The Moscow govt made vaccination obligatory for 60% of employed in state, transport, trade, banking and some other economic sectors. I expected smth like this, simply because bureaucrats in Russia can't behave otherwise. Moreover, this pause between the introduction of the vaccine and making its obligatory for millions of people was very atypical from the start.
I don't believe that the vaccine contains computer chips, but I don't believe it is possible to make a normally tested vaccine within 9 months either, no matter whether is is produced in Russia, China, the EU or the US. So potentially Russians can get useless or even dangerous substance in their bodies, and I'm not happy with that.
The logic of the authorities is understandable, too. They fear that without vaccination they will have to declare the new lockdown, a move which will destroy the leftovers of Russian small business and services sector. Also nobody in the govt doesn't want to pay compensations for strict anti-covid measures. It seems Moscow won't be the only region with such vaccination rules. In my opinion, Moscow oblast (a separate region around the city of Moscow) will follow the example, and with certain lag other regions will implement more or less the same rules, too.
#corona
I don't believe that the vaccine contains computer chips, but I don't believe it is possible to make a normally tested vaccine within 9 months either, no matter whether is is produced in Russia, China, the EU or the US. So potentially Russians can get useless or even dangerous substance in their bodies, and I'm not happy with that.
The logic of the authorities is understandable, too. They fear that without vaccination they will have to declare the new lockdown, a move which will destroy the leftovers of Russian small business and services sector. Also nobody in the govt doesn't want to pay compensations for strict anti-covid measures. It seems Moscow won't be the only region with such vaccination rules. In my opinion, Moscow oblast (a separate region around the city of Moscow) will follow the example, and with certain lag other regions will implement more or less the same rules, too.
#corona
Daily reminder that Russians are pretty based, while the Russian govt and president usually are not
#corona
#corona
Moscow and Moscow oblast cancelled qr-code system. Every vaccinated person acquired such code and got opportunity to visit restaraunts, bars, certain parks and museums. Yes, these rules were introduced soon after de-facto obligatary vaccination requirements for millions of Russians.
Apart from evident struggle against the virus, the goals of these restrictions were clear. Russia registered its vaccine first in the world, since the end of 2020 Russia produces 3 types of vaccines. Still nobody in Russia cared about this. In Russia we don't trust the government, and we have a very long list of the reasons why we do so. The reluctance of Russians to take Sputnik V looked bad for business, after all the government sells this vaccine to Latin American and African countries, in Europe some Balkan countries and Hungary also bought Sputnik V. The further expansion depends on many factors, and image is one of them. If the vaccine is not trusted in the homeland, it will be harder to convince foreign governments to buy it. Russia is a market itself with 146mln of people, which can bring profit to Russian pharma companies.
From the beginning business-owners (those, who survived the lockdown of spring 2020) told the government that they would die under qr-code system, because the level of vaccination was 12% on national scale. Just like every other coronavirus vaccine, Sputnik V (and two less popular vaccines produced in Russia) has two doses, which must be injected with approximately two weeks interval. So you can't take the first shot and go to the restaraunt immediately.
The officials realized that access in restaraunts for the vaccinated only can cause the collapse of industry, and allowed people without qr-codes to eat on verandas (if an establishment has it). My experience tells me that such rules didn't have any chance to be followed. Within two weeks I attended two restaurants without qr-codes, and my friends also told me that usually they didn't have any problems. Unfortunately, big food-chains, like McDonald's, Burger King, KFC, and their Russian analogues followed the orders of the Moscow government, but independent establishments usually let people in.
Since qr-codes will be cancelled on Monday (the obligatory vaccination of 60% of employees in certain industries stays), it's time to make some conclusions on obligatory vaccination, qr-code system, and the vaccine itself.
1. The main goal to increase the number of vaccinated people was reached. Officially 21% of Russians took the first shot, two times more than one month ago.
2. Every number related to covid (cases, dead people, vaccinated people) is a lie. Within two years the government manipulated statistics too often to believe in it. The number of corona cases always decreases when the Kremlin needs it (rereferendum on constitution, UEFA Championship, some election days) and increases for the same reason (protests, some election campaigns). As for vaccination, people who don't want to take the vaccine try to buy falsificated vaccination certificates, bribe doctors etc. We will never know how many people out of 21% didn't take anything.
3. It seems, two out of three vaccines help (one is completely useless), but not as good as it is described. You still can get corona, new corona-strains diminish the effectiveness of the vaccines, side-effects are frequent, but they pass quickly. Very rare I hear about people who took the vaccine and died, but mostly these are rumours which I can't check. For now I know for sure about one person who died and one person who became disabled. Pretty sure, there are more cases, but it is impossible to get solid data about them. Of course I can't guarantee that the vaccine won't influence people in the long run. Finally, the vaccine doesn't last long. It seems it is more or less effective for 6-9 months.
4. The covid limitations will stay one way or another for a very long time, just because it is the best way to control the population.
