Clashes in Kiev and Kherson (in South). Kharkov and many other cities and towns in the northeast of Ukraine are blocked by Russian army. Too early to judge, but I believe the Russian govt wanted more from the first day, and now blitzkrieg eventually turns into stationary warfare.
The position of Russian leadership is not clear. The press-secretary of Vladimir Putin said that Russia recognizes Mr. Zelensky as the president of Ukraine. In his turn, Mr. Lavrov, the minister of foreign affairs, claimed that Russia doesn't recognize the Ukrainian government. That looks strange.
The official Russian goals are:
1. Recognition of the Crimea as Russian territory by Ukraine
2. Recognition of DPR/LPR and the ending of their blockade
3. Restoration of water supply from Dnepr river to the Crimea
4. Neutral status of Ukraine
For now it seems Russia doesn't want to change the Ukrainian govt after all, but nobody can be sure. Vladimir Zelensky has already agreed on the neutral status of his country. Still, the mechanism of implementation of Russian demands is a mystery to me. Russia needs to rewrite Ukrainian constitution, change a lot of Ukrainian laws, make them work and get some guarantees that these laws won't be changed or cancelled later. I don't know what parliament and what government will do this.
The position of Russian leadership is not clear. The press-secretary of Vladimir Putin said that Russia recognizes Mr. Zelensky as the president of Ukraine. In his turn, Mr. Lavrov, the minister of foreign affairs, claimed that Russia doesn't recognize the Ukrainian government. That looks strange.
The official Russian goals are:
1. Recognition of the Crimea as Russian territory by Ukraine
2. Recognition of DPR/LPR and the ending of their blockade
3. Restoration of water supply from Dnepr river to the Crimea
4. Neutral status of Ukraine
For now it seems Russia doesn't want to change the Ukrainian govt after all, but nobody can be sure. Vladimir Zelensky has already agreed on the neutral status of his country. Still, the mechanism of implementation of Russian demands is a mystery to me. Russia needs to rewrite Ukrainian constitution, change a lot of Ukrainian laws, make them work and get some guarantees that these laws won't be changed or cancelled later. I don't know what parliament and what government will do this.
In general nothing has changed. A lot of fights near Kiev, where Russians try to capture all airfields around the city. Eventually Ukrainian troops leave Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts in attempt to save the capital, while Russians try to organize an encirclement of these forces.
The Russians don't enter the Ukrainian cities, rather block them. Usually the Ukrainian media write smth like "despite desperate assault of Russian occupants, %cityname% remains Ukrainian". The problem with this narrative is evident: to repel an assault you first need to face it. Sometimes Russians just pass through the cities without any resistance and proceed further.
According to the Ukrainian ministry of defense, this night Russians lost two Il-76 planes. Each of these transport planes carries 150 soldiers, so that's very important if it really happened. I didn't see a single photo of the incident, so now I think (and hope) it's just propaganda. Ukrainians post a lot about Russian heavy casualties, but proofs are absent.
I don't want to write about the sanctions and other consequences yet, because I expect more to come. For now Russian economy is stable. Even currency exchange rate is fine, just 83₽ for 1$. Although, I don't believe this (relative) calmness will last long.
The Russians don't enter the Ukrainian cities, rather block them. Usually the Ukrainian media write smth like "despite desperate assault of Russian occupants, %cityname% remains Ukrainian". The problem with this narrative is evident: to repel an assault you first need to face it. Sometimes Russians just pass through the cities without any resistance and proceed further.
According to the Ukrainian ministry of defense, this night Russians lost two Il-76 planes. Each of these transport planes carries 150 soldiers, so that's very important if it really happened. I didn't see a single photo of the incident, so now I think (and hope) it's just propaganda. Ukrainians post a lot about Russian heavy casualties, but proofs are absent.
I don't want to write about the sanctions and other consequences yet, because I expect more to come. For now Russian economy is stable. Even currency exchange rate is fine, just 83₽ for 1$. Although, I don't believe this (relative) calmness will last long.
