🇷🇺🌏 What place relations with Asia will occupy for Russia in the coming years?

1️⃣ First, relations with China and, especially, other Asian states are still no way to resolve problems of an existential nature. Trade and economic relations in the East, in the face of attempts at a partial blockade by the West, solve the problem of maintaining the Russian presence in the world economy, despite the United States and its allies attempting to erase it from this global system of connections.

2️⃣ Second, Russia will have to solve the key tasks of national development on its own, without relying on external sources of technology, not to mention finances. The coming era will require states to have a much greater degree of de facto sovereignty and, in a sense, a capacity for limited autarky. Therefore, for all the importance of ties outside the West, Russia cannot simply reorient itself from one direction to another while maintaining its historically-formed strategy of dependence on external sources of development.

3️⃣ Third, it must be taken into account that even the most active ties in Asia cannot supplant relations with the states of the Islamic world, neighbouring countries and, in fact, Europe, where not everyone is inclined to build walls on their eastern border. The geopolitical position of Russia cannot be changed simply because of a military-political conflict.

Summing up, we can say that amid modern conditions, relations with the Asian countries are indeed becoming not a choice, but a necessity, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

#Asia_and_Eurasia #geopolitics

@valdai_club

🇨🇳 The new stage of Chinese policy towards Taiwan will most likely be characterised by the more active use of military instruments of pressure on the island.

China has been able to build a powerful infrastructure for economic influence on Taiwan, becoming a key trade and industrial partner for the island. Hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese live and do business in the mainland.

But the PRC has been unable to convert this economic influence and human connections into real political influence in Taiwan. Since the return of the Democratic Progressive Party to power in the 2016 elections, the situation in relations with China has steadily deteriorated.

From the point of view of the PRC, an extremely alarming, unbearable situation has developed on the Taiwan issue: there is a simultaneous increase in separatist sentiments inside the island, an increase  of American military assistance to the island, and an accelerated erosion of the One China policy by the United States. The answer was the mobilisation of the resources of the Chinese state to resolve the Taiwan issue in a short time period, if necessary, with the use of force.

With a formal commitment to a peaceful solution to the problem, the real possibilities for “peaceful reunification” are narrowing, writes Valdai Club expert Vasily Kashin.

#ModernDiplomacy #China #Taiwan

@valdai_club

📆 #EEF2022: the Valdai Discussion Club will take part in the Eastern Economic Forum for the sixth time tomorrow.

On Tuesday, September 6, we will run two events within the framework of the business programme of EEF:

🔷 At 10:00 local time (GMT+10), we will hold a session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations”.

🔷 At 12:30 (GMT+10), the Valdai Club will present a report at EEF-2022, titled “Russia-China Strategic Partnership in the Context of the Crisis in Europe”.

Stay tuned!

@valdai_club

🌏 The 21st century is the century of the Far East.

🎯 In 2021, half of the world’s population was in the Far East.

🎯 Half of the top 20 countries by population are from the Far East: China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam.

🎯 The Far East Economic Circle accounts for 40% of the global GDP and contributes more than 50% of the global economic growth.

🎯 Between 2015 and 2030, the consumption of the world’s middle class is expected to increase by 30 trillion U.S. dollar, with Europe accounting for only 1 trillion U.S. dollar, and more than a half is from the Far East.

The most urgent task now is to correct the past stereotype of “Far East = remoteness + marginalization”.

We need to regard it as the hope for future development, and strive to promote the integration of the Russian Far East into the Greater Far East, that is, the process of East Asian economic integration, writes Wang Wen, Executive Dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies (RDCY), Renmin University of China. 

📌 The article was prepared in advance of the Valdai Sessions as part of the Eastern Economic Forum 2022.

#Asia_and_Eurasia #EEF #EEF2022 #FarEast

@valdai_club

🌐 Gorbachev forever remained the image of perestroika and glasnost.

For some in Russia, Gorbachev was the one who betrayed the interests of the Soviet Union, weakening its power and setting the stage for the humanitarian catastrophe that struck the millions of Russians left after 1991 to live in former Soviet republics subject to new national sentiments at the local level.

For others, he was a man who prevented even worse things from happening and knew how to overcome the rigid limitations of an ideology, writes Valdai Club expert Stefano Pilotto.

#Norms_and_Values #Gorbachev

@valdai_club

🎥 LIVE: at 10:00 local time (GMT+10), the Valdai Club session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations”, will start within the framework of the business programme of the Eastern Economic Forum.

#EEF #EEF2022 #valdaiclub

@valdai_club

🇷🇺🇨🇳 There are three basic levels in the development of Russia-China relations.

1️⃣ First, they are pursuing a coordinated policy on the global scale and regarding the main aspects of the European crisis.

2️⃣ Second, they have launched the process of economic rapprochement and openness, including in transport, trade and the exchange of technologies.

3️⃣ Third, they are readjusting their practical interaction to protect its participants from attacks by the United States and its allies and to create conditions for effective cooperation and mutual assistance.

The strategic partnership between Russia and China is not aimed at controlling the global economy and international politics. Its main goal is to guarantee their sovereignty and the possibility of stable development for all countries.