#corona
Apart from evident struggle against the virus, the goals of these restrictions were clear. Russia registered its vaccine first in the world, since the end of 2020 Russia produces 3 types of vaccines. Still nobody in Russia cared about this. In Russia we don't trust the government, and we have a very long list of the reasons why we do so. The reluctance of Russians to take Sputnik V looked bad for business, after all the government sells this vaccine to Latin American and African countries, in Europe some Balkan countries and Hungary also bought Sputnik V. The further expansion depends on many factors, and image is one of them. If the vaccine is not trusted in the homeland, it will be harder to convince foreign governments to buy it. Russia is a market itself with 146mln of people, which can bring profit to Russian pharma companies.
From the beginning business-owners (those, who survived the lockdown of spring 2020) told the government that they would die under qr-code system, because the level of vaccination was 12% on national scale. Just like every other coronavirus vaccine, Sputnik V (and two less popular vaccines produced in Russia) has two doses, which must be injected with approximately two weeks interval. So you can't take the first shot and go to the restaraunt immediately.
The officials realized that access in restaraunts for the vaccinated only can cause the collapse of industry, and allowed people without qr-codes to eat on verandas (if an establishment has it). My experience tells me that such rules didn't have any chance to be followed. Within two weeks I attended two restaurants without qr-codes, and my friends also told me that usually they didn't have any problems. Unfortunately, big food-chains, like McDonald's, Burger King, KFC, and their Russian analogues followed the orders of the Moscow government, but independent establishments usually let people in.
Since qr-codes will be cancelled on Monday (the obligatory vaccination of 60% of employees in certain industries stays), it's time to make some conclusions on obligatory vaccination, qr-code system, and the vaccine itself.
1. The main goal to increase the number of vaccinated people was reached. Officially 21% of Russians took the first shot, two times more than one month ago.
2. Every number related to covid (cases, dead people, vaccinated people) is a lie. Within two years the government manipulated statistics too often to believe in it. The number of corona cases always decreases when the Kremlin needs it (rereferendum on constitution, UEFA Championship, some election days) and increases for the same reason (protests, some election campaigns). As for vaccination, people who don't want to take the vaccine try to buy falsificated vaccination certificates, bribe doctors etc. We will never know how many people out of 21% didn't take anything.
3. It seems, two out of three vaccines help (one is completely useless), but not as good as it is described. You still can get corona, new corona-strains diminish the effectiveness of the vaccines, side-effects are frequent, but they pass quickly. Very rare I hear about people who took the vaccine and died, but mostly these are rumours which I can't check. For now I know for sure about one person who died and one person who became disabled. Pretty sure, there are more cases, but it is impossible to get solid data about them. Of course I can't guarantee that the vaccine won't influence people in the long run. Finally, the vaccine doesn't last long. It seems it is more or less effective for 6-9 months.
4. The covid limitations will stay one way or another for a very long time, just because it is the best way to control the population.
#corona
Maybe I just have distortion of perception, but this year natural disasters look harsher than usual. Everywhere are floods, storms and fires. Russia was hit hard in multiple places, too.
It all started in the middle of June in Crimea. Heavy rains lasted since 17th to 19th of June, Kerch (the easternmost city of the peninsula) and Yalta (main resort with long beach area) were affected. Two people died in floods, hundreds of people were evacuated. For two days some places in Crimea had cut electricity.The republican government paid $3mln compensation. Two weeks later, on 4th of July, heavy rains started in the centre of Crimea. The consequences weren't that significant, though. That was a tragedy, indeed, but one with a silver lining. Crimea relied heavilly on Ukrainian water supply, which was cut in 2015. The lack of water was (and is) a very serious problem for Crimean republic and City of Sevastopol. To tackle this issue the Russian government invested a lot into drilling new wells and creating new water reservoirs. After all these heavy rains the reservoirs have water for one year.
While Crimea was drowning, some regions were struggling against the fires. It's hard to say when the fires in Yakutia republic started, because the regional government tried to hide their scale, even persecuted local bloggers who tried to attract attention. The fires made the headlines in previous week, when the capital of Yakutia was covered with smog. Approximately 1mln ha. was burnt (according to Greenpeace data, the real number three times higher), including some parts of national park "Lena pillars". Due to lack of finances Yakutia looses its forest every year. The square of burnt territories this time equals one Lebanon (or Belgium, if you believe Greenpiece). The governmental media now report that number of fires diminished after the involvement of the Kremlin. Still, Yakutia is not the only affected region. The forests burn in many different regions, including republic of Karelia (borders Finland), Irkutsk oblast and some others.
Today, on 23rd of July, rainstorms caused floods in Zabaikalsky Krai. The streams of water destroyed one of the bridges of the Trans-Siberian Railway. This disaster cut the transit between the regions on Pacific coast and the west of the country. The situation is very serious. There are only two railroads in this part of the country, and both of them are stretched to capacity. The failure of one of them can make some regions cut from national transport network. The Russian railroads company promised to repair the bridge within 3 days.
