Content plan for this week.
10th. Russia and Ukraine
11th. Lunar and Solar Putin
12th. Muslims in Russia
I must post this, otherwise the procrastination will prevail
10th. Russia and Ukraine
11th. Lunar and Solar Putin
12th. Muslims in Russia
I must post this, otherwise the procrastination will prevail
Today Orthodox Christians celebrate Easter. The most devout believers usually have Easter Vigil liturgy, but due to coronavirus everybody just watches translation on tv. I'm already eating kulich, a traditional round cake. Apart from kulich, at Easter Russians eat eggs colored (mostly) in red. The egg is a symbol of tomb of Jesus, and red color means His blood.
At Easter people in Russia greet each other with words "Christ is risen", "Truly risen", but 70 years of Soviet atheism and contemporary spread of liberals create awkward situations for believers all the time. Still, this tradition is alive.
One week ago Orthodox Christians had Palm Sunday. There are no palms on the North, so Slavs and Baltic ethnicities (Bulgarians, Ukrainians, Poles, Lithuanians, Russians and other) usually use pussy willow in their rituals instead.
At Easter people in Russia greet each other with words "Christ is risen", "Truly risen", but 70 years of Soviet atheism and contemporary spread of liberals create awkward situations for believers all the time. Still, this tradition is alive.
One week ago Orthodox Christians had Palm Sunday. There are no palms on the North, so Slavs and Baltic ethnicities (Bulgarians, Ukrainians, Poles, Lithuanians, Russians and other) usually use pussy willow in their rituals instead.
Let's talk oil again.
One month ago OPEC+ countries wanted to strike a deal on reduction of oil mining. They failed. The exact reasons are unknown, but according to the media, Russian concerns were:
1. The biggest oil producer in the world (the US) didn't participate in the meeting
2. Saudis wanted Russia to cut production too much
After negotiations failed on 6th of March, Russian economy faced ideal storm of covid-19 quarantine measures and falling oil prices. American dollar exchange rate reacted first: it rose from 67₽ to 83₽ for 1$. I don't want to speculate about other indicators, because losses of Russian economy will be evaluated properly in the beginning of 2021, and still it would be impossible to separate impact of oil prices drop from quarantine implementation.
On 11th of April the new agreements were reached. Russia cut 18% of oil mining, Saudi Arabia 13%, and the US companies 15%-23%. The oil war came to an end for obvious reason: nobody buys oil because of the pandemic, and oil storages would be full within two-three months.
The next two questions which are important now for oil market, are:
1. For how long quarantine in Europe, India and the US will last? (Demand of oil)
2. Will the participants of OPEC++ agreements comply with the set limits of oil mining? (Supply of oil)
I can't answer the first question, but I doubt that Russia will fulfill its promise to cut oil production to 8,5mln bpd. The previous OPEC+ deal signed in 2016 showed that Russian officials didn't care about any limitations and made Russia the second oil producer after the US. So I'm sure that #oil_war and #oil hashtags won't disappear from this channel completely.
P.S. today 1$ costs 73₽
One month ago OPEC+ countries wanted to strike a deal on reduction of oil mining. They failed. The exact reasons are unknown, but according to the media, Russian concerns were:
1. The biggest oil producer in the world (the US) didn't participate in the meeting
2. Saudis wanted Russia to cut production too much
After negotiations failed on 6th of March, Russian economy faced ideal storm of covid-19 quarantine measures and falling oil prices. American dollar exchange rate reacted first: it rose from 67₽ to 83₽ for 1$. I don't want to speculate about other indicators, because losses of Russian economy will be evaluated properly in the beginning of 2021, and still it would be impossible to separate impact of oil prices drop from quarantine implementation.
On 11th of April the new agreements were reached. Russia cut 18% of oil mining, Saudi Arabia 13%, and the US companies 15%-23%. The oil war came to an end for obvious reason: nobody buys oil because of the pandemic, and oil storages would be full within two-three months.
The next two questions which are important now for oil market, are:
1. For how long quarantine in Europe, India and the US will last? (Demand of oil)
2. Will the participants of OPEC++ agreements comply with the set limits of oil mining? (Supply of oil)
I can't answer the first question, but I doubt that Russia will fulfill its promise to cut oil production to 8,5mln bpd. The previous OPEC+ deal signed in 2016 showed that Russian officials didn't care about any limitations and made Russia the second oil producer after the US. So I'm sure that #oil_war and #oil hashtags won't disappear from this channel completely.
P.S. today 1$ costs 73₽
I promised to write some news about Russia too. Ok. Today the whole country is looking on the North Ossetia (Alania), a small poor republic in the North Caucasian federal region. People took to streets and demanded abolition of quarantine measures. The head of the republic talked to people and promised help to the poor. Still, some protesters were arrested afterwards.
