First, I don't like Dugin, so I'm kinda biased here.
He is a philosopher, who took a lot from so-called the New Right (Nouvelle Droite). That is antiglobalism, traditionalism, support of spirituality etc. Dugin entered Nazbol party with Limonov and others. He mixed right wing traditionalism and leftist welfare + the USSR nostalgia. Later his ideas developed as de-facto anti-nationalist. His most important contribution to theory was the new iteration of Eurasionism (at first it was the idea of White Russians in immigration). In short this idea was "we must unite with Iran, China, India, Middle Asia against the West (Atlantists). While Russian nationalists believe Ukraine is a problem per se, Dugin thinks that it's the West to blame for the conflict.
It is popular opinion in the West that Dugin was or is influential in Russian politics, he advised Putin and so on. That's wrong perception, because Russian elites are too cynical and soulles to listen to idealists, whether they are communists, nationalists, liberals or someone else. Dugin has never hold any govt position, his views in a whole are marginal. To say more, in previous decade he lost his professor seat at MSU after too "radical" expression of Novorossiya support and almost completely dissappeared from TV, except Tsargrad channel which is not very popular.
Why the Westerners know him? Well, Dugin fits into stereotypes about Russia. A man with beard with ultraconservative views, "advisor of Putin". For me it's yet another incarnation of "Rasputin sex machine", whose image is also very famous in the West.
What I don't like in Dugin
Basically I don't like satanists who convert to Christianity (he was a big fan of Aleister Crowley in young years) and start teaching me how to live. All his views in pure form are about ethnic Russians who must accept massive migration from Muslim countries, live in poor conditions and fight the West. Not interested, sorry.
What I like in Dugin
He is a good scholar. His lectures on international relations and philosophy are well-written and helped me a lot more than once. Sometimes he can write good stuff, knows a lot of languages, also he arranged some very interesting postmodern perfomances, so I may call him a talented director, too. Also I respect people who are open for discussion. Dugin constantly argues with right/left liberals, communists and others. He is very social, it's not very hard to establish connection with him. I met him in person only once, but I know some people who were partying at his place. The last but not least, Dugin is a meme fuel. You can't imagine how many funny stories are about him, and how many funny speeches he made.
I've never expected Dugin to become a tragic figure, a father, who lost his child in a struggle against the western puppets. Maybe we will witness a new Dugin soon.
He is a philosopher, who took a lot from so-called the New Right (Nouvelle Droite). That is antiglobalism, traditionalism, support of spirituality etc. Dugin entered Nazbol party with Limonov and others. He mixed right wing traditionalism and leftist welfare + the USSR nostalgia. Later his ideas developed as de-facto anti-nationalist. His most important contribution to theory was the new iteration of Eurasionism (at first it was the idea of White Russians in immigration). In short this idea was "we must unite with Iran, China, India, Middle Asia against the West (Atlantists). While Russian nationalists believe Ukraine is a problem per se, Dugin thinks that it's the West to blame for the conflict.
It is popular opinion in the West that Dugin was or is influential in Russian politics, he advised Putin and so on. That's wrong perception, because Russian elites are too cynical and soulles to listen to idealists, whether they are communists, nationalists, liberals or someone else. Dugin has never hold any govt position, his views in a whole are marginal. To say more, in previous decade he lost his professor seat at MSU after too "radical" expression of Novorossiya support and almost completely dissappeared from TV, except Tsargrad channel which is not very popular.
Why the Westerners know him? Well, Dugin fits into stereotypes about Russia. A man with beard with ultraconservative views, "advisor of Putin". For me it's yet another incarnation of "Rasputin sex machine", whose image is also very famous in the West.
What I don't like in Dugin
Basically I don't like satanists who convert to Christianity (he was a big fan of Aleister Crowley in young years) and start teaching me how to live. All his views in pure form are about ethnic Russians who must accept massive migration from Muslim countries, live in poor conditions and fight the West. Not interested, sorry.
What I like in Dugin
He is a good scholar. His lectures on international relations and philosophy are well-written and helped me a lot more than once. Sometimes he can write good stuff, knows a lot of languages, also he arranged some very interesting postmodern perfomances, so I may call him a talented director, too. Also I respect people who are open for discussion. Dugin constantly argues with right/left liberals, communists and others. He is very social, it's not very hard to establish connection with him. I met him in person only once, but I know some people who were partying at his place. The last but not least, Dugin is a meme fuel. You can't imagine how many funny stories are about him, and how many funny speeches he made.
I've never expected Dugin to become a tragic figure, a father, who lost his child in a struggle against the western puppets. Maybe we will witness a new Dugin soon.
👍4
Yesterday the special military operation in Ukraine celebrated its 6th month anniversary. The holiday coincided with Ukrainian independence day, so Russian troops made the date unforgettable with missile strikes and operations of strategic bombers (rare guests in Ukrainian sky).
The frontline changes very slowly, in recent two or even three weeks the Russians liberated some villages in DPR, Kharkov and Nikolaev oblasts. Some experts claim that grand offensive will start soon, but I hear these talks all six months. If something happens, I'll write about it.