#nature
It all started in the middle of June in Crimea. Heavy rains lasted since 17th to 19th of June, Kerch (the easternmost city of the peninsula) and Yalta (main resort with long beach area) were affected. Two people died in floods, hundreds of people were evacuated. For two days some places in Crimea had cut electricity.The republican government paid $3mln compensation. Two weeks later, on 4th of July, heavy rains started in the centre of Crimea. The consequences weren't that significant, though. That was a tragedy, indeed, but one with a silver lining. Crimea relied heavilly on Ukrainian water supply, which was cut in 2015. The lack of water was (and is) a very serious problem for Crimean republic and City of Sevastopol. To tackle this issue the Russian government invested a lot into drilling new wells and creating new water reservoirs. After all these heavy rains the reservoirs have water for one year.
While Crimea was drowning, some regions were struggling against the fires. It's hard to say when the fires in Yakutia republic started, because the regional government tried to hide their scale, even persecuted local bloggers who tried to attract attention. The fires made the headlines in previous week, when the capital of Yakutia was covered with smog. Approximately 1mln ha. was burnt (according to Greenpeace data, the real number three times higher), including some parts of national park "Lena pillars". Due to lack of finances Yakutia looses its forest every year. The square of burnt territories this time equals one Lebanon (or Belgium, if you believe Greenpiece). The governmental media now report that number of fires diminished after the involvement of the Kremlin. Still, Yakutia is not the only affected region. The forests burn in many different regions, including republic of Karelia (borders Finland), Irkutsk oblast and some others.
Today, on 23rd of July, rainstorms caused floods in Zabaikalsky Krai. The streams of water destroyed one of the bridges of the Trans-Siberian Railway. This disaster cut the transit between the regions on Pacific coast and the west of the country. The situation is very serious. There are only two railroads in this part of the country, and both of them are stretched to capacity. The failure of one of them can make some regions cut from national transport network. The Russian railroads company promised to repair the bridge within 3 days.
#nature
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Red - fires, blue - floods. Sorry for Madskillz, I will think about normal graphics in future
Cargo spacecraft "Progress" detached "Pirs" (Pier) module from International Space Station. Then both of them drowned in the Pacific ocean, as it was planned. The new module, known as "Nauka" (Science) will be attached to the station tomorrow, on 29th of July (if everything goes right).
UPD: everything went fine, "Nauka" is successfully attached to the Station
#space
UPD: everything went fine, "Nauka" is successfully attached to the Station
#space
I understand those who are happy with American defeat in Afghanistan. Still, everyone should remember that the US always uses geography to its advantage. To put it simply, America is far from Afghanistan. They didn't solve Afghani problems (if they wanted to) and now they fly away. So this old-new unpredictable Afghanistan is now a problem for its neighbours, Middle Asia, and Russia.
Taliban can try to expand its influence on Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan or even organize military or terrorist operations on their territory. An extremely fragile Tajikistan looks like perfect target for such actions. Also drug trafficking from Afghanistan can increase. Apart from drugs and new conflicts, Middle Asia will face a flow of refugees. Yes, thousands of people with civil war experience who have nothing to lose will (in fact, they already do) move to already unstable Middle Asian countries. In apocalyptic scenario this would cause absolute collapse of secular authoritarian regimes on post-soviet Middle Asia and jeopardize the very existence of present-day Russia.
Still, it's hard to say what Taliban will do, moreover, maybe nothing will happen at all. Russian politics in Afghanistan is balanced in many ways. The Kremlin established good relations with former government (they even recognized Crimea as Russian territory) and in recent years Russia intensified its contacts with Taliban (although, they are considered as terrorists by Russia, which is kinda funny, taking their official negotiations in Moscow). Apart from diplomatic efforts, Russia conducted several military drills with China, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, showing that potential agression of Taliban won't be left without response.
So I hope for the best and read pro-western Ukrainian media. Let's say, authors there are not happy. It seems, they don't want to be the guys from the video below.
#international #afghanistan
Taliban can try to expand its influence on Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan or even organize military or terrorist operations on their territory. An extremely fragile Tajikistan looks like perfect target for such actions. Also drug trafficking from Afghanistan can increase. Apart from drugs and new conflicts, Middle Asia will face a flow of refugees. Yes, thousands of people with civil war experience who have nothing to lose will (in fact, they already do) move to already unstable Middle Asian countries. In apocalyptic scenario this would cause absolute collapse of secular authoritarian regimes on post-soviet Middle Asia and jeopardize the very existence of present-day Russia.
Still, it's hard to say what Taliban will do, moreover, maybe nothing will happen at all. Russian politics in Afghanistan is balanced in many ways. The Kremlin established good relations with former government (they even recognized Crimea as Russian territory) and in recent years Russia intensified its contacts with Taliban (although, they are considered as terrorists by Russia, which is kinda funny, taking their official negotiations in Moscow). Apart from diplomatic efforts, Russia conducted several military drills with China, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, showing that potential agression of Taliban won't be left without response.
So I hope for the best and read pro-western Ukrainian media. Let's say, authors there are not happy. It seems, they don't want to be the guys from the video below.
#international #afghanistan
In recent days Russia lost two airplanes.
