On March 28, Rosneft sold its assets in Venezuela. For a second, it seemed that Russian participation in Latin American affairs had been reduced to a minimum. Since 2010, Russia and its state-owned companies have invested (and gave loans) more than $17bln in Venezuela. With current oil prices, sanctions against Russia and Venezuela, permanent threat of Maduro's regime collapse, these investments are in danger like never before.
However, soon it became clear that the Russian government became the buyer of Rosneft's Venezuelan assets, and what we are witnessing is a desperate attempt by a Russian state-owned company to avoid American sanctions. Under current regulations, companies operating in Venezuela are subject to U.S. sanctions. Sanctions are also imposed on the parent company, if it owns > 50% of subsidiary company operating in Venezuela. Such sanctions were imposed against Rosneft last week, which somewhat complicated its work with traders. Under the new scheme, Venezuelan subsidiaries will belong to a special Russian state company, which is predetermined to be under American sanctions.
Here are some reasons why Russia does not want to abandon Caracas.
1. Most of Russia's investment in Venezuela should be returned. It is clear that Caracas cannot do this now, even if it wants to, but such debts can be traded for a military presence in the country, votes in the UN, recognition of Crimea and other political services.
2. The economic side of Russian-Venezuelan relations is not that hopeless. For example, Venezuela returned its debt to Rosneft ($9bln), and at least tries to serve its debt to Russian state ($3bln left). The Venezuelan gold reserve is stored in Moscow since 2019. The biggest concerns are assets bought by the state on 28th of March. They are valued at $4bln, and with current oil prices and the sanctions regime, this value can be significantly reduced. It is also unclear how, under current conditions, Caracas will pay the remaining $3bln of debt.
3. American oil refineries were built to produce gasoline from Venezuelan oil, and it is a pleasure to make Americans have troubles in getting crude oil for their industry. In the context of the oil war, control over the oil supply is very important.
Of course, all these factors depend on Maduro's ability to stay in power. Russia's withdrawal would make the current Venezuelan regime completely defenseless against the United States, with Kremlin losing both investments and influence in the country.
I am not an expert in Latin America, so I can’t evaluate the strength of the Maduro's regime. Its present existence is a miracle to me and I am skeptical about its prospects. The Russian government has a choice either support Maduro, or lose Venezuela completely, that is why I don't expect significant changes in Russian-Venezuelan relations.
#oil #oil_war #international #venezuela
However, soon it became clear that the Russian government became the buyer of Rosneft's Venezuelan assets, and what we are witnessing is a desperate attempt by a Russian state-owned company to avoid American sanctions. Under current regulations, companies operating in Venezuela are subject to U.S. sanctions. Sanctions are also imposed on the parent company, if it owns > 50% of subsidiary company operating in Venezuela. Such sanctions were imposed against Rosneft last week, which somewhat complicated its work with traders. Under the new scheme, Venezuelan subsidiaries will belong to a special Russian state company, which is predetermined to be under American sanctions.
Here are some reasons why Russia does not want to abandon Caracas.
1. Most of Russia's investment in Venezuela should be returned. It is clear that Caracas cannot do this now, even if it wants to, but such debts can be traded for a military presence in the country, votes in the UN, recognition of Crimea and other political services.
2. The economic side of Russian-Venezuelan relations is not that hopeless. For example, Venezuela returned its debt to Rosneft ($9bln), and at least tries to serve its debt to Russian state ($3bln left). The Venezuelan gold reserve is stored in Moscow since 2019. The biggest concerns are assets bought by the state on 28th of March. They are valued at $4bln, and with current oil prices and the sanctions regime, this value can be significantly reduced. It is also unclear how, under current conditions, Caracas will pay the remaining $3bln of debt.
3. American oil refineries were built to produce gasoline from Venezuelan oil, and it is a pleasure to make Americans have troubles in getting crude oil for their industry. In the context of the oil war, control over the oil supply is very important.
Of course, all these factors depend on Maduro's ability to stay in power. Russia's withdrawal would make the current Venezuelan regime completely defenseless against the United States, with Kremlin losing both investments and influence in the country.
