The offensive of Ukrainian forces continues. Judging by the videos of burning tanks, wounded foot soldiers, lines of ambulance cars in Nikolaev, obituaries in regional newspapers I can carefully claim that Ukrainians have problems and soon they will be stopped. They advanced for couple of kilometers more, maybe 7-8km in total since Monday.
Meanwhile today Ukrainians organized landing near Energodar, where Zaporozhskaya nuclear plant located. At first I could not believe in this, because the attack looked suicidal from the start. According to Russian MoD, Ukrainians lost 60 people in the first wave and only Dnepr river knows how many drowned in the second one. Ukrainians deny the landing took place at all. Now there is a video of two Russian helicopters flying over Energodar and a photo of a hit barge (suspiciosly without a tug boat). I hope to see more information on that landing in the nearest future.
As for IAEA mission, despite Ukrainian attack it reached Energodar to inspect ZNPP. Russian officials hope that presence of the mission will prevent the Ukrainians to shell the plant. Well, maybe it will work. I won't be surprised of Ukrainians kill some IAEA delegates and accuse Russia of it.
#war_in_ukraine
Meanwhile today Ukrainians organized landing near Energodar, where Zaporozhskaya nuclear plant located. At first I could not believe in this, because the attack looked suicidal from the start. According to Russian MoD, Ukrainians lost 60 people in the first wave and only Dnepr river knows how many drowned in the second one. Ukrainians deny the landing took place at all. Now there is a video of two Russian helicopters flying over Energodar and a photo of a hit barge (suspiciosly without a tug boat). I hope to see more information on that landing in the nearest future.
As for IAEA mission, despite Ukrainian attack it reached Energodar to inspect ZNPP. Russian officials hope that presence of the mission will prevent the Ukrainians to shell the plant. Well, maybe it will work. I won't be surprised of Ukrainians kill some IAEA delegates and accuse Russia of it.
#war_in_ukraine
I think everybody saw the frustration of Europeans concerning the prices of housing services. Let's talk about bills in Russia instead, maybe you'll compare them with yours.
My Moscow flat is in typical Soviet building *molchat doma song plays on the background*. It's a bit less than 60m², which is also a typical size. How much do I pay for that monthly? Here is the list, with 1$=62₽.
Electricity 5-6$ (300-400₽)
Phone+Internet 5$ (315₽)
Gas 1,5$-2,5$ (7₽ for 1m³ 100-200₽)
Cold water 5$-6,5$ (45₽ for 1m³ 300-400₽)
Hot water 10$-16$ (223₽ for 1m³ 600-1000₽)
Sewers 3$-6,5$ (200-400₽)
Central heating 38$ (2400₽)
Overhaul 19$ (1200₽)
Garbage removal 32$ (2000₽)
Tv-set 4$ (270₽)
In (maximum) total 135$
Is it much? According to Russian Statistics Service, average salary in Moscow is 111092₽, which is 1791$. Taking into account high inequality levels, it's better to use median salary, 62500₽=1008$.
Does it differ from other regions of Russia? Yes, usually the bills are smaller in other regions, but salaries are lower there, too. Important exceptions are polar and some Far Eastern regions, where housing services are extremely expensive.
What is overhaul? We pay every month for future repair of the building. The size of the bill depends on the square of the flat. That's relatively new line in the bills, before such works were provided by the state automatically.
What about taxes? There is annual property tax, let's say 50$ for such flat.
In the end I should say there are subsidies for poor and elder owners, usually they cover 50% of the bill.
So, what do you think? Is it cool to live in Moscow?
#lifestyle
My Moscow flat is in typical Soviet building *molchat doma song plays on the background*. It's a bit less than 60m², which is also a typical size. How much do I pay for that monthly? Here is the list, with 1$=62₽.
Electricity 5-6$ (300-400₽)
Phone+Internet 5$ (315₽)
Gas 1,5$-2,5$ (7₽ for 1m³ 100-200₽)
Cold water 5$-6,5$ (45₽ for 1m³ 300-400₽)
Hot water 10$-16$ (223₽ for 1m³ 600-1000₽)
Sewers 3$-6,5$ (200-400₽)
Central heating 38$ (2400₽)
Overhaul 19$ (1200₽)
Garbage removal 32$ (2000₽)
Tv-set 4$ (270₽)
In (maximum) total 135$
Is it much? According to Russian Statistics Service, average salary in Moscow is 111092₽, which is 1791$. Taking into account high inequality levels, it's better to use median salary, 62500₽=1008$.
