$100 → $12,800 on weather markets nobody takes seriously.

HondaCivic figured out what everyone ignores: weather markets are lazy. They average forecasts instead of pricing tail risk.

Buy YES at 30-60¢ on unlikely weather events. Sell NO at 90¢ when the crowd overheats. Repeat.

$12,845 in a month just by reading meteorology better than the crowd.

The money's always in the boring markets. Everyone's watching politics and crypto. The actual edge is in London rainfall.

https://x.com/0xkiyoro/status/2014711958218359222?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

retail is gambling more than ever. just not on crypto

retail is trading more stocks, commodities and options since covid and it's not slowing down

why? middle classes feel the walls closing in. AI is coming for their jobs. trading feels like the only way out

the good news is: this is great if you're building gambling/speculative products

the bad news: they are not touching crypto. btc is flat for 12 months. eth underperformed the s&p. meanwhile options volume on robinhood is up 40%

crypto is competing with draftkings, robinhood options, and sports betting apps. and right now, it's losing.

https://x.com/macromate8/status/2014748563188982234?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

r/Quant
r/finance
r/SecurityAnalysis
r/wallstreetbets
r/personalfinance
r/Economics
r/stocks
r/portfolios
r/investing
r/ValueInvesting
r/FluentInFinance
r/business

thank me later.

https://x.com/cherrishkhera/status/2014761543074971709?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

I found recent launches to reflect reality disturbingly well

I ran it on a free tool that exposes why 84.7% of 2025 tokens are underwater

I've been saying this forever, beucase teams obsess over tge and ignore post-launch mechanics.

the result is often too much sell pressure that rugs the prices within months

here is the sell pressure simulator built by
@Delphi_Digital
the monte carlo model for token unlock dynamics.

founders, if you are launching a project here is how you can use it:
- input unlock schedule vesting terms
- selling assumptions liquidity conditions
- shows you 25th-75th percentile price paths across thousands of scenarios

the 84.7% stat proves what I already knew:
- tokenomics is broken industry-wide
- teams copy-paste vesting schedules without modeling outcomes
- shocked when holders dump

I'm comparing different allocation strategies side by side. longer vests don't always help if unlock amounts are huge. smaller frequent unlocks sometimes better than large quarterly ones

I'm bookmarking this for every founder who asks me about tokenomics. run your model through this BEFORE finalizing allocations

most won't. they'll launch with beautiful deck and 18-month lockup thinking that's enough.

tool is live

no excuse for bad tokenomics anymore

just wilful ignorance

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2015080627054534830

Imo, @immunefi at $100M FDV is very undervalued.

My thesis is that each time a new protocol is hacked, $IMU will pump (cause devs will start thinking about preventive measures, finally)

In fact, here's a ton of cryptos with zero value sitting at the same FDV, meanwhile $IMU has:

• $25B+ in losses prevented
• 300+ customers today (Aave, Chainlink, Arbitrum, Optimism, etc)
• 650+ protocols secured (Ethereum, Ripple, Polygon, Sky, etc)
• 60,000+ security researchers (the largest security community in crypto)
• $125m+ in onchain bounties paid

NFA ofc.

https://x.com/stacy_muur/status/2014911949885284673?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

Once @XEng unveiled their new 𝕏 algorithm, opinions flooded in from every corner.

It's funny, since the algorithm isn't fully open source and some parameters remain under wraps.

Means that every article or post diving deep into it can only offer educated guesses.

I think the smartest move is using machines to decode machines.

So, I forked the GitHub repository, ran it on Claude, and took a leaf out of @AbdelStark's works.

And here we are, a scoring meter for your posts, giving you an aggregated score for posts and accounts:

https://eli5-x-algo.vercel.app

Let me know your experience and suggestions in the comment.

https://x.com/Eli5defi/status/2014699456558727525

Prediction markets are the next Big Airdrop meta

There are already multiple platforms live, they raised hundreds of millions at valuations exceeding $10B - $20B

If you do not start now, it will be too late...

Tools, strategies, risk management, everything you need below👇

https://x.com/jussy_world/status/2015024636216623314?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

What Is Clawdbot? (And Why People Are Losing Their Minds Over It)

https://x.com/NoahEpstein_/status/2015073824799371370

How to Create Realistic AI Voices (Full System)

https://x.com/Mho_23/status/2015084338908385760

Here’s the 15min Setup Guide to How I Build My New AI Intern at $0 with Clawdbot

I didn’t hire but BUILD a new intern that works for me across my apps: Telegram, Emails, Browser, Discord, Twitter, Google Meetings and all other apps.

You will need a Mac mini (or read below for the FREE hack)… and installed an AI agent on it.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2015338781164052787

My Crypto Narratives Tier List for 2026

These narratives will define this cycle—ranked by conviction.
🧵

https://x.com/flowslikeosmo/status/2015099805241164063

Interesting things in DeFi Part 1

https://x.com/Wajahat/status/2015026381575352692

The Ultimate CVD Guide: Fundamentals, Tools, and Tactics

https://x.com/exitpumpBTC/status/2015394303791489246

: : [Issue] How Effective is Polymarket FDV Prediction Market?

https://x.com/FourPillarsFP/status/2012077911613063257

i found some really interesting for perp trading.

what's breaking my brain is 98% of volume comes from RWAs. not crypto

REAL WORLD ASSETS

$XAU $XAG at all time high and @ostium did:
- $25B cumulative vol
- $200M OI
- 2,600 weekly users

people are trading Platinum perps onchain. hit $50M open interest. PLATINUM

65% APY for LPs in the USDC vault = there's REAL demand here
https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2015802053730414685

The two biggest headaches in market-making for prediction markets—how to price? How to hedge risk?

https://x.com/QuantVela/status/2015440805725700420

Earn 20% APY, get paid in ETH when you stake SSV

https://x.com/ssv_network/status/2016156591452832191

i've dug through @stacy_muur guide and filtered 8 perp dexes worth farming based on volume OI and fee economics:

@paradex - starknet appchain. $220M TVL (6x growth). $36B monthly volume. season 2 live distributing 4M XP weekly. I'm trading + providing vault liquidity

@edgeX_exchange - transitioning to EDGE chain. $84B monthly volume. pre-TGE season launched jan 7. spot gives 3x XP multiplier and holding $MARU for boost

@grvt_io - zkync L3. $38B monthly volume. rewards 2.0 emphasizes open interest weighting. I'm maintaining positions not just churning volume

@extendedapp - ex-revolut team on starknet. $37B monthly. 1.2M points weekly. providing LP for 20% bonus APY

@pacifica_fi - solana hybrid. closed beta but doing $840M daily. consecutive trading bonus up to 23%. I'm farming streak multiplier

@reya_xyz - modular L2 with shared liquidity. staking for srUSD (4.8% APY) plus loyalty points. trading gets highest allocation

@variational_io - loss refunds on arbitrum. refunded $3M trader losses. I'm using this for riskier trades knowing downside is cushioned

@nadoHQ - kraken's ink L2. private alpha ended. waiting for open beta. early users get INK airdrop

strategy = funding rate arbitrage
- open long on one dex short on another
- hedge price risk
- capture funding rates
- generate volume for points
- break even or profit while farming

example:
$10k BTC long + $10k BTC short. funding +0.01% every 8h.
- earn $3 daily regardless of BTC direction

risks I'm managing:
- liquidation on short leg (using stop loss)
- funding flipping negative (monitoring constantly)
- avoid high leverage (staying 5-10x max)

tools:
- @LorisTools for funding rate aggregation
- @fundingviewapp for historical profitable pairs
- @dextrabot for automated delta-neutral strategies

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2016184056690704766