I am not an expert in Latin America, so I can’t evaluate the strength of the Maduro's regime. Its present existence is a miracle to me and I am skeptical about its prospects. The Russian government has a choice either support Maduro, or lose Venezuela completely, that is why I don't expect significant changes in Russian-Venezuelan relations.
#oil #oil_war #international #venezuela
Coronavirus became a shock to the Russian legal system.
It all started with a constitutional change. Voting on this issue was scheduled for April 22, but Putin postponed the procedure indefinitely. The problem is that the law on changing the constitution did not say anything about this possibility. Now I find it difficult to say which version of the constitution is in force, since the role of voting is also not very clear, and amendments to the old constitution have already been made.
March 29, Vladimir Putin announced holiday week, which contradicts the Labor Code. Laws oblige the authorities to warn about new days-off for at least two months in advance.
The situation at the regional level is even more interesting.
For example, as part of the fight against coronavirus, the mayor of Moscow, along with the governor of the Moscow region, introduced decrees of "preparation for an emergency". There are three such regimes: preparation for an emergency, emergency situation, and state of emergency. Only the third regime implies movement restrictions, but this did not bother the heads of the two regions. From March 5 to March 30, their decrees were becoming less and less consistent with the federal laws of Russia. The apotheosis happened today with a ban on leaving home. Formally remaining at the first level of emergency, Moscow reached the third one. The presidential administration and the government verbally (!) supported these actions.
While Moscow limited their citizens, the head of the Chechen Republic decided to close borders of his region for non-locals. Needless to say, such measures are anti-constitutional.
Now the Russian media scare citizens with fines for violating quarantine, which seems pretty funny, because the norms related to quarantine do not apply to the current situation.
In just two weeks Russia plunged into a state of legal chaos, and I don't see any signs of improvement.
#corona #legislation
It all started with a constitutional change. Voting on this issue was scheduled for April 22, but Putin postponed the procedure indefinitely. The problem is that the law on changing the constitution did not say anything about this possibility. Now I find it difficult to say which version of the constitution is in force, since the role of voting is also not very clear, and amendments to the old constitution have already been made.
March 29, Vladimir Putin announced holiday week, which contradicts the Labor Code. Laws oblige the authorities to warn about new days-off for at least two months in advance.
The situation at the regional level is even more interesting.
For example, as part of the fight against coronavirus, the mayor of Moscow, along with the governor of the Moscow region, introduced decrees of "preparation for an emergency". There are three such regimes: preparation for an emergency, emergency situation, and state of emergency. Only the third regime implies movement restrictions, but this did not bother the heads of the two regions. From March 5 to March 30, their decrees were becoming less and less consistent with the federal laws of Russia. The apotheosis happened today with a ban on leaving home. Formally remaining at the first level of emergency, Moscow reached the third one. The presidential administration and the government verbally (!) supported these actions.
While Moscow limited their citizens, the head of the Chechen Republic decided to close borders of his region for non-locals. Needless to say, such measures are anti-constitutional.
Now the Russian media scare citizens with fines for violating quarantine, which seems pretty funny, because the norms related to quarantine do not apply to the current situation.
In just two weeks Russia plunged into a state of legal chaos, and I don't see any signs of improvement.
#corona #legislation
Apparently the most adequate leader on the post-soviet territory is Lukashenko.
The president of Belarus accepts the existence of covid, but refuses to admit its seriousness. Putting cities on lockdown is out of the question. Lukashenko didn't even close schools. Actually he closed nothing. That's why all Russian football fans are choosing a Belarussian team to cheer on it. Yes, Belarus is the one country in the world where sports events weren't postponed. The only concession to virus are closed borders. The thing is, all countries around Belarus (including Russia) closed their borders, and there is no point to have them open anymore from Belarussian side.
This deliberate disdain towards covid has another dimension. Belarus just doesn't possess money to compensate the costs of hypothetical quarantine to its people and businesses. The virus is already in the country (the first case of infection was discovered in a student from Iran), and nobody can predict how the situation will evolve.
#corona #belarus
The president of Belarus accepts the existence of covid, but refuses to admit its seriousness. Putting cities on lockdown is out of the question. Lukashenko didn't even close schools. Actually he closed nothing. That's why all Russian football fans are choosing a Belarussian team to cheer on it. Yes, Belarus is the one country in the world where sports events weren't postponed. The only concession to virus are closed borders. The thing is, all countries around Belarus (including Russia) closed their borders, and there is no point to have them open anymore from Belarussian side.
