Yesterday another Russian plane, MIG-29, crashed in Astrakhan oblast. A pilot died.
I don't want to turn the channel into the registry of crashed planes, so maybe it's time to tell you about August month in Russian history, to be more precise, in history of Russian Federation. In short, this month is cursed.
1991 - pro-soviet hardliners organize coup attempt. It fails, any chances to restore Soviet union were lost
1992 - plane crash in Ivanovo oblast. 84 people died
1994 - collapse of the MMM financial pyramide, the biggest in Russian history, because people after 70 years of planned economy weren't that good in financial literacy. Also in August 1994 one dam in Baskiria republic was broken (29 people died, almost 800 lost their homes) and train crashed in Belgorod oblast (20 people died, 56 injured).
1996 - Chechen terrorists attacked Grozny and captured it, except some governmental buildings and airport. On 31st of August First Chechen war came to an end, basically Chechens won. Also the Russian plane crashed in Norway (141 people dead).
1998 - Russian govt declares default. People lost their savings
1999 - Chechens invaded Dagestan republic. The second Chechen war started
2000 - submarine Kursk sank (180 people died)
2002 - storm in Novorossiysk (46 dead). Chechen terrorists shot down military transport plane, 127 people died. Probably the biggest one-time loss in military history of RF
2003 - terrorists blew up a hospital in North Ossetia. 53 people died
2004 - terrorists attacked Grozny (76 people died), blew up two planes (89 people died) and metro station in Moscow (10 people died)
2006 - one terrorist attack in Moscow (10 people died) and plane crash (170 people died)
2008 - war in Georgia
2009 - terrorist attacks in Ingushetia republic, 25 people died. Also an accident on power station in Khakassia republic. 75 people died
2010 - forest fires. Moscow was in smog
2013 - floods in the Far East
2014 - active phase of Donbass war from July to August
2019 - forest fires in Siberia. Since that year they become annual
Of course there is rational explanation to all of this: summer is the best time for military actions, in summer people go on vacation and that puts additional pressure on transport infrastructure etc. Still, rationally or irrationally, I never expect good news this month.
#history
I don't want to turn the channel into the registry of crashed planes, so maybe it's time to tell you about August month in Russian history, to be more precise, in history of Russian Federation. In short, this month is cursed.
1991 - pro-soviet hardliners organize coup attempt. It fails, any chances to restore Soviet union were lost
1992 - plane crash in Ivanovo oblast. 84 people died
1994 - collapse of the MMM financial pyramide, the biggest in Russian history, because people after 70 years of planned economy weren't that good in financial literacy. Also in August 1994 one dam in Baskiria republic was broken (29 people died, almost 800 lost their homes) and train crashed in Belgorod oblast (20 people died, 56 injured).
1996 - Chechen terrorists attacked Grozny and captured it, except some governmental buildings and airport. On 31st of August First Chechen war came to an end, basically Chechens won. Also the Russian plane crashed in Norway (141 people dead).
1998 - Russian govt declares default. People lost their savings
1999 - Chechens invaded Dagestan republic. The second Chechen war started
2000 - submarine Kursk sank (180 people died)
2002 - storm in Novorossiysk (46 dead). Chechen terrorists shot down military transport plane, 127 people died. Probably the biggest one-time loss in military history of RF
2003 - terrorists blew up a hospital in North Ossetia. 53 people died
2004 - terrorists attacked Grozny (76 people died), blew up two planes (89 people died) and metro station in Moscow (10 people died)
2006 - one terrorist attack in Moscow (10 people died) and plane crash (170 people died)
2008 - war in Georgia
2009 - terrorist attacks in Ingushetia republic, 25 people died. Also an accident on power station in Khakassia republic. 75 people died
2010 - forest fires. Moscow was in smog
2013 - floods in the Far East
2014 - active phase of Donbass war from July to August
2019 - forest fires in Siberia. Since that year they become annual
Of course there is rational explanation to all of this: summer is the best time for military actions, in summer people go on vacation and that puts additional pressure on transport infrastructure etc. Still, rationally or irrationally, I never expect good news this month.
#history
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As I said, the natural disasters are very frequent this year. The forests of Yakutia still burn, although the scale of fires was diminished there. Now the fires are spreading in Ural and Volga federal districts. This video was made on the road between Yekaterinburg and Perm, two regional capitals.
Source: https://www.revda-info.ru/2021/08/24/na-trasse-pod-revdoj-strashnyj-lesnoj-pozhar-proezd-zakryt/
#nature
Source: https://www.revda-info.ru/2021/08/24/na-trasse-pod-revdoj-strashnyj-lesnoj-pozhar-proezd-zakryt/
#nature
The Eastern Forum is dedicated to the Asian part of Russia and relations with the Pacific region. I really like to read news from such events, because the decision-makers are in one place and it is easier to follow them.