It is a new type of strategic partnership that is not aimed at preserving their monopoly positions, as the West is doing, but at creating a new type of relations between powers in the 21st century, write the authors of Valdai Club report, titled “Russia-China Strategic Partnership in the Context of the Crisis in Europe.”

📍 The presentation of the report took place on September 6, within the framework of the business programme of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivistok, Russia.

#valdai_report #EEF #China

@valdai_club

📷 On September 6, the Valdai Club held a session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations”, within the framework of the business programme of the Eastern Economic Forum.

Photo gallery of the discussion is available on VK.

The video of the discussion is available via this link.

#EEF #EEF2022 #valdaiclub

@valdai_club

📷 On September 6, the Valdai Club presented a report, titled “Russia-China Strategic Partnership in the Context of the Crisis in Europe,” within the framework of the business programme of the Eastern Economic Forum.

Photo gallery of the discussion is available on VK.

Stay tuned!

#EEF #EEF2022 #valdaiclub

@valdai_club

🚩 Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation of the Valdai Discussion Club:
 
◽️ The title of our session echoes the name of the forum itself: “Towards a Multipolar World”.

◽️ Will we be able to build consistent relationships in this world, make it comfortable, safe and convenient for everyone? These are the most important questions for our further development.

🎥 Valdai Club session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations” at #EEF.

#EEF2022 #valdaiclub

@valdai_club

🇷🇺 Yury Trutnev, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation – Presidential Plenipotentiary Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District:
 
▪️ 68 countries take part in the forum, and not only those close to the Russian Far East: these are Australia, Austria, Britain, the United States, Germany, France, Switzerland, Japan, Ireland, Italy – one can list them for a very long time.

▪️ This suggests that, despite the significantly changed construction of the world, nevertheless we are interesting to each other, we are trying to understand each other. And that means we have a chance.
 
▪️ Russia’s turn to the East did not happen now. Since Vladimir Putin declared the development of the Far East a national priority, almost 3,000 projects have been launched, private investments have come in at nearly 3 trillion rubles, and agreements worth 6.3 trillion have been signed.

▪️ The Far East is developing rapidly. This is the point of intersection of the worlds. But there are new challenges, fragments of development. So, the new tasks are:
 
• Accelerating the development of the eastern railway polygon. We are not coping today: to date, 78 million tonnes have not been transported, and this is about 1.5 trillion lost gross national product.
• Development of the Northern Sea Route. This is a transport artery that occupies a large place in the economy; the government has already adopted a plan for the Northern Sea Route.
• Improving the modes of interaction with friendly countries. We want the mechanisms for recognizing diplomas and certificates to work fully, so that projects that will live in the new international territories of advanced development operate not only within the framework of national legislation, but also within the framework of intergovernmental agreements.

🎥 Valdai Club session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations” at #EEF.

#EEF2022 #valdaiclub

@valdai_club

🇨🇳 Wang Wen, Executive Dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies (RDCY):
 
◽️ This is my first time in Vladivostok. Yesterday we climbed to the top of the hill, from where a view of the city opened – very similar to Hong Kong. And I thought, why not develop Vladivostok in the same way as Hong Kong? What is needed for this:
 
1️⃣ First is the implementation of financial projects, you must build the city as a powerful financial centre. In the 1990s, all investment flows and foreign investment passed through Hong Kong, so it was able to rise and become the world’s largest exchange. Vladivostok has something to look up to.

2️⃣ Second is the creation of infrastructure. There should be convenient roads that ensure competitiveness.

3️⃣ Third, it is important to create a large market. Vladivostok, Primorye, is located on the shores of the Sea of Japan, and it should be open to the world.
 
◽️ The topic of our conversation is the multipolar world. Twenty years ago, great changes took place in the world. In the next decade, China will overtake the United States.

◽️ Now India has become the fifth largest economy in the world. In the near future, we are waiting for such a situation: the first economy will be China, the second – India, the third – the United States, the fourth – Japan.

◽️ Where is Europe? In Europe, there is a decline.
 
◽️ What is the role of Russia? Now she can enjoy the dividends that her immediate neighbours create. And Primorsky Krai plays a big role in the development of the Russian Far East, it is important to integrate it with the common economic system.

🎥 Valdai Club session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations” at #EEF.

#EEF2022 #valdaiclub

@valdai_club

🇷🇺 Natalia Stapran, Director of the Department for Multilateral Economic Cooperation and Special Projects, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation
 
▪️ Over the past ten years, the Far East has moved forward very dynamically. Much has been done, much remains to be done.
 
▪️ Vladivostok is Russia’s gateway to the Asia-Pacific region. But you need to understand that competition is very high. You can consider the model of Hong Kong that Wang Wen talked about, but how many years did it take for Hong Kong to develop? Or maybe Vladivostok is similar to San Francisco... There are many economic centres on the Pacific Ocean.
 