This deliberate disdain towards covid has another dimension. Belarus just doesn't possess money to compensate the costs of hypothetical quarantine to its people and businesses. The virus is already in the country (the first case of infection was discovered in a student from Iran), and nobody can predict how the situation will evolve.
#corona #belarus
Content plan for this week.
10th. Russia and Ukraine
11th. Lunar and Solar Putin
12th. Muslims in Russia
I must post this, otherwise the procrastination will prevail
10th. Russia and Ukraine
11th. Lunar and Solar Putin
12th. Muslims in Russia
I must post this, otherwise the procrastination will prevail
Today Orthodox Christians celebrate Easter. The most devout believers usually have Easter Vigil liturgy, but due to coronavirus everybody just watches translation on tv. I'm already eating kulich, a traditional round cake. Apart from kulich, at Easter Russians eat eggs colored (mostly) in red. The egg is a symbol of tomb of Jesus, and red color means His blood.
At Easter people in Russia greet each other with words "Christ is risen", "Truly risen", but 70 years of Soviet atheism and contemporary spread of liberals create awkward situations for believers all the time. Still, this tradition is alive.
One week ago Orthodox Christians had Palm Sunday. There are no palms on the North, so Slavs and Baltic ethnicities (Bulgarians, Ukrainians, Poles, Lithuanians, Russians and other) usually use pussy willow in their rituals instead.
At Easter people in Russia greet each other with words "Christ is risen", "Truly risen", but 70 years of Soviet atheism and contemporary spread of liberals create awkward situations for believers all the time. Still, this tradition is alive.
One week ago Orthodox Christians had Palm Sunday. There are no palms on the North, so Slavs and Baltic ethnicities (Bulgarians, Ukrainians, Poles, Lithuanians, Russians and other) usually use pussy willow in their rituals instead.
Let's talk oil again.
One month ago OPEC+ countries wanted to strike a deal on reduction of oil mining. They failed. The exact reasons are unknown, but according to the media, Russian concerns were:
1. The biggest oil producer in the world (the US) didn't participate in the meeting
2. Saudis wanted Russia to cut production too much
After negotiations failed on 6th of March, Russian economy faced ideal storm of covid-19 quarantine measures and falling oil prices. American dollar exchange rate reacted first: it rose from 67₽ to 83₽ for 1$. I don't want to speculate about other indicators, because losses of Russian economy will be evaluated properly in the beginning of 2021, and still it would be impossible to separate impact of oil prices drop from quarantine implementation.
On 11th of April the new agreements were reached. Russia cut 18% of oil mining, Saudi Arabia 13%, and the US companies 15%-23%. The oil war came to an end for obvious reason: nobody buys oil because of the pandemic, and oil storages would be full within two-three months.
The next two questions which are important now for oil market, are:
1. For how long quarantine in Europe, India and the US will last? (Demand of oil)
2. Will the participants of OPEC++ agreements comply with the set limits of oil mining? (Supply of oil)
I can't answer the first question, but I doubt that Russia will fulfill its promise to cut oil production to 8,5mln bpd. The previous OPEC+ deal signed in 2016 showed that Russian officials didn't care about any limitations and made Russia the second oil producer after the US. So I'm sure that #oil_war and #oil hashtags won't disappear from this channel completely.
P.S. today 1$ costs 73₽
One month ago OPEC+ countries wanted to strike a deal on reduction of oil mining. They failed. The exact reasons are unknown, but according to the media, Russian concerns were:
1. The biggest oil producer in the world (the US) didn't participate in the meeting
2. Saudis wanted Russia to cut production too much
After negotiations failed on 6th of March, Russian economy faced ideal storm of covid-19 quarantine measures and falling oil prices. American dollar exchange rate reacted first: it rose from 67₽ to 83₽ for 1$. I don't want to speculate about other indicators, because losses of Russian economy will be evaluated properly in the beginning of 2021, and still it would be impossible to separate impact of oil prices drop from quarantine implementation.
On 11th of April the new agreements were reached. Russia cut 18% of oil mining, Saudi Arabia 13%, and the US companies 15%-23%. The oil war came to an end for obvious reason: nobody buys oil because of the pandemic, and oil storages would be full within two-three months.