Previous milestone
The frontline changes very slowly, in recent two or even three weeks the Russians liberated some villages in DPR, Kharkov and Nikolaev oblasts. Some experts claim that grand offensive will start soon, but I hear these talks all six months. If something happens, I'll write about it.
Previous milestone
Telegram
Russia 101
100 days of war
All experts expected two things.
First, Russian army must have defeated Ukraine quickly. Maybe in a week, maybe in two weeks. Then Special military operation should have turned into police operation with detention of Ukrainian nationalists…
All experts expected two things.
First, Russian army must have defeated Ukraine quickly. Maybe in a week, maybe in two weeks. Then Special military operation should have turned into police operation with detention of Ukrainian nationalists…
A few words about nuclear power plant in Zaporozhye
ZNPP is the biggest in Ukraine (and Europe): it has six reactors, which generate 40bln kW h annualy, and four high-woltage power lines transfer the electricity in different directions. Russians took the plant in March, together with a town of Energodar, where the personnel lives. Most of the ZNPP workers stayed.
The situation on ZNPP is delicate. Ukrainian workers report both to Rosatom and (Ukrainian) Energoatom, the electricity goes (until today) to the territories taken by the Russians and those which stayed under Ukrainian control. There are three reasons why the work organized in such manner.
1. The staff at ZNPP is 11k people. All of them cannot be replaced by the Russians. So Rosatom just sent supervisors.
2. The plant is in Ukrainian energy system. Any changes, like cutting off electricity supply to some areas, require coordination, otherwise it can lead to the disasters on voltage lines, or worse.
3. Humanitarian reasons. The electricity shortage will affect civillians on the Ukrainian side.
Since July the plant has become a target for Ukrainian artillery and drones. It should be noted that the reactors are built in the blocks which can withstand not only artillery shelling, but the direct hit of long-haul aircraft. What do Ukrainians want? At first I thought that they want to clear the plant from Russians and working personnel, causing shut down of the reactors. This will affect Russian territories more, because Ukrainians can redistribute the juice within their system, although that will be a sacrifice for them, too. Now I think that nuclear disaster is an option.
The reactors were built in the Soviet times, and till 2014 they used Soviet, than Russian fuel. After Donbass conflict Ukrainians switched to American supplier, which, unlike Rosatom, doesn't provide recycling of nuclear waste. The used fuel is put into storage near the power plant. The storage is also protected, but it can't endure long work of the artillery. Technically it's possible to wait for the west wind and hit the storage with missiles. This will cause a nuclear disaster in Zaporozhye oblast, and possibly in DPR, LPR, Russia. Since all western media claim that... Russians shoot at the power plant they control, I have no doubts all consequences of Ukrainian strikes will be Russian problem.
In recent two days all four voltage lines were cut due to Ukrainian attacks. Today only those lines were restored, which connect Russian-controlled areas and the plant. For a time Kherson and other cities were without electricity, but now it's fine.
#zaporozhye
ZNPP is the biggest in Ukraine (and Europe): it has six reactors, which generate 40bln kW h annualy, and four high-woltage power lines transfer the electricity in different directions. Russians took the plant in March, together with a town of Energodar, where the personnel lives. Most of the ZNPP workers stayed.
The situation on ZNPP is delicate. Ukrainian workers report both to Rosatom and (Ukrainian) Energoatom, the electricity goes (until today) to the territories taken by the Russians and those which stayed under Ukrainian control. There are three reasons why the work organized in such manner.
1. The staff at ZNPP is 11k people. All of them cannot be replaced by the Russians. So Rosatom just sent supervisors.
2. The plant is in Ukrainian energy system. Any changes, like cutting off electricity supply to some areas, require coordination, otherwise it can lead to the disasters on voltage lines, or worse.
3. Humanitarian reasons. The electricity shortage will affect civillians on the Ukrainian side.
Since July the plant has become a target for Ukrainian artillery and drones. It should be noted that the reactors are built in the blocks which can withstand not only artillery shelling, but the direct hit of long-haul aircraft. What do Ukrainians want? At first I thought that they want to clear the plant from Russians and working personnel, causing shut down of the reactors. This will affect Russian territories more, because Ukrainians can redistribute the juice within their system, although that will be a sacrifice for them, too. Now I think that nuclear disaster is an option.
The reactors were built in the Soviet times, and till 2014 they used Soviet, than Russian fuel. After Donbass conflict Ukrainians switched to American supplier, which, unlike Rosatom, doesn't provide recycling of nuclear waste. The used fuel is put into storage near the power plant. The storage is also protected, but it can't endure long work of the artillery. Technically it's possible to wait for the west wind and hit the storage with missiles. This will cause a nuclear disaster in Zaporozhye oblast, and possibly in DPR, LPR, Russia. Since all western media claim that... Russians shoot at the power plant they control, I have no doubts all consequences of Ukrainian strikes will be Russian problem.
In recent two days all four voltage lines were cut due to Ukrainian attacks. Today only those lines were restored, which connect Russian-controlled areas and the plant. For a time Kherson and other cities were without electricity, but now it's fine.