Does it differ from other regions of Russia? Yes, usually the bills are smaller in other regions, but salaries are lower there, too. Important exceptions are polar and some Far Eastern regions, where housing services are extremely expensive.
What is overhaul? We pay every month for future repair of the building. The size of the bill depends on the square of the flat. That's relatively new line in the bills, before such works were provided by the state automatically.
What about taxes? There is annual property tax, let's say 50$ for such flat.
In the end I should say there are subsidies for poor and elder owners, usually they cover 50% of the bill.
So, what do you think? Is it cool to live in Moscow?
#lifestyle
The Ukrainians continue their offensive in Kherson oblast, where they took two-three villages in the northern part of the region. Meanwhile their attacks in the south failed.
Anyway, now Russians have bigger problem: new Ukrainian offensive in Kharkov oblast, which started yesterday. The main target of Ukrainians is the city of Balakleya with the biggest military warehouses in Ukraine. Russian garisson is in tactical encirclement there, which means the supply lines are under Ukrainian artillery shells. City of Izyum is also under attack. There is a chance for Ukrainians to enter the operational space, maybe for the first time in this war.
Since two offensives have a lot in common, I think we can talk about certain patterns here.
1. We overslept both attacks. It's extremely surprising, because many experts predicted problems near Kharkov month ago. Moreover, Russians didn't use reserves in Kherson, probably expecting attacks somewhere else.
2. Ukrainians target weak units, which consist of mobilized men from DPR/LPR. There is huge debate how weak they are now, because they have 6 months war experience already and their equipment also became better.
3. In first wave of offensive Ukrainians use their mobilized soldiers. They suffer heavy losses, but Russians spend the ammo on them and reveal firing positions. After that professional Ukrainian units come in the second wave.
The main difference between two operations lies rather in landscape than smth human-related. In steppes between Kherson and Nikolaev it is easier to evaporate attacking forces, while forests in Kharkov oblast give them cover. I believe within a couple of days it will become clear who wins what this time.
#war_in_ukraine
Anyway, now Russians have bigger problem: new Ukrainian offensive in Kharkov oblast, which started yesterday. The main target of Ukrainians is the city of Balakleya with the biggest military warehouses in Ukraine. Russian garisson is in tactical encirclement there, which means the supply lines are under Ukrainian artillery shells. City of Izyum is also under attack. There is a chance for Ukrainians to enter the operational space, maybe for the first time in this war.
Since two offensives have a lot in common, I think we can talk about certain patterns here.
1. We overslept both attacks. It's extremely surprising, because many experts predicted problems near Kharkov month ago. Moreover, Russians didn't use reserves in Kherson, probably expecting attacks somewhere else.
2. Ukrainians target weak units, which consist of mobilized men from DPR/LPR. There is huge debate how weak they are now, because they have 6 months war experience already and their equipment also became better.
3. In first wave of offensive Ukrainians use their mobilized soldiers. They suffer heavy losses, but Russians spend the ammo on them and reveal firing positions. After that professional Ukrainian units come in the second wave.
The main difference between two operations lies rather in landscape than smth human-related. In steppes between Kherson and Nikolaev it is easier to evaporate attacking forces, while forests in Kharkov oblast give them cover. I believe within a couple of days it will become clear who wins what this time.
#war_in_ukraine
I wanted to write smth about Russian-British relations, but it's not the right time. We lost Kupyansk, in my opinion the most pro-Russian city in Kharkov oblast, there many people will be executed if they stay.
Just now I found out we retreated from Izyum, the biggest city in Kharkov oblast we took. The fighting lasted for months there, and we lost it overnight. Thus Ukrainians have control over all Kharkov oblast except small buffer zones near the state border.
I am a bit busy now so can't observe things properly, still the situation looks like complete victory of Ukrainian forces.
#war_in_ukraine
Just now I found out we retreated from Izyum, the biggest city in Kharkov oblast we took. The fighting lasted for months there, and we lost it overnight. Thus Ukrainians have control over all Kharkov oblast except small buffer zones near the state border.
I am a bit busy now so can't observe things properly, still the situation looks like complete victory of Ukrainian forces.
#war_in_ukraine
Before the discussion of the recent defeat near Kharkov, let's speak about Russia and the war in general.