▪️ The experience offered by our Asian partners, the ASEAN countries, is a very serious start for Russia. But it is difficult to create conditions that would compete with other regions. Highlights:
 
• Development of logistical routes, means of communication – this is both the railway and the Northern Sea Route.
• Legal regulation of relations. We are now facing many challenges: European systems of verification and recognition have to be abandoned, but this is not bad – we are looking at the countries of Asia.
• Free trade zones, of which there is a huge number in the Asia-Pacific region, hence the question is whether we will catch up, jump into the departing train, or offer something of our own. The fact is that the modern global economy and the digital economy allow us to shorten the path to global trade, the long path that our Asian partners have travelled.
• Request for green development.
• Over the past ten years, the Far East has moved forward very dynamically. Much has been done, much remains to be done.

🎥 Valdai Club session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations” at #EEF.

#EEF2022 #valdaiclub

@valdai_club

🇮🇳 B.K. Sharma, Major General (Ret.), Director of the United Services Institution:
 
◽️ Asia becomes a gravitational point where everyone flocks. But we live in a difficult period, where there is a lot of uncertainty. The world has gone through three shocks: COVID, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Ukrainian crisis, and all this has affected the international situation.

◽️ At the international level, there is now more conflict and competition. A number of countries are trying to spread their ideology in other regions. We see an attempt to dominate through the so-called new resources – through technology (microchips, semiconductors).

◽️ Some countries have a habit of punishing and scaring everyone with economic sanctions.

◽️ However, the pyramidal structure of the world is beginning to crumble: Asia is developing, primarily China, Russia is developing, other countries, in particular India, are also straightening up and showing their strength in the international arena.

◽️ The world is getting on the rails of multipolarity. This is the future.
 
◽️ A hybrid war is going on in Ukraine – an attempt to undermine the international world order. But Russia and many Asian countries approach the international agenda more globally and responsibly and are trying to make sure that everyone comes to cooperation.
 
◽️ Relations between India and Russia are developing outside the policy of confrontation. Our views on the future development of the world are similar.

◽️ Vladivostok can become a place to bring people together – this is one of the development opportunities for Asia as a whole.
 
◽️ For us, this is also significant from the point of view of energy cooperation. India is one of the countries with large energy consumption, and it would be convenient for us if the Russian Far East developed.

◽️ We are also interested in cooperation in the field of green technologies. In this regard, the implementation of projects for the development of the Northern Sea Route is important, an integrated sea corridor is needed so that Russia can trade through Iran. In such a case, India too can take its place in the transportation of goods to these parts of the world.

◽️ There are concerns:
 
• Prime Minister Modi recently said that the militarization of the Arctic must not be allowed – now there is such a danger.
• In addition, there are fears that the relationship between India and China could undermine the relationship between Russia and India.
 
◽️ But the main thing is that India is ready to support Russia in the development of the Far East, and I think that in the end it will take the position of a strategic balancer in all processes.

🎥 Valdai Club session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations” at #EEF.

#EEF2022 #valdaiclub

@valdai_club

🇷🇺 Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, HSE University
 
▪️ It seems that all of the above is too good to be true. But these conditions do exist, and they are of a long-term nature. For Russia, choosing the best is important.
 
▪️ Returning to the topic of the session (multipolarity), it is not the number of poles that matters, but their quality. The whole logic of turning to the East was based on a deep understanding of how globalization works, global markets, and what role Asia plays in these relations. In the last six months, the processes have accelerated, a deep revision has begun. And this revision will not be soft, quick and amicable.
 
▪️ One aspect of the transition to a new globalization is already very clearly taking shape – this is a departure from the commodity-nomenclature snobbery that was inherent in the last stage of globalization: “Supply of vulgar hydrocarbons, wheat, fertilizers? Yes, this is just the baseline.” This was the case both at the level of rhetoric and at the level of distribution of corporate value.

▪️ In recent years, a grocery delivery app could be valued dozens of times more expensive than food delivery companies and manufacturers. Today, for dozens of countries, it doesn’t matter what application you have for delivering groceries if you don’t have bread and nothing to charge your phone with.
 
▪️ And this transition is very important for the Far East, for how it will lead Russia to Asia and wider – to the big world to the East and South.
 
▪️ We are ready to export not only specific goods: we are ready to export food, water and energy security. And that's a huge competitive advantage. The export value of the Far East is the readiness to provide these goods in a predictable and sustainable manner.
 
▪️ It is important for us:
 
• To realize that we are able to export not only barrels;
• To develop infrastructure;
• Not to scrimp on investments – the stakes are very high now, and these investments will pay off.

🎥 Valdai Club session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations” at #EEF.

#EEF2022 #valdaiclub

🇧🇷 The Brazilian elections of 2022 will be the most important since the process of redemocratization started after the end of the Civic-Military Dictatorship.

The traditional Brazilian political axis of the dispute between the center-left (PT) and the center-right represented by the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) almost three decades ago was changed to the competition between the center-left (PT) and the far-right led by the Liberal Social Party (PSL) of Jair Bolsonaro.

What is at stake is much more than the return of former President Lula to the Planalto Palace, is more like a referendum on his political role in recent years, writes Valdai Club expert Charles Pennaforte.

#Norms_and_Values #Brazil

@valdai_club