Valdai Discussion Club
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🗝🏰 For the European Union, the benefits of visa restrictions are mainly symbolic.

Visa sanctions are another measure that can be written down as an asset in containing Russia. They can be regarded as a signal that there will be no return to the conditionally pre-February model of relations. The preservation of interpersonal contacts as they existed before does not correspond to current political realities, which means that they can and should be brought to a common and, at the same time, the smallest denominator.

Obviously, calls for a total visa ban for Russians are a form of populism. They come mainly from countries that used to be in the anti-Russian vanguard. However, less radical steps in the form of reducing the number of visas and increasing the processing time for applications may well be sold on the political market as another blow to Russia, as well as be a way of gaining moral self-satisfaction in the fight against it.

Another symbolic plus in the eyes of the EU authorities could be the transformation of a trip to the EU for Russians from an ordinary routine into a hard-to-reach privilege that must be earned. It is possible that the visa policy will become a tool for selecting between “good” Russians and “bad” ones.

The EU’s visa manipulations are sure to irritate, rather than support the majority. They will be seen as yet another step towards the “cancellation of Russia”, and the rhetoric of EU officials will be seen even more as demagogy, indicating weakness rather than strength.

The thesis which is widespread in the intellectual discourse of the EU, that the dissatisfaction of Russians with the reduction in trips to the Union is transforming into dissatisfaction with the authorities, seems naive, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

#EconomicStatecraft #EU #sanctions #visas

@valdaiclub
🌐 The main institutions of the Bretton Woods system, which have existed since the Second World War, are rapidly losing their economic weight.

At this time, key actors in the developing world are coming to the fore, calling into question the out-dated rules of the game, including the hegemony of the West.

Instead of destroying the legacy of the last century, they offer an alternative economic system where each player is able to influence important decisions at the international level.

The BRICS countries have proposed their own concept for building the future of financial stability - the New Development Bank, write Maksim Chirkov and Alisa Kazelko.

#Valdai_WorldEconomy #BRICS

@valdai_club
🌏🌎 The BRICS+ summit and the foreign ministers’ BRICS+ meeting in 2022 brought together developing economies that represented regional blocs such as the African Union, CELAC, SCO, GCC and ASEAN.

This in effect was the widest outreach exercise covering the vast majority of the Global South and representing a platform that could prove instrumental in advancing greater economic openness across the developing world.

The key factor that renders the creation of a South-South FTA feasible and in fact expedient is the high degree of undertrading along the “South-South” axis compared to the potential based on distance and respective country GDP levels (indications of the gravity model). Another factor is the “integration gap” — namely the significantly lower scale and quality of integration in the developing world compared to the advanced economies.

The South-South FTA could serve to bridge this gap and foster “catch-up integration” or “integration convergence” vis-à-vis the developed world, writes Yaroslav Lissovolik, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

#Valdai_WorldEconomy #BRICS #GlobalSouth

@valdai_club
🇷🇺🌏 What place relations with Asia will occupy for Russia in the coming years?

1️⃣ First, relations with China and, especially, other Asian states are still no way to resolve problems of an existential nature. Trade and economic relations in the East, in the face of attempts at a partial blockade by the West, solve the problem of maintaining the Russian presence in the world economy, despite the United States and its allies attempting to erase it from this global system of connections.

2️⃣ Second, Russia will have to solve the key tasks of national development on its own, without relying on external sources of technology, not to mention finances. The coming era will require states to have a much greater degree of de facto sovereignty and, in a sense, a capacity for limited autarky. Therefore, for all the importance of ties outside the West, Russia cannot simply reorient itself from one direction to another while maintaining its historically-formed strategy of dependence on external sources of development.

3️⃣ Third, it must be taken into account that even the most active ties in Asia cannot supplant relations with the states of the Islamic world, neighbouring countries and, in fact, Europe, where not everyone is inclined to build walls on their eastern border. The geopolitical position of Russia cannot be changed simply because of a military-political conflict.

Summing up, we can say that amid modern conditions, relations with the Asian countries are indeed becoming not a choice, but a necessity, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

#Asia_and_Eurasia #geopolitics

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🇨🇳 The new stage of Chinese policy towards Taiwan will most likely be characterised by the more active use of military instruments of pressure on the island.

China has been able to build a powerful infrastructure for economic influence on Taiwan, becoming a key trade and industrial partner for the island. Hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese live and do business in the mainland.

But the PRC has been unable to convert this economic influence and human connections into real political influence in Taiwan. Since the return of the Democratic Progressive Party to power in the 2016 elections, the situation in relations with China has steadily deteriorated.

From the point of view of the PRC, an extremely alarming, unbearable situation has developed on the Taiwan issue: there is a simultaneous increase in separatist sentiments inside the island, an increase  of American military assistance to the island, and an accelerated erosion of the One China policy by the United States. The answer was the mobilisation of the resources of the Chinese state to resolve the Taiwan issue in a short time period, if necessary, with the use of force.