For example, the forum discussed the idea of the Minister of Defense to build new cities in Siberia and the Far East. It is important to know that Shoigu is considered the grey cardinal of several Siberian regions, primarily his native Tuva republic and the neighboring Krasnoyarsk Krai. This initiative looks not only as concern for the Asian part of Russia, but rather as an attempt to start ambitious projects by providing federal money to the "right" people dependent on Shoigu. The proponents of the project promise abstract benefits like "development of Siberia", "new industrial and scientific clusters" etc. Therefore I haven't seen any papers with cost/benefit analysis.
In general, I have a bad attitude to the idea, since the population of Russia is shrinking and there is no objective need for new cities. Moreover, many cities in the Far East are rather poor, so it makes sense to direct resources to the places where people live now. Of course, the idea found both supporters and opponents. So far the opponents (mayors of existing cities, the president's representative in the Far East) still look more convincing.
However, the authorities promised to build some two cities anyway. The one in the Republic of Khakassia, the second near Vladivostok. Many Russian projects end in nothing, or change beyond recognition in the process. Thus it is not yet clear what will come out from Shoigu's idea.
#economy
For example, the forum discussed the idea of the Minister of Defense to build new cities in Siberia and the Far East. It is important to know that Shoigu is considered the grey cardinal of several Siberian regions, primarily his native Tuva republic and the neighboring Krasnoyarsk Krai. This initiative looks not only as concern for the Asian part of Russia, but rather as an attempt to start ambitious projects by providing federal money to the "right" people dependent on Shoigu. The proponents of the project promise abstract benefits like "development of Siberia", "new industrial and scientific clusters" etc. Therefore I haven't seen any papers with cost/benefit analysis.
In general, I have a bad attitude to the idea, since the population of Russia is shrinking and there is no objective need for new cities. Moreover, many cities in the Far East are rather poor, so it makes sense to direct resources to the places where people live now. Of course, the idea found both supporters and opponents. So far the opponents (mayors of existing cities, the president's representative in the Far East) still look more convincing.
However, the authorities promised to build some two cities anyway. The one in the Republic of Khakassia, the second near Vladivostok. Many Russian projects end in nothing, or change beyond recognition in the process. Thus it is not yet clear what will come out from Shoigu's idea.
#economy
Today Russia lost its minister of emergency situations, Evgeniy Zinichev. This person silently served in FSB for many years and was unknown to general public until 2016, when Putin appointed him the acting governor of Kaliningrad oblast. That was typical move, when a new person without anti-rating performs his duties for a couple of months, then win the elections. But this plan didn't work for Zinichev. The first press conference on his new position was a disaster: after 49 seconds Zinichev stopped it refusing answer the questions and went away. It all looked like escape. Zinichev was the acting governor of Kaliningrad oblast since July to October, after that the Kremlin granted him mercy and appointed him the minister of emergency situations, which suited Zinichev much more.
Today he participated in firefighters drill in Krasnoyarsk Krai, when suddenly one of the journalists, who was shooting the video, fall into the water from the cliff. Zinichev jumped into the water trying to save the journalist, but hit his head on a stone in the water. Unfortunately, both people died. No doubt that was a courageos act for Zinichev's part, so I press F.
#kaliningrad #obituary
Today he participated in firefighters drill in Krasnoyarsk Krai, when suddenly one of the journalists, who was shooting the video, fall into the water from the cliff. Zinichev jumped into the water trying to save the journalist, but hit his head on a stone in the water. Unfortunately, both people died. No doubt that was a courageos act for Zinichev's part, so I press F.
#kaliningrad #obituary
Before writing you need a topic. Elections are not a real topic for me. Once Viktor Chernomyrdin, the founder of Gazprom company, said:"Some think there will be something after the elections. Nothing will happen. Such is life". In general it is true for Russia.
Still some people asked me about the parliamentary elections, and I made a list of the important facts.
0. Russia has mixed elections system: we have both party lists and candidates in the different constituencies. The elections last for three days, and in some regions (including Moscow) you can vote electronically (I voted in such way because I'm not in Moscow rn and don't want to deal with different papers).
1.Technically, these elections must be important. In 2024 Putin must say whether he will participate in the presidential elections, or not. The next parliament will provide legal grounds for any decision made. Still the role of the parliament has been decreasing for many years, and I have no doubts that the next State Duma will be as obedient as possible.
2. Before the elections the Kremlin crushed every west-oriented independent media in the country, including rather small digital projects. For 6 months (more or less) the police and others organized a crackdown of many journals, NGOs, independent politicians etc.