The first was Be-200, an amphibious airplane designed for firefighting. The planes of this type were leased by Turkey, which suffers from fires. Hard to say, what caused the crash on 14th of August, but it happened leaving no survivors: 5 Russians and 3 Turks were onboard. Investigation is underway, but the real question for Russia is should we send firefighting planes abroad, while our forests in Siberia are burning in large scale right now.
The second tragedy happened today, during the test of a new transport plane Il-112V. Usually the transport planes in Russian Army are Soviet An-26, which produced in Ukraine. Since the collapse of the USSR Russian authorities were thinking about brand new Russian transport plane. In 2014, when the conflicts in Crimea and Donbass started, the independence of Russian aircraft construction from Ukraine became crucial. Apart from military purpose, such planes have a potential to substitute an outdated Soviet aviation in remote areas of Russia with low population density, mostly in Siberia and the Far East. Anyway, the plane crash showed that Il-12V is not ready to fulfill its tasks. The whole crew is dead, among them was a prominent test-pilot, a hero of Russia Nikolay Kuimov.
#aviation
The first was Be-200, an amphibious airplane designed for firefighting. The planes of this type were leased by Turkey, which suffers from fires. Hard to say, what caused the crash on 14th of August, but it happened leaving no survivors: 5 Russians and 3 Turks were onboard. Investigation is underway, but the real question for Russia is should we send firefighting planes abroad, while our forests in Siberia are burning in large scale right now.
The second tragedy happened today, during the test of a new transport plane Il-112V. Usually the transport planes in Russian Army are Soviet An-26, which produced in Ukraine. Since the collapse of the USSR Russian authorities were thinking about brand new Russian transport plane. In 2014, when the conflicts in Crimea and Donbass started, the independence of Russian aircraft construction from Ukraine became crucial. Apart from military purpose, such planes have a potential to substitute an outdated Soviet aviation in remote areas of Russia with low population density, mostly in Siberia and the Far East. Anyway, the plane crash showed that Il-12V is not ready to fulfill its tasks. The whole crew is dead, among them was a prominent test-pilot, a hero of Russia Nikolay Kuimov.
#aviation
Yesterday another Russian plane, MIG-29, crashed in Astrakhan oblast. A pilot died.
I don't want to turn the channel into the registry of crashed planes, so maybe it's time to tell you about August month in Russian history, to be more precise, in history of Russian Federation. In short, this month is cursed.
1991 - pro-soviet hardliners organize coup attempt. It fails, any chances to restore Soviet union were lost
1992 - plane crash in Ivanovo oblast. 84 people died
1994 - collapse of the MMM financial pyramide, the biggest in Russian history, because people after 70 years of planned economy weren't that good in financial literacy. Also in August 1994 one dam in Baskiria republic was broken (29 people died, almost 800 lost their homes) and train crashed in Belgorod oblast (20 people died, 56 injured).
1996 - Chechen terrorists attacked Grozny and captured it, except some governmental buildings and airport. On 31st of August First Chechen war came to an end, basically Chechens won. Also the Russian plane crashed in Norway (141 people dead).
1998 - Russian govt declares default. People lost their savings
1999 - Chechens invaded Dagestan republic. The second Chechen war started
2000 - submarine Kursk sank (180 people died)
2002 - storm in Novorossiysk (46 dead). Chechen terrorists shot down military transport plane, 127 people died. Probably the biggest one-time loss in military history of RF
2003 - terrorists blew up a hospital in North Ossetia. 53 people died
2004 - terrorists attacked Grozny (76 people died), blew up two planes (89 people died) and metro station in Moscow (10 people died)
2006 - one terrorist attack in Moscow (10 people died) and plane crash (170 people died)
2008 - war in Georgia
2009 - terrorist attacks in Ingushetia republic, 25 people died. Also an accident on power station in Khakassia republic. 75 people died
2010 - forest fires. Moscow was in smog
2013 - floods in the Far East
2014 - active phase of Donbass war from July to August
2019 - forest fires in Siberia. Since that year they become annual
Of course there is rational explanation to all of this: summer is the best time for military actions, in summer people go on vacation and that puts additional pressure on transport infrastructure etc. Still, rationally or irrationally, I never expect good news this month.
#history
I don't want to turn the channel into the registry of crashed planes, so maybe it's time to tell you about August month in Russian history, to be more precise, in history of Russian Federation. In short, this month is cursed.
1991 - pro-soviet hardliners organize coup attempt. It fails, any chances to restore Soviet union were lost
1992 - plane crash in Ivanovo oblast. 84 people died
1994 - collapse of the MMM financial pyramide, the biggest in Russian history, because people after 70 years of planned economy weren't that good in financial literacy. Also in August 1994 one dam in Baskiria republic was broken (29 people died, almost 800 lost their homes) and train crashed in Belgorod oblast (20 people died, 56 injured).
1996 - Chechen terrorists attacked Grozny and captured it, except some governmental buildings and airport. On 31st of August First Chechen war came to an end, basically Chechens won. Also the Russian plane crashed in Norway (141 people dead).
