Why Kazakhstan is important for Russia?
1. Geography. Kazakhstan and Russia share the longest border in the world, 7598km. In case of refugees influx or terrorist infiltriation this border will be hard to protect. Also it's important that Kazakhstan separates Russia from less developed Central Asian states and at least in part absorbs their labour migrants. Furthermore, Kazakhstan provides China transit routes to the European Union in addition to Trans-Siberian railway.
2. Politics. Present-day regime in Kazakhstan is relatively friendly to Russia. Both countries are members of Eurasian union (common market), Commonwealth of Independent States (open borders before covid era), and now famous Collective Security Treaty Organization, a defensive military alliance of some post-soviet states led by Russia. Despite close ties with Russia, Kazakh elites always try to diversify their relations. Kazakhstan represents itself as one of the Turkic nations, which pleases Turkey. For China Kazakhstan is a reliable oil supplier and transit country, part of "Silk road" initiative. Western companies also have their piece of Kazakh oil pie, the biggest oil field in the country belongs to subsdiary of Chevron and Kazakh government.
3. The Russians. Russian language is the second official language in the country, and Russian minority numbered 3,47mln people, 18% of country population. Mostly they live in Northern parts of Kazakhstan. It should be noted that Russians in Kazakhstan face substantial discrimination in civil service, political representation and business. A lot of ethnic Russians left Kazakhstan since the collapse of the Soviet union.
4. Military. Russia has 7 important military installments in Kazakhstan. The most famous are Baykonur, Russian space port, and some parts of rocket launch site called Kapustin Yar. Also Russia has one airbase, some radars and rocket polygons in different parts of Kazakhstan.
5. Commodities. Oil is Kazakhstan's major export, and Russian companies have some shares in different oil fields. Still, Russian involvement in Kazakh oil industry is limited. What really matters is uranium. In 2020 Kazakhstan mined 19800 tons of uranium, that's 42% of the world production. Approximately 20% of uranium production of Kazakhstan is in hands of Rosatom. Needless to say, that violent attempt of regime change in Kazakhstan can blew a large hole of international security. Nobody wants a "dirty bomb" on his doorstep.
#international #kazakhstan
1. Geography. Kazakhstan and Russia share the longest border in the world, 7598km. In case of refugees influx or terrorist infiltriation this border will be hard to protect. Also it's important that Kazakhstan separates Russia from less developed Central Asian states and at least in part absorbs their labour migrants. Furthermore, Kazakhstan provides China transit routes to the European Union in addition to Trans-Siberian railway.
2. Politics. Present-day regime in Kazakhstan is relatively friendly to Russia. Both countries are members of Eurasian union (common market), Commonwealth of Independent States (open borders before covid era), and now famous Collective Security Treaty Organization, a defensive military alliance of some post-soviet states led by Russia. Despite close ties with Russia, Kazakh elites always try to diversify their relations. Kazakhstan represents itself as one of the Turkic nations, which pleases Turkey. For China Kazakhstan is a reliable oil supplier and transit country, part of "Silk road" initiative. Western companies also have their piece of Kazakh oil pie, the biggest oil field in the country belongs to subsdiary of Chevron and Kazakh government.
3. The Russians. Russian language is the second official language in the country, and Russian minority numbered 3,47mln people, 18% of country population. Mostly they live in Northern parts of Kazakhstan. It should be noted that Russians in Kazakhstan face substantial discrimination in civil service, political representation and business. A lot of ethnic Russians left Kazakhstan since the collapse of the Soviet union.
4. Military. Russia has 7 important military installments in Kazakhstan. The most famous are Baykonur, Russian space port, and some parts of rocket launch site called Kapustin Yar. Also Russia has one airbase, some radars and rocket polygons in different parts of Kazakhstan.
5. Commodities. Oil is Kazakhstan's major export, and Russian companies have some shares in different oil fields. Still, Russian involvement in Kazakh oil industry is limited. What really matters is uranium. In 2020 Kazakhstan mined 19800 tons of uranium, that's 42% of the world production. Approximately 20% of uranium production of Kazakhstan is in hands of Rosatom. Needless to say, that violent attempt of regime change in Kazakhstan can blew a large hole of international security. Nobody wants a "dirty bomb" on his doorstep.
