base won the L2 wars and it's not even close anymore

read this properly: $178M all-time revenue. 24% of total L2 revenue.

here's what i noticed. base isn't trying to be decentralized or community-owned or any of that stuff other L2s pretend to care about. it's just @coinbase chain.

centralized af. and it's winning BECAUSE of that

@arbitrum at $134M.@Optimism at $115M. the gap is WIDENING

the results are exactly what you'd expect when you have 100M+ users in one ecosystem

10M daily transactions now.
5B all-time since launch.

@baseapp launching. rumors of token or prediction markets or tokenized stocks.

doesn't even matter what it is, if it's integrated with coinbase's user base it'll do volume. distribution is the only moat that matters

$ARB and $OP had head starts. better tech arguably. more decentralized. doesn't matter. distribution beats tech every single time

this is the @BNBCHAIN playbook except executed way better. BNB Chain won through binance distribution. base feels too legitimate because coinbase is regulated

how i read this:
- if base launches token with coinbase distribution backing it's instantly top 20 by market cap. maybe top 10. retail will ape because coinbase makes it one-click easy
- base token rumors probably real. coinbase wants to capture more value from the ecosystem they built. token makes sense. incentivizes usage. creates new revenue stream. gives users ownership feel while coinbase maintains control
- the L2 narrative was supposed to be about scaling ethereum. instead it became about who has best distribution channel. base won that competition before it even started
- rollup tech is commoditized now. op stack is open source. anyone can spin up an L2. differentiation isn't technical anymore it's distribution and base has infinite distribution relative to competitors

market will eventually reprice this correctly.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2011062523936862257

US Macroeconomic Data:
- Producer Price Index (PPI; Nov):
- m/m: 0.2% (prior: 0.3%)
- y/y: 3% (prior: 2.7%);
- Core PPI: 3% y/y (prior: 2.7%);
- Retail Sales (Nov): 0.6% (prior: 0.2%)

vibecoding is simultaneously the best and worst thing happening to builders right now

shipped more in 2025 with AI tools than previous 3 years combined. that should feel like pure win but something's off

the barrier to entry dropped so catastrophically low that we're drowning in mediocre products. everyone can ship now. which means... everyone is shipping.

quality became optional because speed became everything

founders launching in days who can't debug their own code. beautiful UIs that break immediately. we optimized for time-to-ship and forgot to optimize for time-to-understand

here's the uncomfortable truth: we're getting really good at prompting and really bad at actual building. prompting is just another abstraction layer. are we learning or just getting better at talking to machines

the real skill shifted from "can you code" to "do you know what to build" and honestly that might be more valuable. product sense > technical execution in 2026. but that assumes the technical execution actually works when users touch it

jobs are weird now. junior dev positions are vanishing because AI can do junior work faster. but senior positions require understanding that you can't get without being junior first. the job/productivty/on the job flywheel is broken

vibecoding is perfect for MVPs. get idea out there fast test iterate learn. but at scale? when things break at 3am? you better actually understand your stack or you're screwed

everyone's shipping. lacking people in maintaining. technical debt is piling up at unprecedented rates because we can generate code much faster

two possible futures:

1) vibecoding democratizes building and we get explosion of innovation from people who couldn't code before
2) vibecoding creates fragile products that collapse under real usage and we learn why the old way existed

probably both happening simultaneously

speed is a feature not the goal but try telling that to someone who just shipped in 2 days what used to take 2 months

we're all learning in real time and pretending we have it figured out

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2009071313919291572

i'm leaning undervalued but need confirmation. watching OI.

$LIT at $2B FDV

airdrop happened dec 30. token's been bleeding.

hit $2.06B FDV yesterday.

the metrics post-airdrop tell a conflicting story:
- OI down 17% ($1.7B to $1.4B) but stabilized since airdrop. maintaining around $1.4B. just farming activity leaving
- fees down 58% ($468k to $190k) looks brutal. but zoom in, fees holding steady since dec 20. pre-airdrop decline not post. farmers extracted value then left. actual users staying
- volume down 57%. expected. free trades attracted farmers. OI and fees matter more than volume for perp dex valuation. volume is vanity metric here

airdrop behavior is actually interesting:
- 49.9% decreased (sold)
- 50.1% held
- 27.94% accumulated

that's way better than most airdrops where 80%+ dump immediately.