1998 - Russian govt declares default. People lost their savings
1999 - Chechens invaded Dagestan republic. The second Chechen war started
2000 - submarine Kursk sank (180 people died)
2002 - storm in Novorossiysk (46 dead). Chechen terrorists shot down military transport plane, 127 people died. Probably the biggest one-time loss in military history of RF
2003 - terrorists blew up a hospital in North Ossetia. 53 people died
2004 - terrorists attacked Grozny (76 people died), blew up two planes (89 people died) and metro station in Moscow (10 people died)
2006 - one terrorist attack in Moscow (10 people died) and plane crash (170 people died)
2008 - war in Georgia
2009 - terrorist attacks in Ingushetia republic, 25 people died. Also an accident on power station in Khakassia republic. 75 people died
2010 - forest fires. Moscow was in smog
2013 - floods in the Far East
2014 - active phase of Donbass war from July to August
2019 - forest fires in Siberia. Since that year they become annual
Of course there is rational explanation to all of this: summer is the best time for military actions, in summer people go on vacation and that puts additional pressure on transport infrastructure etc. Still, rationally or irrationally, I never expect good news this month.
#history
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As I said, the natural disasters are very frequent this year. The forests of Yakutia still burn, although the scale of fires was diminished there. Now the fires are spreading in Ural and Volga federal districts. This video was made on the road between Yekaterinburg and Perm, two regional capitals.
Source: https://www.revda-info.ru/2021/08/24/na-trasse-pod-revdoj-strashnyj-lesnoj-pozhar-proezd-zakryt/
#nature
Source: https://www.revda-info.ru/2021/08/24/na-trasse-pod-revdoj-strashnyj-lesnoj-pozhar-proezd-zakryt/
#nature
The Eastern Forum is dedicated to the Asian part of Russia and relations with the Pacific region. I really like to read news from such events, because the decision-makers are in one place and it is easier to follow them.
For example, the forum discussed the idea of the Minister of Defense to build new cities in Siberia and the Far East. It is important to know that Shoigu is considered the grey cardinal of several Siberian regions, primarily his native Tuva republic and the neighboring Krasnoyarsk Krai. This initiative looks not only as concern for the Asian part of Russia, but rather as an attempt to start ambitious projects by providing federal money to the "right" people dependent on Shoigu. The proponents of the project promise abstract benefits like "development of Siberia", "new industrial and scientific clusters" etc. Therefore I haven't seen any papers with cost/benefit analysis.
In general, I have a bad attitude to the idea, since the population of Russia is shrinking and there is no objective need for new cities. Moreover, many cities in the Far East are rather poor, so it makes sense to direct resources to the places where people live now. Of course, the idea found both supporters and opponents. So far the opponents (mayors of existing cities, the president's representative in the Far East) still look more convincing.
However, the authorities promised to build some two cities anyway. The one in the Republic of Khakassia, the second near Vladivostok. Many Russian projects end in nothing, or change beyond recognition in the process. Thus it is not yet clear what will come out from Shoigu's idea.
#economy
For example, the forum discussed the idea of the Minister of Defense to build new cities in Siberia and the Far East. It is important to know that Shoigu is considered the grey cardinal of several Siberian regions, primarily his native Tuva republic and the neighboring Krasnoyarsk Krai. This initiative looks not only as concern for the Asian part of Russia, but rather as an attempt to start ambitious projects by providing federal money to the "right" people dependent on Shoigu. The proponents of the project promise abstract benefits like "development of Siberia", "new industrial and scientific clusters" etc. Therefore I haven't seen any papers with cost/benefit analysis.
In general, I have a bad attitude to the idea, since the population of Russia is shrinking and there is no objective need for new cities. Moreover, many cities in the Far East are rather poor, so it makes sense to direct resources to the places where people live now. Of course, the idea found both supporters and opponents. So far the opponents (mayors of existing cities, the president's representative in the Far East) still look more convincing.
However, the authorities promised to build some two cities anyway. The one in the Republic of Khakassia, the second near Vladivostok. Many Russian projects end in nothing, or change beyond recognition in the process. Thus it is not yet clear what will come out from Shoigu's idea.
#economy
Today Russia lost its minister of emergency situations, Evgeniy Zinichev. This person silently served in FSB for many years and was unknown to general public until 2016, when Putin appointed him the acting governor of Kaliningrad oblast. That was typical move, when a new person without anti-rating performs his duties for a couple of months, then win the elections. But this plan didn't work for Zinichev. The first press conference on his new position was a disaster: after 49 seconds Zinichev stopped it refusing answer the questions and went away. It all looked like escape. Zinichev was the acting governor of Kaliningrad oblast since July to October, after that the Kremlin granted him mercy and appointed him the minister of emergency situations, which suited Zinichev much more.
Today he participated in firefighters drill in Krasnoyarsk Krai, when suddenly one of the journalists, who was shooting the video, fall into the water from the cliff. Zinichev jumped into the water trying to save the journalist, but hit his head on a stone in the water. Unfortunately, both people died. No doubt that was a courageos act for Zinichev's part, so I press F.