Why did it happen?
1. Values.
Latest poll of Gallup and its Russian partner Romir showed that 28% of Russians are not ready to give up their rights because of coronavirus. That's the second result in the world after the US (29%).
2. Social security.
Quarantine measures hit Russian economy. While registered employees can count on some (at least partial) compensation, illegal self-employed and those who have unregistered business (that's typical story for the North Caucasus) stopped operating and were left without income.
3. Regional politics. The leftist opposition used people's frustration and mobilized them.
Many experts fear that this meeting made epidemiological situation worse. Taking into account that Easter vigil in North Ossetia wasn't cancelled (unlike the vast majority of their Muslim neighbours, Ossetians are predominantly Orthodox Christians), the threat of outbreak in the republic is very high. Till that moment North Ossetia reported 120 cases and 7 deceased.
#protest #north_ossetia #corona
Why did it happen?
1. Values.
Latest poll of Gallup and its Russian partner Romir showed that 28% of Russians are not ready to give up their rights because of coronavirus. That's the second result in the world after the US (29%).
2. Social security.
Quarantine measures hit Russian economy. While registered employees can count on some (at least partial) compensation, illegal self-employed and those who have unregistered business (that's typical story for the North Caucasus) stopped operating and were left without income.
3. Regional politics. The leftist opposition used people's frustration and mobilized them.
Many experts fear that this meeting made epidemiological situation worse. Taking into account that Easter vigil in North Ossetia wasn't cancelled (unlike the vast majority of their Muslim neighbours, Ossetians are predominantly Orthodox Christians), the threat of outbreak in the republic is very high. Till that moment North Ossetia reported 120 cases and 7 deceased.
#protest #north_ossetia #corona
These meme guys from Ghana were invited to the local tv. Kinda funny, that their dj has chosen the Russian track Astronomia by Tony Igy (Anton Igumnov) from Rostov oblast.
#culture
#culture
Forwarded from Новости. Как есть
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Гробовщики из Ганы прикатили на местное ТВ, показали свой танец и дали интервью. Даже они в масках
A very short update on corona. Russian PM desided to cosplay Boris Johnson and fall ill. The number of cases reached 100k across the country.
Still, I'm kinda optimistic about corona rn. New cases rate is 7%, which is less, than before, while death rate is 1%, and I haven't noticed any serious attempts to falsify the statistics. The ministry of defence built 16 brand new hospitals in Russia to prevent the high pressure on the healthcare system, and already existed hospitals were expanded. In my opinion, eventual lifting of quarantine measures on 12-13 of May proposed by the govt is still an option.
My biggest concern is economic crisis, and I will talk about it later.
#corona
Still, I'm kinda optimistic about corona rn. New cases rate is 7%, which is less, than before, while death rate is 1%, and I haven't noticed any serious attempts to falsify the statistics. The ministry of defence built 16 brand new hospitals in Russia to prevent the high pressure on the healthcare system, and already existed hospitals were expanded. In my opinion, eventual lifting of quarantine measures on 12-13 of May proposed by the govt is still an option.
My biggest concern is economic crisis, and I will talk about it later.
#corona
Victory over death in all its forms. Russian military doctors are returning from Italy.
Speaking of Mozambique. The insurgency on the North started in 2017. When government forces were easilly defeated, Mozambique decided to hire foreign mercenaries. The main competitors were Russian "Wagner" and Hong-Kong based "Frontier services group", which belongs to Erick Prince (I think you know that name). Wagner's services turned out to be cheaper, and this company won the tender. First 200 Russian mercenaries arrived in Mozambique in October, 2019. Since then they lost at least 10 people and didn't achieve any significant gains. It seems that Cabo Delgado province will remain a hotbed for islamic radicals for some time.
#international #mozambique
https://t.iss.one/BellumActaNews/22528
#international #mozambique
https://t.iss.one/BellumActaNews/22528
Telegram
Bellum Acta - Intel, Urgent News and Archives | COVID Crisis Edition
NATO Conflict Observer:
— "Things still not going well in Cabo Delgado, with 2 Soldiers killed and a fresh Chinese Tiger 4x4 APC (Equipped with W85 HMG) captured by IS Central Africa.
I belive the first time I've seen one of these captured."
https://t…
— "Things still not going well in Cabo Delgado, with 2 Soldiers killed and a fresh Chinese Tiger 4x4 APC (Equipped with W85 HMG) captured by IS Central Africa.
I belive the first time I've seen one of these captured."
https://t…
The coronavirus death rate in Russia is 1%. It is low because of many reasons:
1. Soviet-style healthcare system with large amount of beds in clinics per population. As I've written before, new hospitals were built from scratch to tackle the virus.
