I didn't watch the adress of Putin and Shoigu, still the partial mobilization is an event you can't miss. The plans are to get 300k people into the army. I'm not a military expert, but this number looks suspiciously small, especially if you plan to take Odessa and Nikolaev. So I won't be surprised if Russian army gets more people than it is claimed now, maybe there will be second, third waves of mobilization.

Now the mobilization related to people who already did military service. Russia has cоmpulsory conscription, people serve one year. There are a lot of ways to avoid military service, but many people join the army after all, so the govt has sufficient manpower pool.

It's an interesting story, and at the same time it becomes a routine. From Ukrainian and Western sources, Russians find out that foreign mercenaries and some Azov soldiers were exchanged for somebody or something. As usual, it is not known what/whom Russia got instead. Saudi Arabia was a mediator of the process.

The governmental media in Russia are silent, the officials say nothing. Previously, some Russian MPs, leaders of the republics, high-ranking military officers claimed that the POWs will be punished for their wrongdoings. Moreover some mercs exchanged today were sentenced to death by the court of DPR.

I've lived in Russia all my life and don't believe local bureaucrats/politicians much, but what I've seen since 24th of February is a parade of events/decisions bordering on treason. Judging by the course of war I don't see the black pill season coming to an end soon.

55 Russian POWs were released, according to @rybar

Btw, that's the first time I see a photo of an exchange from the Russian side

What I don't like in the internet is the generalization of the information, like "Russians do this, Russians do that...". Russia is a big and diverse country, people here have different opinions on many things, including war in Ukraine and mobilization.

Some people flee. The exodus began in February, nobody has exact numbers but we are talking about 100-150k people. It's a lot, but 146mln people live in Russia, so when I hear "look at the Russians, they run away from their country" technically it sounds correct, but in fact it's relatively rich westernized minority who has enough money to live abroad.

Some people go to the rally points themselves. This process started in March, when people realized that the war will be long. Many joined DPR/LPR troops directly, some were directed to the Russian units through military commissariats. Basically all who really wanted to fight are on the frontlines since spring. Once again, hard to say how many volunteers from Russia fight in DPR/LPR, and how many joined (returned to) the Russian army because of the war, but I think the combined number of fighters is two times smaller than the number of fled: 40k in RAF + 10k in DPR/LPR.

The majority is passive, as usual. The Shoigu's words about limits of the mobilization (300k people who served in the army) don't have any legal base. The law on mobilization makes exceptions only for people with poor health conditions, and the number of mobilized is not stated in the president's order. Therefore all males younger than 50 y.o. can recieve a writ from the military commissariat any day now. What will people do with these writs? Some will try to ignore them, at least until the police comes, others will obey.

Three major events in Russia: mobilization, referendums in former Ukraine and Nord Stream sabotage. Today I would like to cover the second topic.

In my opinion referendums should be divided in two groups: the first one includes DPR and LPR, the second is for Kherson and Zaporozhye.

People in DPR and LPR were dying for 8 years because they wanted to join Russia. Ukrainian supporters left Lugansk and Donetsk long time ago, so the results are not surprising: 99% in DPR and 98% in LPR demanded the unification with Russia. I would call these referendums honest. Not legal, but honest. And I congratulate all citizens/residents of DPR and LPR with this symbolic act.

Kherson and Zaporozhye are different.

The pro-Russian attitude of the locals in Zaporozhye was based on economic ties with Russia. Huge industrial plants produced engines and different equipment for the Russian market, thus securing the Soviet-organized cooperation. The management of these plants supported pro-Russian politicians. Since 2014 the trade with Russia was severely limited, now the industrial plants barely operate, the influence of their management dissappeared. Many pro-Russian activists moved to the DPR and Russia, while the others were supressed by the SBU.

The Southern part of Zaporozhye oblast, which is now under Russian control, was deindustrialized even earlier, and people there rely on tourism and other services. Since 2014 the flow of the Russian tourists decreased, and business there oriented on domestic market. Russian troops entered Berdyansk and Melitopol without the fight, but I cannot say the locals were happy about such development. Eventually they got used to the Russian administration, and Ukrainian missile strikes convinced many that reunification with Russia is a lesser evil. Still 90% turnout and 93% support of Russia is a joke, I can't take such numbers seriously.