Guys, recent days I was scrolling the feed all the time, from 11:00 to 04:30. That wasn't good idea, now I have much to do. So I looked through recent news quick and can make a conclusion: once again, nothing big happened yesterday. The Crimean group of Russians try to avoid casualties and slowly advance in three directions:
1. North in Zaporozhye oblast
2. West in Kherson and Nikolaev, the cities are blocked
3. East in Zaporozhye, Donetsk oblast
The DPR/LPR advance north and west. At such speed they'll meet the Crimean group and block Mariupol (the biggest port on Azov sea) within two days.
The north-eastern group assaults Kharkov. Many locals are pro-Russian there, so they give away the location of Ukrainian troops inside the city, while Ukrainian army uses them as a shield. I expect a lot of casualties there. Also Russian troops took some empty towns in Kharkov oblast, like Kupyansk.
The "V" group fights on the outskirts of Kiev.
There are a lot of rumors about the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, but the terms are unknown.
1. North in Zaporozhye oblast
2. West in Kherson and Nikolaev, the cities are blocked
3. East in Zaporozhye, Donetsk oblast
The DPR/LPR advance north and west. At such speed they'll meet the Crimean group and block Mariupol (the biggest port on Azov sea) within two days.
The north-eastern group assaults Kharkov. Many locals are pro-Russian there, so they give away the location of Ukrainian troops inside the city, while Ukrainian army uses them as a shield. I expect a lot of casualties there. Also Russian troops took some empty towns in Kharkov oblast, like Kupyansk.
The "V" group fights on the outskirts of Kiev.
There are a lot of rumors about the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, but the terms are unknown.
Looked through the news quick. LPR controls Lugansk oblast. Mariupol in Donetsk oblast is blocked. Kharkov is under assault, the main column of Russian troops passed through it and reached Kiev, so the capital of Ukraine is surrounded.
Cherson and Nikolaev are blocked, the Russians try to negotiate their peaceful surrender.
The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Gomel failed yesterday, but the parties agreed to meet again.
Cherson and Nikolaev are blocked, the Russians try to negotiate their peaceful surrender.
The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Gomel failed yesterday, but the parties agreed to meet again.
I do not like official maps, because they don't show the real scale of Russian progress. Here the map-makers showed the presence of the Russian troops by hatching territories.
Btw, I watched Ukrainian news/propaganda, and it was very funny experience. Everything looks professional, but too emotional for me. They really think that their victory is near, which is funny. I have my doubts
Btw, I watched Ukrainian news/propaganda, and it was very funny experience. Everything looks professional, but too emotional for me. They really think that their victory is near, which is funny. I have my doubts
Forwarded from Lebanese News and Updates
New article
With the combination of over-optimism, neglect, and the lack of motivation, the Russian army faced a series of operational failures that consequently displayed its many weakness points to its Western adversaries.
This article discusses a few of them: https://telegra.ph/War-in-Ukraine-What-Russia-Failed-03-02
PDF available on t.iss.one/LebPublications/10
With the combination of over-optimism, neglect, and the lack of motivation, the Russian army faced a series of operational failures that consequently displayed its many weakness points to its Western adversaries.
This article discusses a few of them: https://telegra.ph/War-in-Ukraine-What-Russia-Failed-03-02
PDF available on t.iss.one/LebPublications/10
Telegraph
War in Ukraine: What Russia Failed Early On
This paper is an amateur effort to discuss a series of shortcomings by Russia's military and political leadership in the first 4 days of the Ukraine War. It discusses OPSEC, tactical operations, and war media. Several ideas might have been missed, and others…
I'm not writing here because I have a strange feeling that the country I once knew doesn't exist anymore. I wish someone could give me 101 course, but it is not written and I doubt it will appear soon.