qwantify data shows small recipients sold. larger recipients held or accumulated. makes sense, farmers dumped. real users got size and held

the @HyperliquidX comparison is spicy here:
- HL has 6.6x OI ($9.2B vs $1.4B). that's the key metric. perp dex value = liquidity depth
- HL has 1.9x volume but lighter has no fees so volume naturally higher. misleading comparison
- HL has 13.3x fees ($15M vs $1.1M) but again lighter's fee structure different. can't compare directly
- yet HL has 10.6x FDV ($23.4B vs $2.2B)

if you value perp dexs on OI, which you should, $LIT looks 3-4x undervalued vs $HYPE.

but the bear cases looks increasingly threatening:
- competitors without tokens @nadoHQ @variational_io @edgeX_exchange @OstiumLabs @cascade_xyz @paradex @grvt_io @FX100Perp @hibachi_xyz taking share. why hold $LIT when you can farm airdrops elsewhere
- withdrawal issues post-launch exposed tech immaturity vs HL.
- 50% of airdrop recipients still holding. potential overhang.
- also @Lighter_xyz launched into weakening market. perp dex narrative peaked with hyperliquid.

my read:
- competitors without tokens siphon volume. tech issues reduce confidence
- long term undervalued. $2-2.5B FDV for perp dex with $1.4B OI and growing is mispriced vs hyperliquid at $23B
- the risk is thinking in terms of fair value when market doesn't care about fair. market cares about momentum narrative and execution

my gut feel is that its undervalued on fundamentals but market doesn't care about fundamentals right now, its needs catalyst and tech improvements.

$2B FDV isn't doomed.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2011401420306780315

i visualized the current landscape based on @Eli5defi thesis

my take here is the same, gen 1 lending is dead and 10/10 failed it spectacularly

the old age lending ideology is dying (or rather dead now)

if you need 150% collateral to borrow $100 its called negative credit creation.

you're not accessing new capital, rather you're inefficiently unlocking existing capital while locking up more. this model serves exactly one use case and that is recursive leverage for speculation

$17B liquidated in 24 hours. 1.6M accounts wiped.

accepting this accelerates progress.

in gen 2 defi we see 4 parallel evolutions happening simultaneously:

1) privacy layer: hedge funds can't operate when competitors see entire loan book liquidation points leverage ratios in real-time

@Arcium building confidential computing on solana.

@CantonNetwork created the network of networks for institutions.

2) cross-chain interoperability: abandoning wrapped assets for native messaging. @LayerZero_Core v2 and @chainlink CCIP replacing vulnerable multisig bridges

@lifiprotocol aggregating 30+ dexs 15+ bridges. $55B lifetime volume. any lending protocol becomes cross-chain instantly.

@SenjaLabs on kaia leveraging layerzero for omnichain lending. integrated into LINE mini dapps. defi lending inside web2 messaging app.

3) consumer abstraction: ERC-4337 account abstraction with passkeys. 70% consumer adoption. biometric wallet creation. gas sponsorship via paymasters.

@allscaleio raised $5M from YZi Labs. invoice financing for SMEs. settled $5M invoices first month.

@AviciMoney offering credit lines against crypto collateral. non-custodial visa card. spend against assets without selling

@ether_fi cash lets you borrow USDC against weETH while collateral earns staking rewards. yield offsets borrowing cost. potentially self-repaying credit line

4) reputation-based undercollateralized lending: only way to achieve capital efficiency and displace tradfi. soulbound tokens as non-transferable reputation badges. verified credit scores loan repayment history.

@ethos_network on base creating web of trust. vouching system where you stake reputation for others. social slashing if borrower defaults. credibility score unlocks undercollateralized loans because social cost of default acts as deterrent

@fluentxyz connect creating portable "prints" aggregating behavior across chains. strong solana repayment history proves trustworthiness to ethereum protocol instantly. solves cold start problem

@maplefinance $1B+ AUM in syrupUSDC. undercollateralized on-chain but secured by off-chain legal agreements. hybrid bridging code and law

@goldfinch_fi connecting crypto capital to emerging market fintechs. post-defaults launched goldfinch prime focusing SEC-compliant private credit funds

@0xfluid hit $3.4B TVL. combining lending vaults dex into single liquidity layer. enables higher LTV ratios through deeper instant liquidation liquidity

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2011943746364150057

replaying it like the…

curve wars
ohm forks
tomb finance
ve tokens
oracle
gamblefi
gamefi
deai
defai
ai agent launchpad
creator coin
robotics
rwa
memecoin
infofi
meme launchpad
stablecoin
perp dex
neobank
neo finance
metadao icos
privacy

short term pumpamentals
long term detrimental

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2012022288313696734?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

Early Alpha

https://x.com/0xvietnguyen/status/2012160924778696758

The ultimate guide to Articles on X

https://x.com/xcreators/status/2011957172821737574

Dune Dashboards are free ALPHA.

