📣Saturday 07/13/2024, Macro Newsletter

📈Market Performance

📘US markets are up
- Dow Jones +0.62%, Nasdaq +0.63%, S&P 500 +0.55%, Russell 2000 +1.09%.
- 2-year US Treasury yield -5.8 bps at 4.468%, 10-year US Treasury yield -2.5 bps at 4.192%.
- Dollar Index -0.33% at 104.0997, VIX -3.56% at 12.46. Brent Crude -0.15% at $85.27.

📘Chinese concept stocks are motsly up
- Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index +0.60%, Pinduoduo +2.28%, Alibaba +1.44%, JD.com -1.68%, NetEase +1.15%, Li Auto -0.75%, XPeng +1.73%, NIO +4.06%.

📘European markets are up:
- FTSE 100 +0.36%, CAC 40 +1.27%, DAX +1.15%.
- EUR/USD +0.36% at 1.0907.

📘Asian and emerging markets are mixed:
- Nikkei 225 -2.45%, KOSPI -1.19%, SENSEX 30 +0.78%, Jakarta Composite +0.37%, Ho Chi Minh Index -0.24%, Mexican IPC +0.97%.

📍📍Top Story

📘China's June exports (in USD terms) grew 8.6% YoY, expected +7.4%, previous +7.6%.
June imports (in USD terms) fell 2.3% YoY, expected +4.2%, previous +1.8%.
Trade surplus $99.05 billion, previous $82.62 billion.

✍️Commentary: June exports outperformed imports, likely due to stronger external demand and rush exports. China's export performance outshone that of South Korea and Vietnam. Export structure saw an increase in raw materials and electromechanical products, with consumer electronics possibly peaking, and auto exports up over 10%, while labor-intensive products lagged. Volume growth outpaced price, with price expected to continue recovering.

📘PBOC released June 2024 financial data:
New RMB loans: 2.13 trillion yuan, market expectation 2.1327 trillion yuan, previous 950 billion yuan.
Total social financing: 3.2982 trillion yuan, market expectation 3.2155 trillion yuan, previous 2.0648 trillion yuan.
M2 YoY +6.2%, market expectation +6.7%, previous +7.0%; M1 YoY -5.0%, previous -4.2%; M0 YoY +11.7%.

✍️Commentary: China's June social financing growth continued to decline, with M1 further contracting and M2 growth also slowing. This is due to weak effective financing demand, crackdown on fund idling, bond market diverting deposits, reduced local government supervision of savings and loans, and economic structural transformation.

📘US June PPI YoY +2.6%, expected +2.3%, previous +2.4% (revised from +2.2%); MoM +0.2%, expected +0.1%, previous flat (revised from -0.2%).
Core PPI YoY +3%, expected +2.5%, previous +2.6% (revised from +2.3%); MoM +0.4%, expected +0.1%, previous +0.3% (revised from flat).

✍️Commentary: June core PPI YoY growth rose to its highest level since March last year, with the previous month’s PPI data significantly revised upwards. PPI increase was mainly driven by services, while the energy sector remained in deflation.

📅Key Event Reminders (GMT+8 )

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