Kherson was the most orange (colour of pro-western movement in 2004) region in the South of Ukraine. In my opinion it is linked with historical reasons. In imperial times Kherson was the first capital of Novorossiya, but eventually Nikolaev and Odessa replaced it as major Black sea port, while the capital of the governorate moved to Yekaterinoslav (Dnepropetrovsk). In Soviet and post-Soviet times Kherson remained an insignificant backward place, and since all "competitors" of Kherson were pro-Russian, the regional identity, despite the dominance of the Russian language, became more pro-western. The "westernization" trend intensified after 2014, and bureacrats who drew 83% support of Russia are brain-dead if they expect someone would believe in that.

Anyway, Russia took responsibility of these territories. We must somehow organize peaceful life there, provide people with their needs, and, who knows, maybe one day we will get 90% approval in reality.

The black pill season continues.

Yesterday Russia lost a town of Liman in the DPR, also Ukrainians advanced in the North of Kherson oblast. These defeats are caused by the same reason as Kharkov ones: Russia doesn't have troops. Ukraine keeps numerical superiority, in some places it's sixfold. Russian army is small and soldiers are tired without stable rotation. I would say latest defeats were "normal". We gave Ukrainians a fight, they lost a lot of people.

Nevertheless these battles were the last drop for the elite groups, and the interservice rivalry became public. What I see is a coalition of Evgeniy Prigozhin, the commander of Wagner, and Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of Chechen republic, against Russian Ministry of Defense. Two sides blame each other in mistakes, and this struggle looks more dangerous for me than the war itself. The whole week I observe the wave of resignations in Russian MoD, it seems the most notorious generals were removed from the ex-Kharkov front (now it can be called Oskol river front, I guess).

Ukrainians try to use their advantage in the short period until Russian mobilized soldiers will reach the front. They have one month to take Kherson, maybe some cities in the LPR, like Svatovo. I repeat that I'm not a military expert, but for me the most logical place for the next Ukrainian advance is Zaporozhye oblast. Whether Ukrainians succeed is unknown to me, but I hope they won't, mostly due to depleted manpower. Still the situation is dangerous.

Guys, with 99% probability what people see near Belgorod is this. It's definetely not the effects of nuclear weapon, and most probably it's not battle laser.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_pillar?wprov=sfla1

The Nobel Peace Prize never disappoints. Usually it is shared by pro-western no-names and corrupted politicians, both from developing countries. Russians get it for the second year in a row. In 2021 the Prize was given to Dmitry Muratov (and one Thai civil activist), the chief editor of "Novaya Gazeta" newspaper. I consider this newspaper a Ukrainian one, since its ideological stance is clear. This year the Prize was split among three East Slavic countries: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus. I don't know Belarussian and Ukrainian winners (nobody does), but Russian NGO Memorial is rather peculiar institution.

It was founded in 1987, during Perestroika, as a movement devoted to reveal Stalinist repressions. The members of the movement were liberals, so I would call it proto-party. In 90-ies Memorial enjoyed the benevolence of the government, but situation changed when Putin came into power. Since then Memorial became yet another pro-western NGO. Still, I respect it for its original idea, because the crimes of the Soviet regime must be known.

Fun fact: I worked* for Memorial a couple of years ago. From now on call me the Nobel prize winner🎉

*that was a short project about Perestroika, I've never joined Memorial because I don't like libtards, although I needed money back then

The Crimean bridge is damaged due to sabotage act, both road and rail parts. This event limits Russian capabilities to supply the troops in Kherson and in Western part of Russia-controlled Zaporozhye oblast. Taking into account that Antonovsky bridge in Kherson was damaged before, the logistics of the Russian army got too many bottle necks.

Before the bridge Russia and Crimea were connected by ferry boats, and the govt already promised to restore this transport in the nearest future. As for the bridge, it will require months to repair it.

What I expect next? One or two sabotage act on the railroad between Donbass and Kherson, then the Ukrainian assault from Zaporozhye directed to the Azov sea.

Btw, yesterday a Ukrainian UAV tried to attack Russian airfield in Kaluga oblast, but it was shot down. Probably such attacks will intensify.