1. War. Minor successes in different places, no operative goal was reached. The main reason of this failure is an attempt to avoid casualties among the civillians. I think sooner or later Russian military command will realize that the clock is ticking and turn Ukraine in a massive grave for Ukrainians, Russians, pro-Russian Ukrainians and whoever lives there. It's not the only option, maybe the blockade of big cities will help, but I keep in mind that normality has gone and everything can happen.
2. Economy. It functions by inertia. When the west arrested approximately one half of Central Bank's reserves, the dollar exchange rate is changing somewhere between 125-140₽, so the vast majority of western companies left the market forever or "temporarily", from apparel to microelectronics (and everything in between). The operations with foreign currencies strictly limited, the stock exchanges don't operate, every business dependent on western import is on a verge of bankruptcy. Same goes for services.
When on 24th of February I said that the operation is mistake, and there would be huge consequences, I meant smth like that. Btw, since the ban of western and pro-western media in Russia and implementation of military censorship I should say that everything written here is my personal opinion, and if I'm lying it's not intentionally☺️
1. War. Minor successes in different places, no operative goal was reached. The main reason of this failure is an attempt to avoid casualties among the civillians. I think sooner or later Russian military command will realize that the clock is ticking and turn Ukraine in a massive grave for Ukrainians, Russians, pro-Russian Ukrainians and whoever lives there. It's not the only option, maybe the blockade of big cities will help, but I keep in mind that normality has gone and everything can happen.
2. Economy. It functions by inertia. When the west arrested approximately one half of Central Bank's reserves, the dollar exchange rate is changing somewhere between 125-140₽, so the vast majority of western companies left the market forever or "temporarily", from apparel to microelectronics (and everything in between). The operations with foreign currencies strictly limited, the stock exchanges don't operate, every business dependent on western import is on a verge of bankruptcy. Same goes for services.
When on 24th of February I said that the operation is mistake, and there would be huge consequences, I meant smth like that. Btw, since the ban of western and pro-western media in Russia and implementation of military censorship I should say that everything written here is my personal opinion, and if I'm lying it's not intentionally☺️
Today Putin gave yet another speech about the military operation in Ukraine and economic hardships caused by the western sanctions. The economic part of the message looks mixed. The govt is ready to provide the support for Russian business and simultaniously give it more freedom. Soon we'll find out how this will work.
As for the military operation, it proceeds further. After the failure of blitzkrieg in the first 4 days, Russian army holds the territorial gains and slowly takes control over the cities which were blocked before. Today I saw some reports about successes in the city of Mariupol. Probably Kharkov will be the next.
I'm a bit sceptical about the nuclear threat Ukraine possesed to Russia, but the directions of Russian assault show that people in the Kremlin really care about it. For now Russian army holds Chernobyl and Zaporozhskaya nuclear plants. Also one Ukrainian channel I read claimed that the Russians were seen in Vradievka village, which is close to Yuzhnaya nuclear plant. I wonder how many times Zelensky regreted he mentioned the possibility of making a nuclear bomb. It didn't look as well-planned claim, but it became the last straw for Putin's patience.
As for the military operation, it proceeds further. After the failure of blitzkrieg in the first 4 days, Russian army holds the territorial gains and slowly takes control over the cities which were blocked before. Today I saw some reports about successes in the city of Mariupol. Probably Kharkov will be the next.
I'm a bit sceptical about the nuclear threat Ukraine possesed to Russia, but the directions of Russian assault show that people in the Kremlin really care about it. For now Russian army holds Chernobyl and Zaporozhskaya nuclear plants. Also one Ukrainian channel I read claimed that the Russians were seen in Vradievka village, which is close to Yuzhnaya nuclear plant. I wonder how many times Zelensky regreted he mentioned the possibility of making a nuclear bomb. It didn't look as well-planned claim, but it became the last straw for Putin's patience.
