approach since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, continues to impose new sanctions against Iran in an effort to further aggravate the social-economic crisis in this country. Washington won’t go to compromise in order to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem (JCPOA); it threatens to use military force if Tehran approaches the so-called “nuclear threshold” in the development of its nuclear programme.

Under these conditions, Moscow and Tehran, within the framework of the proclaimed “pivot to the East”, have actively begun to strengthen ties and cooperation with states that have not succumbed to American domination and want to develop friendly relations with the Russian Federation and Iran.

The emerging geopolitical realities create objective prerequisites for rapprochement between Moscow and Tehran, for the activation and expansion of cooperation in the military-political, trade, economic, scientific, technical and other fields, in order to neutralize the consequences of military threats and sanctions pressure from the West, as well as its attempts to isolate Russia and Iran and prevent the formation of a new world order, writes Valdai Club expert Alexander Maryasov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russian-iranian-relations-amid-a-new-geopolitical-/

#ModernDiplomacy #mideastvaldai #Iran

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💧🌍 Water Scarcity in the Middle East
 
The Middle East and North Africa occupy about 15% of the Earth’s land area,  about 5% of the world’s inhabitants live there. The region has less than 1% of the world’s renewable water resources.

By 2050, the population of the region will increase by 57% and reach 770 million people. Water supplies will be reduced to critical 500 m3 per person.

📌 The video infographic is prepared for the Valdai Club 12th Middle East Conference.

#mideastvaldai #valdai_infographics #WaterScarcity #MiddleEast #NorthAfrica #MENA

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🌍 Polycentricity carries with it enormous risks, especially for a region like the Middle East.

📍 On the one hand, without external control and dominant external forces, new regional problems and lines of confrontation will appear.

📍 On the other hand, without American involvement in regional affairs, some long-standing crises will no longer be fuelled from outside, and their dynamics will no longer be vital for the countries of the region.

Therefore, old contradictions may soften, and countries will look for new ground for cooperation.

The region remains one of the most important centres of concentration of Russia’s efforts to pivot to the East. Moscow sees this as a strengthening of its strategic autonomy and a way to maintain its foreign policy initiative in a changing world.

The crisis of the unipolar order in Europe shows Russia’s policy towards the countries of the East and South in a new light — for Moscow, these areas are now becoming major nodes of foreign policy activity.

Moreover, Russian-Western economic relations are now largely mediated by the countries of the East — the Arab states, Turkey, and the countries of Central Asia.

For Russia, this is a chance to strengthen its influence and expand its circle of partners, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/impact-of-the-european-crisis-on-the-middle-east/

#ModernDiplomacy #mideastvaldai #MiddleEast

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🇲🇳 Mongolia is the only country in Northeast Asia that has practically no significant disputes or disagreements with any states.

Due to the specifics of its geographical location, its main partners are Russia and China. Ulaanbaatar also highly appreciates the potential for the formation of a multipolar world, free from conflict. Probably, the current geopolitical conditions may both give a new impetus to the development of the country, and, on the contrary, initiate chaos in domestic and foreign policy.

The West seems to be exerting more influence on Mongolian society in order to initiate domestic political instability and sabotage Russian and Chinese projects. However, strong traditions of state governance, reliance on national interests, and reliable neighbours should help Ulaanbaatar to withstand any crisis, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia-china-and-mongolia-at-the-centre/

#EconomicStatecraft #Mongolia

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⛔️ On the anniversary of the start of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, a group of Western countries imposed new massive economic sanctions against Russia.

The introduction of new sanctions was announced long before the anniversary of the SMO. During the year of hostilities in Ukraine, such a significant volume of restrictive measures had been introduced against Russia that the possibilities for its expansion seemed exhausted.

Nevertheless, the new restrictions can be considered a fairly significant escalation of the economic war against Moscow. They are unlikely to lead to economic shocks, but they will increase costs, hinder industrial modernisation, and create additional problems for business, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/sanctions-on-the-anniversary-of-special-operation/

#EconomicStatecraft #sanctions

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🇷🇺🇮🇱 Russian–Israeli relations are formally a little over thirty years old but, in fact, date back to May 17, 1948 – three days after Israel gained its independence. 

🔹 The Soviet Union, the Russian Federation’s predecessor, was the first country to recognize the State of Israel.

🔹 It is imperative that Israel cooperates with Russia because Israel’s national security passes through Moscow.