2. Unfortunately, the lifespan of average Russian is pretty short, it lasts 73 years. The most vulnerable to coronavirus age group is just too small to increase national death rate significantly.
3. Russian statistics includes only those people who died because of coronavirus, and not those, who just had it. All deceased coronavirus patients' bodies pass screening to define the exact reason of death. Once again, such measures are possible because national healthcare system is not overloaded.
4. I must admit that the scale of testing (which was a problem in March) increased from rather humble beginnings. More than 6,1mln tests were made, and this number is rising. Broad screening detects all potential patients, even if they don't have symptoms, and this large group is taken as a base for death rate counting.
5. I've just read an article about Turkish experience, and people there claim that almost half of covid death cases in developed countries are linked with nursing houses for elder people, while in Turkey they are almost non-existent, that is why Turkey has low death rate. Same for Russia: nursing houses are very rare here. Elder people can be supported by the family, by the state or non-profit volunteers, or live alone until they can. If lonely elder people can't take care of themselves and can't get support, they die. I think it differs from muslim countries experience, but Russia is a tough country.
#corona
1. Soviet-style healthcare system with large amount of beds in clinics per population. As I've written before, new hospitals were built from scratch to tackle the virus.
2. Unfortunately, the lifespan of average Russian is pretty short, it lasts 73 years. The most vulnerable to coronavirus age group is just too small to increase national death rate significantly.
3. Russian statistics includes only those people who died because of coronavirus, and not those, who just had it. All deceased coronavirus patients' bodies pass screening to define the exact reason of death. Once again, such measures are possible because national healthcare system is not overloaded.
4. I must admit that the scale of testing (which was a problem in March) increased from rather humble beginnings. More than 6,1mln tests were made, and this number is rising. Broad screening detects all potential patients, even if they don't have symptoms, and this large group is taken as a base for death rate counting.
5. I've just read an article about Turkish experience, and people there claim that almost half of covid death cases in developed countries are linked with nursing houses for elder people, while in Turkey they are almost non-existent, that is why Turkey has low death rate. Same for Russia: nursing houses are very rare here. Elder people can be supported by the family, by the state or non-profit volunteers, or live alone until they can. If lonely elder people can't take care of themselves and can't get support, they die. I think it differs from muslim countries experience, but Russia is a tough country.
#corona
Long time ago one person asked me how did oil prices turn negative. I wrote an answer, adding some thoughts on the oil war and oil market in general.
https://telegra.ph/There-will-be-blood-04-20
#oil #oil_war
https://telegra.ph/There-will-be-blood-04-20
#oil #oil_war
Telegraph
There will be blood
Oil is the most important resource on our planet. Oil refined products are used by transport, in energy sector, a small share of oil is transformed into plastics. Very often, the so-called associated gas is extracted from oil, which also finds various uses.…
A small statistics review
Bad news
GDP in April: -28%
Uneployment in April: 5,8% (it was 4,7% in March)
Real income of people: -5%
Good news
Inflation: 3% (low, but still no deflation)
Trade balance: positive $35bln. That means that Russia sold more than bought, despite oil crisis
Currency rate: 1$=70₽. Yearly maximum was reached in March (83₽), yearly minimum was 67₽.
Overview. It seems that yearly GDP losses will be higher, than 8%, planned by Central bank, and lower than 16%, expected by Bloomberg experts. The situation with real income means the return to 2011. In previous 10 years Russian economy was in stagnation, and income of people didn't change much, that is why 5% loss is that significant. On the whole, Russian economic perfomance is better than expected, considering a combination of oil and corona crises.
#statistics #economy
Bad news
GDP in April: -28%
Uneployment in April: 5,8% (it was 4,7% in March)
Real income of people: -5%
Good news
Inflation: 3% (low, but still no deflation)
Trade balance: positive $35bln. That means that Russia sold more than bought, despite oil crisis
Currency rate: 1$=70₽. Yearly maximum was reached in March (83₽), yearly minimum was 67₽.
Overview. It seems that yearly GDP losses will be higher, than 8%, planned by Central bank, and lower than 16%, expected by Bloomberg experts. The situation with real income means the return to 2011. In previous 10 years Russian economy was in stagnation, and income of people didn't change much, that is why 5% loss is that significant. On the whole, Russian economic perfomance is better than expected, considering a combination of oil and corona crises.
#statistics #economy
In 2011 Russian president Dmitry Medvedev abstained from direct involvement in Libyan affairs. Gaddafi was killed, and new fragile pro-western government couldn't settle issues among islamists, different clans, local elites in cities, mercenaries from Sudan and Chad, and other actors. These conflicts inevitably provoked new civil war, which we observe today.