Meta recognized as extremist organisation by the court. The reason is they allowed to insult and threaten Russians. After realizing that such allowance doesn't look great managers of Meta just let hate speech towards Russian Army for Ukrainians. Still it was too late and in fact everybody on Facebook could insult Russians anyway (even before the start of the military operation, tbh).
Facebook and Instagram are blocked for a couple of days already, there are no plans to turn off Whatsapp for now.
Previously Russia banned all significant western media in the country, such as BBC, Deutsche Welle, Radio Liberty etc. Russian non-state media with independent agenda either stopped working or were banned too. Others turned into propagandist leaflets.
Also the new bill concerning elections has passed. It strictly limits the opportunity to become a member of the election boards of different levels for independent observers. I don't think it's a big problem since every significant Russian opposition politician is either abroad or in jail, so I don't expect any competative elections in foreseable future.
Yet another disaster is Russia leaving the Council of Europe. That means the European Court of Human Rights can't judge Russian authorities anymore. Now every Russian who crossed a corrupted official is left without international support and can rely only on limited number of activists in Russia.
So it goes.
Facebook and Instagram are blocked for a couple of days already, there are no plans to turn off Whatsapp for now.
Previously Russia banned all significant western media in the country, such as BBC, Deutsche Welle, Radio Liberty etc. Russian non-state media with independent agenda either stopped working or were banned too. Others turned into propagandist leaflets.
Also the new bill concerning elections has passed. It strictly limits the opportunity to become a member of the election boards of different levels for independent observers. I don't think it's a big problem since every significant Russian opposition politician is either abroad or in jail, so I don't expect any competative elections in foreseable future.
Yet another disaster is Russia leaving the Council of Europe. That means the European Court of Human Rights can't judge Russian authorities anymore. Now every Russian who crossed a corrupted official is left without international support and can rely only on limited number of activists in Russia.
So it goes.
Putin ordered to sell gas in Russian currency. That means European buyers must sell € and $, buy ₽ and spend it on Russian gas. Both $/€ exchange rate has decreased, now 1$=100₽. The operations with foreign currency are limited until the end of the military operation in Ukraine, so now it's hard to predict the consequences of Putin's move in the long run.
The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are going on simultaneously with the fighting. Turkey and Belarus became mediators, negotiations were held in Gomel, Antalya and Istanbul. Today in Istanbul, Russia suffered a major defeat in the information war. Mr. Medinsky, the head of the Russian delegation, recounted the demands of the Ukrainian side, after which he announced the suspension of hostilities in the Kiev and Chernigov regions. Medinsky also assured journalists that Russia is not against Ukraine's entry into the European Union.
The Russian media did not at first give Medinsky's full speech. Many viewers and readers are under the impression that Russia agrees to the Ukrainian demands and is also withdrawing Group V from the Kiev area. The reality turned out to be a little different. Russian demands are in the process of preparation, and (probably) the Ukrainian proposals will be challenged. The withdrawal of Russian troops near Kiev is not planned. Now the main battles are taking place in eastern Ukraine, in Mariupol (south) and the vicinity of Izyum (north). After the completion of these battles, the Russian army will have to take the Ukrainian army in the Donbass into the pocket. Russia has no forces for a simultaneous offensive in many different areas.
Unfortunately, the actions of Medinsky and the Russian media will have consequences.
1. Abroad, Russia will be considered a weakened country. Therefore, we can expect increased assistance to Ukraine, as well as an increase in sanctions pressure
2. The growth of the morale of the Ukrainian army, the readiness of Ukrainian society to endure "a little more" until victory, or at least until worthy peace conditions.
3. Decreased morale of the Russian army and corps of the DPR/LPR. "We fight and win, but the politicians have sold everything behind our backs".
4. Loss of the pro-Russian population in Ukraine. Now no one will help the Russians, because Russia's plans for Ukraine have become even more incomprehensible. Unfortunately, if the previous points can somehow be leveled, then this one will remain at least until some decisive victories in several regions.
