I made 44% profit in one day thanks to the new Polymarket liquidity rewards

https://x.com/0xMaidez/status/2009600596504973358

that 265k bet on polymarket cooked so hard based on one simple thesis:
ALL METADAO ICO COOKS

nonetheless, 14x oversubbed, $86mil raised by @ranger_finance's ico on @MetaDAOProject.

i have my conviction well placed in this ico. we are in the ico season and people demand more ownership, futarchy wins.

Every verified launch via $META has traded well above its ICO price and every single one is still holding above ICO today.
$AVICI +687%
$UMBRA +370%
$OMFG +427%
$SOLO +80%

anything Solana, MetaDAO and revenue generating is the playbook.

now we will see more projects FOMO to want launch on MetaDAO and people will soon be max aping.

the aping sesaon has began.

some other launchpads which are interesting:
@echodotxyz by cobie, got acquired by coinbase
@legiondotcc recently did @solsticefi ico
@LaunchOnSoar similar model to @MetaDAOProject
@stardotfun did a first sale for @surfcashx cooked well, next up @fairscalexyz on 19 jan
@KaitoAI did some launches but didnt turn out wonderful
@buidlpad launches always cooks
@JupiterExchange DTF did $WET @humidifi sale sold out in 1 second, 100% botted, but i think launches there could cook

if you think the team can retire from the funds raised, wrong, they gotta ship, hit milestones/kpis to get paid and get their unlocks. if anything investors in the ico are probably richer than the team.

keep shipping keep printing, looking forward to $RNGR tge

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2010032412395483329

Yeah.. basically @solana is the only chain you need:

https://x.com/molusol/status/2010033918205161472

The Reach Allowance is REAL.
I made a site for you to check how much you have left...

https://ReachAllowance.com

No need to connect anything, just type a username or anyones name in and check

https://x.com/EasyEatsBodega/status/2010162012572279206

brutal lesson but necessary

lets analyse the @infinex token sale

$100m FDV $3.2M raised from 650 people missing the $5M target vs @ranger_finance raised $86m on @MetaDAOProject

meanwhile other ICOs in the past week: @TroveMarkets went on to raise $11m, @cascade_xyz sold out in 3 seoconds

infinex had synthetix founder. massive following. strong brand. but market said no

heres my take:
- app-layer tokens now priced on demonstrated cashflow
- people want to see revenue model
- fundamental problem was valuation vs demonstrated value
- patron NFT holders paid premium for early access implied equity-like upside but didnt turn up well

this accelerates the separation. protocols with real fee capture will launch successfully. protocols with vague utility stories will flounder regardless of team

defi valuation reset is real and it's accelerating

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2010679168120607084

2026 is consolidating into 3 really big bets where if one fails would result in a short term collapse of the bubble

1. data centers

anthropic, Xai scaling aggressively to 1M gpus. both plan to hit that target by Q2. the resulting models trained on this infrastructure needs to confirm compute scaling law is still effective. otherwise will indicate we need to explore a new model architecture. this is also dependent on energy infrastructure (power shell) being scaled though that’s going to be a problem for the next decade let alone this year.

2. memory

we only have enough memory this year to support 15GW worth of gpus while the hyperscalers are targeting 30-40 over the next 2 years. we’re cutting it kinda close here - if samsung, $MU or sk hynix fck up their production then this will stall bet number 1. also whoever secures majority of this memory capacity to create gpus wins the most within the constrained production capacity and right now that’s $NVDA

3. cheaper, more effective infra

nvidias latest gpu vera rubin is 5X more performant but importantly 4X more compute efficient meaning the inference costs have tanked - frontier intelligence for pennies! there will be an abundance of compute available to train but more importantly use ai this year, so jevons paradox needs to prove itself through rising demand. if that fails then the above two collapse. imo im least concerned about this one - i think agent harnesses and post training RL will continue to strengthen models.

very bullish

https://x.com/cryptopunk7213/status/2010053030625120366

Tier List of Chains that may Shut Down in 2026 🧵

https://x.com/Defi_Warhol/status/2010742901387727292

ok so this is actually interesting because like... everyone's been chasing ICOs, RWAs, Neobanks, AI agents and memecoins while insurance...

literal INSURANCE is just quietly building real cashflow onchain

the thing that gets me is reinsurance specifically, this appeared as a narrative a couple of years back and i think it will resurface to be the strongest pmf in crypto.

not even the retail insurance we think about. the insurance FOR insurance companies. $700B market. grows when shit goes wrong (which... always happens?) and @re just hit $400M TVL in under a year doing this.

no token yet. just stablecoins earning yield from actual premiums not some ponzi farm emissions

the reUSDe thing is smart, basically you take on the underwriting risk and get 16-25% APY when claims stay low. when we talk about ownerships coins by @MetaDAOProject like $AVICI its be your own bank meta... and now you're literally the insurance company.

i believe this will be one of those obvious in hindsight plays.

treasuries > bonds > as institutional grows bigger > reinsurance

watching this NEO FINANCE

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2010855830720266360

a very odd first 3 top performers:

1) social fi
2) lending
3) ICO
4) ICM
5) AI agents
6) privacy
7) data
8) buybacks
9) neobanks
10) defai
11) defi
12) prediction markets

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2010958256714494127

Spot DEX liquidity re-expanded without a narrative catalyst.