The state of war has two-fold consequences for Russia. On the one hand, Libya is oil-exporting country, and its eviction from the market doesn't sound as smth bad. Also for a short time Libyan case was used by Russian propagandists, who presented it as Russian future after the victory of liberal revolution (2011-2012 became the years of confrontation between liberals and Putin supporters). On the other hand, in a worn-torn Libya potentially lucrative assets can be obtained for low prices, and Russian oil companies, like Tatarstan-based Tatneft, Russian gas-giant Gazprom and the biggest oil company Rosneft used this opportunity. These companies became interested in stabilization of Libya.
In 2017-2018 after long time of meditation Russian elites chose their champion. Khalifa Haftar, the head of Libyan National Army, looked capable of defeating Government of National Accord and uniting the country. Also he was an (ex?)-CIA operative and the UAE/Egypt puppet, but Russian elites demonstrated tolerance to these minor drawbacks. Actually, forging the alliance with the UAE opened interesting opportunities for the Kremlin, because Emirates were ready to pay for Russian mercenaries and weapons.
With the help of Russian mercenaries Haftar started the assault of Tripoli in 2019. At first GNA position looked hopeless, but a full-scale Turkish intervention completely turned the tide of battle. Now the prospects of Haftar look pretty bleak. Ironically, in January 2020 Putin offered GNA and LNA to work out a political solution, but Haftar left Moscow without signing the armistice. After all, his troops almost took the Libyan capital, and he didn't see any profit from diplomacy. Now it's unclear whether GNA will agree on truce with LNA after Haftar's strategic defeat, and what will be the fate of Russian assets in Libya.
#international #libya
The state of war has two-fold consequences for Russia. On the one hand, Libya is oil-exporting country, and its eviction from the market doesn't sound as smth bad. Also for a short time Libyan case was used by Russian propagandists, who presented it as Russian future after the victory of liberal revolution (2011-2012 became the years of confrontation between liberals and Putin supporters). On the other hand, in a worn-torn Libya potentially lucrative assets can be obtained for low prices, and Russian oil companies, like Tatarstan-based Tatneft, Russian gas-giant Gazprom and the biggest oil company Rosneft used this opportunity. These companies became interested in stabilization of Libya.
In 2017-2018 after long time of meditation Russian elites chose their champion. Khalifa Haftar, the head of Libyan National Army, looked capable of defeating Government of National Accord and uniting the country. Also he was an (ex?)-CIA operative and the UAE/Egypt puppet, but Russian elites demonstrated tolerance to these minor drawbacks. Actually, forging the alliance with the UAE opened interesting opportunities for the Kremlin, because Emirates were ready to pay for Russian mercenaries and weapons.
With the help of Russian mercenaries Haftar started the assault of Tripoli in 2019. At first GNA position looked hopeless, but a full-scale Turkish intervention completely turned the tide of battle. Now the prospects of Haftar look pretty bleak. Ironically, in January 2020 Putin offered GNA and LNA to work out a political solution, but Haftar left Moscow without signing the armistice. After all, his troops almost took the Libyan capital, and he didn't see any profit from diplomacy. Now it's unclear whether GNA will agree on truce with LNA after Haftar's strategic defeat, and what will be the fate of Russian assets in Libya.
#international #libya
Today is the first day without digital GULAG in Moscow. The mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin, closed the pass system, which caused a huge controversy among citizens. Officialy people were forbidden to leave houses for non-essential purposes (buying food in a store 100m from your home and going to essential work), even individual sport activities were persecuted. To distinguish essential workers and others, a system of passes was implemented.
A person had to make an account on Moscow government internet page, give all main info about himself and his employee, and then receive a pass. The system was heavily bugged, it definetely violated any rights on privacy, its work was illegal, and caused concerns about security of the data. I refused to use the passes and was walking on the streets avoiding police patrols, while system of public transport was closed for me. Finaly, this nonsense was abolished.
In Moscow the number of new cases became lower than number of cured people, and city slowly returns back to work. Still, restaraunts, gyms and swimming pools are closed till 23th of June.
#corona
A person had to make an account on Moscow government internet page, give all main info about himself and his employee, and then receive a pass. The system was heavily bugged, it definetely violated any rights on privacy, its work was illegal, and caused concerns about security of the data. I refused to use the passes and was walking on the streets avoiding police patrols, while system of public transport was closed for me. Finaly, this nonsense was abolished.
In Moscow the number of new cases became lower than number of cured people, and city slowly returns back to work. Still, restaraunts, gyms and swimming pools are closed till 23th of June.
#corona
Telegram is unblocked in Russia. Later I will expand this post a bit, rn I'm looking through the details