The Russian media did not at first give Medinsky's full speech. Many viewers and readers are under the impression that Russia agrees to the Ukrainian demands and is also withdrawing Group V from the Kiev area. The reality turned out to be a little different. Russian demands are in the process of preparation, and (probably) the Ukrainian proposals will be challenged. The withdrawal of Russian troops near Kiev is not planned. Now the main battles are taking place in eastern Ukraine, in Mariupol (south) and the vicinity of Izyum (north). After the completion of these battles, the Russian army will have to take the Ukrainian army in the Donbass into the pocket. Russia has no forces for a simultaneous offensive in many different areas.
Unfortunately, the actions of Medinsky and the Russian media will have consequences.
1. Abroad, Russia will be considered a weakened country. Therefore, we can expect increased assistance to Ukraine, as well as an increase in sanctions pressure
2. The growth of the morale of the Ukrainian army, the readiness of Ukrainian society to endure "a little more" until victory, or at least until worthy peace conditions.
3. Decreased morale of the Russian army and corps of the DPR/LPR. "We fight and win, but the politicians have sold everything behind our backs".
4. Loss of the pro-Russian population in Ukraine. Now no one will help the Russians, because Russia's plans for Ukraine have become even more incomprehensible. Unfortunately, if the previous points can somehow be leveled, then this one will remain at least until some decisive victories in several regions.
Speaking of gas for rubles. Today it became more or less clear how the scheme will work. European countries will pay for Russian gas to Gazprombank in Germany in Euro/Dollars, and the bank will exchange western currencies to Rubles. Formally nobody will break the sanctions regime and everyone will meet Russian requirements.
Am I happy? Well, I don't know. One can say the mere talks about breaking gas contracts (the currency is very important point in such documents) undermine Russian reputation. But the West stole $300bln from us overnight by arrest of Russian reserves, so it's not for them to judge. As for European desire to diminish dependency on Russian gas or even get rid of it completely, they were trying to do so as fast as they could anyway. Talking about positive sides, this nervous situation on gas markets caused the rise of prices, so there is a chance that Russia will earn a bit more money.
Am I happy? Well, I don't know. One can say the mere talks about breaking gas contracts (the currency is very important point in such documents) undermine Russian reputation. But the West stole $300bln from us overnight by arrest of Russian reserves, so it's not for them to judge. As for European desire to diminish dependency on Russian gas or even get rid of it completely, they were trying to do so as fast as they could anyway. Talking about positive sides, this nervous situation on gas markets caused the rise of prices, so there is a chance that Russia will earn a bit more money.
About Russian retreat from Kiev. I don't want to share my emotions, because it doesn't help. Let's concentrate on facts.
1. Russian troops came to Kiev, took some airfields around it
2. Russians inflicted heavy damage to Ukrainian troops in the area
3. Russians distorted Ukrainian supply lines in central parts of the country, the most important territory in that respect
4. Russian troops were small in numbers and couldn't take Kiev in a fight. [Whether the Kremlin expected peaceful surrender of Kiev or "V group" had limited goals from the start is unknown. I think there was the desire to capture the capital, but Ukrainian resistance was underestimated]
5. While Russian army was near Kiev, Russian aviation destroyed a lot of oil/gasoline storages. So Ukrainian ability to relocate troops is seriously reduced. The cutting of supply lines in Central Ukraine lost part of its significance
6. V group retreated in full order, it wasn't defeated. Soon we will see these troops somewhere else, most probably in the Eastern Ukraine
Losing ground always looks painful, but the war is not over. Many battles lie ahead
1. Russian troops came to Kiev, took some airfields around it
2. Russians inflicted heavy damage to Ukrainian troops in the area
3. Russians distorted Ukrainian supply lines in central parts of the country, the most important territory in that respect
4. Russian troops were small in numbers and couldn't take Kiev in a fight. [Whether the Kremlin expected peaceful surrender of Kiev or "V group" had limited goals from the start is unknown. I think there was the desire to capture the capital, but Ukrainian resistance was underestimated]
5. While Russian army was near Kiev, Russian aviation destroyed a lot of oil/gasoline storages. So Ukrainian ability to relocate troops is seriously reduced. The cutting of supply lines in Central Ukraine lost part of its significance
6. V group retreated in full order, it wasn't defeated. Soon we will see these troops somewhere else, most probably in the Eastern Ukraine
Losing ground always looks painful, but the war is not over. Many battles lie ahead
Today Vladimir Zhirinovsky died.