3. It was virtually impossible for independent candidates to participate. Despite the official legal opportunity, many challengers weren't allowed to become official candidates due to completely opaque signature checks (you must collect signatures of thousands your supporters and apply to the election board to be registered). Basically, if you see an independent candidate in your ballot, 99% he is United Russia affiliated politician, who fears high disaproval rates of that party in his constituency.
4. The only real way for politicians to appear in the ballot is to go on elections from some parties. All of them are controlled by the presidential administration at certain degree. It sounds paradoxical, but it is easier for weak candidates to participate in elections from parties, because strong candidates irritate the Kremlin, and parties (in most cases) don't want to enter the conflict over candidates.
5. Before the elections some new parties appeared. The most prominent are "New people", a project for soft liberals, and "Just Russia for life", the socialists with some nationalist shades. New people party got a broad media coverage (impossible without approval of the Kremlin), so the only intrigue is whether they are passing the threshold or not.
6. Many violations this time. I use this word because members of local election boards usually make mistakes due to their low qualification, rather than deliberate intention to falsify smth. Still, the number of evident falsifications is bigger than usual, too. "Golos" NGO, the biggest association of monitors, registered more than 4k incidents. That hits the record of 2012
I will cover elections further after getting the final results.
#elections
Still some people asked me about the parliamentary elections, and I made a list of the important facts.
0. Russia has mixed elections system: we have both party lists and candidates in the different constituencies. The elections last for three days, and in some regions (including Moscow) you can vote electronically (I voted in such way because I'm not in Moscow rn and don't want to deal with different papers).
1.Technically, these elections must be important. In 2024 Putin must say whether he will participate in the presidential elections, or not. The next parliament will provide legal grounds for any decision made. Still the role of the parliament has been decreasing for many years, and I have no doubts that the next State Duma will be as obedient as possible.
2. Before the elections the Kremlin crushed every west-oriented independent media in the country, including rather small digital projects. For 6 months (more or less) the police and others organized a crackdown of many journals, NGOs, independent politicians etc.
3. It was virtually impossible for independent candidates to participate. Despite the official legal opportunity, many challengers weren't allowed to become official candidates due to completely opaque signature checks (you must collect signatures of thousands your supporters and apply to the election board to be registered). Basically, if you see an independent candidate in your ballot, 99% he is United Russia affiliated politician, who fears high disaproval rates of that party in his constituency.
4. The only real way for politicians to appear in the ballot is to go on elections from some parties. All of them are controlled by the presidential administration at certain degree. It sounds paradoxical, but it is easier for weak candidates to participate in elections from parties, because strong candidates irritate the Kremlin, and parties (in most cases) don't want to enter the conflict over candidates.
5. Before the elections some new parties appeared. The most prominent are "New people", a project for soft liberals, and "Just Russia for life", the socialists with some nationalist shades. New people party got a broad media coverage (impossible without approval of the Kremlin), so the only intrigue is whether they are passing the threshold or not.
6. Many violations this time. I use this word because members of local election boards usually make mistakes due to their low qualification, rather than deliberate intention to falsify smth. Still, the number of evident falsifications is bigger than usual, too. "Golos" NGO, the biggest association of monitors, registered more than 4k incidents. That hits the record of 2012
I will cover elections further after getting the final results.
#elections
The last post about the elections.
1. United Russia got constitutional majority
2. Communists enjoyed limited support from liberals and got more seats than before
3. LDPR lost a lot of seats. That happened due to variety of reasons. First, they didn't try to save the governor of Khabarovsk Krai from jail. Second, too many parties used the same agenda as LDPR this time.
4. New people party entered the parliament. I tried to describe them shortly as soft liberals, and in my opinion this is the best definition. The evident problem is they were created by the Kremlin and can't be the real opposition
5. Falsifications? Yes, 15-20% of United Russia votes. Also this electronic voting system looks very suspicious
On the pic: 1) votes for party lists 2) votes for candidates in consituencies
#elections
1. United Russia got constitutional majority
2. Communists enjoyed limited support from liberals and got more seats than before
3. LDPR lost a lot of seats. That happened due to variety of reasons. First, they didn't try to save the governor of Khabarovsk Krai from jail. Second, too many parties used the same agenda as LDPR this time.
4. New people party entered the parliament. I tried to describe them shortly as soft liberals, and in my opinion this is the best definition. The evident problem is they were created by the Kremlin and can't be the real opposition
5. Falsifications? Yes, 15-20% of United Russia votes. Also this electronic voting system looks very suspicious
On the pic: 1) votes for party lists 2) votes for candidates in consituencies
#elections
Moscow met the New Year one hour ago. In recent months I abandoned the channel due to many reasons, the most important of them was my laziness. Russian analogue of Santa doesn't give coal to bad children, but I feel guilty anyway and gonna be back on track starting from tomorrow. Now I just wish you to be happy in 2022
One of the calmest country in the post soviet territory is Kazakhstan. It doesn't mean there weren't protests, but usually such actions do not cover the whole country. Yesterday the situation changed.
