Short statistics review

A side note about nazism

Russian propaganda says Ukraine is a fascist state. The Ukrainians say the same about Russia. None of them right.

Ukraine is a national state of Ukrainians. Usually it's not a problem, but Ukrainian-speaking Ukrainians are a minority. Despite that fact they control the institutions and have international support while assimilating ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians. Obviously the discrimination of Russians causes problems within the country and negative reaction from Moscow. Still being a national (or even nationalist) state doesn't mean being a nazi one.

There are neo-nazis in Ukraine, but their role in society is to be a puppet of the elites. They serve in "Azov", "Aidar", "Kraken" and other military units. Before the active phase of war the neo-nazis and radical nationalists were involved in different criminal activities, like "protection" of small businesses, smuggling operations etc. These people are not in power and they will never be.

In fact Ukraine is the colony of western countries, ruled by the oligarchs. This construct has a typical facade of liberal democracy, market economy, tolerance towards LGBT, the desire to enter NATO and the EU. Guys from "Azov" can be against it, but nobody will let them to decide.

#war_in_ukraine

Sad news from the Black Sea fleet. The rescue ship "Vasiliy Beh" was hit by two missiles and sank. The crew was 33 people, number of casualties is unknown. It happened today at 4 a.m., when Bayraktar drone directed the fire of (most probably) Harpoon missiles.

I was waiting for official confirmation of the Russian MoD, but they are silent. Still the tg-authors linked with the Navy wrote about the disaster.

I've already written after the loss of "Moskva" cruiser that western satellites/drones and western missiles level Russian superiority in the sea. It seems one lesson wasn't enough to understand this.

UPD. The ship didn't sunk, but was heavilly damaged. I hope there won't be the need to write the second update.

#war_in_ukraine

Today I want to discuss Kaliningrad (Königsberg). The Russian enclave in the West faces blockade by Lithuania. What Lithuanians do is the implementation of European sanctions on transit from Russian mainland to Kaliningrad and vice-versa. Such limitations include construction materials, steel, some luxury products etc. In a whole sanctions cover up to 50% of the goods.

So far the situation looks like that:
1. Russian citizens can travel through Lithuania by transit train. Such travel requires an approval of Lithuania, it is given for free. These rules didn't change.
2. Russians can travel to Kaliningrad by car with standart Shengen visa. It is provided by Lithuanian side (not every country of Shengen zone gives visa to Russians now).
3. The planes from mainland fly over the neutral waters, because the flights over the EU airspace is forbidden for Russian air companies.
4. The ships from mainland also use neutral waters.
5. The land trade between Kaliningrad and other parts if Russia is severely limitied by Lithuania.

This new round of sanctions wasn't well prepared. Lithuanian side claims that they follow European instructions. The Euroberaucrats in Brussels say that European sanctions did not imply limitations for Kaliningrad, and they need some meetings with Lithuanians to form one opinion.
The position of Russia is clear: transit rules were defined in different papers accepted since 1991 and reshaped after the entrance of Lithuania in the EU. If Lithuania continues the blockade, Russia will get casus belli. Now the Kremlin has plans to turn off the Soviet energy lines from Russia to Lithuania which will make energy more expensive for Baltic countries.

The most radical members of Russian parliament issued a bill which denonces Russian recognition of Lithuanian independence and territorial integrity. It should be noted, that present-day borders of Lithuania were obtained after the implementation of Molotov-Ribbentrop pact (Vilnus is ex-Polish Wilno) and Potsdam agreements (Klaipeda is ex-German Memel). Russia as a successor of the USSR automatically became a guarantee of this territory. The bill is pending, and its chances to become the law are very low. Still Russia showed what legal and economic opportunities it has. Now the ball is on the European side.

#international #kaliningrad

Finland and Sweden in NATO. How bad is it?

First of all, despite all copium, the expansion of NATO is a negative factor for Russia. The Baltics turns into inner waters of NATO with small exceptions near Kaliningrad and Saint-Petersburg. The border between NATO and Russia grows twice. Finnish army considers Russia as a probable adversary, and their build up is directed against us.