The eternal leader of LDPR party, which became the first non-communist registered party in the USSR (that's why they are liberal democrats. In comparisson with Communist party of the USSR they are). For a long time Zhirinovsky had rather controversial image. Many people didn't like his populism, soft nationalism, expansionism, the leftists didn't like his criticism of the Soviet times, but Zhirinovsky (a Jew, ironically) became the voice of humiliated ethnic Russians, who suffered a lot through XXc, lost two empires and now live in poor economic conditions.
The LDPR attracted more young people, more ethnic Russians, and more males than other parties. Also LDPR is the party of small business owners, sometimes with criminal ties. So if you think that the social base of the LDPR is based, you are correct.
Zhirinovsky always supported the unification of the lands where Russians live. Unfortunetely his health conditions worsened before the start of the military operation in Ukraine, and Russia lost a bright speaker in times we need him most.
#obituary
The eternal leader of LDPR party, which became the first non-communist registered party in the USSR (that's why they are liberal democrats. In comparisson with Communist party of the USSR they are). For a long time Zhirinovsky had rather controversial image. Many people didn't like his populism, soft nationalism, expansionism, the leftists didn't like his criticism of the Soviet times, but Zhirinovsky (a Jew, ironically) became the voice of humiliated ethnic Russians, who suffered a lot through XXc, lost two empires and now live in poor economic conditions.
The LDPR attracted more young people, more ethnic Russians, and more males than other parties. Also LDPR is the party of small business owners, sometimes with criminal ties. So if you think that the social base of the LDPR is based, you are correct.
Zhirinovsky always supported the unification of the lands where Russians live. Unfortunetely his health conditions worsened before the start of the military operation in Ukraine, and Russia lost a bright speaker in times we need him most.
#obituary
Are you sure you can convert rubles to dollars using official currency exchange rate? The spread doesn't look good. I would say "real" exchange rate is about 90₽ per dollar. It's not much taking into account the circumstances, though.
#economy
#economy
The flagship of the Black sea fleet, missile cruiser "Moskva" was lost. There are no photos or videos of the incident. Some Ukrainian sources claim that the ship was hit by two missiles. Russian sources just mention an explosion. The crew was evacuated.
I've already seen some copium pills, like the ship was old anyway (which is true), but the harsh reality is Russia can't replace her anytime soon, and the Black sea fleet lost a lot of its military potential. Also the strike shows that Ukrainian military with western satellite intel can effectively counter Russian forces.
UPD. According to Russian MoD, the ship wasn't sunk, but was damaged due "the fire".
UPD, 23:50. She sunk in the Black sea. The crew was saved, according to official sources. It's your choice whether to believe them or not. The crew was about 500 men, as far as I understood. I hope they survived
I've already seen some copium pills, like the ship was old anyway (which is true), but the harsh reality is Russia can't replace her anytime soon, and the Black sea fleet lost a lot of its military potential. Also the strike shows that Ukrainian military with western satellite intel can effectively counter Russian forces.
UPD. According to Russian MoD, the ship wasn't sunk, but was damaged due "the fire".
UPD, 23:50. She sunk in the Black sea. The crew was saved, according to official sources. It's your choice whether to believe them or not. The crew was about 500 men, as far as I understood. I hope they survived
I really like the words "Mariupol is under our total control except Azovstal plant". Not so total, then. Anyway, the living quarters of Mariupol, its port and and some factories are liberated by the DPR. The city has a mayor for two weeks already, the guy is from "pro-Russian" Ukrainian party.