#zaporozhye
👍1
For two months Russian and Ukrainian journalists were writing one thing: "we prepared the reserves and soon our glorious army will start an offensive operation". Most of the experts claimed that it will take place in South. Either Ukrainians would try to take Kherson, or Russians attack Nikolaev/Krivoy Rog/Zaporozhye.
This war reminds me WWI. The main role on the battlefield belongs to the artillery. Tanks and other vehicles are not broadly used, because Ukrainians don't have much oil and they already lost a lot of equipment. Still they have Javelins and other anti-tank weapons, so Russian tanks are always in danger. Same story with aviation. Therefore the attacker is in noticable disadvantage.
Ukrainians took the risk and crossed Ingulets river, located between Nikolaev oblast and Kherson oblast. What is known at the moment? First of all, the offensive is ongoing. Despite Russian counter-attacks, Ukrainians kept some ground. Their most notable achievement is capture of Sukhoy Stavok village, 6km away from the previous frontline. Although it is reported that now Russian artillery cleared the place, Ukrainians saved control over two settlements closer to Ingulets river.
Rather worrying reports from the northern parts of Kherson oblast. Ukrainians attack Russian troops from two directions and have Russian supply lines under artillery control.
The outcome this battle depends on reserves. Ukrainians lost much more people than Russians, and whether they have δύναμις to proceed is a big question to me.
#war_in_ukraine
This war reminds me WWI. The main role on the battlefield belongs to the artillery. Tanks and other vehicles are not broadly used, because Ukrainians don't have much oil and they already lost a lot of equipment. Still they have Javelins and other anti-tank weapons, so Russian tanks are always in danger. Same story with aviation. Therefore the attacker is in noticable disadvantage.
Ukrainians took the risk and crossed Ingulets river, located between Nikolaev oblast and Kherson oblast. What is known at the moment? First of all, the offensive is ongoing. Despite Russian counter-attacks, Ukrainians kept some ground. Their most notable achievement is capture of Sukhoy Stavok village, 6km away from the previous frontline. Although it is reported that now Russian artillery cleared the place, Ukrainians saved control over two settlements closer to Ingulets river.
Rather worrying reports from the northern parts of Kherson oblast. Ukrainians attack Russian troops from two directions and have Russian supply lines under artillery control.
The outcome this battle depends on reserves. Ukrainians lost much more people than Russians, and whether they have δύναμις to proceed is a big question to me.
#war_in_ukraine
The offensive goes between two orange rhombuses. The southern one is Blagodatnoye village, the norther one is Vysokopolye village, there is 80km between them. Almost all Ukrainian attacks were repelled, their successful advancement shown as a grey rhombus, while currently captured village is in blue.
I see a lot of hatred today. Gorbachev died yesterday and many patriots of different views express their joy.
When Gorbachev came to power the USSR was in crisis. The ineffectiveness of planned economy made the country backwarded in comparisson with the West. People were disappointed in communist ideology. After Kruschev the Soviet elites did their best to keep status-quo in politics. They wanted to save their privileges, therefore they denied control from below (Soviet-era elections were even a bigger joke than Russian elections now) and didn't let initiative leaders to take power above them. The USSR required strong and determined leaders and got a chain of old people instead. When Leonid Brezhnev came to power in 1964 he was an active person with military and party experience. Ten years later he was a wreck, a character of Soviet jokes. Still he ruled till his death in 1982. Andropov was a leader since 1982 to 1984. Chernenko ruled the superpower for one year.
Politburo decided to change the situation and picked Gorbachev as Secretary General because of his age. In 1985 Gorbachev was officially elected, in 1987 he declared a long-awaited program of reforms, called "Perestroika".
It was a change of paradigm. You can criticize officials. You can read Bulgakov, Pasternak, Zamyatin and different foreign authors. You don't need to fight useless war in Afghanistan. It is much better to negotiate with Americans instead of spending your last ruble on new super-duper tank or missile.
Unfortunately, economic part of the reforms was a mess. Gorbachev failed to mix market elements with planned economy and paved way to the unseen growth of criminal activity and corruption. People didn't see the improvement of their life conditions, while introduction of free speech (glasnost) embraced nationalist ideas. The appearance of popular national leaders in Soviet republics was the end of Gorbachev. Despite successful referendum on saving the country, national leaders decided otherwise and signed Belovezh Accords, which declared the end of the USSR.
In Russia people don't forgive political leaders if they are weak, and it's the main problem of Gorbachev. He tried to save the USSR, but he lacked a team of reformers, he didn't have enough knowledge and management skills. He was the last hope, and he betrayed it.
#obituary
When Gorbachev came to power the USSR was in crisis. The ineffectiveness of planned economy made the country backwarded in comparisson with the West. People were disappointed in communist ideology. After Kruschev the Soviet elites did their best to keep status-quo in politics. They wanted to save their privileges, therefore they denied control from below (Soviet-era elections were even a bigger joke than Russian elections now) and didn't let initiative leaders to take power above them. The USSR required strong and determined leaders and got a chain of old people instead. When Leonid Brezhnev came to power in 1964 he was an active person with military and party experience. Ten years later he was a wreck, a character of Soviet jokes. Still he ruled till his death in 1982. Andropov was a leader since 1982 to 1984. Chernenko ruled the superpower for one year.