With a formal commitment to a peaceful solution to the problem, the real possibilities for “peaceful reunification” are narrowing, writes Valdai Club expert Vasily Kashin.

#ModernDiplomacy #China #Taiwan

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📆 #EEF2022: the Valdai Discussion Club will take part in the Eastern Economic Forum for the sixth time tomorrow.

On Tuesday, September 6, we will run two events within the framework of the business programme of EEF:

🔷 At 10:00 local time (GMT+10), we will hold a session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations”.

🔷 At 12:30 (GMT+10), the Valdai Club will present a report at EEF-2022, titled “Russia-China Strategic Partnership in the Context of the Crisis in Europe”.

Stay tuned!

@valdai_club
🌏 The 21st century is the century of the Far East.

🎯 In 2021, half of the world’s population was in the Far East.

🎯 Half of the top 20 countries by population are from the Far East: China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam.

🎯 The Far East Economic Circle accounts for 40% of the global GDP and contributes more than 50% of the global economic growth.

🎯 Between 2015 and 2030, the consumption of the world’s middle class is expected to increase by 30 trillion U.S. dollar, with Europe accounting for only 1 trillion U.S. dollar, and more than a half is from the Far East.

The most urgent task now is to correct the past stereotype of “Far East = remoteness + marginalization”.

We need to regard it as the hope for future development, and strive to promote the integration of the Russian Far East into the Greater Far East, that is, the process of East Asian economic integration, writes Wang Wen, Executive Dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies (RDCY), Renmin University of China. 

📌 The article was prepared in advance of the Valdai Sessions as part of the Eastern Economic Forum 2022.

#Asia_and_Eurasia #EEF #EEF2022 #FarEast

@valdai_club
🌏 About 30 export-oriented investment projects with a total value of more than 80 billion rubles are being implemented in Russia's Far Eastern Federal District.

The largest volume of export is from Kamchatka and Primorsky Krai, first of all, these are water and biological resources.

Especially for Valdai Club session at the Eastern Economic Forum, we created an infographic on the accelerated development of the Far Eastern Federal District.

📌 The session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations” within the framework of the business programme of the EEF will take place tomorrow, on September 6, at 10:00 local time (GMT+10).

#valdai_infographics #EEF #FarEast

@valdai_club
🌐 Gorbachev forever remained the image of perestroika and glasnost.

For some in Russia, Gorbachev was the one who betrayed the interests of the Soviet Union, weakening its power and setting the stage for the humanitarian catastrophe that struck the millions of Russians left after 1991 to live in former Soviet republics subject to new national sentiments at the local level.

For others, he was a man who prevented even worse things from happening and knew how to overcome the rigid limitations of an ideology, writes Valdai Club expert Stefano Pilotto.

#Norms_and_Values #Gorbachev

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🇷🇺🇨🇳 There are three basic levels in the development of Russia-China relations.

1️⃣ First, they are pursuing a coordinated policy on the global scale and regarding the main aspects of the European crisis.

2️⃣ Second, they have launched the process of economic rapprochement and openness, including in transport, trade and the exchange of technologies.

3️⃣ Third, they are readjusting their practical interaction to protect its participants from attacks by the United States and its allies and to create conditions for effective cooperation and mutual assistance.

The strategic partnership between Russia and China is not aimed at controlling the global economy and international politics. Its main goal is to guarantee their sovereignty and the possibility of stable development for all countries.

It is a new type of strategic partnership that is not aimed at preserving their monopoly positions, as the West is doing, but at creating a new type of relations between powers in the 21st century, write the authors of Valdai Club report, titled “Russia-China Strategic Partnership in the Context of the Crisis in Europe.”

📍 The presentation of the report took place on September 6, within the framework of the business programme of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivistok, Russia.

#valdai_report #EEF #China

@valdai_club
📷 On September 6, the Valdai Club held a session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations”, within the framework of the business programme of the Eastern Economic Forum.

Photo gallery of the discussion is available on VK.

The video of the discussion is available via this link.

#EEF #EEF2022 #valdaiclub

@valdai_club
📷 On September 6, the Valdai Club presented a report, titled “Russia-China Strategic Partnership in the Context of the Crisis in Europe, within the framework of the business programme of the Eastern Economic Forum.

Photo gallery of the discussion is available on VK.

Stay tuned!

#EEF #EEF2022 #valdaiclub

@valdai_club
Valdai Discussion Club pinned «🇷🇺🇨🇳 There are three basic levels in the development of Russia-China relations. 1️⃣ First, they are pursuing a coordinated policy on the global scale and regarding the main aspects of the European crisis. 2️⃣ Second, they have launched the process of economic…»
🇷🇺🇨🇳 Billateral trade has increased by more than 50% since 2014, and China has become Russia's largest export destination.

Especially for the presentation of the Valdai Club report “Russia-China Strategic Partnership in the Context of the Crisis in Europe” at EEF-2022, we created an infographic on Russian-Chinese cooperation.