#kaliningrad #obituary
Today he participated in firefighters drill in Krasnoyarsk Krai, when suddenly one of the journalists, who was shooting the video, fall into the water from the cliff. Zinichev jumped into the water trying to save the journalist, but hit his head on a stone in the water. Unfortunately, both people died. No doubt that was a courageos act for Zinichev's part, so I press F.
#kaliningrad #obituary
Before writing you need a topic. Elections are not a real topic for me. Once Viktor Chernomyrdin, the founder of Gazprom company, said:"Some think there will be something after the elections. Nothing will happen. Such is life". In general it is true for Russia.
Still some people asked me about the parliamentary elections, and I made a list of the important facts.
0. Russia has mixed elections system: we have both party lists and candidates in the different constituencies. The elections last for three days, and in some regions (including Moscow) you can vote electronically (I voted in such way because I'm not in Moscow rn and don't want to deal with different papers).
1.Technically, these elections must be important. In 2024 Putin must say whether he will participate in the presidential elections, or not. The next parliament will provide legal grounds for any decision made. Still the role of the parliament has been decreasing for many years, and I have no doubts that the next State Duma will be as obedient as possible.
2. Before the elections the Kremlin crushed every west-oriented independent media in the country, including rather small digital projects. For 6 months (more or less) the police and others organized a crackdown of many journals, NGOs, independent politicians etc.
3. It was virtually impossible for independent candidates to participate. Despite the official legal opportunity, many challengers weren't allowed to become official candidates due to completely opaque signature checks (you must collect signatures of thousands your supporters and apply to the election board to be registered). Basically, if you see an independent candidate in your ballot, 99% he is United Russia affiliated politician, who fears high disaproval rates of that party in his constituency.
4. The only real way for politicians to appear in the ballot is to go on elections from some parties. All of them are controlled by the presidential administration at certain degree. It sounds paradoxical, but it is easier for weak candidates to participate in elections from parties, because strong candidates irritate the Kremlin, and parties (in most cases) don't want to enter the conflict over candidates.
5. Before the elections some new parties appeared. The most prominent are "New people", a project for soft liberals, and "Just Russia for life", the socialists with some nationalist shades. New people party got a broad media coverage (impossible without approval of the Kremlin), so the only intrigue is whether they are passing the threshold or not.
6. Many violations this time. I use this word because members of local election boards usually make mistakes due to their low qualification, rather than deliberate intention to falsify smth. Still, the number of evident falsifications is bigger than usual, too. "Golos" NGO, the biggest association of monitors, registered more than 4k incidents. That hits the record of 2012
I will cover elections further after getting the final results.
#elections
Still some people asked me about the parliamentary elections, and I made a list of the important facts.
0. Russia has mixed elections system: we have both party lists and candidates in the different constituencies. The elections last for three days, and in some regions (including Moscow) you can vote electronically (I voted in such way because I'm not in Moscow rn and don't want to deal with different papers).
1.Technically, these elections must be important. In 2024 Putin must say whether he will participate in the presidential elections, or not. The next parliament will provide legal grounds for any decision made. Still the role of the parliament has been decreasing for many years, and I have no doubts that the next State Duma will be as obedient as possible.
2. Before the elections the Kremlin crushed every west-oriented independent media in the country, including rather small digital projects. For 6 months (more or less) the police and others organized a crackdown of many journals, NGOs, independent politicians etc.
3. It was virtually impossible for independent candidates to participate. Despite the official legal opportunity, many challengers weren't allowed to become official candidates due to completely opaque signature checks (you must collect signatures of thousands your supporters and apply to the election board to be registered). Basically, if you see an independent candidate in your ballot, 99% he is United Russia affiliated politician, who fears high disaproval rates of that party in his constituency.
4. The only real way for politicians to appear in the ballot is to go on elections from some parties. All of them are controlled by the presidential administration at certain degree. It sounds paradoxical, but it is easier for weak candidates to participate in elections from parties, because strong candidates irritate the Kremlin, and parties (in most cases) don't want to enter the conflict over candidates.
5. Before the elections some new parties appeared. The most prominent are "New people", a project for soft liberals, and "Just Russia for life", the socialists with some nationalist shades. New people party got a broad media coverage (impossible without approval of the Kremlin), so the only intrigue is whether they are passing the threshold or not.
6. Many violations this time. I use this word because members of local election boards usually make mistakes due to their low qualification, rather than deliberate intention to falsify smth. Still, the number of evident falsifications is bigger than usual, too. "Golos" NGO, the biggest association of monitors, registered more than 4k incidents. That hits the record of 2012
I will cover elections further after getting the final results.
#elections
The last post about the elections.
1. United Russia got constitutional majority
2. Communists enjoyed limited support from liberals and got more seats than before
3. LDPR lost a lot of seats. That happened due to variety of reasons. First, they didn't try to save the governor of Khabarovsk Krai from jail. Second, too many parties used the same agenda as LDPR this time.