#international #kazakhstan
I'm really tired of these rumors about war in Ukraine. The probability of Russians attacking first is very low. The probability that Ukrainians start offensive operation in Donbass and Russia will have to retaliate is higher.
Still, majority of Ukrainian politicians don't want the war, because Ukrainian economy cannot endure the conflict against Russia. It's not about obvious inability of Ukrainian troops to fight against full-scale Russian intervention.
In recent two years Ukrainian economy faced many challenges, especially in energy sector, and now every Ukrainian action in military sphere will lead to rolling blackouts without Russian gas and oil. This dependency is aggravated by spoiled relations between Belarus and Ukraine. I do not believe that in war scenario Belarus will let Russians attack Ukraine from its territory. Nevertheless, the transit of Russian oil and gas through Belarus will be stopped.
#international #Ukraine
Still, majority of Ukrainian politicians don't want the war, because Ukrainian economy cannot endure the conflict against Russia. It's not about obvious inability of Ukrainian troops to fight against full-scale Russian intervention.
In recent two years Ukrainian economy faced many challenges, especially in energy sector, and now every Ukrainian action in military sphere will lead to rolling blackouts without Russian gas and oil. This dependency is aggravated by spoiled relations between Belarus and Ukraine. I do not believe that in war scenario Belarus will let Russians attack Ukraine from its territory. Nevertheless, the transit of Russian oil and gas through Belarus will be stopped.
#international #Ukraine
The talks between Russia and NATO are very unusual. In December the Russian govt published a list of demands for the US. It includes:
1. Enlargement of NATO must come to an end
2. The US and Russia must not use third parties to prepare attacks on each other
3. NATO must not build any military infrastructure on post-soviet territory, except Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which are members of NATO. Also NATO must not develop military cooperation with post-soviet countries.
4. The US and Russia must deploy nuclear weapons only within their national borders
5. The US and Russia should consider the deployment of missiles only within their national borders
This list is incomplete, but you got the general idea. It looks like Russia waged war against NATO, won this war and now writes a peace treaty. But in reality none of this happened, so it's easy to predict the American total rejection of Russian demands. The unilateral announcement of this list also looks strange. Usually the diplomats of interested parties discuss such important documents for a long time, until the final paper, approved by everyone, appears. Americans could refuse to discuss Russian demands, but they considered it too risky. So the talks started, lasted one month and now the Americans promise to send their proposals. Interestingly enough, they won't be public. Probably because Americans decided to make some concessions in Ukraine and Georgia, after all. It is evident that Western European members of NATO do not like the perspective of Ukraine and Georgia as NATO member countries, so nobody will accept them anyway. Such things cannot be said in public, because the image of NATO will suffer.
Western media described Russian demands as ultimatum. After unsatisfactory end of the talks, Western observers wait for Russian invasion in Ukraine. In fact nobody in Russia said to NATO "accept or we will attack". Still, foreign investors withdraw their money from both Russia and Ukraine, while the escalation of Ukrainian conflict is barely possible.
#international #Ukraine #US
1. Enlargement of NATO must come to an end
2. The US and Russia must not use third parties to prepare attacks on each other
3. NATO must not build any military infrastructure on post-soviet territory, except Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which are members of NATO. Also NATO must not develop military cooperation with post-soviet countries.
4. The US and Russia must deploy nuclear weapons only within their national borders
5. The US and Russia should consider the deployment of missiles only within their national borders
This list is incomplete, but you got the general idea. It looks like Russia waged war against NATO, won this war and now writes a peace treaty. But in reality none of this happened, so it's easy to predict the American total rejection of Russian demands. The unilateral announcement of this list also looks strange. Usually the diplomats of interested parties discuss such important documents for a long time, until the final paper, approved by everyone, appears. Americans could refuse to discuss Russian demands, but they considered it too risky. So the talks started, lasted one month and now the Americans promise to send their proposals. Interestingly enough, they won't be public. Probably because Americans decided to make some concessions in Ukraine and Georgia, after all. It is evident that Western European members of NATO do not like the perspective of Ukraine and Georgia as NATO member countries, so nobody will accept them anyway. Such things cannot be said in public, because the image of NATO will suffer.
Western media described Russian demands as ultimatum. After unsatisfactory end of the talks, Western observers wait for Russian invasion in Ukraine. In fact nobody in Russia said to NATO "accept or we will attack". Still, foreign investors withdraw their money from both Russia and Ukraine, while the escalation of Ukrainian conflict is barely possible.