In my opinion the reasons of Russian failures lie in political sphere. Russia is an authoritarian state. It has many features, but what is important now is lack of competition and absence of properly working system of checks and balances. It's almost impossible to punish a politician who made wrong decision by choosing someone else on elections. Ofcourse for president it's simply not possible at all. There is no such thing as parliamentary investigation, even de-jure. Journalists can't write freely about the events. Here I can give an example of Ivan Safronov, who wrote some analytics for foreigners based on open sources and got 24 years of imprisonment for espionage.
Unfortunately, authoritarianism itself is not the only problem. What we observe is the discouraging(?) authoritarianism. That is the Russian govt shows you in many ways that it doesn't need your help. You can't organize a rally for support of the Russian troops. The govt can, it does sometimes and gather administratively dependent workers (we call them budgetnik, "a budget man", like teachers in state schools, workers in the military-industrial complex etc.). If you want to send some dual-purpose stuff for soldiers in Ukraine nobody will guarantee you'll do it without paying bribes to customs officers. If you are active, even without challeging the regime, all bureaucrats and law enforcers consider you suspicious and potentially dangerous.
The next problem is ideology, or rather its absence. In Russia it's very vague set of ideas, which are not stated in any law. Moreover, the constitution directly bans the foundation of state ideology. Present-day set of ideas looks more or less this way:
1. We respect Orthodox Christianity and other religions present in Russia
2. We don't like new leftists with gender studies, LGBT promotion etc.
3. We deny any forms of nationalism and nazism
4. We promote cultural diversity, de-facto multiculturalism
How does it work? In short, it works bad. First of all, most of the Russians are secular westernized people, who don't care about LGBT issues, don't follow ideas of traditionalism, and not so many people consider Christianity as smth very important. You may not like it, but the myth of "based White Christian Russia" doesn't reflect the reality. Therefore soviet-style multiculturalism + declarative traditionalism + discouraging authoritarianism lead to the empowerment of the traditionalist ethnic minorities and passivity of ethnic Russians, who comprise majority of the population.
Later I'm going to write how these conditions influence(d) Russian campaign in Ukraine.
In my opinion the reasons of Russian failures lie in political sphere. Russia is an authoritarian state. It has many features, but what is important now is lack of competition and absence of properly working system of checks and balances. It's almost impossible to punish a politician who made wrong decision by choosing someone else on elections. Ofcourse for president it's simply not possible at all. There is no such thing as parliamentary investigation, even de-jure. Journalists can't write freely about the events. Here I can give an example of Ivan Safronov, who wrote some analytics for foreigners based on open sources and got 24 years of imprisonment for espionage.
Unfortunately, authoritarianism itself is not the only problem. What we observe is the discouraging(?) authoritarianism. That is the Russian govt shows you in many ways that it doesn't need your help. You can't organize a rally for support of the Russian troops. The govt can, it does sometimes and gather administratively dependent workers (we call them budgetnik, "a budget man", like teachers in state schools, workers in the military-industrial complex etc.). If you want to send some dual-purpose stuff for soldiers in Ukraine nobody will guarantee you'll do it without paying bribes to customs officers. If you are active, even without challeging the regime, all bureaucrats and law enforcers consider you suspicious and potentially dangerous.
The next problem is ideology, or rather its absence. In Russia it's very vague set of ideas, which are not stated in any law. Moreover, the constitution directly bans the foundation of state ideology. Present-day set of ideas looks more or less this way:
1. We respect Orthodox Christianity and other religions present in Russia
2. We don't like new leftists with gender studies, LGBT promotion etc.
3. We deny any forms of nationalism and nazism
4. We promote cultural diversity, de-facto multiculturalism
How does it work? In short, it works bad. First of all, most of the Russians are secular westernized people, who don't care about LGBT issues, don't follow ideas of traditionalism, and not so many people consider Christianity as smth very important. You may not like it, but the myth of "based White Christian Russia" doesn't reflect the reality. Therefore soviet-style multiculturalism + declarative traditionalism + discouraging authoritarianism lead to the empowerment of the traditionalist ethnic minorities and passivity of ethnic Russians, who comprise majority of the population.
Later I'm going to write how these conditions influence(d) Russian campaign in Ukraine.
👍4
Today the State Duma discusses the laws about mobilization, military service, martial law and other war-related stuff.
At the same time LPR, DPR, Kherson oblast and Zaporozhye oblast asked to join Russia. The referendums in DPR and LPR will be held 23-27 of September, according to the republican leaders.