Over the last 24 hours, decentralized exchanges processed $9.1B in spot volume. Over the past 30 days, cumulative volume reached $303.0B, up +13.59% WoW. This expansion did not coincide with incentive programs, new token launches, or a broad risk-on tape.

The signal is structural.
Execution demand increased even as positioning remained cautious.

What changed was where flow cleared.

https://x.com/TheDeFiPlug/status/2010648020983984318

PERP DEXs & LAST NEWS

https://x.com/deTEfabulaNar_/status/2010755404360273931

heres the thing about all of these other altchains:

stablecoin launching own chains
neobanks launching own chains
banks launching own own chains
exchanges launching own chains
superapps launching own chains
games launching own chains
nft launching own chains

whats going to happen to these other chains

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2010589951050781116

base won the L2 wars and it's not even close anymore

read this properly: $178M all-time revenue. 24% of total L2 revenue.

here's what i noticed. base isn't trying to be decentralized or community-owned or any of that stuff other L2s pretend to care about. it's just @coinbase chain.

centralized af. and it's winning BECAUSE of that

@arbitrum at $134M.@Optimism at $115M. the gap is WIDENING

the results are exactly what you'd expect when you have 100M+ users in one ecosystem

10M daily transactions now.
5B all-time since launch.

@baseapp launching. rumors of token or prediction markets or tokenized stocks.

doesn't even matter what it is, if it's integrated with coinbase's user base it'll do volume. distribution is the only moat that matters

$ARB and $OP had head starts. better tech arguably. more decentralized. doesn't matter. distribution beats tech every single time

this is the @BNBCHAIN playbook except executed way better. BNB Chain won through binance distribution. base feels too legitimate because coinbase is regulated

how i read this:
- if base launches token with coinbase distribution backing it's instantly top 20 by market cap. maybe top 10. retail will ape because coinbase makes it one-click easy
- base token rumors probably real. coinbase wants to capture more value from the ecosystem they built. token makes sense. incentivizes usage. creates new revenue stream. gives users ownership feel while coinbase maintains control
- the L2 narrative was supposed to be about scaling ethereum. instead it became about who has best distribution channel. base won that competition before it even started
- rollup tech is commoditized now. op stack is open source. anyone can spin up an L2. differentiation isn't technical anymore it's distribution and base has infinite distribution relative to competitors

market will eventually reprice this correctly.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2011062523936862257

US Macroeconomic Data:
- Producer Price Index (PPI; Nov):
- m/m: 0.2% (prior: 0.3%)
- y/y: 3% (prior: 2.7%);
- Core PPI: 3% y/y (prior: 2.7%);
- Retail Sales (Nov): 0.6% (prior: 0.2%)

vibecoding is simultaneously the best and worst thing happening to builders right now

shipped more in 2025 with AI tools than previous 3 years combined. that should feel like pure win but something's off

the barrier to entry dropped so catastrophically low that we're drowning in mediocre products. everyone can ship now. which means... everyone is shipping.

quality became optional because speed became everything

founders launching in days who can't debug their own code. beautiful UIs that break immediately. we optimized for time-to-ship and forgot to optimize for time-to-understand

here's the uncomfortable truth: we're getting really good at prompting and really bad at actual building. prompting is just another abstraction layer. are we learning or just getting better at talking to machines

the real skill shifted from "can you code" to "do you know what to build" and honestly that might be more valuable. product sense > technical execution in 2026. but that assumes the technical execution actually works when users touch it

jobs are weird now. junior dev positions are vanishing because AI can do junior work faster. but senior positions require understanding that you can't get without being junior first. the job/productivty/on the job flywheel is broken

vibecoding is perfect for MVPs. get idea out there fast test iterate learn. but at scale? when things break at 3am? you better actually understand your stack or you're screwed

everyone's shipping. lacking people in maintaining. technical debt is piling up at unprecedented rates because we can generate code much faster

two possible futures:

1) vibecoding democratizes building and we get explosion of innovation from people who couldn't code before
2) vibecoding creates fragile products that collapse under real usage and we learn why the old way existed

probably both happening simultaneously

speed is a feature not the goal but try telling that to someone who just shipped in 2 days what used to take 2 months

we're all learning in real time and pretending we have it figured out

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2009071313919291572

i'm leaning undervalued but need confirmation. watching OI.