#international #Ukraine #US
I didn't write here because I was (and am) busy. Sorry, guys.
This "Russian invasion" story is not interesting for me. The only important part are the real consequences of the media hysteria. There are many, and, ironically, Ukraine suffered more than Russia so far.
Foreign investors ran away, the National bank of Ukraine spent about $2bln to support Ukrainian currency, the embassies of western countries moved from Kiev to Lvov, a city located close to Polish border, and the diplomats do not provide any services there. The international insurance companies stripped away their guarantees for planes in Ukrainian airspace, and the Ukrainian govt spent about $500mln to avoid flight bans. In latest two weeks Ukraine looks like a subject of wide international sanctions.
As for Russia, for now the only real consequence was the change of ruble exchange rate. In recent month 1$ rose from 74₽ to 79₽, the current price is 76₽. I can't call this change a significant one.
All western politicians understand that nothing will happen to them even in the worse scenario, where Russia attacks Ukraine officially and takes Kiev. All these speeches about Russia help Biden, Johnson and others to distract attention from local problems and support American military-industrial complex.
#ukraine #international
This "Russian invasion" story is not interesting for me. The only important part are the real consequences of the media hysteria. There are many, and, ironically, Ukraine suffered more than Russia so far.
Foreign investors ran away, the National bank of Ukraine spent about $2bln to support Ukrainian currency, the embassies of western countries moved from Kiev to Lvov, a city located close to Polish border, and the diplomats do not provide any services there. The international insurance companies stripped away their guarantees for planes in Ukrainian airspace, and the Ukrainian govt spent about $500mln to avoid flight bans. In latest two weeks Ukraine looks like a subject of wide international sanctions.
As for Russia, for now the only real consequence was the change of ruble exchange rate. In recent month 1$ rose from 74₽ to 79₽, the current price is 76₽. I can't call this change a significant one.
All western politicians understand that nothing will happen to them even in the worse scenario, where Russia attacks Ukraine officially and takes Kiev. All these speeches about Russia help Biden, Johnson and others to distract attention from local problems and support American military-industrial complex.
#ukraine #international
Ok, Putin recognized the independence of DPR and LPR. 8 years of stupid talks which brought Russia and Russians nothing more than humiliation and sufferings came to an end. So here is the short list of (possible) consequences
1. I hope, the military actions of Ukraine towards DPR/LPR will be over. Artillery shells, drone bombings etc. now can cause official military response from Russia, a response which Ukraine won't survive
2. Minsk agreements are over. Ukraine lost sovereignty over cities of Donetsk and Lugansk for a long time, probably forever
3. There will be sanctions on Russia, and it's hard to predict their scale.
#ukraine #international
1. I hope, the military actions of Ukraine towards DPR/LPR will be over. Artillery shells, drone bombings etc. now can cause official military response from Russia, a response which Ukraine won't survive
2. Minsk agreements are over. Ukraine lost sovereignty over cities of Donetsk and Lugansk for a long time, probably forever
3. There will be sanctions on Russia, and it's hard to predict their scale.
#ukraine #international
I did not expect to start morning like that. Assault on Kharkov, on Ukrainian (well, not so Ukrainian already, I guess) - controlled parts of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts. Some Ukrainian military objects hit by missiles, including ammunition depots in the western Ukraine. Rumor has it there is landing in Odessa and Nikolaev, but I'm reading tg channels of these cities and journalists say that now no landing takes place.
No, I don't want to see dollar exchange rate
#ukraine #international
No, I don't want to see dollar exchange rate
#ukraine #international
Here is the map of Ukraine (in internationally recognized borders). What is known: Russian troops in the East took Sumy and met resistance in Kharkov. The armies of DPR/LPR advance towards the west. Russian army from the Crimea reached Dnepr river in Kherson oblast. The aviation is involved in fighting over Kiev and the Black sea ports: Odessa and Nikolaev. Some Russian divisions reached Kiev already.
For now there is no official information on the conflict, keep that in mind.
As for my opinion: "My country, right or wrong". Now the Russian leadership is wrong, there will be casualties and huge economic/political consequences. Still, I wish our Army a victory and as less losses as possible. Godspeed
For now there is no official information on the conflict, keep that in mind.