4. New people party entered the parliament. I tried to describe them shortly as soft liberals, and in my opinion this is the best definition. The evident problem is they were created by the Kremlin and can't be the real opposition
5. Falsifications? Yes, 15-20% of United Russia votes. Also this electronic voting system looks very suspicious
On the pic: 1) votes for party lists 2) votes for candidates in consituencies
#elections
1. United Russia got constitutional majority
2. Communists enjoyed limited support from liberals and got more seats than before
3. LDPR lost a lot of seats. That happened due to variety of reasons. First, they didn't try to save the governor of Khabarovsk Krai from jail. Second, too many parties used the same agenda as LDPR this time.
4. New people party entered the parliament. I tried to describe them shortly as soft liberals, and in my opinion this is the best definition. The evident problem is they were created by the Kremlin and can't be the real opposition
5. Falsifications? Yes, 15-20% of United Russia votes. Also this electronic voting system looks very suspicious
On the pic: 1) votes for party lists 2) votes for candidates in consituencies
#elections
Moscow met the New Year one hour ago. In recent months I abandoned the channel due to many reasons, the most important of them was my laziness. Russian analogue of Santa doesn't give coal to bad children, but I feel guilty anyway and gonna be back on track starting from tomorrow. Now I just wish you to be happy in 2022
One of the calmest country in the post soviet territory is Kazakhstan. It doesn't mean there weren't protests, but usually such actions do not cover the whole country. Yesterday the situation changed.
The government raised prices on gas, and the riots started in the western part of the country. Since these parts of Kazakhstan actually have gas and oil fields, many people work there as miners, the frustration of locals who felt robbed led to the conflict. Actually, these parts of Kazakstan protest from time to time, so nobody expected anything more.
Then Almaty, the first capital of republic, followed the west. Situation started looking bad. In some places the protesters won the fights against the police and took their equipment. Kazakh bureaucracy reacted two-fold. On the one hand, Mr. Tokaev, the president of the country, dismissed the government which failed to sustain the stability of Kazakhstan and promised 10% discount on gas. On the other hand the police promised to punish the most active protesters.
It seems some protesters demand the resignation of Nazarbaev. This is the first president of Kazakhstan, now he is the chairman of the security council. In my opinion, he solved the succession problem in elegant way, eventually giving up his power to other political institutions while staying the final arbiter for the Kazakh elites. It worked for a time, but the plans of Nazarbaev to stay in Kazakh politics for life can be broken. It's double interesting for me because Putin planned to do smth like that, too.
Do protesters have a chance to succeed? Well, organized opposition is absent in Kazakhstan, so nobody can properly direct the protests. Rumor has it Tokaev wants to become the one and only ruler of Kazakhstan, so he can use these protests to get rid of Nazarbaev. In my opinion it is not true. My experience tells me that post-soviet bureaucrats are not very creative, and they consider the protests too dangerous to use them. The elites in Kazakhstan are not split, so I doubt the protesters find some friends among the officials. Time is the essence. If the police take control over the streets soon, the protesting masses won't have time to find leaders among them and the protests fail.
#international #kazakhstan
The government raised prices on gas, and the riots started in the western part of the country. Since these parts of Kazakhstan actually have gas and oil fields, many people work there as miners, the frustration of locals who felt robbed led to the conflict. Actually, these parts of Kazakstan protest from time to time, so nobody expected anything more.
Then Almaty, the first capital of republic, followed the west. Situation started looking bad. In some places the protesters won the fights against the police and took their equipment. Kazakh bureaucracy reacted two-fold. On the one hand, Mr. Tokaev, the president of the country, dismissed the government which failed to sustain the stability of Kazakhstan and promised 10% discount on gas. On the other hand the police promised to punish the most active protesters.
It seems some protesters demand the resignation of Nazarbaev. This is the first president of Kazakhstan, now he is the chairman of the security council. In my opinion, he solved the succession problem in elegant way, eventually giving up his power to other political institutions while staying the final arbiter for the Kazakh elites. It worked for a time, but the plans of Nazarbaev to stay in Kazakh politics for life can be broken. It's double interesting for me because Putin planned to do smth like that, too.
Do protesters have a chance to succeed? Well, organized opposition is absent in Kazakhstan, so nobody can properly direct the protests. Rumor has it Tokaev wants to become the one and only ruler of Kazakhstan, so he can use these protests to get rid of Nazarbaev. In my opinion it is not true. My experience tells me that post-soviet bureaucrats are not very creative, and they consider the protests too dangerous to use them. The elites in Kazakhstan are not split, so I doubt the protesters find some friends among the officials. Time is the essence. If the police take control over the streets soon, the protesting masses won't have time to find leaders among them and the protests fail.
#international #kazakhstan
Why Kazakhstan is important for Russia?
1. Geography. Kazakhstan and Russia share the longest border in the world, 7598km. In case of refugees influx or terrorist infiltriation this border will be hard to protect. Also it's important that Kazakhstan separates Russia from less developed Central Asian states and at least in part absorbs their labour migrants. Furthermore, Kazakhstan provides China transit routes to the European Union in addition to Trans-Siberian railway.