What does it mean? After the defeat near Kharkov it became clear that 200k Russian soldiers can't win this war. It's hard to evaluate the size of Ukrainian army, but it was 200k before the mobilization. In May Zelensky claimed that the Ukrainian army reached 700k. Since it's impossible to lead "productive" offensive operations without numerical superiority, the Russians stucked in urban landscapes or Ukrainian defensive lines.
The only solution to that problem is Russian mobilization, limited or full. It's not an easy step for the Russian officials and for the Russian public. The first are not very competent, while mobilization requires organizing skills, not saying that in case smth goes wrong the responsible will be punished according to the war time laws. As for ordinary Russians, basically nobody wants to die, simple as that.
If DPR/LPR is considered Russian territory, then the govt can send conscripts there. I believe we are talking about 150-200k soldiers, although without proper skills and experience. For now that's the immediate outcome I see. If there are more, I'll write about them later.
#war_in_ukraine #legislation
At the same time LPR, DPR, Kherson oblast and Zaporozhye oblast asked to join Russia. The referendums in DPR and LPR will be held 23-27 of September, according to the republican leaders.
What does it mean? After the defeat near Kharkov it became clear that 200k Russian soldiers can't win this war. It's hard to evaluate the size of Ukrainian army, but it was 200k before the mobilization. In May Zelensky claimed that the Ukrainian army reached 700k. Since it's impossible to lead "productive" offensive operations without numerical superiority, the Russians stucked in urban landscapes or Ukrainian defensive lines.
The only solution to that problem is Russian mobilization, limited or full. It's not an easy step for the Russian officials and for the Russian public. The first are not very competent, while mobilization requires organizing skills, not saying that in case smth goes wrong the responsible will be punished according to the war time laws. As for ordinary Russians, basically nobody wants to die, simple as that.
If DPR/LPR is considered Russian territory, then the govt can send conscripts there. I believe we are talking about 150-200k soldiers, although without proper skills and experience. For now that's the immediate outcome I see. If there are more, I'll write about them later.
#war_in_ukraine #legislation
🤔2👍1
I didn't watch the adress of Putin and Shoigu, still the partial mobilization is an event you can't miss. The plans are to get 300k people into the army. I'm not a military expert, but this number looks suspiciously small, especially if you plan to take Odessa and Nikolaev. So I won't be surprised if Russian army gets more people than it is claimed now, maybe there will be second, third waves of mobilization.
Now the mobilization related to people who already did military service. Russia has cоmpulsory conscription, people serve one year. There are a lot of ways to avoid military service, but many people join the army after all, so the govt has sufficient manpower pool.
Now the mobilization related to people who already did military service. Russia has cоmpulsory conscription, people serve one year. There are a lot of ways to avoid military service, but many people join the army after all, so the govt has sufficient manpower pool.
It's an interesting story, and at the same time it becomes a routine. From Ukrainian and Western sources, Russians find out that foreign mercenaries and some Azov soldiers were exchanged for somebody or something. As usual, it is not known what/whom Russia got instead. Saudi Arabia was a mediator of the process.
The governmental media in Russia are silent, the officials say nothing. Previously, some Russian MPs, leaders of the republics, high-ranking military officers claimed that the POWs will be punished for their wrongdoings. Moreover some mercs exchanged today were sentenced to death by the court of DPR.
I've lived in Russia all my life and don't believe local bureaucrats/politicians much, but what I've seen since 24th of February is a parade of events/decisions bordering on treason. Judging by the course of war I don't see the black pill season coming to an end soon.
The governmental media in Russia are silent, the officials say nothing. Previously, some Russian MPs, leaders of the republics, high-ranking military officers claimed that the POWs will be punished for their wrongdoings. Moreover some mercs exchanged today were sentenced to death by the court of DPR.
I've lived in Russia all my life and don't believe local bureaucrats/politicians much, but what I've seen since 24th of February is a parade of events/decisions bordering on treason. Judging by the course of war I don't see the black pill season coming to an end soon.
55 Russian POWs were released, according to @rybar
Btw, that's the first time I see a photo of an exchange from the Russian side
Btw, that's the first time I see a photo of an exchange from the Russian side
What I don't like in the internet is the generalization of the information, like "Russians do this, Russians do that...". Russia is a big and diverse country, people here have different opinions on many things, including war in Ukraine and mobilization.