As for positive factors, the biggest part of the Finnish-Russian border lies in rugged terrain, and the most obvious directions of attack are protected well.

Now the question is what will NATO deploy on Finnish/Swedish territory. If there will be anti-ship missile complexes (and I'm pretty sure it's the case) the Baltic fleet will be as defenseless as the Black sea fleet. The possible arrival of one or two brigades won't make much difference.

The Russian MoD declared some measures against NATO expansion. As far as I understood, there will be new military units on the Finnish border, and for now that's it.

#international #finland #sweden

I was waiting for the confirmation for a time, and now I can say that ex-Lugansk oblast is now under Russian control. The LPR got 100% of the territory it claimed in 2014.

Severodonetsk and Lisichansk suffered a lot, but in comparisson with Mariupol the damage is not that serious. The biggest chunk of Lugansk oblast was taken by the Russian troops within first weeks of March. All of this gives me a hope that Lugansk republican structures will organize peaceful life in the region soon.

#war_in_ukraine

Map by @zastavnyii

This week I was in Siberia and didn't follow the news thoroughly. Meanwhile some "coverage-demanding" events took place.

Shinzo Abe was assasinated. He wasn't a prime minister of Japan at the moment, but his influence on Liberal-Democratic party of Japan (ruling party for dozens of years (Japanese democracy, nothing to see here, keep moving) was rather significant.

For Russia it's slightly bad news, because Mr. Abe was the most pro-Russian prime minister of Japan possible. It's not that hard to achieve, because our relations with Japan are complicated, but he really tried to sign a peace treaty with Russia, urged Japanese business to invest more in Russian economy. Recently he claimed that Zelensky has his share of responsibility in escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. Still it should be noted that all attempts of Shinzo Abe to improve relations with Russia failed.

It's not that surprising, because in recent 200 years we had many conflicts. In XIXc-XXc Japanese and Russian empires were rivals, who tried to control as many Chinese and Korean territories, as possible. These contradictions led to Russo-Japanese war 1904-1905, which was lost by Russia. Southern part of Sakhalin island and whole Kuril archipelago became Japanese territories. After the October revolution in Russia the Allies, including Japan, organized military intervention in Russian Civil war. The Japanese expeditionary forces were trying to annex occupied territories in the Russian Far East, including Vladivostok. They failed, although the Japanese army was the last to leave Russia. So the bolsheviks didn't like the Japanese much, too.

Finally, after the WWII the USSR and Japan got territorial dispute which has not been resolved today: after capitulation Japan accepted the loss of Sakhalin island and the Kuril islands. The problem is some Kuril islands belong to Hokkaido province, and Japanese believe that these islands are "occupied" by Russia. Till now Russia and Japan didn't sign a peace treaty after the WWII. According to Moscow declaration (1956) Russia must return two islands to Japan after signing a peace treaty, but the Japanese want all four disputed islands.

Many tried to to resolve this issue, but only small progress was achieved. The Japanese got visa-free entry to the disputed islands (1991), Russia promised to facilitate the visits of those Japanese who lived on the disputed territories before the end of the WWII (1999), there was an agreement about Russo-Japanese economic cooperation on the islands, but all these initiatives were cancelled this spring. Now we are at the lowest point in our relatitions, and death of Mr. Abe may deepen the divide further.

#international #japan

Since 1945 the whole chain belongs to Russia. The US doesn't recongnize it, other countries de-facto do

An extraordinary meeting of the State Duma has been scheduled for July 15. A number of telegram channels began to speculate that the meeting concerns Ukraine. Perhaps we are talking about the formal declaration of war. The agenda for this meeting was supposed to appear today, and it happened. The text begins with rather innocent-looking paragraph 2, devoted to trade regulations. This means that paragraph 1, the most important topic, has been removed for reasons of secrecy.

Well, we live in unpredictable times, so everything is possible. Although the formal declaration of war won't change the situation on the frontlines, since the hot phase of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is already going. If it happens, we see the prologue of national mobilization.