2. Politics. Present-day regime in Kazakhstan is relatively friendly to Russia. Both countries are members of Eurasian union (common market), Commonwealth of Independent States (open borders before covid era), and now famous Collective Security Treaty Organization, a defensive military alliance of some post-soviet states led by Russia. Despite close ties with Russia, Kazakh elites always try to diversify their relations. Kazakhstan represents itself as one of the Turkic nations, which pleases Turkey. For China Kazakhstan is a reliable oil supplier and transit country, part of "Silk road" initiative. Western companies also have their piece of Kazakh oil pie, the biggest oil field in the country belongs to subsdiary of Chevron and Kazakh government.
3. The Russians. Russian language is the second official language in the country, and Russian minority numbered 3,47mln people, 18% of country population. Mostly they live in Northern parts of Kazakhstan. It should be noted that Russians in Kazakhstan face substantial discrimination in civil service, political representation and business. A lot of ethnic Russians left Kazakhstan since the collapse of the Soviet union.
4. Military. Russia has 7 important military installments in Kazakhstan. The most famous are Baykonur, Russian space port, and some parts of rocket launch site called Kapustin Yar. Also Russia has one airbase, some radars and rocket polygons in different parts of Kazakhstan.
5. Commodities. Oil is Kazakhstan's major export, and Russian companies have some shares in different oil fields. Still, Russian involvement in Kazakh oil industry is limited. What really matters is uranium. In 2020 Kazakhstan mined 19800 tons of uranium, that's 42% of the world production. Approximately 20% of uranium production of Kazakhstan is in hands of Rosatom. Needless to say, that violent attempt of regime change in Kazakhstan can blew a large hole of international security. Nobody wants a "dirty bomb" on his doorstep.
#international #kazakhstan
1. Geography. Kazakhstan and Russia share the longest border in the world, 7598km. In case of refugees influx or terrorist infiltriation this border will be hard to protect. Also it's important that Kazakhstan separates Russia from less developed Central Asian states and at least in part absorbs their labour migrants. Furthermore, Kazakhstan provides China transit routes to the European Union in addition to Trans-Siberian railway.
2. Politics. Present-day regime in Kazakhstan is relatively friendly to Russia. Both countries are members of Eurasian union (common market), Commonwealth of Independent States (open borders before covid era), and now famous Collective Security Treaty Organization, a defensive military alliance of some post-soviet states led by Russia. Despite close ties with Russia, Kazakh elites always try to diversify their relations. Kazakhstan represents itself as one of the Turkic nations, which pleases Turkey. For China Kazakhstan is a reliable oil supplier and transit country, part of "Silk road" initiative. Western companies also have their piece of Kazakh oil pie, the biggest oil field in the country belongs to subsdiary of Chevron and Kazakh government.
3. The Russians. Russian language is the second official language in the country, and Russian minority numbered 3,47mln people, 18% of country population. Mostly they live in Northern parts of Kazakhstan. It should be noted that Russians in Kazakhstan face substantial discrimination in civil service, political representation and business. A lot of ethnic Russians left Kazakhstan since the collapse of the Soviet union.
4. Military. Russia has 7 important military installments in Kazakhstan. The most famous are Baykonur, Russian space port, and some parts of rocket launch site called Kapustin Yar. Also Russia has one airbase, some radars and rocket polygons in different parts of Kazakhstan.
5. Commodities. Oil is Kazakhstan's major export, and Russian companies have some shares in different oil fields. Still, Russian involvement in Kazakh oil industry is limited. What really matters is uranium. In 2020 Kazakhstan mined 19800 tons of uranium, that's 42% of the world production. Approximately 20% of uranium production of Kazakhstan is in hands of Rosatom. Needless to say, that violent attempt of regime change in Kazakhstan can blew a large hole of international security. Nobody wants a "dirty bomb" on his doorstep.
#international #kazakhstan
I'm really tired of these rumors about war in Ukraine. The probability of Russians attacking first is very low. The probability that Ukrainians start offensive operation in Donbass and Russia will have to retaliate is higher.
Still, majority of Ukrainian politicians don't want the war, because Ukrainian economy cannot endure the conflict against Russia. It's not about obvious inability of Ukrainian troops to fight against full-scale Russian intervention.
In recent two years Ukrainian economy faced many challenges, especially in energy sector, and now every Ukrainian action in military sphere will lead to rolling blackouts without Russian gas and oil. This dependency is aggravated by spoiled relations between Belarus and Ukraine. I do not believe that in war scenario Belarus will let Russians attack Ukraine from its territory. Nevertheless, the transit of Russian oil and gas through Belarus will be stopped.
#international #Ukraine
Still, majority of Ukrainian politicians don't want the war, because Ukrainian economy cannot endure the conflict against Russia. It's not about obvious inability of Ukrainian troops to fight against full-scale Russian intervention.
In recent two years Ukrainian economy faced many challenges, especially in energy sector, and now every Ukrainian action in military sphere will lead to rolling blackouts without Russian gas and oil. This dependency is aggravated by spoiled relations between Belarus and Ukraine. I do not believe that in war scenario Belarus will let Russians attack Ukraine from its territory. Nevertheless, the transit of Russian oil and gas through Belarus will be stopped.
#international #Ukraine