The city lost the majority of its population. The scale of destruction is very huge. Great redevelopment is needed. Now it's impossible to start it normally, because Ukrainian troops still have ground in Mariupol. Also the siege distracts thousands of Russian forces from Donbass battle. Still, I like the idea of a siege more, because the lives of Russian soldiers must be a top priority.
The city lost the majority of its population. The scale of destruction is very huge. Great redevelopment is needed. Now it's impossible to start it normally, because Ukrainian troops still have ground in Mariupol. Also the siege distracts thousands of Russian forces from Donbass battle. Still, I like the idea of a siege more, because the lives of Russian soldiers must be a top priority.
The deputy of the commander of Central Military District gave an interesting speech about "the second phase" of operation. Now it's official: we go for Donbass and South Ukraine. Usually the term South Ukraine means Odessa, Nikolaev, Zaporozhye, Kherson. The last one is the only regional centre under the control of Russian forces (not counting Donetsk and Lugansk for obvious reasons).
The control over South Ukraine will cut off the Ukrainian govt from the sea and give Russian troops access to Transnistria, unrecognized state on official Moldovan territory with pro-Russian population.
There are three problems with such goals of "the second phase".
1. Russian army is small in numbers. I know it sounds funny, but it's true. The Ukrainian govt struggles for survival, recently it declared the third wave of mobilization. Russian govt in its turn pretends that war in Ukraine is like Iraqi campaign for the US. Battle for Donbass means large encirclement operation which demands quantitave superiority. Russia doesn't have it. That is one of the reasons Russian troops advance that slow.
2. All cities in Ukraine turned into "Schwerpunkts". The battles in cities are inevitable. They bring many losses, they are time-consuming, they bring destruction of buildings and city infrastructure. Most importantly, city warfare means deaths of civillians, many of them were and are pro-Russian people.
3. Politics. The war planned to be short. Now it's a significant conflict which covers big territory and lasts rather long. Such scale was a surprise for Russian decision-makers (they deny it, but...), and now they have to support the people on Russia-controlled territory, organize pro-Russian authorities etc. What will happen next to these territories? Will they join Russia, or they will be autonomies inside pro-Russian Ukraine (whatever it means). The political goals and exit strategy of Russia look extremely vague.
P.S. All my messages about war look pessimistic, I know. In general Russian army is winning now anyway. But there are a lot of problems, and I think it's important to describe them
The control over South Ukraine will cut off the Ukrainian govt from the sea and give Russian troops access to Transnistria, unrecognized state on official Moldovan territory with pro-Russian population.
There are three problems with such goals of "the second phase".
1. Russian army is small in numbers. I know it sounds funny, but it's true. The Ukrainian govt struggles for survival, recently it declared the third wave of mobilization. Russian govt in its turn pretends that war in Ukraine is like Iraqi campaign for the US. Battle for Donbass means large encirclement operation which demands quantitave superiority. Russia doesn't have it. That is one of the reasons Russian troops advance that slow.
2. All cities in Ukraine turned into "Schwerpunkts". The battles in cities are inevitable. They bring many losses, they are time-consuming, they bring destruction of buildings and city infrastructure. Most importantly, city warfare means deaths of civillians, many of them were and are pro-Russian people.
3. Politics. The war planned to be short. Now it's a significant conflict which covers big territory and lasts rather long. Such scale was a surprise for Russian decision-makers (they deny it, but...), and now they have to support the people on Russia-controlled territory, organize pro-Russian authorities etc. What will happen next to these territories? Will they join Russia, or they will be autonomies inside pro-Russian Ukraine (whatever it means). The political goals and exit strategy of Russia look extremely vague.
P.S. All my messages about war look pessimistic, I know. In general Russian army is winning now anyway. But there are a lot of problems, and I think it's important to describe them