As for my opinion: "My country, right or wrong". Now the Russian leadership is wrong, there will be casualties and huge economic/political consequences. Still, I wish our Army a victory and as less losses as possible. Godspeed
Clashes in Kiev and Kherson (in South). Kharkov and many other cities and towns in the northeast of Ukraine are blocked by Russian army. Too early to judge, but I believe the Russian govt wanted more from the first day, and now blitzkrieg eventually turns into stationary warfare.
The position of Russian leadership is not clear. The press-secretary of Vladimir Putin said that Russia recognizes Mr. Zelensky as the president of Ukraine. In his turn, Mr. Lavrov, the minister of foreign affairs, claimed that Russia doesn't recognize the Ukrainian government. That looks strange.
The official Russian goals are:
1. Recognition of the Crimea as Russian territory by Ukraine
2. Recognition of DPR/LPR and the ending of their blockade
3. Restoration of water supply from Dnepr river to the Crimea
4. Neutral status of Ukraine
For now it seems Russia doesn't want to change the Ukrainian govt after all, but nobody can be sure. Vladimir Zelensky has already agreed on the neutral status of his country. Still, the mechanism of implementation of Russian demands is a mystery to me. Russia needs to rewrite Ukrainian constitution, change a lot of Ukrainian laws, make them work and get some guarantees that these laws won't be changed or cancelled later. I don't know what parliament and what government will do this.
The position of Russian leadership is not clear. The press-secretary of Vladimir Putin said that Russia recognizes Mr. Zelensky as the president of Ukraine. In his turn, Mr. Lavrov, the minister of foreign affairs, claimed that Russia doesn't recognize the Ukrainian government. That looks strange.
The official Russian goals are:
1. Recognition of the Crimea as Russian territory by Ukraine
2. Recognition of DPR/LPR and the ending of their blockade
3. Restoration of water supply from Dnepr river to the Crimea
4. Neutral status of Ukraine
For now it seems Russia doesn't want to change the Ukrainian govt after all, but nobody can be sure. Vladimir Zelensky has already agreed on the neutral status of his country. Still, the mechanism of implementation of Russian demands is a mystery to me. Russia needs to rewrite Ukrainian constitution, change a lot of Ukrainian laws, make them work and get some guarantees that these laws won't be changed or cancelled later. I don't know what parliament and what government will do this.
In general nothing has changed. A lot of fights near Kiev, where Russians try to capture all airfields around the city. Eventually Ukrainian troops leave Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts in attempt to save the capital, while Russians try to organize an encirclement of these forces.
The Russians don't enter the Ukrainian cities, rather block them. Usually the Ukrainian media write smth like "despite desperate assault of Russian occupants, %cityname% remains Ukrainian". The problem with this narrative is evident: to repel an assault you first need to face it. Sometimes Russians just pass through the cities without any resistance and proceed further.
According to the Ukrainian ministry of defense, this night Russians lost two Il-76 planes. Each of these transport planes carries 150 soldiers, so that's very important if it really happened. I didn't see a single photo of the incident, so now I think (and hope) it's just propaganda. Ukrainians post a lot about Russian heavy casualties, but proofs are absent.
I don't want to write about the sanctions and other consequences yet, because I expect more to come. For now Russian economy is stable. Even currency exchange rate is fine, just 83₽ for 1$. Although, I don't believe this (relative) calmness will last long.
The Russians don't enter the Ukrainian cities, rather block them. Usually the Ukrainian media write smth like "despite desperate assault of Russian occupants, %cityname% remains Ukrainian". The problem with this narrative is evident: to repel an assault you first need to face it. Sometimes Russians just pass through the cities without any resistance and proceed further.
According to the Ukrainian ministry of defense, this night Russians lost two Il-76 planes. Each of these transport planes carries 150 soldiers, so that's very important if it really happened. I didn't see a single photo of the incident, so now I think (and hope) it's just propaganda. Ukrainians post a lot about Russian heavy casualties, but proofs are absent.
I don't want to write about the sanctions and other consequences yet, because I expect more to come. For now Russian economy is stable. Even currency exchange rate is fine, just 83₽ for 1$. Although, I don't believe this (relative) calmness will last long.