Politburo decided to change the situation and picked Gorbachev as Secretary General because of his age. In 1985 Gorbachev was officially elected, in 1987 he declared a long-awaited program of reforms, called "Perestroika".
It was a change of paradigm. You can criticize officials. You can read Bulgakov, Pasternak, Zamyatin and different foreign authors. You don't need to fight useless war in Afghanistan. It is much better to negotiate with Americans instead of spending your last ruble on new super-duper tank or missile.
Unfortunately, economic part of the reforms was a mess. Gorbachev failed to mix market elements with planned economy and paved way to the unseen growth of criminal activity and corruption. People didn't see the improvement of their life conditions, while introduction of free speech (glasnost) embraced nationalist ideas. The appearance of popular national leaders in Soviet republics was the end of Gorbachev. Despite successful referendum on saving the country, national leaders decided otherwise and signed Belovezh Accords, which declared the end of the USSR.
In Russia people don't forgive political leaders if they are weak, and it's the main problem of Gorbachev. He tried to save the USSR, but he lacked a team of reformers, he didn't have enough knowledge and management skills. He was the last hope, and he betrayed it.
#obituary
🤔1
The offensive of Ukrainian forces continues. Judging by the videos of burning tanks, wounded foot soldiers, lines of ambulance cars in Nikolaev, obituaries in regional newspapers I can carefully claim that Ukrainians have problems and soon they will be stopped. They advanced for couple of kilometers more, maybe 7-8km in total since Monday.
Meanwhile today Ukrainians organized landing near Energodar, where Zaporozhskaya nuclear plant located. At first I could not believe in this, because the attack looked suicidal from the start. According to Russian MoD, Ukrainians lost 60 people in the first wave and only Dnepr river knows how many drowned in the second one. Ukrainians deny the landing took place at all. Now there is a video of two Russian helicopters flying over Energodar and a photo of a hit barge (suspiciosly without a tug boat). I hope to see more information on that landing in the nearest future.
As for IAEA mission, despite Ukrainian attack it reached Energodar to inspect ZNPP. Russian officials hope that presence of the mission will prevent the Ukrainians to shell the plant. Well, maybe it will work. I won't be surprised of Ukrainians kill some IAEA delegates and accuse Russia of it.
#war_in_ukraine
Meanwhile today Ukrainians organized landing near Energodar, where Zaporozhskaya nuclear plant located. At first I could not believe in this, because the attack looked suicidal from the start. According to Russian MoD, Ukrainians lost 60 people in the first wave and only Dnepr river knows how many drowned in the second one. Ukrainians deny the landing took place at all. Now there is a video of two Russian helicopters flying over Energodar and a photo of a hit barge (suspiciosly without a tug boat). I hope to see more information on that landing in the nearest future.
As for IAEA mission, despite Ukrainian attack it reached Energodar to inspect ZNPP. Russian officials hope that presence of the mission will prevent the Ukrainians to shell the plant. Well, maybe it will work. I won't be surprised of Ukrainians kill some IAEA delegates and accuse Russia of it.
#war_in_ukraine
I think everybody saw the frustration of Europeans concerning the prices of housing services. Let's talk about bills in Russia instead, maybe you'll compare them with yours.
My Moscow flat is in typical Soviet building *molchat doma song plays on the background*. It's a bit less than 60m², which is also a typical size. How much do I pay for that monthly? Here is the list, with 1$=62₽.
Electricity 5-6$ (300-400₽)
Phone+Internet 5$ (315₽)
Gas 1,5$-2,5$ (7₽ for 1m³ 100-200₽)
Cold water 5$-6,5$ (45₽ for 1m³ 300-400₽)
Hot water 10$-16$ (223₽ for 1m³ 600-1000₽)
Sewers 3$-6,5$ (200-400₽)
Central heating 38$ (2400₽)
Overhaul 19$ (1200₽)
Garbage removal 32$ (2000₽)
Tv-set 4$ (270₽)
In (maximum) total 135$
Is it much? According to Russian Statistics Service, average salary in Moscow is 111092₽, which is 1791$. Taking into account high inequality levels, it's better to use median salary, 62500₽=1008$.
Does it differ from other regions of Russia? Yes, usually the bills are smaller in other regions, but salaries are lower there, too. Important exceptions are polar and some Far Eastern regions, where housing services are extremely expensive.
What is overhaul? We pay every month for future repair of the building. The size of the bill depends on the square of the flat. That's relatively new line in the bills, before such works were provided by the state automatically.
What about taxes? There is annual property tax, let's say 50$ for such flat.
In the end I should say there are subsidies for poor and elder owners, usually they cover 50% of the bill.
So, what do you think? Is it cool to live in Moscow?
#lifestyle
My Moscow flat is in typical Soviet building *molchat doma song plays on the background*. It's a bit less than 60m², which is also a typical size. How much do I pay for that monthly? Here is the list, with 1$=62₽.