Some people flee. The exodus began in February, nobody has exact numbers but we are talking about 100-150k people. It's a lot, but 146mln people live in Russia, so when I hear "look at the Russians, they run away from their country" technically it sounds correct, but in fact it's relatively rich westernized minority who has enough money to live abroad.
Some people go to the rally points themselves. This process started in March, when people realized that the war will be long. Many joined DPR/LPR troops directly, some were directed to the Russian units through military commissariats. Basically all who really wanted to fight are on the frontlines since spring. Once again, hard to say how many volunteers from Russia fight in DPR/LPR, and how many joined (returned to) the Russian army because of the war, but I think the combined number of fighters is two times smaller than the number of fled: 40k in RAF + 10k in DPR/LPR.
The majority is passive, as usual. The Shoigu's words about limits of the mobilization (300k people who served in the army) don't have any legal base. The law on mobilization makes exceptions only for people with poor health conditions, and the number of mobilized is not stated in the president's order. Therefore all males younger than 50 y.o. can recieve a writ from the military commissariat any day now. What will people do with these writs? Some will try to ignore them, at least until the police comes, others will obey.
Some people flee. The exodus began in February, nobody has exact numbers but we are talking about 100-150k people. It's a lot, but 146mln people live in Russia, so when I hear "look at the Russians, they run away from their country" technically it sounds correct, but in fact it's relatively rich westernized minority who has enough money to live abroad.
Some people go to the rally points themselves. This process started in March, when people realized that the war will be long. Many joined DPR/LPR troops directly, some were directed to the Russian units through military commissariats. Basically all who really wanted to fight are on the frontlines since spring. Once again, hard to say how many volunteers from Russia fight in DPR/LPR, and how many joined (returned to) the Russian army because of the war, but I think the combined number of fighters is two times smaller than the number of fled: 40k in RAF + 10k in DPR/LPR.
The majority is passive, as usual. The Shoigu's words about limits of the mobilization (300k people who served in the army) don't have any legal base. The law on mobilization makes exceptions only for people with poor health conditions, and the number of mobilized is not stated in the president's order. Therefore all males younger than 50 y.o. can recieve a writ from the military commissariat any day now. What will people do with these writs? Some will try to ignore them, at least until the police comes, others will obey.
Three major events in Russia: mobilization, referendums in former Ukraine and Nord Stream sabotage. Today I would like to cover the second topic.
In my opinion referendums should be divided in two groups: the first one includes DPR and LPR, the second is for Kherson and Zaporozhye.
People in DPR and LPR were dying for 8 years because they wanted to join Russia. Ukrainian supporters left Lugansk and Donetsk long time ago, so the results are not surprising: 99% in DPR and 98% in LPR demanded the unification with Russia. I would call these referendums honest. Not legal, but honest. And I congratulate all citizens/residents of DPR and LPR with this symbolic act.
Kherson and Zaporozhye are different.
The pro-Russian attitude of the locals in Zaporozhye was based on economic ties with Russia. Huge industrial plants produced engines and different equipment for the Russian market, thus securing the Soviet-organized cooperation. The management of these plants supported pro-Russian politicians. Since 2014 the trade with Russia was severely limited, now the industrial plants barely operate, the influence of their management dissappeared. Many pro-Russian activists moved to the DPR and Russia, while the others were supressed by the SBU.
The Southern part of Zaporozhye oblast, which is now under Russian control, was deindustrialized even earlier, and people there rely on tourism and other services. Since 2014 the flow of the Russian tourists decreased, and business there oriented on domestic market. Russian troops entered Berdyansk and Melitopol without the fight, but I cannot say the locals were happy about such development. Eventually they got used to the Russian administration, and Ukrainian missile strikes convinced many that reunification with Russia is a lesser evil. Still 90% turnout and 93% support of Russia is a joke, I can't take such numbers seriously.
Kherson was the most orange (colour of pro-western movement in 2004) region in the South of Ukraine. In my opinion it is linked with historical reasons. In imperial times Kherson was the first capital of Novorossiya, but eventually Nikolaev and Odessa replaced it as major Black sea port, while the capital of the governorate moved to Yekaterinoslav (Dnepropetrovsk). In Soviet and post-Soviet times Kherson remained an insignificant backward place, and since all "competitors" of Kherson were pro-Russian, the regional identity, despite the dominance of the Russian language, became more pro-western. The "westernization" trend intensified after 2014, and bureacrats who drew 83% support of Russia are brain-dead if they expect someone would believe in that.