$LIT at $2B FDV

airdrop happened dec 30. token's been bleeding.

hit $2.06B FDV yesterday.

the metrics post-airdrop tell a conflicting story:
- OI down 17% ($1.7B to $1.4B) but stabilized since airdrop. maintaining around $1.4B. just farming activity leaving
- fees down 58% ($468k to $190k) looks brutal. but zoom in, fees holding steady since dec 20. pre-airdrop decline not post. farmers extracted value then left. actual users staying
- volume down 57%. expected. free trades attracted farmers. OI and fees matter more than volume for perp dex valuation. volume is vanity metric here

airdrop behavior is actually interesting:
- 49.9% decreased (sold)
- 50.1% held
- 27.94% accumulated

that's way better than most airdrops where 80%+ dump immediately.

qwantify data shows small recipients sold. larger recipients held or accumulated. makes sense, farmers dumped. real users got size and held

the @HyperliquidX comparison is spicy here:
- HL has 6.6x OI ($9.2B vs $1.4B). that's the key metric. perp dex value = liquidity depth
- HL has 1.9x volume but lighter has no fees so volume naturally higher. misleading comparison
- HL has 13.3x fees ($15M vs $1.1M) but again lighter's fee structure different. can't compare directly
- yet HL has 10.6x FDV ($23.4B vs $2.2B)

if you value perp dexs on OI, which you should, $LIT looks 3-4x undervalued vs $HYPE.

but the bear cases looks increasingly threatening:
- competitors without tokens @nadoHQ @variational_io @edgeX_exchange @OstiumLabs @cascade_xyz @paradex @grvt_io @FX100Perp @hibachi_xyz taking share. why hold $LIT when you can farm airdrops elsewhere
- withdrawal issues post-launch exposed tech immaturity vs HL.
- 50% of airdrop recipients still holding. potential overhang.
- also @Lighter_xyz launched into weakening market. perp dex narrative peaked with hyperliquid.

my read:
- competitors without tokens siphon volume. tech issues reduce confidence
- long term undervalued. $2-2.5B FDV for perp dex with $1.4B OI and growing is mispriced vs hyperliquid at $23B
- the risk is thinking in terms of fair value when market doesn't care about fair. market cares about momentum narrative and execution

my gut feel is that its undervalued on fundamentals but market doesn't care about fundamentals right now, its needs catalyst and tech improvements.

$2B FDV isn't doomed.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2011401420306780315

i visualized the current landscape based on @Eli5defi thesis

my take here is the same, gen 1 lending is dead and 10/10 failed it spectacularly

the old age lending ideology is dying (or rather dead now)

if you need 150% collateral to borrow $100 its called negative credit creation.

you're not accessing new capital, rather you're inefficiently unlocking existing capital while locking up more. this model serves exactly one use case and that is recursive leverage for speculation

$17B liquidated in 24 hours. 1.6M accounts wiped.

accepting this accelerates progress.

in gen 2 defi we see 4 parallel evolutions happening simultaneously:

1) privacy layer: hedge funds can't operate when competitors see entire loan book liquidation points leverage ratios in real-time

@Arcium building confidential computing on solana.

@CantonNetwork created the network of networks for institutions.

2) cross-chain interoperability: abandoning wrapped assets for native messaging. @LayerZero_Core v2 and @chainlink CCIP replacing vulnerable multisig bridges

@lifiprotocol aggregating 30+ dexs 15+ bridges. $55B lifetime volume. any lending protocol becomes cross-chain instantly.

@SenjaLabs on kaia leveraging layerzero for omnichain lending. integrated into LINE mini dapps. defi lending inside web2 messaging app.

3) consumer abstraction: ERC-4337 account abstraction with passkeys. 70% consumer adoption. biometric wallet creation. gas sponsorship via paymasters.

@allscaleio raised $5M from YZi Labs. invoice financing for SMEs. settled $5M invoices first month.

@AviciMoney offering credit lines against crypto collateral. non-custodial visa card. spend against assets without selling

@ether_fi cash lets you borrow USDC against weETH while collateral earns staking rewards. yield offsets borrowing cost. potentially self-repaying credit line

4) reputation-based undercollateralized lending: only way to achieve capital efficiency and displace tradfi. soulbound tokens as non-transferable reputation badges. verified credit scores loan repayment history.

@ethos_network on base creating web of trust. vouching system where you stake reputation for others. social slashing if borrower defaults. credibility score unlocks undercollateralized loans because social cost of default acts as deterrent

@fluentxyz connect creating portable "prints" aggregating behavior across chains. strong solana repayment history proves trustworthiness to ethereum protocol instantly. solves cold start problem

@maplefinance $1B+ AUM in syrupUSDC. undercollateralized on-chain but secured by off-chain legal agreements. hybrid bridging code and law

@goldfinch_fi connecting crypto capital to emerging market fintechs. post-defaults launched goldfinch prime focusing SEC-compliant private credit funds

@0xfluid hit $3.4B TVL. combining lending vaults dex into single liquidity layer. enables higher LTV ratios through deeper instant liquidation liquidity

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2011943746364150057