The next two questions which are important now for oil market, are:
1. For how long quarantine in Europe, India and the US will last? (Demand of oil)
2. Will the participants of OPEC++ agreements comply with the set limits of oil mining? (Supply of oil)
I can't answer the first question, but I doubt that Russia will fulfill its promise to cut oil production to 8,5mln bpd. The previous OPEC+ deal signed in 2016 showed that Russian officials didn't care about any limitations and made Russia the second oil producer after the US. So I'm sure that #oil_war and #oil hashtags won't disappear from this channel completely.
P.S. today 1$ costs 73₽
I promised to write some news about Russia too. Ok. Today the whole country is looking on the North Ossetia (Alania), a small poor republic in the North Caucasian federal region. People took to streets and demanded abolition of quarantine measures. The head of the republic talked to people and promised help to the poor. Still, some protesters were arrested afterwards.
Why did it happen?
1. Values.
Latest poll of Gallup and its Russian partner Romir showed that 28% of Russians are not ready to give up their rights because of coronavirus. That's the second result in the world after the US (29%).
2. Social security.
Quarantine measures hit Russian economy. While registered employees can count on some (at least partial) compensation, illegal self-employed and those who have unregistered business (that's typical story for the North Caucasus) stopped operating and were left without income.
3. Regional politics. The leftist opposition used people's frustration and mobilized them.
Many experts fear that this meeting made epidemiological situation worse. Taking into account that Easter vigil in North Ossetia wasn't cancelled (unlike the vast majority of their Muslim neighbours, Ossetians are predominantly Orthodox Christians), the threat of outbreak in the republic is very high. Till that moment North Ossetia reported 120 cases and 7 deceased.
#protest #north_ossetia #corona
Why did it happen?
1. Values.
Latest poll of Gallup and its Russian partner Romir showed that 28% of Russians are not ready to give up their rights because of coronavirus. That's the second result in the world after the US (29%).
2. Social security.
Quarantine measures hit Russian economy. While registered employees can count on some (at least partial) compensation, illegal self-employed and those who have unregistered business (that's typical story for the North Caucasus) stopped operating and were left without income.
3. Regional politics. The leftist opposition used people's frustration and mobilized them.
Many experts fear that this meeting made epidemiological situation worse. Taking into account that Easter vigil in North Ossetia wasn't cancelled (unlike the vast majority of their Muslim neighbours, Ossetians are predominantly Orthodox Christians), the threat of outbreak in the republic is very high. Till that moment North Ossetia reported 120 cases and 7 deceased.
#protest #north_ossetia #corona
These meme guys from Ghana were invited to the local tv. Kinda funny, that their dj has chosen the Russian track Astronomia by Tony Igy (Anton Igumnov) from Rostov oblast.
#culture
#culture
Forwarded from Новости. Как есть
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Гробовщики из Ганы прикатили на местное ТВ, показали свой танец и дали интервью. Даже они в масках
A very short update on corona. Russian PM desided to cosplay Boris Johnson and fall ill. The number of cases reached 100k across the country.
Still, I'm kinda optimistic about corona rn. New cases rate is 7%, which is less, than before, while death rate is 1%, and I haven't noticed any serious attempts to falsify the statistics. The ministry of defence built 16 brand new hospitals in Russia to prevent the high pressure on the healthcare system, and already existed hospitals were expanded. In my opinion, eventual lifting of quarantine measures on 12-13 of May proposed by the govt is still an option.
My biggest concern is economic crisis, and I will talk about it later.
#corona
Still, I'm kinda optimistic about corona rn. New cases rate is 7%, which is less, than before, while death rate is 1%, and I haven't noticed any serious attempts to falsify the statistics. The ministry of defence built 16 brand new hospitals in Russia to prevent the high pressure on the healthcare system, and already existed hospitals were expanded. In my opinion, eventual lifting of quarantine measures on 12-13 of May proposed by the govt is still an option.
My biggest concern is economic crisis, and I will talk about it later.
#corona
Victory over death in all its forms. Russian military doctors are returning from Italy.