Anyway, Russia took responsibility of these territories. We must somehow organize peaceful life there, provide people with their needs, and, who knows, maybe one day we will get 90% approval in reality.
In my opinion referendums should be divided in two groups: the first one includes DPR and LPR, the second is for Kherson and Zaporozhye.
People in DPR and LPR were dying for 8 years because they wanted to join Russia. Ukrainian supporters left Lugansk and Donetsk long time ago, so the results are not surprising: 99% in DPR and 98% in LPR demanded the unification with Russia. I would call these referendums honest. Not legal, but honest. And I congratulate all citizens/residents of DPR and LPR with this symbolic act.
Kherson and Zaporozhye are different.
The pro-Russian attitude of the locals in Zaporozhye was based on economic ties with Russia. Huge industrial plants produced engines and different equipment for the Russian market, thus securing the Soviet-organized cooperation. The management of these plants supported pro-Russian politicians. Since 2014 the trade with Russia was severely limited, now the industrial plants barely operate, the influence of their management dissappeared. Many pro-Russian activists moved to the DPR and Russia, while the others were supressed by the SBU.
The Southern part of Zaporozhye oblast, which is now under Russian control, was deindustrialized even earlier, and people there rely on tourism and other services. Since 2014 the flow of the Russian tourists decreased, and business there oriented on domestic market. Russian troops entered Berdyansk and Melitopol without the fight, but I cannot say the locals were happy about such development. Eventually they got used to the Russian administration, and Ukrainian missile strikes convinced many that reunification with Russia is a lesser evil. Still 90% turnout and 93% support of Russia is a joke, I can't take such numbers seriously.
Kherson was the most orange (colour of pro-western movement in 2004) region in the South of Ukraine. In my opinion it is linked with historical reasons. In imperial times Kherson was the first capital of Novorossiya, but eventually Nikolaev and Odessa replaced it as major Black sea port, while the capital of the governorate moved to Yekaterinoslav (Dnepropetrovsk). In Soviet and post-Soviet times Kherson remained an insignificant backward place, and since all "competitors" of Kherson were pro-Russian, the regional identity, despite the dominance of the Russian language, became more pro-western. The "westernization" trend intensified after 2014, and bureacrats who drew 83% support of Russia are brain-dead if they expect someone would believe in that.
Anyway, Russia took responsibility of these territories. We must somehow organize peaceful life there, provide people with their needs, and, who knows, maybe one day we will get 90% approval in reality.
👍2
The black pill season continues.
Yesterday Russia lost a town of Liman in the DPR, also Ukrainians advanced in the North of Kherson oblast. These defeats are caused by the same reason as Kharkov ones: Russia doesn't have troops. Ukraine keeps numerical superiority, in some places it's sixfold. Russian army is small and soldiers are tired without stable rotation. I would say latest defeats were "normal". We gave Ukrainians a fight, they lost a lot of people.
Nevertheless these battles were the last drop for the elite groups, and the interservice rivalry became public. What I see is a coalition of Evgeniy Prigozhin, the commander of Wagner, and Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of Chechen republic, against Russian Ministry of Defense. Two sides blame each other in mistakes, and this struggle looks more dangerous for me than the war itself. The whole week I observe the wave of resignations in Russian MoD, it seems the most notorious generals were removed from the ex-Kharkov front (now it can be called Oskol river front, I guess).
Ukrainians try to use their advantage in the short period until Russian mobilized soldiers will reach the front. They have one month to take Kherson, maybe some cities in the LPR, like Svatovo. I repeat that I'm not a military expert, but for me the most logical place for the next Ukrainian advance is Zaporozhye oblast. Whether Ukrainians succeed is unknown to me, but I hope they won't, mostly due to depleted manpower. Still the situation is dangerous.
Yesterday Russia lost a town of Liman in the DPR, also Ukrainians advanced in the North of Kherson oblast. These defeats are caused by the same reason as Kharkov ones: Russia doesn't have troops. Ukraine keeps numerical superiority, in some places it's sixfold. Russian army is small and soldiers are tired without stable rotation. I would say latest defeats were "normal". We gave Ukrainians a fight, they lost a lot of people.