#crimea

One can ask "what Russia will do?". I stopped asking months ago. A bunch of Russian officials called Ukraine "a terrorist state", which is just a buzzword. Ukraine systematically attacks military, transport, and energy infrastructure. Russia must have done this to Ukraine long time ago. Some targets are obvious: bridges over the Dnepr river which connect East and West of Ukraine, electricity grid of the railroads, etc. Almost nothing has been done in this area, so I don't expect changes even now.

Just as I said. Ukrainians destroyed the railroad station Karan' in Donbass with the missiles. This particular railroad line connected Mariupol and Donetsk.

Meanwhile the traffic on the Crimean bridge relaunched, in part. Currently cars use one lane in reverse mode. As for the rail part, the govt promised to restore the traffic at 20:00 Moscow time. How long does it take to repair the bridge completely is unknown yet.

In Kupyansk the Ukrainians kill pro-Russian civillians. The Ukrainian nationalist Zhorin who posted the video claimed they were the victims of the Russians. He forgot to clean the metadata of the footage, which apparently was made one hour before posting. In September I wrote that such actions would follow Ukrainian victory in Kharkov oblast. I wanted to be mistaken, but I know Ukrainians too well.

The intentions of Ukrainians were manifested in different tg channels with personal data of pro-Russian people. Russians (me included) tried to report them, but mostly it was in vain. Still, we managed to down the channel with Volchansk inhabitants. Since it's close to the Russian border, even one day could have saved someone's life there.

As for people of Balakleya, Kupyansk, Izyum, the border was too far away, evacuation was not provided, so many peaceful civillians faced Ukrainian soldiers and SBU operatives. R.I.P.

Today I've been busy the whole day, finally I read properly what we'd bombed in the morning. The main victim of the recent missile strikes is Ukrainian electric grid, dozens of strikes from Western Ukraine (Lvov, Rovno, Ivano-Frankovsk, Ternopol), Central Ukraine (Kiev, Dnepropetrovsk, Kremenchug etc) and Eastern Ukraine (mostly Kharkov). The targets like power plants (except nuclear ones) are rather vulnerable in comparisson with bridges over the Dnepr, and still their destruction paralyzes both civil and miilitary infrastructure.

It seems the Russian govt made the series of strikes as a response to the Crimean bridge sabotage, at least now I don't expect Russia to bomb Ukraine at such scale every day. Since the SMO commander (this position was established a couple of days ago) Surovikin served in the aviation, maybe we will see gradual intensification, but this process has technical limitations (production of missiles) and, what is more important, it lies in political sphere, where Surovikin is absent.

I was busy this week, sorry. Time to summarize Russian actions in Ukraine.

1. All Ukrainian advances were repelled. The central part of Kherson oblast and Western part of LPR were in critical situation, but Russian troops managed to build normal defense lines there or even counter-attack, taking back some small villages. Unfortunately it costed lives. There is no official info on losses, so I won't speculate on that.

2. The air/missile strikes became daily and more intense on average than before. The Russian aviation set a record on previous Monday, after that daily multiple strikes have become commonplace. In first two-three days we destroyed about 20% of energy generating capacities of Ukraine. Then the law of diminishing marginal utility and Pareto law entered the game. Some military depots, barracks, oil silos were striken, too.

3. Iranian UAVs became a meme. They are cheap and it's hard to detect them, so Russia uses Geran' (originally Shahed) all the time. This got political very fast. The West wants to punish Iran for supplying weapons to Russia, while Israel eventually turning more pro-Ukraine than before.

4. Meanwhile Russia concentrates on production of its own UAVs. The Lancets , which were present in the army in homeopathic doses, now used more often. For now their biggest success is a destruction of two C-300 anti-air systems.

5. Leaders of Russia and Belarus deployed joint group on the border with Ukraine. Ukrainians fear that Belarus will join the war directly, or there will be new campaign in the North, probably in Sumy, Chernigov or Kiev oblasts. In my opinion such risks for Ukraine exist, but now the probablity of smth like that to happen is not very high.
___
The only thing I want to cover separately is mobilization in Russia. To speak softly it showed very huge problems in Russian political/economic/military spheres. I'm going to write about it tomorrow. Stay tuned

Mobilization. People expected it in March or in May. The authorities, including the Putin's spoke Peskov, denied the rumors. All officials claimed that the peacetime army was sufficient to reach all the goals of SMO. The last time Peskov said on 13th of September. Despite evident defeat in Kharkov oblast, the bureaucrats didn't change themselves.