The government raised prices on gas, and the riots started in the western part of the country. Since these parts of Kazakhstan actually have gas and oil fields, many people work there as miners, the frustration of locals who felt robbed led to the conflict. Actually, these parts of Kazakstan protest from time to time, so nobody expected anything more.
Then Almaty, the first capital of republic, followed the west. Situation started looking bad. In some places the protesters won the fights against the police and took their equipment. Kazakh bureaucracy reacted two-fold. On the one hand, Mr. Tokaev, the president of the country, dismissed the government which failed to sustain the stability of Kazakhstan and promised 10% discount on gas. On the other hand the police promised to punish the most active protesters.
It seems some protesters demand the resignation of Nazarbaev. This is the first president of Kazakhstan, now he is the chairman of the security council. In my opinion, he solved the succession problem in elegant way, eventually giving up his power to other political institutions while staying the final arbiter for the Kazakh elites. It worked for a time, but the plans of Nazarbaev to stay in Kazakh politics for life can be broken. It's double interesting for me because Putin planned to do smth like that, too.
Do protesters have a chance to succeed? Well, organized opposition is absent in Kazakhstan, so nobody can properly direct the protests. Rumor has it Tokaev wants to become the one and only ruler of Kazakhstan, so he can use these protests to get rid of Nazarbaev. In my opinion it is not true. My experience tells me that post-soviet bureaucrats are not very creative, and they consider the protests too dangerous to use them. The elites in Kazakhstan are not split, so I doubt the protesters find some friends among the officials. Time is the essence. If the police take control over the streets soon, the protesting masses won't have time to find leaders among them and the protests fail.
#international #kazakhstan
The government raised prices on gas, and the riots started in the western part of the country. Since these parts of Kazakhstan actually have gas and oil fields, many people work there as miners, the frustration of locals who felt robbed led to the conflict. Actually, these parts of Kazakstan protest from time to time, so nobody expected anything more.
Then Almaty, the first capital of republic, followed the west. Situation started looking bad. In some places the protesters won the fights against the police and took their equipment. Kazakh bureaucracy reacted two-fold. On the one hand, Mr. Tokaev, the president of the country, dismissed the government which failed to sustain the stability of Kazakhstan and promised 10% discount on gas. On the other hand the police promised to punish the most active protesters.
It seems some protesters demand the resignation of Nazarbaev. This is the first president of Kazakhstan, now he is the chairman of the security council. In my opinion, he solved the succession problem in elegant way, eventually giving up his power to other political institutions while staying the final arbiter for the Kazakh elites. It worked for a time, but the plans of Nazarbaev to stay in Kazakh politics for life can be broken. It's double interesting for me because Putin planned to do smth like that, too.
Do protesters have a chance to succeed? Well, organized opposition is absent in Kazakhstan, so nobody can properly direct the protests. Rumor has it Tokaev wants to become the one and only ruler of Kazakhstan, so he can use these protests to get rid of Nazarbaev. In my opinion it is not true. My experience tells me that post-soviet bureaucrats are not very creative, and they consider the protests too dangerous to use them. The elites in Kazakhstan are not split, so I doubt the protesters find some friends among the officials. Time is the essence. If the police take control over the streets soon, the protesting masses won't have time to find leaders among them and the protests fail.
#international #kazakhstan
Why Kazakhstan is important for Russia?
1. Geography. Kazakhstan and Russia share the longest border in the world, 7598km. In case of refugees influx or terrorist infiltriation this border will be hard to protect. Also it's important that Kazakhstan separates Russia from less developed Central Asian states and at least in part absorbs their labour migrants. Furthermore, Kazakhstan provides China transit routes to the European Union in addition to Trans-Siberian railway.
2. Politics. Present-day regime in Kazakhstan is relatively friendly to Russia. Both countries are members of Eurasian union (common market), Commonwealth of Independent States (open borders before covid era), and now famous Collective Security Treaty Organization, a defensive military alliance of some post-soviet states led by Russia. Despite close ties with Russia, Kazakh elites always try to diversify their relations. Kazakhstan represents itself as one of the Turkic nations, which pleases Turkey. For China Kazakhstan is a reliable oil supplier and transit country, part of "Silk road" initiative. Western companies also have their piece of Kazakh oil pie, the biggest oil field in the country belongs to subsdiary of Chevron and Kazakh government.
