this is legitimately brilliant

trying it today because if this actually works the way he describes I'm completely changing how I trade on prediction markets like
@Polymarket


i just gone through
@the_smart_ape
's bot, he just spent weeks building a free tool that connects Polymarket odds to real-time news because he was tired of manually tracking everything.

the insight here gathered is perfect:
- top traders on Polymarket aren't running sophisticated bots.
- they're just faster at spotting when the market price diverges from reality.
- markets stay mispriced for HOURS after major news drops. 10-30% off sometimes

he built polymarketnews(dot)xyz and it's actually insane:
- AI scrapes every major publisher
- flags bullish/bearish news with green/red markers directly on the price chart
- updates in minutes.

for instance, the Iran Khamenei market example, the news drops suggesting power consolidation, market doesn't react for hours, then crashes 40%

I've been saying this forever, information asymmetry is the only real edge in prediction markets and he just made it for free

absolute gold here

i genuinely think this is one of those tools that becomes essential infrastructure for anyone serious about prediction markets.

the edge isn't the bot it's the speed of information and he just leveled the playing field

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2014359301687791798

$MARU 500m mcap
$LIT 468m mcap

@edgeX_exchange > @Lighter_xyz

perp dex meta not dead

edgex is the meta

long $MARU

keep farming keep winning

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2011693450924867620

$PENDLE killing vePENDLE for liquid sPENDLE is the most honest admission of tokenomics failure I've seen and everyone should study this

60x revenue growth. only 20% of supply engaged with vePENDLE.

lowest participation rate among ALL veToken models.

60% of pools unprofitable despite overall positive fee efficiency

that's NOT success that's design failure masked by a few whale pools carrying entire protocol

the problems @pendle_fi admits:
- multi-year locks destroyed capital efficiency
- weekly voting required expert-level defi knowledge
- rewards concentrated to tiny fraction who could navigate complexity
- vote-based emissions created terrible allocation (60% of pools bleeding value)
- composability killed by non-transferable locks

these are foundational flaws that made participation irrational for 80% of holders
- sPENDLE replacement: 14-day withdrawal. liquid composable fungible. 80% protocol revenue → PENDLE buybacks → distributed to stakers. algorithmic emissions cutting 30% waste

the loyalty bonus (4x boost for existing vePENDLE based on remaining lock) is damage control. don't want current holders nuking token when locks become worthless

but here's the real lesson:
- pendle generated $37M revenue in 2025 while only 20% of token holders participated.
- imagine if 80% participated but protocol only made $10M. everyone would call it failure
- instead they had revenue success despite tokenomics failure. proves product > token model. yield trading had PMF.

but why did it take years?
@CurveFinance
established veToken model 2020. pendle launched vePENDLE knowing the limitations. still chose it. now abandoning it

but will sPENDLE actually increase participation from 20% to 60%+? depends if people actually want governance or if they just want yield
- if they just want yield (most do) then sPENDLE staking for buyback rewards without weekly voting works. set and forget
- if protocol still needs active governance then simplifying to "only vote when PPP active" might work. but most holders won't care about governance even with low friction

the real test:
- does protocol revenue distribution to sPENDLE holders create better alignment than vePENDLE voting power
probably yes. direct revenue share = everyone wants protocol revenue to grow. voting power = whales extract value through governance
- killing LP reward boosting for new pools is significant. removing complexity. reducing edge for sophisticated users. democratizing access
- 2-year transition period for vePENDLE decay is long. creates two-class system. boosted legacy holders vs regular sPENDLE. might cause friction
overall this is what token evolution should look like: admit what's broken. fix it completely. grandfather existing users. move forward
- most protocols would've kept vePENDLE forever rather than admit it failed. pendle deserves credit for honesty and willingness to pivot

my bet:
- participation increases meaningfully.
- liquid composable tokens with direct revenue share are obviously better than locked voting power for 95% of holders
the 5% who were sophisticated vePENDLE voters lose relative advantage. the 95% who were sitting out finally have reason to participate
that's net positive for protocol even if top voters are unhappy
pendle revenue proves product works. sPENDLE fixes token. combination should compound

this should be case study for every protocol with failed veToken model. most won't pivot because admitting failure is hard.

pendle did it anyway

respect

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2014575081750724622

These Tools will Boost Your Win Rate on Opinion and Other Prediction Markets

https://x.com/rainyo/status/2014771466676421032?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

$100 → $12,800 on weather markets nobody takes seriously.