Electricity 5-6$ (300-400₽)
Phone+Internet 5$ (315₽)
Gas 1,5$-2,5$ (7₽ for 1m³ 100-200₽)
Cold water 5$-6,5$ (45₽ for 1m³ 300-400₽)
Hot water 10$-16$ (223₽ for 1m³ 600-1000₽)
Sewers 3$-6,5$ (200-400₽)
Central heating 38$ (2400₽)
Overhaul 19$ (1200₽)
Garbage removal 32$ (2000₽)
Tv-set 4$ (270₽)
In (maximum) total 135$
Is it much? According to Russian Statistics Service, average salary in Moscow is 111092₽, which is 1791$. Taking into account high inequality levels, it's better to use median salary, 62500₽=1008$.
Does it differ from other regions of Russia? Yes, usually the bills are smaller in other regions, but salaries are lower there, too. Important exceptions are polar and some Far Eastern regions, where housing services are extremely expensive.
What is overhaul? We pay every month for future repair of the building. The size of the bill depends on the square of the flat. That's relatively new line in the bills, before such works were provided by the state automatically.
What about taxes? There is annual property tax, let's say 50$ for such flat.
In the end I should say there are subsidies for poor and elder owners, usually they cover 50% of the bill.
So, what do you think? Is it cool to live in Moscow?
#lifestyle
The Ukrainians continue their offensive in Kherson oblast, where they took two-three villages in the northern part of the region. Meanwhile their attacks in the south failed.
Anyway, now Russians have bigger problem: new Ukrainian offensive in Kharkov oblast, which started yesterday. The main target of Ukrainians is the city of Balakleya with the biggest military warehouses in Ukraine. Russian garisson is in tactical encirclement there, which means the supply lines are under Ukrainian artillery shells. City of Izyum is also under attack. There is a chance for Ukrainians to enter the operational space, maybe for the first time in this war.
Since two offensives have a lot in common, I think we can talk about certain patterns here.
1. We overslept both attacks. It's extremely surprising, because many experts predicted problems near Kharkov month ago. Moreover, Russians didn't use reserves in Kherson, probably expecting attacks somewhere else.
2. Ukrainians target weak units, which consist of mobilized men from DPR/LPR. There is huge debate how weak they are now, because they have 6 months war experience already and their equipment also became better.
3. In first wave of offensive Ukrainians use their mobilized soldiers. They suffer heavy losses, but Russians spend the ammo on them and reveal firing positions. After that professional Ukrainian units come in the second wave.
The main difference between two operations lies rather in landscape than smth human-related. In steppes between Kherson and Nikolaev it is easier to evaporate attacking forces, while forests in Kharkov oblast give them cover. I believe within a couple of days it will become clear who wins what this time.
#war_in_ukraine
Anyway, now Russians have bigger problem: new Ukrainian offensive in Kharkov oblast, which started yesterday. The main target of Ukrainians is the city of Balakleya with the biggest military warehouses in Ukraine. Russian garisson is in tactical encirclement there, which means the supply lines are under Ukrainian artillery shells. City of Izyum is also under attack. There is a chance for Ukrainians to enter the operational space, maybe for the first time in this war.
Since two offensives have a lot in common, I think we can talk about certain patterns here.
1. We overslept both attacks. It's extremely surprising, because many experts predicted problems near Kharkov month ago. Moreover, Russians didn't use reserves in Kherson, probably expecting attacks somewhere else.
2. Ukrainians target weak units, which consist of mobilized men from DPR/LPR. There is huge debate how weak they are now, because they have 6 months war experience already and their equipment also became better.
3. In first wave of offensive Ukrainians use their mobilized soldiers. They suffer heavy losses, but Russians spend the ammo on them and reveal firing positions. After that professional Ukrainian units come in the second wave.
The main difference between two operations lies rather in landscape than smth human-related. In steppes between Kherson and Nikolaev it is easier to evaporate attacking forces, while forests in Kharkov oblast give them cover. I believe within a couple of days it will become clear who wins what this time.
#war_in_ukraine
I wanted to write smth about Russian-British relations, but it's not the right time. We lost Kupyansk, in my opinion the most pro-Russian city in Kharkov oblast, there many people will be executed if they stay.
Just now I found out we retreated from Izyum, the biggest city in Kharkov oblast we took. The fighting lasted for months there, and we lost it overnight. Thus Ukrainians have control over all Kharkov oblast except small buffer zones near the state border.
I am a bit busy now so can't observe things properly, still the situation looks like complete victory of Ukrainian forces.
#war_in_ukraine
Just now I found out we retreated from Izyum, the biggest city in Kharkov oblast we took. The fighting lasted for months there, and we lost it overnight. Thus Ukrainians have control over all Kharkov oblast except small buffer zones near the state border.
I am a bit busy now so can't observe things properly, still the situation looks like complete victory of Ukrainian forces.
#war_in_ukraine
Before the discussion of the recent defeat near Kharkov, let's speak about Russia and the war in general.
In my opinion the reasons of Russian failures lie in political sphere. Russia is an authoritarian state. It has many features, but what is important now is lack of competition and absence of properly working system of checks and balances. It's almost impossible to punish a politician who made wrong decision by choosing someone else on elections. Ofcourse for president it's simply not possible at all. There is no such thing as parliamentary investigation, even de-jure. Journalists can't write freely about the events. Here I can give an example of Ivan Safronov, who wrote some analytics for foreigners based on open sources and got 24 years of imprisonment for espionage.