Guys, recent days I was scrolling the feed all the time, from 11:00 to 04:30. That wasn't good idea, now I have much to do. So I looked through recent news quick and can make a conclusion: once again, nothing big happened yesterday. The Crimean group of Russians try to avoid casualties and slowly advance in three directions:
1. North in Zaporozhye oblast
2. West in Kherson and Nikolaev, the cities are blocked
3. East in Zaporozhye, Donetsk oblast
The DPR/LPR advance north and west. At such speed they'll meet the Crimean group and block Mariupol (the biggest port on Azov sea) within two days.
The north-eastern group assaults Kharkov. Many locals are pro-Russian there, so they give away the location of Ukrainian troops inside the city, while Ukrainian army uses them as a shield. I expect a lot of casualties there. Also Russian troops took some empty towns in Kharkov oblast, like Kupyansk.
The "V" group fights on the outskirts of Kiev.
There are a lot of rumors about the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, but the terms are unknown.
1. North in Zaporozhye oblast
2. West in Kherson and Nikolaev, the cities are blocked
3. East in Zaporozhye, Donetsk oblast
The DPR/LPR advance north and west. At such speed they'll meet the Crimean group and block Mariupol (the biggest port on Azov sea) within two days.
The north-eastern group assaults Kharkov. Many locals are pro-Russian there, so they give away the location of Ukrainian troops inside the city, while Ukrainian army uses them as a shield. I expect a lot of casualties there. Also Russian troops took some empty towns in Kharkov oblast, like Kupyansk.
The "V" group fights on the outskirts of Kiev.
There are a lot of rumors about the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, but the terms are unknown.
Looked through the news quick. LPR controls Lugansk oblast. Mariupol in Donetsk oblast is blocked. Kharkov is under assault, the main column of Russian troops passed through it and reached Kiev, so the capital of Ukraine is surrounded.
Cherson and Nikolaev are blocked, the Russians try to negotiate their peaceful surrender.
The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Gomel failed yesterday, but the parties agreed to meet again.
Cherson and Nikolaev are blocked, the Russians try to negotiate their peaceful surrender.
The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Gomel failed yesterday, but the parties agreed to meet again.
I do not like official maps, because they don't show the real scale of Russian progress. Here the map-makers showed the presence of the Russian troops by hatching territories.
Btw, I watched Ukrainian news/propaganda, and it was very funny experience. Everything looks professional, but too emotional for me. They really think that their victory is near, which is funny. I have my doubts
Btw, I watched Ukrainian news/propaganda, and it was very funny experience. Everything looks professional, but too emotional for me. They really think that their victory is near, which is funny. I have my doubts
Forwarded from Lebanese News and Updates
New article
With the combination of over-optimism, neglect, and the lack of motivation, the Russian army faced a series of operational failures that consequently displayed its many weakness points to its Western adversaries.
This article discusses a few of them: https://telegra.ph/War-in-Ukraine-What-Russia-Failed-03-02
PDF available on t.iss.one/LebPublications/10
With the combination of over-optimism, neglect, and the lack of motivation, the Russian army faced a series of operational failures that consequently displayed its many weakness points to its Western adversaries.
This article discusses a few of them: https://telegra.ph/War-in-Ukraine-What-Russia-Failed-03-02
PDF available on t.iss.one/LebPublications/10
Telegraph
War in Ukraine: What Russia Failed Early On
This paper is an amateur effort to discuss a series of shortcomings by Russia's military and political leadership in the first 4 days of the Ukraine War. It discusses OPSEC, tactical operations, and war media. Several ideas might have been missed, and others…
I'm not writing here because I have a strange feeling that the country I once knew doesn't exist anymore. I wish someone could give me 101 course, but it is not written and I doubt it will appear soon.
1. War. Minor successes in different places, no operative goal was reached. The main reason of this failure is an attempt to avoid casualties among the civillians. I think sooner or later Russian military command will realize that the clock is ticking and turn Ukraine in a massive grave for Ukrainians, Russians, pro-Russian Ukrainians and whoever lives there. It's not the only option, maybe the blockade of big cities will help, but I keep in mind that normality has gone and everything can happen.