Here are 10 you need to be using daily.

🧵

https://x.com/Flowslikeosmo/status/1993695249949196358

Lmao you really can’t make this shit up

- Signal alignment with Hyperliquid
- Announce intention to buy but never buy $HYPE
- Finally buys
- Gets exposed for having delta neutral position
- Claims it’s an LP who did it to hedge his position
- Offers “KOLs” 5K+ monthly for X badge (don’t ever forget the sell-outs)
- Announces testnet metrics (washed)
- Proceeds to raise funds
- Own LPs deposits to raise fomo
- Extend raise (Insiders buy on polymarket and make 5-6 figure)
- Cancels extension (after they sell polymarket bets)
- Doesn’t refund users yet
- Announces launch on Solana

Extract.exe complete

Anything else I missed?

https://x.com/kirbyongeo/status/2012345842519376289

InfoFi Is Dead. These 10 Agencies Still Pay Creators

https://x.com/Deebs_DeFi/status/2012079772570956125

HOW 2 ARBITRAGE -> Polymarket

https://x.com/securezer0/status/2012249398903009595

Building a crypto card aggregator:

To compare cards like:

- Bybit
- Solcard
- CopperX
- Kast card

Thank you, Nairolf, for this idea.

I'm stealing your ideas.

https://x.com/Param_eth/status/2011119372119716182

One-liner summary of pre-token PERP DEXes

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2012739479933706670

: : [Issue] How Effective is Polymarket FDV Prediction Market?


https://x.com/FourPillarsFP/status/2012077911613063257

Best airdrops to farm in 2026 - Perp DEX sector.🪂👇

https://x.com/CryptoGideon_/status/2012964412622287022

i will present a bit of a contrarian take, polygon is NOT DEAD and it is becoming the open money stack.

@0xPolygon just spent $250M to stop being a blockchain and become a payments company

they acquired @Coinme and @0xsequence.

> coinme brings money-transmitter licenses (regulated fiat on/off ramps)
> sequence brings embedded wallets and one-click cross-chain orchestration. abstracts wallets swaps gas completely
calling it the open money stack.

blockchain rails + compliant fiat access + invisible onchain UX. this is vertical integration playbook

in 2025 polygon processed $1.4B payments services volume from @stripe, @blindpay and other merchants.

payments app transfers $7.7B total.

$364M jan → $1.43B dec

what polygon realized:
- being L2 scaling layer is commodity business.
- ZK tech is open source.
- sequencer fees compress toward zero. every chain offers similar speed and cost
- actual moat is owning the full payments stack from fiat in → blockchain settlement → fiat out with regulatory compliance and UX abstraction

stripe did $1T+ volume 2024.
polygon doing $1.4B on just merchant base payments. capturing even 1% of stripe's flow would be $10B. that's the TAM they're chasing

my read on polygon:
- this works if merchants actually want blockchain settlement
- stablecoins are faster and cheaper than card networks for cross-border
- instant settlement vs T+2
- lower fees than 2.9% interchange

but merchants are conservative. stripe works.

why change? polygon needs to prove 10x better not 10% better to overcome switching costs also commoditization risk. if every L2 does this polygon's early mover advantage disappears. arbitrum optimism base all have distribution and could replicate stack

my concerns as follows:

- if payments volume continues $57M → $239M trajectory and margins improve this validates thesis. if growth stagnates after acquisition that's concerning
- also wondering about tokenomics, where does $POL fit in payments stack. if token doesn't accrue value from payments growth then what's point
- stripe doesn't have token. successful payments companies monetize through basis points on flow.
- polygon's challenge: build sustainable business model not just revenue line

honestly respect the conviction. pivoting from L2 to payments company

most L2s still optimizing for TVL and transaction counts. polygon optimizing for regulated fiat settlement volume

one strategy is futures-focused. other is present-focused. we'll know which was right by end of 2026

market still values polygon as L2. should be valued as payments infrastructure if execution continues

if those deliver polygon rebuilt itself. if they don't this will be an expensive mistake

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2013126488384770197