HondaCivic figured out what everyone ignores: weather markets are lazy. They average forecasts instead of pricing tail risk.

Buy YES at 30-60¢ on unlikely weather events. Sell NO at 90¢ when the crowd overheats. Repeat.

$12,845 in a month just by reading meteorology better than the crowd.

The money's always in the boring markets. Everyone's watching politics and crypto. The actual edge is in London rainfall.

https://x.com/0xkiyoro/status/2014711958218359222?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

retail is gambling more than ever. just not on crypto

retail is trading more stocks, commodities and options since covid and it's not slowing down

why? middle classes feel the walls closing in. AI is coming for their jobs. trading feels like the only way out

the good news is: this is great if you're building gambling/speculative products

the bad news: they are not touching crypto. btc is flat for 12 months. eth underperformed the s&p. meanwhile options volume on robinhood is up 40%

crypto is competing with draftkings, robinhood options, and sports betting apps. and right now, it's losing.

https://x.com/macromate8/status/2014748563188982234?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

r/Quant
r/finance
r/SecurityAnalysis
r/wallstreetbets
r/personalfinance
r/Economics
r/stocks
r/portfolios
r/investing
r/ValueInvesting
r/FluentInFinance
r/business

thank me later.

https://x.com/cherrishkhera/status/2014761543074971709?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

I found recent launches to reflect reality disturbingly well

I ran it on a free tool that exposes why 84.7% of 2025 tokens are underwater

I've been saying this forever, beucase teams obsess over tge and ignore post-launch mechanics.

the result is often too much sell pressure that rugs the prices within months

here is the sell pressure simulator built by
@Delphi_Digital
the monte carlo model for token unlock dynamics.

founders, if you are launching a project here is how you can use it:
- input unlock schedule vesting terms
- selling assumptions liquidity conditions
- shows you 25th-75th percentile price paths across thousands of scenarios

the 84.7% stat proves what I already knew:
- tokenomics is broken industry-wide
- teams copy-paste vesting schedules without modeling outcomes
- shocked when holders dump

I'm comparing different allocation strategies side by side. longer vests don't always help if unlock amounts are huge. smaller frequent unlocks sometimes better than large quarterly ones

I'm bookmarking this for every founder who asks me about tokenomics. run your model through this BEFORE finalizing allocations

most won't. they'll launch with beautiful deck and 18-month lockup thinking that's enough.

tool is live

no excuse for bad tokenomics anymore

just wilful ignorance

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2015080627054534830

Imo, @immunefi at $100M FDV is very undervalued.

My thesis is that each time a new protocol is hacked, $IMU will pump (cause devs will start thinking about preventive measures, finally)

In fact, here's a ton of cryptos with zero value sitting at the same FDV, meanwhile $IMU has:

• $25B+ in losses prevented
• 300+ customers today (Aave, Chainlink, Arbitrum, Optimism, etc)
• 650+ protocols secured (Ethereum, Ripple, Polygon, Sky, etc)
• 60,000+ security researchers (the largest security community in crypto)
• $125m+ in onchain bounties paid

NFA ofc.

https://x.com/stacy_muur/status/2014911949885284673?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

Once @XEng unveiled their new 𝕏 algorithm, opinions flooded in from every corner.

It's funny, since the algorithm isn't fully open source and some parameters remain under wraps.

Means that every article or post diving deep into it can only offer educated guesses.

I think the smartest move is using machines to decode machines.

So, I forked the GitHub repository, ran it on Claude, and took a leaf out of @AbdelStark's works.

And here we are, a scoring meter for your posts, giving you an aggregated score for posts and accounts:

https://eli5-x-algo.vercel.app

Let me know your experience and suggestions in the comment.

https://x.com/Eli5defi/status/2014699456558727525

Prediction markets are the next Big Airdrop meta

There are already multiple platforms live, they raised hundreds of millions at valuations exceeding $10B - $20B

If you do not start now, it will be too late...

Tools, strategies, risk management, everything you need below👇

https://x.com/jussy_world/status/2015024636216623314?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

What Is Clawdbot? (And Why People Are Losing Their Minds Over It)

https://x.com/NoahEpstein_/status/2015073824799371370

How to Create Realistic AI Voices (Full System)

https://x.com/Mho_23/status/2015084338908385760