Nevertheless these battles were the last drop for the elite groups, and the interservice rivalry became public. What I see is a coalition of Evgeniy Prigozhin, the commander of Wagner, and Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of Chechen republic, against Russian Ministry of Defense. Two sides blame each other in mistakes, and this struggle looks more dangerous for me than the war itself. The whole week I observe the wave of resignations in Russian MoD, it seems the most notorious generals were removed from the ex-Kharkov front (now it can be called Oskol river front, I guess).
Ukrainians try to use their advantage in the short period until Russian mobilized soldiers will reach the front. They have one month to take Kherson, maybe some cities in the LPR, like Svatovo. I repeat that I'm not a military expert, but for me the most logical place for the next Ukrainian advance is Zaporozhye oblast. Whether Ukrainians succeed is unknown to me, but I hope they won't, mostly due to depleted manpower. Still the situation is dangerous.
Guys, with 99% probability what people see near Belgorod is this. It's definetely not the effects of nuclear weapon, and most probably it's not battle laser.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_pillar?wprov=sfla1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_pillar?wprov=sfla1
The Nobel Peace Prize never disappoints. Usually it is shared by pro-western no-names and corrupted politicians, both from developing countries. Russians get it for the second year in a row. In 2021 the Prize was given to Dmitry Muratov (and one Thai civil activist), the chief editor of "Novaya Gazeta" newspaper. I consider this newspaper a Ukrainian one, since its ideological stance is clear. This year the Prize was split among three East Slavic countries: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus. I don't know Belarussian and Ukrainian winners (nobody does), but Russian NGO Memorial is rather peculiar institution.
It was founded in 1987, during Perestroika, as a movement devoted to reveal Stalinist repressions. The members of the movement were liberals, so I would call it proto-party. In 90-ies Memorial enjoyed the benevolence of the government, but situation changed when Putin came into power. Since then Memorial became yet another pro-western NGO. Still, I respect it for its original idea, because the crimes of the Soviet regime must be known.
It was founded in 1987, during Perestroika, as a movement devoted to reveal Stalinist repressions. The members of the movement were liberals, so I would call it proto-party. In 90-ies Memorial enjoyed the benevolence of the government, but situation changed when Putin came into power. Since then Memorial became yet another pro-western NGO. Still, I respect it for its original idea, because the crimes of the Soviet regime must be known.
The Crimean bridge is damaged due to sabotage act, both road and rail parts. This event limits Russian capabilities to supply the troops in Kherson and in Western part of Russia-controlled Zaporozhye oblast. Taking into account that Antonovsky bridge in Kherson was damaged before, the logistics of the Russian army got too many bottle necks.
Before the bridge Russia and Crimea were connected by ferry boats, and the govt already promised to restore this transport in the nearest future. As for the bridge, it will require months to repair it.
What I expect next? One or two sabotage act on the railroad between Donbass and Kherson, then the Ukrainian assault from Zaporozhye directed to the Azov sea.
Btw, yesterday a Ukrainian UAV tried to attack Russian airfield in Kaluga oblast, but it was shot down. Probably such attacks will intensify.
#crimea
Before the bridge Russia and Crimea were connected by ferry boats, and the govt already promised to restore this transport in the nearest future. As for the bridge, it will require months to repair it.
What I expect next? One or two sabotage act on the railroad between Donbass and Kherson, then the Ukrainian assault from Zaporozhye directed to the Azov sea.
Btw, yesterday a Ukrainian UAV tried to attack Russian airfield in Kaluga oblast, but it was shot down. Probably such attacks will intensify.
#crimea
One can ask "what Russia will do?". I stopped asking months ago. A bunch of Russian officials called Ukraine "a terrorist state", which is just a buzzword. Ukraine systematically attacks military, transport, and energy infrastructure. Russia must have done this to Ukraine long time ago. Some targets are obvious: bridges over the Dnepr river which connect East and West of Ukraine, electricity grid of the railroads, etc. Almost nothing has been done in this area, so I don't expect changes even now.
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Just as I said. Ukrainians destroyed the railroad station Karan' in Donbass with the missiles. This particular railroad line connected Mariupol and Donetsk.
Meanwhile the traffic on the Crimean bridge relaunched, in part. Currently cars use one lane in reverse mode. As for the rail part, the govt promised to restore the traffic at 20:00 Moscow time. How long does it take to repair the bridge completely is unknown yet.
Meanwhile the traffic on the Crimean bridge relaunched, in part. Currently cars use one lane in reverse mode. As for the rail part, the govt promised to restore the traffic at 20:00 Moscow time. How long does it take to repair the bridge completely is unknown yet.