3. The Russians. Russian language is the second official language in the country, and Russian minority numbered 3,47mln people, 18% of country population. Mostly they live in Northern parts of Kazakhstan. It should be noted that Russians in Kazakhstan face substantial discrimination in civil service, political representation and business. A lot of ethnic Russians left Kazakhstan since the collapse of the Soviet union.
4. Military. Russia has 7 important military installments in Kazakhstan. The most famous are Baykonur, Russian space port, and some parts of rocket launch site called Kapustin Yar. Also Russia has one airbase, some radars and rocket polygons in different parts of Kazakhstan.
5. Commodities. Oil is Kazakhstan's major export, and Russian companies have some shares in different oil fields. Still, Russian involvement in Kazakh oil industry is limited. What really matters is uranium. In 2020 Kazakhstan mined 19800 tons of uranium, that's 42% of the world production. Approximately 20% of uranium production of Kazakhstan is in hands of Rosatom. Needless to say, that violent attempt of regime change in Kazakhstan can blew a large hole of international security. Nobody wants a "dirty bomb" on his doorstep.
#international #kazakhstan
1. Geography. Kazakhstan and Russia share the longest border in the world, 7598km. In case of refugees influx or terrorist infiltriation this border will be hard to protect. Also it's important that Kazakhstan separates Russia from less developed Central Asian states and at least in part absorbs their labour migrants. Furthermore, Kazakhstan provides China transit routes to the European Union in addition to Trans-Siberian railway.
2. Politics. Present-day regime in Kazakhstan is relatively friendly to Russia. Both countries are members of Eurasian union (common market), Commonwealth of Independent States (open borders before covid era), and now famous Collective Security Treaty Organization, a defensive military alliance of some post-soviet states led by Russia. Despite close ties with Russia, Kazakh elites always try to diversify their relations. Kazakhstan represents itself as one of the Turkic nations, which pleases Turkey. For China Kazakhstan is a reliable oil supplier and transit country, part of "Silk road" initiative. Western companies also have their piece of Kazakh oil pie, the biggest oil field in the country belongs to subsdiary of Chevron and Kazakh government.
3. The Russians. Russian language is the second official language in the country, and Russian minority numbered 3,47mln people, 18% of country population. Mostly they live in Northern parts of Kazakhstan. It should be noted that Russians in Kazakhstan face substantial discrimination in civil service, political representation and business. A lot of ethnic Russians left Kazakhstan since the collapse of the Soviet union.
4. Military. Russia has 7 important military installments in Kazakhstan. The most famous are Baykonur, Russian space port, and some parts of rocket launch site called Kapustin Yar. Also Russia has one airbase, some radars and rocket polygons in different parts of Kazakhstan.
5. Commodities. Oil is Kazakhstan's major export, and Russian companies have some shares in different oil fields. Still, Russian involvement in Kazakh oil industry is limited. What really matters is uranium. In 2020 Kazakhstan mined 19800 tons of uranium, that's 42% of the world production. Approximately 20% of uranium production of Kazakhstan is in hands of Rosatom. Needless to say, that violent attempt of regime change in Kazakhstan can blew a large hole of international security. Nobody wants a "dirty bomb" on his doorstep.
#international #kazakhstan
I'm really tired of these rumors about war in Ukraine. The probability of Russians attacking first is very low. The probability that Ukrainians start offensive operation in Donbass and Russia will have to retaliate is higher.
Still, majority of Ukrainian politicians don't want the war, because Ukrainian economy cannot endure the conflict against Russia. It's not about obvious inability of Ukrainian troops to fight against full-scale Russian intervention.
In recent two years Ukrainian economy faced many challenges, especially in energy sector, and now every Ukrainian action in military sphere will lead to rolling blackouts without Russian gas and oil. This dependency is aggravated by spoiled relations between Belarus and Ukraine. I do not believe that in war scenario Belarus will let Russians attack Ukraine from its territory. Nevertheless, the transit of Russian oil and gas through Belarus will be stopped.
#international #Ukraine
Still, majority of Ukrainian politicians don't want the war, because Ukrainian economy cannot endure the conflict against Russia. It's not about obvious inability of Ukrainian troops to fight against full-scale Russian intervention.
In recent two years Ukrainian economy faced many challenges, especially in energy sector, and now every Ukrainian action in military sphere will lead to rolling blackouts without Russian gas and oil. This dependency is aggravated by spoiled relations between Belarus and Ukraine. I do not believe that in war scenario Belarus will let Russians attack Ukraine from its territory. Nevertheless, the transit of Russian oil and gas through Belarus will be stopped.
