Don't spend another year doing the same shit.

✅ @trading

Anyone can follow rules after a win.

Professionals follow rules after a loss.

That’s the real separation.

The moment you stop negotiating with yourself is the moment trading becomes simple.

Not easy.

Simple.

And simplicity, executed relentlessly, is what compounds.

✅ @trading

Trump sent a letter to the Prime Minister of Norway saying that he no longer considers himself obligated to “think exclusively about peace” after not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize.

✅ @trading

⚠️ Key Events This Week

It’s a shortened but busy week for US markets. With one trading day lost to MLK Day, attention shifts to macro data, earnings, and headline risk from Davos.

Volatility is likely to build mid to late week, especially as markets remain sensitive to fresh signals around a potential new Trump-led tariff push against Europe.

🟡Monday

● US markets closed for MLK Day
● World Economic Forum kicks off in Davos

Low liquidity in US markets, but Davos headlines can still move sentiment, particularly around trade policy, geopolitics, and rates.

🟡Tuesday

● Netflix $NFLX earnings

Early signal for consumer demand and growth-oriented equities. Guidance will matter more than backward-looking numbers.

🔴 Wednesday

● December Pending Home Sales
● Trump speech at Davos

Housing data offers a read on demand under elevated mortgage rates. Trump’s Davos remarks add headline risk, especially around tariffs, trade relations, and fiscal stance.

🔴 Thursday

● Core PCE Inflation
● US Q3 2025 GDP
● Weekly Jobless Claims
● Intel $INTC earnings

The most important day of the week. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. GDP and claims add context on growth and labor conditions. Expect reactions in rates, USD, and equities.

🟡 Friday

● S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI
● University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Final check on business activity and consumer confidence before the close.

Around 10% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, but the market focus remains on Thursday’s macro cluster and ongoing tariff-related headlines.

✅ @trading

⚙️ Trump’s tariff playbook is back

Markets are facing another tariff-driven volatility cycle. Trump has announced new tariffs on the EU while tying any rollback to a Greenland deal, restarting a familiar pattern that traders have seen multiple times before.

A new 10% tariff is set to begin on February 1, with a planned increase to 25% on June 1 if no agreement is reached.

The targets include Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland. Trump has stated the tariffs stay until a full deal on Greenland is reached.

This fits the same structure that has defined Trump’s trade strategy in previous episodes.

How the tariff cycle usually unfolds

🟡 Initial threat or cryptic message, often late Friday
🟡 Formal tariff announcement shortly after, usually aggressive in size
🟡 Repeated pressure over the weekend while markets are closed
🟡 Futures sell off when markets reopen on Sunday night
🟡 Early week volatility as headlines dominate
🟡 Dip buying appears midweek as traders realize tariffs are not yet live
🟡 Talks and “progress” headlines surface the following weekend
🟡 Futures rally on optimism, often fading after the cash open
🟡 A deal is announced before tariffs actually take effect

Tariffs are used as leverage, not as an end goal.

The timing matters.
Announcements tend to come when markets are closed, with a 2–3 week window before implementation to force negotiations. In past cases, deals were announced on the exact day tariffs were supposed to go live.

This time the Greenland demand is more complex than past disputes, which could stretch the timeline. Still, the sequence remains familiar.

Markets tend to struggle most during the headline phase, then stabilize once process replaces emotion.

Volatility is not the outcome. It is the mechanism.

✅ @trading

JUST IN: US natural gas prices extend gains to over +19% on the day, now on track for the biggest daily gain since October 2024.

We are seeing some insane volatility in commodities.

✅ @trading

This is what $10,000 of Gold over a 20 year difference looks like

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JUST IN: Trump has posted an image depicting Canada and Greenland as part of the United States

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⚡️ Massive liquidity incoming

The Federal Reserve is injecting $55.3B into the financial system between Jan 20 and Feb 12 through Treasury reinvestments (about $15.4B) and reserve management purchases (around $40B in T-bills).

This is a deliberate liquidity surge to keep reserves abundant as balance sheets tighten.

Markets, brace yourselves.

✅ @trading

JUST IN: Danish pension fund AkademikerPension announces they will sell all US Treasuries by month-end, citing "rising credit risk" under President Trump.

The fund's CIO says US finances are no longer "sustainable," due to weak fiscal discipline, a softer Dollar, and Trump’s push for Greenland.

✅ @trading

JUST IN: France's Foreign Minister says France supports the EU Parliament's wish to suspend the trade deal between the US and EU.

✅ @trading

JUST IN: The US Supreme Court decides to NOT issue a highly anticipated ruling on the legality of President Trump's tariffs today.

This marks the third-straight time the ruling was not released as expected.

✅ @trading

JUST IN: Greenland said to be preparing for potential invasion.

✅ @trading

Warren Buffet's son chose a 2000-acre farm over managing billions.

✅ @trading

Reporter: "How far are you willing to go to acquire Greenland."

Trump: "You'll find out."

✅ @trading