#valdai_infographics #EEF #China

@valdai_club
🚩 Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation of the Valdai Discussion Club:
 
◽️ The title of our session echoes the name of the forum itself: “Towards a Multipolar World”.

◽️ Will we be able to build consistent relationships in this world, make it comfortable, safe and convenient for everyone? These are the most important questions for our further development.

🎥 Valdai Club session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations” at #EEF.

#EEF2022 #valdaiclub

@valdai_club
🇷🇺 Yury Trutnev, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation – Presidential Plenipotentiary Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District:
 
▪️ 68 countries take part in the forum, and not only those close to the Russian Far East: these are Australia, Austria, Britain, the United States, Germany, France, Switzerland, Japan, Ireland, Italy – one can list them for a very long time.

▪️ This suggests that, despite the significantly changed construction of the world, nevertheless we are interesting to each other, we are trying to understand each other. And that means we have a chance.
 
▪️ Russia’s turn to the East did not happen now. Since Vladimir Putin declared the development of the Far East a national priority, almost 3,000 projects have been launched, private investments have come in at nearly 3 trillion rubles, and agreements worth 6.3 trillion have been signed.

▪️ The Far East is developing rapidly. This is the point of intersection of the worlds. But there are new challenges, fragments of development. So, the new tasks are:
 
Accelerating the development of the eastern railway polygon. We are not coping today: to date, 78 million tonnes have not been transported, and this is about 1.5 trillion lost gross national product.
Development of the Northern Sea Route. This is a transport artery that occupies a large place in the economy; the government has already adopted a plan for the Northern Sea Route.
Improving the modes of interaction with friendly countries. We want the mechanisms for recognizing diplomas and certificates to work fully, so that projects that will live in the new international territories of advanced development operate not only within the framework of national legislation, but also within the framework of intergovernmental agreements.

🎥 Valdai Club session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations” at #EEF.

#EEF2022 #valdaiclub

@valdai_club
🇨🇳 Wang Wen, Executive Dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies (RDCY):
 
◽️ This is my first time in Vladivostok. Yesterday we climbed to the top of the hill, from where a view of the city opened – very similar to Hong Kong. And I thought, why not develop Vladivostok in the same way as Hong Kong? What is needed for this:
 
1️⃣ First is the implementation of financial projects, you must build the city as a powerful financial centre. In the 1990s, all investment flows and foreign investment passed through Hong Kong, so it was able to rise and become the world’s largest exchange. Vladivostok has something to look up to.

2️⃣ Second is the creation of infrastructure. There should be convenient roads that ensure competitiveness.

3️⃣ Third, it is important to create a large market. Vladivostok, Primorye, is located on the shores of the Sea of Japan, and it should be open to the world.
 
◽️ The topic of our conversation is the multipolar world. Twenty years ago, great changes took place in the world. In the next decade, China will overtake the United States.

◽️ Now India has become the fifth largest economy in the world. In the near future, we are waiting for such a situation: the first economy will be China, the second – India, the third – the United States, the fourth – Japan.

◽️ Where is Europe? In Europe, there is a decline.
 
◽️ What is the role of Russia? Now she can enjoy the dividends that her immediate neighbours create. And Primorsky Krai plays a big role in the development of the Russian Far East, it is important to integrate it with the common economic system.

🎥 Valdai Club session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations” at #EEF.

#EEF2022 #valdaiclub

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🇷🇺 Natalia Stapran, Director of the Department for Multilateral Economic Cooperation and Special Projects, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation
 
▪️ Over the past ten years, the Far East has moved forward very dynamically. Much has been done, much remains to be done.
 
▪️ Vladivostok is Russia’s gateway to the Asia-Pacific region. But you need to understand that competition is very high. You can consider the model of Hong Kong that Wang Wen talked about, but how many years did it take for Hong Kong to develop? Or maybe Vladivostok is similar to San Francisco... There are many economic centres on the Pacific Ocean.
 
▪️ The experience offered by our Asian partners, the ASEAN countries, is a very serious start for Russia. But it is difficult to create conditions that would compete with other regions. Highlights:
 
Development of logistical routes, means of communication – this is both the railway and the Northern Sea Route.
Legal regulation of relations. We are now facing many challenges: European systems of verification and recognition have to be abandoned, but this is not bad – we are looking at the countries of Asia.
Free trade zones, of which there is a huge number in the Asia-Pacific region, hence the question is whether we will catch up, jump into the departing train, or offer something of our own. The fact is that the modern global economy and the digital economy allow us to shorten the path to global trade, the long path that our Asian partners have travelled.
Request for green development.
Over the past ten years, the Far East has moved forward very dynamically. Much has been done, much remains to be done.

🎥 Valdai Club session titled “Gateway to the Multipolar World. The Far East in the New Architecture of International Relations” at #EEF.

#EEF2022 #valdaiclub

@valdai_club