#international #Ukraine
The talks between Russia and NATO are very unusual. In December the Russian govt published a list of demands for the US. It includes:
1. Enlargement of NATO must come to an end
2. The US and Russia must not use third parties to prepare attacks on each other
3. NATO must not build any military infrastructure on post-soviet territory, except Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which are members of NATO. Also NATO must not develop military cooperation with post-soviet countries.
4. The US and Russia must deploy nuclear weapons only within their national borders
5. The US and Russia should consider the deployment of missiles only within their national borders
This list is incomplete, but you got the general idea. It looks like Russia waged war against NATO, won this war and now writes a peace treaty. But in reality none of this happened, so it's easy to predict the American total rejection of Russian demands. The unilateral announcement of this list also looks strange. Usually the diplomats of interested parties discuss such important documents for a long time, until the final paper, approved by everyone, appears. Americans could refuse to discuss Russian demands, but they considered it too risky. So the talks started, lasted one month and now the Americans promise to send their proposals. Interestingly enough, they won't be public. Probably because Americans decided to make some concessions in Ukraine and Georgia, after all. It is evident that Western European members of NATO do not like the perspective of Ukraine and Georgia as NATO member countries, so nobody will accept them anyway. Such things cannot be said in public, because the image of NATO will suffer.
Western media described Russian demands as ultimatum. After unsatisfactory end of the talks, Western observers wait for Russian invasion in Ukraine. In fact nobody in Russia said to NATO "accept or we will attack". Still, foreign investors withdraw their money from both Russia and Ukraine, while the escalation of Ukrainian conflict is barely possible.
#international #Ukraine #US
1. Enlargement of NATO must come to an end
2. The US and Russia must not use third parties to prepare attacks on each other
3. NATO must not build any military infrastructure on post-soviet territory, except Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which are members of NATO. Also NATO must not develop military cooperation with post-soviet countries.
4. The US and Russia must deploy nuclear weapons only within their national borders
5. The US and Russia should consider the deployment of missiles only within their national borders
This list is incomplete, but you got the general idea. It looks like Russia waged war against NATO, won this war and now writes a peace treaty. But in reality none of this happened, so it's easy to predict the American total rejection of Russian demands. The unilateral announcement of this list also looks strange. Usually the diplomats of interested parties discuss such important documents for a long time, until the final paper, approved by everyone, appears. Americans could refuse to discuss Russian demands, but they considered it too risky. So the talks started, lasted one month and now the Americans promise to send their proposals. Interestingly enough, they won't be public. Probably because Americans decided to make some concessions in Ukraine and Georgia, after all. It is evident that Western European members of NATO do not like the perspective of Ukraine and Georgia as NATO member countries, so nobody will accept them anyway. Such things cannot be said in public, because the image of NATO will suffer.
Western media described Russian demands as ultimatum. After unsatisfactory end of the talks, Western observers wait for Russian invasion in Ukraine. In fact nobody in Russia said to NATO "accept or we will attack". Still, foreign investors withdraw their money from both Russia and Ukraine, while the escalation of Ukrainian conflict is barely possible.
#international #Ukraine #US
I didn't write here because I was (and am) busy. Sorry, guys.
This "Russian invasion" story is not interesting for me. The only important part are the real consequences of the media hysteria. There are many, and, ironically, Ukraine suffered more than Russia so far.
Foreign investors ran away, the National bank of Ukraine spent about $2bln to support Ukrainian currency, the embassies of western countries moved from Kiev to Lvov, a city located close to Polish border, and the diplomats do not provide any services there. The international insurance companies stripped away their guarantees for planes in Ukrainian airspace, and the Ukrainian govt spent about $500mln to avoid flight bans. In latest two weeks Ukraine looks like a subject of wide international sanctions.
As for Russia, for now the only real consequence was the change of ruble exchange rate. In recent month 1$ rose from 74₽ to 79₽, the current price is 76₽. I can't call this change a significant one.
All western politicians understand that nothing will happen to them even in the worse scenario, where Russia attacks Ukraine officially and takes Kiev. All these speeches about Russia help Biden, Johnson and others to distract attention from local problems and support American military-industrial complex.
#ukraine #international
This "Russian invasion" story is not interesting for me. The only important part are the real consequences of the media hysteria. There are many, and, ironically, Ukraine suffered more than Russia so far.
Foreign investors ran away, the National bank of Ukraine spent about $2bln to support Ukrainian currency, the embassies of western countries moved from Kiev to Lvov, a city located close to Polish border, and the diplomats do not provide any services there. The international insurance companies stripped away their guarantees for planes in Ukrainian airspace, and the Ukrainian govt spent about $500mln to avoid flight bans. In latest two weeks Ukraine looks like a subject of wide international sanctions.