Hopefully, neither establishment pushes their respective leadership to the extreme, whether in bilateral relations or in the geopolitical arena, because working together will keep Israel, the Middle East, Russia, and the international community safe, writes Zach Battat, Junior Researcher at the Middle East & Central Asia Research Center.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russian-israeli-relations-and-the-ukrainian-crisis/

📌 The article was prepared for the Valdai Club 12th Middle East Conference.

#ModernDiplomacy #mideastvaldai #mideastvaldai

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🧊🌐 Sir Halford Mackinder was right: the Earth has a heart and it is located in the World-Island, that is, Eurasia.

However, he was wrong about something, although it’s true that he could never have forecast climate change: the true Heartland doesn’t lie in the very centre of Eurasia, it lies in the once-hostile Arctic, which is now increasingly warmer and more hospitable to human life.

The Arctic is where a mammoth amount of strategic natural resources are hidden, from hydrocarbons to rare earth metals, which is set to be untapped and to be fully exploited as the temperature grows and the ice melts.

The repercussions of a forbidden-turned-livable Arctic in world affairs will be as deep as they are ever-lasting.

If willing, the world’s three major powers – the United States, China and Russia – still have time to face this inevitably forthcoming change by choosing cooperation over competition, writes Valdai Club expert Emanuel Pietrobon.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-arctic-eurasia-s-final-pivot/

#EconomicStatecraft #Arctic #Eurasia #geopolitics

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🌐 All existing theories of international relations were created in a very simple world.

Powers now representing such a variety of political civilizations have now entered a world arena that one cannot rely on, including a systematic understanding of the nature of relations between them. 

It is, of course, useful to create, for example, a Russian theory of international relations amid such conditions.

1️⃣ First, it will somewhat reduce our dependence on Western concepts, which is extremely good in itself.

2️⃣ Second, moving along this path will allow one to understand yourself a little more. This is especially important for Russia, since awareness of self-worth for our political culture is much more important than external recognition.

However, in terms of being able to understand international politics in general, we still will not get very far – we will just become the authors of another original view.

Americans are trying to pretend that the return of hegemony over the world will solve their internal development problems. However, this approach causes concern in principle, since moving forward while looking behind you is liable to lead to a fall.

Russia is also in search of a state where it can feel self-worth, and the conflict with the West is, in addition to eliminating military-political imbalances, the basis for a better understanding of itself, outlining the image of the future in conditions where it is no longer possible to continue life in the old way, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/should-we-claim-we-truly-understand-international/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #WorldOrder

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🇨🇳 The political tradition of the People’s Republic of China (a state founded in 1949 as a result of the communists’ victory in the civil war) is a complex mix of three basic components: the thousand-year heritage of Chinese civilisation, Soviet prescriptions, as well as the Chinese communists’ own experience, gained during the years of the struggle for power.

However, there are more factors that influence China’s modern foreign policy, some of which contradict each other.

1️⃣ First, this is an internal idea of China as a great civilisation, which should be a regional leader and one of the centres of the world order – and not because of strength, but because of higher civilizational achievements.

2️⃣ Second, the historical memory of the traditions of ethnocentrism, vassal-tributary relations with neighbours and the possibility of the peaceful co-development of a large number of countries in a Chinese-centric economic and cultural system, as it was quite recently, in the Middle Ages and at the dawn of modern times.

3️⃣ No less important is the third factor, associated with the sentiment of revanchism, which goes back to the idea of the civilizational crisis of the 19th and 20th centuries as a period of external pressure on China. Regarding the restoration of China’s civilizational power, the “great revitalisation of the Chinese nation” (中华民族伟大的振兴), about which Xi Jinping talks so much appears to be the only fair outcome. At the same time, a number of unresolved problems with neighbours (territorial, historical memory, etc.) fuel these moods of revanchism, which objectively frighten external observers.

No one will argue with the fact that China is an important political player on the world stage and a significant factor in the development of international relations. The days when analysts talked about the “rise of China” as a forecast are long gone. China has already risen, writes Valdai Club expert Ivan Zuenko.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/does-china-have-a-foreign-policy-ideology/

#ModernDiplomacy #China

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🇨🇳 The political tradition of the People’s Republic of China (a state founded in 1949 as a result of the communists’ victory in the civil war) is a complex mix of three basic components: the thousand-year heritage of Chinese civilisation, Soviet prescriptions, as well as the Chinese communists’ own experience, gained during the years of the struggle for power.

However, there are more factors that influence China’s modern foreign policy, some of which contradict each other.

1️⃣ First, this is an internal idea of China as a great civilisation, which should be a regional leader and one of the centres of the world order – and not because of strength, but because of higher civilizational achievements.