Unfortunately, authoritarianism itself is not the only problem. What we observe is the discouraging(?) authoritarianism. That is the Russian govt shows you in many ways that it doesn't need your help. You can't organize a rally for support of the Russian troops. The govt can, it does sometimes and gather administratively dependent workers (we call them budgetnik, "a budget man", like teachers in state schools, workers in the military-industrial complex etc.). If you want to send some dual-purpose stuff for soldiers in Ukraine nobody will guarantee you'll do it without paying bribes to customs officers. If you are active, even without challeging the regime, all bureaucrats and law enforcers consider you suspicious and potentially dangerous.
The next problem is ideology, or rather its absence. In Russia it's very vague set of ideas, which are not stated in any law. Moreover, the constitution directly bans the foundation of state ideology. Present-day set of ideas looks more or less this way:
1. We respect Orthodox Christianity and other religions present in Russia
2. We don't like new leftists with gender studies, LGBT promotion etc.
3. We deny any forms of nationalism and nazism
4. We promote cultural diversity, de-facto multiculturalism
How does it work? In short, it works bad. First of all, most of the Russians are secular westernized people, who don't care about LGBT issues, don't follow ideas of traditionalism, and not so many people consider Christianity as smth very important. You may not like it, but the myth of "based White Christian Russia" doesn't reflect the reality. Therefore soviet-style multiculturalism + declarative traditionalism + discouraging authoritarianism lead to the empowerment of the traditionalist ethnic minorities and passivity of ethnic Russians, who comprise majority of the population.
Later I'm going to write how these conditions influence(d) Russian campaign in Ukraine.
In my opinion the reasons of Russian failures lie in political sphere. Russia is an authoritarian state. It has many features, but what is important now is lack of competition and absence of properly working system of checks and balances. It's almost impossible to punish a politician who made wrong decision by choosing someone else on elections. Ofcourse for president it's simply not possible at all. There is no such thing as parliamentary investigation, even de-jure. Journalists can't write freely about the events. Here I can give an example of Ivan Safronov, who wrote some analytics for foreigners based on open sources and got 24 years of imprisonment for espionage.
Unfortunately, authoritarianism itself is not the only problem. What we observe is the discouraging(?) authoritarianism. That is the Russian govt shows you in many ways that it doesn't need your help. You can't organize a rally for support of the Russian troops. The govt can, it does sometimes and gather administratively dependent workers (we call them budgetnik, "a budget man", like teachers in state schools, workers in the military-industrial complex etc.). If you want to send some dual-purpose stuff for soldiers in Ukraine nobody will guarantee you'll do it without paying bribes to customs officers. If you are active, even without challeging the regime, all bureaucrats and law enforcers consider you suspicious and potentially dangerous.
The next problem is ideology, or rather its absence. In Russia it's very vague set of ideas, which are not stated in any law. Moreover, the constitution directly bans the foundation of state ideology. Present-day set of ideas looks more or less this way:
1. We respect Orthodox Christianity and other religions present in Russia
2. We don't like new leftists with gender studies, LGBT promotion etc.
3. We deny any forms of nationalism and nazism
4. We promote cultural diversity, de-facto multiculturalism
How does it work? In short, it works bad. First of all, most of the Russians are secular westernized people, who don't care about LGBT issues, don't follow ideas of traditionalism, and not so many people consider Christianity as smth very important. You may not like it, but the myth of "based White Christian Russia" doesn't reflect the reality. Therefore soviet-style multiculturalism + declarative traditionalism + discouraging authoritarianism lead to the empowerment of the traditionalist ethnic minorities and passivity of ethnic Russians, who comprise majority of the population.
Later I'm going to write how these conditions influence(d) Russian campaign in Ukraine.
👍4
Today the State Duma discusses the laws about mobilization, military service, martial law and other war-related stuff.
At the same time LPR, DPR, Kherson oblast and Zaporozhye oblast asked to join Russia. The referendums in DPR and LPR will be held 23-27 of September, according to the republican leaders.
What does it mean? After the defeat near Kharkov it became clear that 200k Russian soldiers can't win this war. It's hard to evaluate the size of Ukrainian army, but it was 200k before the mobilization. In May Zelensky claimed that the Ukrainian army reached 700k. Since it's impossible to lead "productive" offensive operations without numerical superiority, the Russians stucked in urban landscapes or Ukrainian defensive lines.
The only solution to that problem is Russian mobilization, limited or full. It's not an easy step for the Russian officials and for the Russian public. The first are not very competent, while mobilization requires organizing skills, not saying that in case smth goes wrong the responsible will be punished according to the war time laws. As for ordinary Russians, basically nobody wants to die, simple as that.
If DPR/LPR is considered Russian territory, then the govt can send conscripts there. I believe we are talking about 150-200k soldiers, although without proper skills and experience. For now that's the immediate outcome I see. If there are more, I'll write about them later.