As for Russia, for now the only real consequence was the change of ruble exchange rate. In recent month 1$ rose from 74₽ to 79₽, the current price is 76₽. I can't call this change a significant one.
All western politicians understand that nothing will happen to them even in the worse scenario, where Russia attacks Ukraine officially and takes Kiev. All these speeches about Russia help Biden, Johnson and others to distract attention from local problems and support American military-industrial complex.
#ukraine #international
Ok, Putin recognized the independence of DPR and LPR. 8 years of stupid talks which brought Russia and Russians nothing more than humiliation and sufferings came to an end. So here is the short list of (possible) consequences
1. I hope, the military actions of Ukraine towards DPR/LPR will be over. Artillery shells, drone bombings etc. now can cause official military response from Russia, a response which Ukraine won't survive
2. Minsk agreements are over. Ukraine lost sovereignty over cities of Donetsk and Lugansk for a long time, probably forever
3. There will be sanctions on Russia, and it's hard to predict their scale.
#ukraine #international
1. I hope, the military actions of Ukraine towards DPR/LPR will be over. Artillery shells, drone bombings etc. now can cause official military response from Russia, a response which Ukraine won't survive
2. Minsk agreements are over. Ukraine lost sovereignty over cities of Donetsk and Lugansk for a long time, probably forever
3. There will be sanctions on Russia, and it's hard to predict their scale.
#ukraine #international
I did not expect to start morning like that. Assault on Kharkov, on Ukrainian (well, not so Ukrainian already, I guess) - controlled parts of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts. Some Ukrainian military objects hit by missiles, including ammunition depots in the western Ukraine. Rumor has it there is landing in Odessa and Nikolaev, but I'm reading tg channels of these cities and journalists say that now no landing takes place.
No, I don't want to see dollar exchange rate
#ukraine #international
No, I don't want to see dollar exchange rate
#ukraine #international
Here is the map of Ukraine (in internationally recognized borders). What is known: Russian troops in the East took Sumy and met resistance in Kharkov. The armies of DPR/LPR advance towards the west. Russian army from the Crimea reached Dnepr river in Kherson oblast. The aviation is involved in fighting over Kiev and the Black sea ports: Odessa and Nikolaev. Some Russian divisions reached Kiev already.
For now there is no official information on the conflict, keep that in mind.
As for my opinion: "My country, right or wrong". Now the Russian leadership is wrong, there will be casualties and huge economic/political consequences. Still, I wish our Army a victory and as less losses as possible. Godspeed
For now there is no official information on the conflict, keep that in mind.
As for my opinion: "My country, right or wrong". Now the Russian leadership is wrong, there will be casualties and huge economic/political consequences. Still, I wish our Army a victory and as less losses as possible. Godspeed
Clashes in Kiev and Kherson (in South). Kharkov and many other cities and towns in the northeast of Ukraine are blocked by Russian army. Too early to judge, but I believe the Russian govt wanted more from the first day, and now blitzkrieg eventually turns into stationary warfare.
The position of Russian leadership is not clear. The press-secretary of Vladimir Putin said that Russia recognizes Mr. Zelensky as the president of Ukraine. In his turn, Mr. Lavrov, the minister of foreign affairs, claimed that Russia doesn't recognize the Ukrainian government. That looks strange.
The official Russian goals are:
1. Recognition of the Crimea as Russian territory by Ukraine
2. Recognition of DPR/LPR and the ending of their blockade
3. Restoration of water supply from Dnepr river to the Crimea
4. Neutral status of Ukraine
For now it seems Russia doesn't want to change the Ukrainian govt after all, but nobody can be sure. Vladimir Zelensky has already agreed on the neutral status of his country. Still, the mechanism of implementation of Russian demands is a mystery to me. Russia needs to rewrite Ukrainian constitution, change a lot of Ukrainian laws, make them work and get some guarantees that these laws won't be changed or cancelled later. I don't know what parliament and what government will do this.
The position of Russian leadership is not clear. The press-secretary of Vladimir Putin said that Russia recognizes Mr. Zelensky as the president of Ukraine. In his turn, Mr. Lavrov, the minister of foreign affairs, claimed that Russia doesn't recognize the Ukrainian government. That looks strange.
The official Russian goals are:
1. Recognition of the Crimea as Russian territory by Ukraine
2. Recognition of DPR/LPR and the ending of their blockade
3. Restoration of water supply from Dnepr river to the Crimea
4. Neutral status of Ukraine
For now it seems Russia doesn't want to change the Ukrainian govt after all, but nobody can be sure. Vladimir Zelensky has already agreed on the neutral status of his country. Still, the mechanism of implementation of Russian demands is a mystery to me. Russia needs to rewrite Ukrainian constitution, change a lot of Ukrainian laws, make them work and get some guarantees that these laws won't be changed or cancelled later. I don't know what parliament and what government will do this.