2️⃣ Second, the historical memory of the traditions of ethnocentrism, vassal-tributary relations with neighbours and the possibility of the peaceful co-development of a large number of countries in a Chinese-centric economic and cultural system, as it was quite recently, in the Middle Ages and at the dawn of modern times.

3️⃣ No less important is the third factor, associated with the sentiment of revanchism, which goes back to the idea of the civilizational crisis of the 19th and 20th centuries as a period of external pressure on China. Regarding the restoration of China’s civilizational power, the “great revitalisation of the Chinese nation” (中华民族伟大的振兴), about which Xi Jinping talks so much appears to be the only fair outcome. At the same time, a number of unresolved problems with neighbours (territorial, historical memory, etc.) fuel these moods of revanchism, which objectively frighten external observers.

No one will argue with the fact that China is an important political player on the world stage and a significant factor in the development of international relations. The days when analysts talked about the “rise of China” as a forecast are long gone. China has already risen, writes Valdai Club expert Ivan Zuenko.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/does-china-have-a-foreign-policy-ideology/

#ModernDiplomacy #China

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🌍🇷🇺 Migration from African countries to Russia is still insignificant in scale and its main channel is educational migration.

In 2022, according to the official estimates of the Main Department of Migration Affairs of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia and the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, 38,885 Africans were legally staying in Russia. 34,360 Africans studied in Russia, the largest contingents are from:

🇪🇬 Egypt (15,668 people)
🇲🇦 Morocco (3,438 people)
🇳🇬 Nigeria (1,754 people)
🇩🇿 Algeria (1,458 people)
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe (1,262 people)

Migrants from Africa who have settled in Russia and received Russian citizenship are hardly noticeable and are not even represented in the political arena.

At the same time, migration from Africa to the countries of the European Union, including undocumented migration, is permanent and sustainable. In the Eurasian migration system, however, where Russia is the main host country, the African vector is still almost invisible.

Russia is not yet connected with African countries via a full-fledged migration network. Nevertheless, the countries of Africa are witnessing explosive growth, despite the fact that we are only observing migration from those countries to Russia on a minimal scale. Because of the increasing competition for resources on this continent and growing risks of economic and political instability, forced migration flows from Africa to Russia may become a new component of the migration situation already in the medium term.

It is worthwhile to prepare for this in advance, writes Valdai Club expert Dmitry Poletaev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/african-migration-to-russia-what-changes/

#Norms_and_Values #Africa #migration

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🇮🇳🌐 The theme of India’s G20 Presidency is Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, which means “One Earth, One Family, One Future”. 

India, during its G20 Presidency, has positioned itself as the voice of the Global South and has tried to raise issues which are pertinent to the region. 

However, the deep global division over the Russia-Ukraine crisis dominated the conversation in its finance ministers’ and foreign ministers’ meetings, held during February and March 2023 in New Delhi. However, India has maintained a neutral stance on the crisis and has tried to play a vital role in bridging differences between the West and Russia.

India’s G20 Presidency is also seen as an opportunity for India’s ruling political party to showcase its achievements and diplomatic reach ahead of India’s 2024 general election. The expectation is that India’s G20 Presidency will serve as a big banner in Prime Minister Modi’s election campaign.

India’s efforts to play a leadership role in global affairs reflect its desire to be seen as a major player on the world stage. As a member of the G20 and a rising power in Asia, India has the potential to influence global decision-making on a wide range of issues. However, as the recent G20 meetings demonstrated, achieving consensus on contentious issues can be difficult, and global divisions are likely to persist for the foreseeable future, writes Valdai Club expert Nivedita Das Kundu.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/india-s-g20-presidency-expectations/

#Norms_and_Values #India #G20

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🇹🇷🇷🇺 In the era of globalization, where sovereign states have become much more interdependent  at the global, regional, and sub-regional levels, international conflicts have been influencing each other to a significantly greater extent. A plain example is the current Ukrainian crisis, which has been deeply affecting the Syrian and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts.

Under such vulnerable circumstances, Russian-Turkish relations have become highly dependent on diplomatic “battles” between Ankara and Moscow over retaining vs. enhancing influence in different regions, namely, in Syria and the South Caucasus.

The military conflict in Ukraine has shaken the balance of power in the South Caucasus. Facing increasingly hostile West-Russia relations, the region keeps turning into a new confrontation zone, while Azerbaijan and Armenia continue to navigate to secure their vital interests. Thus, it is very important which side Turkiye takes in this battle, write Igor Matveev and Yeghia Tashjian.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/from-syria-to-nagorno-karabakh-assessing-russian/

#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #NagornoKarabakh

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