Speaking of Mozambique. The insurgency on the North started in 2017. When government forces were easilly defeated, Mozambique decided to hire foreign mercenaries. The main competitors were Russian "Wagner" and Hong-Kong based "Frontier services group", which belongs to Erick Prince (I think you know that name). Wagner's services turned out to be cheaper, and this company won the tender. First 200 Russian mercenaries arrived in Mozambique in October, 2019. Since then they lost at least 10 people and didn't achieve any significant gains. It seems that Cabo Delgado province will remain a hotbed for islamic radicals for some time.
#international #mozambique
https://t.iss.one/BellumActaNews/22528
#international #mozambique
https://t.iss.one/BellumActaNews/22528
Telegram
Bellum Acta - Intel, Urgent News and Archives | COVID Crisis Edition
NATO Conflict Observer:
— "Things still not going well in Cabo Delgado, with 2 Soldiers killed and a fresh Chinese Tiger 4x4 APC (Equipped with W85 HMG) captured by IS Central Africa.
I belive the first time I've seen one of these captured."
https://t…
— "Things still not going well in Cabo Delgado, with 2 Soldiers killed and a fresh Chinese Tiger 4x4 APC (Equipped with W85 HMG) captured by IS Central Africa.
I belive the first time I've seen one of these captured."
https://t…
The coronavirus death rate in Russia is 1%. It is low because of many reasons:
1. Soviet-style healthcare system with large amount of beds in clinics per population. As I've written before, new hospitals were built from scratch to tackle the virus.
2. Unfortunately, the lifespan of average Russian is pretty short, it lasts 73 years. The most vulnerable to coronavirus age group is just too small to increase national death rate significantly.
3. Russian statistics includes only those people who died because of coronavirus, and not those, who just had it. All deceased coronavirus patients' bodies pass screening to define the exact reason of death. Once again, such measures are possible because national healthcare system is not overloaded.
4. I must admit that the scale of testing (which was a problem in March) increased from rather humble beginnings. More than 6,1mln tests were made, and this number is rising. Broad screening detects all potential patients, even if they don't have symptoms, and this large group is taken as a base for death rate counting.
5. I've just read an article about Turkish experience, and people there claim that almost half of covid death cases in developed countries are linked with nursing houses for elder people, while in Turkey they are almost non-existent, that is why Turkey has low death rate. Same for Russia: nursing houses are very rare here. Elder people can be supported by the family, by the state or non-profit volunteers, or live alone until they can. If lonely elder people can't take care of themselves and can't get support, they die. I think it differs from muslim countries experience, but Russia is a tough country.
#corona
1. Soviet-style healthcare system with large amount of beds in clinics per population. As I've written before, new hospitals were built from scratch to tackle the virus.
2. Unfortunately, the lifespan of average Russian is pretty short, it lasts 73 years. The most vulnerable to coronavirus age group is just too small to increase national death rate significantly.
3. Russian statistics includes only those people who died because of coronavirus, and not those, who just had it. All deceased coronavirus patients' bodies pass screening to define the exact reason of death. Once again, such measures are possible because national healthcare system is not overloaded.
4. I must admit that the scale of testing (which was a problem in March) increased from rather humble beginnings. More than 6,1mln tests were made, and this number is rising. Broad screening detects all potential patients, even if they don't have symptoms, and this large group is taken as a base for death rate counting.
5. I've just read an article about Turkish experience, and people there claim that almost half of covid death cases in developed countries are linked with nursing houses for elder people, while in Turkey they are almost non-existent, that is why Turkey has low death rate. Same for Russia: nursing houses are very rare here. Elder people can be supported by the family, by the state or non-profit volunteers, or live alone until they can. If lonely elder people can't take care of themselves and can't get support, they die. I think it differs from muslim countries experience, but Russia is a tough country.
#corona
Long time ago one person asked me how did oil prices turn negative. I wrote an answer, adding some thoughts on the oil war and oil market in general.
https://telegra.ph/There-will-be-blood-04-20
#oil #oil_war
https://telegra.ph/There-will-be-blood-04-20
#oil #oil_war
Telegraph
There will be blood
Oil is the most important resource on our planet. Oil refined products are used by transport, in energy sector, a small share of oil is transformed into plastics. Very often, the so-called associated gas is extracted from oil, which also finds various uses.…