In general nothing has changed. A lot of fights near Kiev, where Russians try to capture all airfields around the city. Eventually Ukrainian troops leave Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts in attempt to save the capital, while Russians try to organize an encirclement of these forces.
The Russians don't enter the Ukrainian cities, rather block them. Usually the Ukrainian media write smth like "despite desperate assault of Russian occupants, %cityname% remains Ukrainian". The problem with this narrative is evident: to repel an assault you first need to face it. Sometimes Russians just pass through the cities without any resistance and proceed further.
According to the Ukrainian ministry of defense, this night Russians lost two Il-76 planes. Each of these transport planes carries 150 soldiers, so that's very important if it really happened. I didn't see a single photo of the incident, so now I think (and hope) it's just propaganda. Ukrainians post a lot about Russian heavy casualties, but proofs are absent.
I don't want to write about the sanctions and other consequences yet, because I expect more to come. For now Russian economy is stable. Even currency exchange rate is fine, just 83₽ for 1$. Although, I don't believe this (relative) calmness will last long.
The Russians don't enter the Ukrainian cities, rather block them. Usually the Ukrainian media write smth like "despite desperate assault of Russian occupants, %cityname% remains Ukrainian". The problem with this narrative is evident: to repel an assault you first need to face it. Sometimes Russians just pass through the cities without any resistance and proceed further.
According to the Ukrainian ministry of defense, this night Russians lost two Il-76 planes. Each of these transport planes carries 150 soldiers, so that's very important if it really happened. I didn't see a single photo of the incident, so now I think (and hope) it's just propaganda. Ukrainians post a lot about Russian heavy casualties, but proofs are absent.
I don't want to write about the sanctions and other consequences yet, because I expect more to come. For now Russian economy is stable. Even currency exchange rate is fine, just 83₽ for 1$. Although, I don't believe this (relative) calmness will last long.
Guys, recent days I was scrolling the feed all the time, from 11:00 to 04:30. That wasn't good idea, now I have much to do. So I looked through recent news quick and can make a conclusion: once again, nothing big happened yesterday. The Crimean group of Russians try to avoid casualties and slowly advance in three directions:
1. North in Zaporozhye oblast
2. West in Kherson and Nikolaev, the cities are blocked
3. East in Zaporozhye, Donetsk oblast
The DPR/LPR advance north and west. At such speed they'll meet the Crimean group and block Mariupol (the biggest port on Azov sea) within two days.
The north-eastern group assaults Kharkov. Many locals are pro-Russian there, so they give away the location of Ukrainian troops inside the city, while Ukrainian army uses them as a shield. I expect a lot of casualties there. Also Russian troops took some empty towns in Kharkov oblast, like Kupyansk.
The "V" group fights on the outskirts of Kiev.
There are a lot of rumors about the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, but the terms are unknown.
1. North in Zaporozhye oblast
2. West in Kherson and Nikolaev, the cities are blocked
3. East in Zaporozhye, Donetsk oblast
The DPR/LPR advance north and west. At such speed they'll meet the Crimean group and block Mariupol (the biggest port on Azov sea) within two days.
The north-eastern group assaults Kharkov. Many locals are pro-Russian there, so they give away the location of Ukrainian troops inside the city, while Ukrainian army uses them as a shield. I expect a lot of casualties there. Also Russian troops took some empty towns in Kharkov oblast, like Kupyansk.
The "V" group fights on the outskirts of Kiev.
There are a lot of rumors about the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, but the terms are unknown.
Looked through the news quick. LPR controls Lugansk oblast. Mariupol in Donetsk oblast is blocked. Kharkov is under assault, the main column of Russian troops passed through it and reached Kiev, so the capital of Ukraine is surrounded.
Cherson and Nikolaev are blocked, the Russians try to negotiate their peaceful surrender.
The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Gomel failed yesterday, but the parties agreed to meet again.
Cherson and Nikolaev are blocked, the Russians try to negotiate their peaceful surrender.
The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Gomel failed yesterday, but the parties agreed to meet again.
I do not like official maps, because they don't show the real scale of Russian progress. Here the map-makers showed the presence of the Russian troops by hatching territories.
Btw, I watched Ukrainian news/propaganda, and it was very funny experience. Everything looks professional, but too emotional for me. They really think that their victory is near, which is funny. I have my doubts
Btw, I watched Ukrainian news/propaganda, and it was very funny experience. Everything looks professional, but too emotional for me. They really think that their victory is near, which is funny. I have my doubts