2. Economy. It functions by inertia. When the west arrested approximately one half of Central Bank's reserves, the dollar exchange rate is changing somewhere between 125-140₽, so the vast majority of western companies left the market forever or "temporarily", from apparel to microelectronics (and everything in between). The operations with foreign currencies strictly limited, the stock exchanges don't operate, every business dependent on western import is on a verge of bankruptcy. Same goes for services.
When on 24th of February I said that the operation is mistake, and there would be huge consequences, I meant smth like that. Btw, since the ban of western and pro-western media in Russia and implementation of military censorship I should say that everything written here is my personal opinion, and if I'm lying it's not intentionally☺️
1. War. Minor successes in different places, no operative goal was reached. The main reason of this failure is an attempt to avoid casualties among the civillians. I think sooner or later Russian military command will realize that the clock is ticking and turn Ukraine in a massive grave for Ukrainians, Russians, pro-Russian Ukrainians and whoever lives there. It's not the only option, maybe the blockade of big cities will help, but I keep in mind that normality has gone and everything can happen.
2. Economy. It functions by inertia. When the west arrested approximately one half of Central Bank's reserves, the dollar exchange rate is changing somewhere between 125-140₽, so the vast majority of western companies left the market forever or "temporarily", from apparel to microelectronics (and everything in between). The operations with foreign currencies strictly limited, the stock exchanges don't operate, every business dependent on western import is on a verge of bankruptcy. Same goes for services.
When on 24th of February I said that the operation is mistake, and there would be huge consequences, I meant smth like that. Btw, since the ban of western and pro-western media in Russia and implementation of military censorship I should say that everything written here is my personal opinion, and if I'm lying it's not intentionally☺️
Today Putin gave yet another speech about the military operation in Ukraine and economic hardships caused by the western sanctions. The economic part of the message looks mixed. The govt is ready to provide the support for Russian business and simultaniously give it more freedom. Soon we'll find out how this will work.
As for the military operation, it proceeds further. After the failure of blitzkrieg in the first 4 days, Russian army holds the territorial gains and slowly takes control over the cities which were blocked before. Today I saw some reports about successes in the city of Mariupol. Probably Kharkov will be the next.
I'm a bit sceptical about the nuclear threat Ukraine possesed to Russia, but the directions of Russian assault show that people in the Kremlin really care about it. For now Russian army holds Chernobyl and Zaporozhskaya nuclear plants. Also one Ukrainian channel I read claimed that the Russians were seen in Vradievka village, which is close to Yuzhnaya nuclear plant. I wonder how many times Zelensky regreted he mentioned the possibility of making a nuclear bomb. It didn't look as well-planned claim, but it became the last straw for Putin's patience.
As for the military operation, it proceeds further. After the failure of blitzkrieg in the first 4 days, Russian army holds the territorial gains and slowly takes control over the cities which were blocked before. Today I saw some reports about successes in the city of Mariupol. Probably Kharkov will be the next.
I'm a bit sceptical about the nuclear threat Ukraine possesed to Russia, but the directions of Russian assault show that people in the Kremlin really care about it. For now Russian army holds Chernobyl and Zaporozhskaya nuclear plants. Also one Ukrainian channel I read claimed that the Russians were seen in Vradievka village, which is close to Yuzhnaya nuclear plant. I wonder how many times Zelensky regreted he mentioned the possibility of making a nuclear bomb. It didn't look as well-planned claim, but it became the last straw for Putin's patience.
Meta recognized as extremist organisation by the court. The reason is they allowed to insult and threaten Russians. After realizing that such allowance doesn't look great managers of Meta just let hate speech towards Russian Army for Ukrainians. Still it was too late and in fact everybody on Facebook could insult Russians anyway (even before the start of the military operation, tbh).
Facebook and Instagram are blocked for a couple of days already, there are no plans to turn off Whatsapp for now.
Previously Russia banned all significant western media in the country, such as BBC, Deutsche Welle, Radio Liberty etc. Russian non-state media with independent agenda either stopped working or were banned too. Others turned into propagandist leaflets.
Also the new bill concerning elections has passed. It strictly limits the opportunity to become a member of the election boards of different levels for independent observers. I don't think it's a big problem since every significant Russian opposition politician is either abroad or in jail, so I don't expect any competative elections in foreseable future.
Yet another disaster is Russia leaving the Council of Europe. That means the European Court of Human Rights can't judge Russian authorities anymore. Now every Russian who crossed a corrupted official is left without international support and can rely only on limited number of activists in Russia.