The 22nd of September was a shocking day for many. Before I wrote that the westernized minority began its exodus. Still I can't give proper figures, but we are talking about hundreds of thousands wealthy and educated people who could (can) bring a lot of benefits to the country. Also I wrote about the volunteers. I underestimated their number, although I can't say how many of them joined Russian troops. I would divide volunteers into two parts: the first group are middle-aged people, who were watching state TV and thinking Russia was winning. When they realized the true situation, they came to the military commissariats. The second group are pragmatic people, who wanted to choose the unit by themselves and got some time for preparations. Typical enthusiasts are also present, but not in big numbers.

What could possibly gone wrong with mobilization? The short answer is everything, it's better to talk about three problems.

1. Manpower pool. The minister of defense said that the Army will get 300k reservists with military, and even war experience. I don't think anyone would believe in that, but the descrepancy between these words and real situation surpassed the expectations of general population right on the first day. People who never served, ill people, old people — military commissariats gathered everyone. It seems they had only plans with numbers no regard for quality of the future soldiers. In some regions the course of events turned qrotesque: the whole country was watching how buses full of drunkards carried them to the polygons.

2. Equipment issue. The lucky ones who got to the polygons without getting hurt in drunken brawls, found out that the second army in the world has some assault rifles, outdated body armour and that was it. Radios? Med kits? Sleeping bags? Not this time. One can say in every army of the world people buy some stuff by themselves. Here are 2 problems with this take: еxpertise and money. Professional soldiers know what to buy, while many mobilized people don't. Also buying equipment and spending even 1000$ may be a hard toll on the families, because Russia is a poor country. The cherry on the cake: some officers tried to confiscate the bought equipment because it considered as violation of army regulations. Most of the time the mobilized resisted furiously and kept their belongings with them.

3. Training. It was promised that the mobilized would have proper one or two months of training. In fact people could be sent to the frontlines within two weeks. The quality of training varied. In some places the mobilized were doing nothing until the departure to Ukraine. Others went through proper drills.

Is it all bad? As I often say, Russia is a big country. The regions near Ukraine like Bryansk and Belgorod oblasts have motivated people but face problems with proper equipment. The Far East looks, in part, as their antipode. Some regions, like Tatarstan, Leningrad oblast, Sverdlovsk oblast and many others provided extensive training to the mobilized, while in some regions people just were sleeping in the barracks. Since the information on mobilization is secret, I can't get the full picture. Within a couple of months it will be clear whether the mobilized will save the day or not.

Kherson.

A strange story happens with this city. Recently Surovikin, the new commander of Russian troops in Ukraine, stated that the situation near Kherson is very hard, and difficult decisions can be made. A bit later the Russian govt declared the evacuation of Kherson inhabitants, and more broadly, the people who live in the Western bank of the Dnepr river. The civillians from the East bank are banned from entering the area.

The refugees have an opportunity to get new houses/flats in Russia proper (let me call it so). They obtain a certificate which can be exchanged on the real estate of certain value. The number of refugees in unknown yet. Before the war the population of Kherson was about 280k. Many people left when the city when Russian troops established control over it, although some returned later.

Is there a possibility of Kherson captured by Ukrainians? Yes, it seems. At least Russian state media and pro-Russian tg channels don't rule out this possibility. If it happens, the defeat near Kharkov will turn to a trifle. The loss of the city would mean the loss of the bridgehead on the West bank of the Dnepr. To make it worse, it's high bank, so Ukrainians would get an advantage over the Russian troops.

Some experts, including Ukrainian ones, claim all the rumors about Russian retreat is one big psyop. I hope it's true, but it sounds strange. The Ukrainians have access to satellite data, also they have some spies in Kherson for sure. It's nearly impossible to confuse them in such matters, while ordinary Russians don't know whom to believe anymore.

Now the city is under Russian control, the frontlines are 50km away.

#kherson