#war_in_ukraine #legislation
At the same time LPR, DPR, Kherson oblast and Zaporozhye oblast asked to join Russia. The referendums in DPR and LPR will be held 23-27 of September, according to the republican leaders.
What does it mean? After the defeat near Kharkov it became clear that 200k Russian soldiers can't win this war. It's hard to evaluate the size of Ukrainian army, but it was 200k before the mobilization. In May Zelensky claimed that the Ukrainian army reached 700k. Since it's impossible to lead "productive" offensive operations without numerical superiority, the Russians stucked in urban landscapes or Ukrainian defensive lines.
The only solution to that problem is Russian mobilization, limited or full. It's not an easy step for the Russian officials and for the Russian public. The first are not very competent, while mobilization requires organizing skills, not saying that in case smth goes wrong the responsible will be punished according to the war time laws. As for ordinary Russians, basically nobody wants to die, simple as that.
If DPR/LPR is considered Russian territory, then the govt can send conscripts there. I believe we are talking about 150-200k soldiers, although without proper skills and experience. For now that's the immediate outcome I see. If there are more, I'll write about them later.
#war_in_ukraine #legislation
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I didn't watch the adress of Putin and Shoigu, still the partial mobilization is an event you can't miss. The plans are to get 300k people into the army. I'm not a military expert, but this number looks suspiciously small, especially if you plan to take Odessa and Nikolaev. So I won't be surprised if Russian army gets more people than it is claimed now, maybe there will be second, third waves of mobilization.
Now the mobilization related to people who already did military service. Russia has cоmpulsory conscription, people serve one year. There are a lot of ways to avoid military service, but many people join the army after all, so the govt has sufficient manpower pool.
Now the mobilization related to people who already did military service. Russia has cоmpulsory conscription, people serve one year. There are a lot of ways to avoid military service, but many people join the army after all, so the govt has sufficient manpower pool.
It's an interesting story, and at the same time it becomes a routine. From Ukrainian and Western sources, Russians find out that foreign mercenaries and some Azov soldiers were exchanged for somebody or something. As usual, it is not known what/whom Russia got instead. Saudi Arabia was a mediator of the process.
The governmental media in Russia are silent, the officials say nothing. Previously, some Russian MPs, leaders of the republics, high-ranking military officers claimed that the POWs will be punished for their wrongdoings. Moreover some mercs exchanged today were sentenced to death by the court of DPR.
I've lived in Russia all my life and don't believe local bureaucrats/politicians much, but what I've seen since 24th of February is a parade of events/decisions bordering on treason. Judging by the course of war I don't see the black pill season coming to an end soon.
The governmental media in Russia are silent, the officials say nothing. Previously, some Russian MPs, leaders of the republics, high-ranking military officers claimed that the POWs will be punished for their wrongdoings. Moreover some mercs exchanged today were sentenced to death by the court of DPR.
I've lived in Russia all my life and don't believe local bureaucrats/politicians much, but what I've seen since 24th of February is a parade of events/decisions bordering on treason. Judging by the course of war I don't see the black pill season coming to an end soon.
55 Russian POWs were released, according to @rybar
Btw, that's the first time I see a photo of an exchange from the Russian side
Btw, that's the first time I see a photo of an exchange from the Russian side
What I don't like in the internet is the generalization of the information, like "Russians do this, Russians do that...". Russia is a big and diverse country, people here have different opinions on many things, including war in Ukraine and mobilization.
Some people flee. The exodus began in February, nobody has exact numbers but we are talking about 100-150k people. It's a lot, but 146mln people live in Russia, so when I hear "look at the Russians, they run away from their country" technically it sounds correct, but in fact it's relatively rich westernized minority who has enough money to live abroad.
Some people go to the rally points themselves. This process started in March, when people realized that the war will be long. Many joined DPR/LPR troops directly, some were directed to the Russian units through military commissariats. Basically all who really wanted to fight are on the frontlines since spring. Once again, hard to say how many volunteers from Russia fight in DPR/LPR, and how many joined (returned to) the Russian army because of the war, but I think the combined number of fighters is two times smaller than the number of fled: 40k in RAF + 10k in DPR/LPR.
The majority is passive, as usual. The Shoigu's words about limits of the mobilization (300k people who served in the army) don't have any legal base. The law on mobilization makes exceptions only for people with poor health conditions, and the number of mobilized is not stated in the president's order. Therefore all males younger than 50 y.o. can recieve a writ from the military commissariat any day now. What will people do with these writs? Some will try to ignore them, at least until the police comes, others will obey.
Some people flee. The exodus began in February, nobody has exact numbers but we are talking about 100-150k people. It's a lot, but 146mln people live in Russia, so when I hear "look at the Russians, they run away from their country" technically it sounds correct, but in fact it's relatively rich westernized minority who has enough money to live abroad.
Some people go to the rally points themselves. This process started in March, when people realized that the war will be long. Many joined DPR/LPR troops directly, some were directed to the Russian units through military commissariats. Basically all who really wanted to fight are on the frontlines since spring. Once again, hard to say how many volunteers from Russia fight in DPR/LPR, and how many joined (returned to) the Russian army because of the war, but I think the combined number of fighters is two times smaller than the number of fled: 40k in RAF + 10k in DPR/LPR.