So it goes.
Facebook and Instagram are blocked for a couple of days already, there are no plans to turn off Whatsapp for now.
Previously Russia banned all significant western media in the country, such as BBC, Deutsche Welle, Radio Liberty etc. Russian non-state media with independent agenda either stopped working or were banned too. Others turned into propagandist leaflets.
Also the new bill concerning elections has passed. It strictly limits the opportunity to become a member of the election boards of different levels for independent observers. I don't think it's a big problem since every significant Russian opposition politician is either abroad or in jail, so I don't expect any competative elections in foreseable future.
Yet another disaster is Russia leaving the Council of Europe. That means the European Court of Human Rights can't judge Russian authorities anymore. Now every Russian who crossed a corrupted official is left without international support and can rely only on limited number of activists in Russia.
So it goes.
Putin ordered to sell gas in Russian currency. That means European buyers must sell € and $, buy ₽ and spend it on Russian gas. Both $/€ exchange rate has decreased, now 1$=100₽. The operations with foreign currency are limited until the end of the military operation in Ukraine, so now it's hard to predict the consequences of Putin's move in the long run.
The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are going on simultaneously with the fighting. Turkey and Belarus became mediators, negotiations were held in Gomel, Antalya and Istanbul. Today in Istanbul, Russia suffered a major defeat in the information war. Mr. Medinsky, the head of the Russian delegation, recounted the demands of the Ukrainian side, after which he announced the suspension of hostilities in the Kiev and Chernigov regions. Medinsky also assured journalists that Russia is not against Ukraine's entry into the European Union.
The Russian media did not at first give Medinsky's full speech. Many viewers and readers are under the impression that Russia agrees to the Ukrainian demands and is also withdrawing Group V from the Kiev area. The reality turned out to be a little different. Russian demands are in the process of preparation, and (probably) the Ukrainian proposals will be challenged. The withdrawal of Russian troops near Kiev is not planned. Now the main battles are taking place in eastern Ukraine, in Mariupol (south) and the vicinity of Izyum (north). After the completion of these battles, the Russian army will have to take the Ukrainian army in the Donbass into the pocket. Russia has no forces for a simultaneous offensive in many different areas.
Unfortunately, the actions of Medinsky and the Russian media will have consequences.
1. Abroad, Russia will be considered a weakened country. Therefore, we can expect increased assistance to Ukraine, as well as an increase in sanctions pressure
2. The growth of the morale of the Ukrainian army, the readiness of Ukrainian society to endure "a little more" until victory, or at least until worthy peace conditions.
3. Decreased morale of the Russian army and corps of the DPR/LPR. "We fight and win, but the politicians have sold everything behind our backs".
4. Loss of the pro-Russian population in Ukraine. Now no one will help the Russians, because Russia's plans for Ukraine have become even more incomprehensible. Unfortunately, if the previous points can somehow be leveled, then this one will remain at least until some decisive victories in several regions.
The Russian media did not at first give Medinsky's full speech. Many viewers and readers are under the impression that Russia agrees to the Ukrainian demands and is also withdrawing Group V from the Kiev area. The reality turned out to be a little different. Russian demands are in the process of preparation, and (probably) the Ukrainian proposals will be challenged. The withdrawal of Russian troops near Kiev is not planned. Now the main battles are taking place in eastern Ukraine, in Mariupol (south) and the vicinity of Izyum (north). After the completion of these battles, the Russian army will have to take the Ukrainian army in the Donbass into the pocket. Russia has no forces for a simultaneous offensive in many different areas.
Unfortunately, the actions of Medinsky and the Russian media will have consequences.
1. Abroad, Russia will be considered a weakened country. Therefore, we can expect increased assistance to Ukraine, as well as an increase in sanctions pressure
2. The growth of the morale of the Ukrainian army, the readiness of Ukrainian society to endure "a little more" until victory, or at least until worthy peace conditions.
3. Decreased morale of the Russian army and corps of the DPR/LPR. "We fight and win, but the politicians have sold everything behind our backs".
4. Loss of the pro-Russian population in Ukraine. Now no one will help the Russians, because Russia's plans for Ukraine have become even more incomprehensible. Unfortunately, if the previous points can somehow be leveled, then this one will remain at least until some decisive victories in several regions.