The majority is passive, as usual. The Shoigu's words about limits of the mobilization (300k people who served in the army) don't have any legal base. The law on mobilization makes exceptions only for people with poor health conditions, and the number of mobilized is not stated in the president's order. Therefore all males younger than 50 y.o. can recieve a writ from the military commissariat any day now. What will people do with these writs? Some will try to ignore them, at least until the police comes, others will obey.
Three major events in Russia: mobilization, referendums in former Ukraine and Nord Stream sabotage. Today I would like to cover the second topic.
In my opinion referendums should be divided in two groups: the first one includes DPR and LPR, the second is for Kherson and Zaporozhye.
People in DPR and LPR were dying for 8 years because they wanted to join Russia. Ukrainian supporters left Lugansk and Donetsk long time ago, so the results are not surprising: 99% in DPR and 98% in LPR demanded the unification with Russia. I would call these referendums honest. Not legal, but honest. And I congratulate all citizens/residents of DPR and LPR with this symbolic act.
Kherson and Zaporozhye are different.
The pro-Russian attitude of the locals in Zaporozhye was based on economic ties with Russia. Huge industrial plants produced engines and different equipment for the Russian market, thus securing the Soviet-organized cooperation. The management of these plants supported pro-Russian politicians. Since 2014 the trade with Russia was severely limited, now the industrial plants barely operate, the influence of their management dissappeared. Many pro-Russian activists moved to the DPR and Russia, while the others were supressed by the SBU.
The Southern part of Zaporozhye oblast, which is now under Russian control, was deindustrialized even earlier, and people there rely on tourism and other services. Since 2014 the flow of the Russian tourists decreased, and business there oriented on domestic market. Russian troops entered Berdyansk and Melitopol without the fight, but I cannot say the locals were happy about such development. Eventually they got used to the Russian administration, and Ukrainian missile strikes convinced many that reunification with Russia is a lesser evil. Still 90% turnout and 93% support of Russia is a joke, I can't take such numbers seriously.
Kherson was the most orange (colour of pro-western movement in 2004) region in the South of Ukraine. In my opinion it is linked with historical reasons. In imperial times Kherson was the first capital of Novorossiya, but eventually Nikolaev and Odessa replaced it as major Black sea port, while the capital of the governorate moved to Yekaterinoslav (Dnepropetrovsk). In Soviet and post-Soviet times Kherson remained an insignificant backward place, and since all "competitors" of Kherson were pro-Russian, the regional identity, despite the dominance of the Russian language, became more pro-western. The "westernization" trend intensified after 2014, and bureacrats who drew 83% support of Russia are brain-dead if they expect someone would believe in that.
Anyway, Russia took responsibility of these territories. We must somehow organize peaceful life there, provide people with their needs, and, who knows, maybe one day we will get 90% approval in reality.
In my opinion referendums should be divided in two groups: the first one includes DPR and LPR, the second is for Kherson and Zaporozhye.
People in DPR and LPR were dying for 8 years because they wanted to join Russia. Ukrainian supporters left Lugansk and Donetsk long time ago, so the results are not surprising: 99% in DPR and 98% in LPR demanded the unification with Russia. I would call these referendums honest. Not legal, but honest. And I congratulate all citizens/residents of DPR and LPR with this symbolic act.
Kherson and Zaporozhye are different.
The pro-Russian attitude of the locals in Zaporozhye was based on economic ties with Russia. Huge industrial plants produced engines and different equipment for the Russian market, thus securing the Soviet-organized cooperation. The management of these plants supported pro-Russian politicians. Since 2014 the trade with Russia was severely limited, now the industrial plants barely operate, the influence of their management dissappeared. Many pro-Russian activists moved to the DPR and Russia, while the others were supressed by the SBU.
The Southern part of Zaporozhye oblast, which is now under Russian control, was deindustrialized even earlier, and people there rely on tourism and other services. Since 2014 the flow of the Russian tourists decreased, and business there oriented on domestic market. Russian troops entered Berdyansk and Melitopol without the fight, but I cannot say the locals were happy about such development. Eventually they got used to the Russian administration, and Ukrainian missile strikes convinced many that reunification with Russia is a lesser evil. Still 90% turnout and 93% support of Russia is a joke, I can't take such numbers seriously.
Kherson was the most orange (colour of pro-western movement in 2004) region in the South of Ukraine. In my opinion it is linked with historical reasons. In imperial times Kherson was the first capital of Novorossiya, but eventually Nikolaev and Odessa replaced it as major Black sea port, while the capital of the governorate moved to Yekaterinoslav (Dnepropetrovsk). In Soviet and post-Soviet times Kherson remained an insignificant backward place, and since all "competitors" of Kherson were pro-Russian, the regional identity, despite the dominance of the Russian language, became more pro-western. The "westernization" trend intensified after 2014, and bureacrats who drew 83% support of Russia are brain-dead if they expect someone would believe in that.
Anyway, Russia took responsibility of these territories. We must somehow organize peaceful life there, provide people with their needs, and, who knows, maybe one day we will get 90% approval in reality.
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