If this parliament meeting is about Ukraine, it could concentrate on referendums in Kherson oblast and parts of Kharkov/Zaporozhye oblasts under Russian control. Also LPR can join Russia directly.

Or maybe nothing big will happen at all.

#war_in_ukraine

For good or for bad, nothing life-changing happened. Some appointments in the govt were approved, new bills concerning economy were introduced, also some formalities were polished.

Meanwhile Russian producers make Twix replacement with Lynch reference. What a time to be alive.

#импортозамещение

Today Russia and Ukraine agreed on the export of Ukrainian grain from three Black Sea ports. The UN and Turkey acted as mediators. I have not seen the text of the document, but the following export scheme is known:
1. Turkey and Ukraine will create corridors in minefields.
2. These corridors are for grain ships only.
3. Grain carriers will be escorted by Russian and Turkish warships.

These points leave at least two questions:
1. Who will inspect the ships and how? Many other cargoes can be carried along with grain.
2. How will hostilities in southern Ukraine be regulated? For example, a few weeks ago, Russia left Snake Island, now it is no man's land. Did Russia promised not to return there? Even more interesting is what will happen to the agreements if Ukraine tries to capture Kherson or Russia starts a campaign to take Nikolaev.

In general, Russia's position on Ukrainian grain looks soft. We are absolutely not obliged to help our enemy to export anything, especially since Russia is under sanctions and our export is difficult.

#grain #war_in_ukraine #international

Rather interesting takes by anti-Russian bloger. I believe most of the points can be understood in a completely opposite manner.
1. "Legitimacy." Sounds cool, means nothing.
2. "Removing the sanctions on Russian fertilizers." It is promised by the UN, which means nothing, the member-states can think differently. The obligations of the UN are written in memorandum. My advice: if you see "memorandum" or "declaration of intent", don't rely on that stuff much.
3, 5. "Russia can check ships, blockade continues." Yesterday it was full blockade, today it's partial blockade. I see an improvement for the Ukrainian side.
4. "Russia plays the role of Mother Teresa."Just as legitimacy, sounds cool, means nothing. The image of the country depends on the western media. If Russia does smth kind, they won't tell, and vice-versa. Maybe many years later, when everything would be history, they'll write smth more objective. Mother Teresa herself is a very good example of that: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/27/world/asia/mother-teresa-critic.html
6. "Russia will take Odessa and the agreement is over". What I see is Russia promised not to attack Odessa oblast for 120 days. That's a lot, now it's 148th day of Special Military Operation. So the timing doubled, then. I don't care much about the speed anymore, but now Ukrainian troops in Odessa can be sent to the frontlines or (who knows) attack Transnistria.

By writing all of this I want to show you that the grain deal gives Russia certain opportunities, and, at the same time, it creates new threats. The outcome depends on the Russian diplomats and the military. I hope they will use the deal to our advantage.

#war_in_ukraine #grain

Speaking of Serbia and Kosovo. One can say Russia needs conflicts everywhere, because they distract the West from Ukraine, our prime target. Maybe in some cases it is true, but not on the Balkans. If Russia is really interested in any conflict there, it must be a conflict where Serbia wins. Now it's impossible, so it's much better to keep things calm there.

Serbia is the most pro-Russian country in the world. Apart from historical dimension, the friendship has practical aspect. We give them cheap oil and gas, they support us politically. Since 2014 Serbia didn't implement anti-Russian sanctions and became a safe haven for Russian capital. Now their role as a financial intermediary is crucial, because many Russian banks can't operate in the western countries anymore. Also Serbia kept air connection with Russia and turned into the gate to Europe for many Russian citizens.

In hypothetic war against Albanians Serbian troops will face NATO forces right from the start. Then landlocked Serbia will get the blockade followed by the military defeat and regime change. Today it's the only scenario, so we should wait.

#international #serbia

When Russia signed "The Grain Deal" the EU allowed normal cargo transit between Kaliningrad oblast and mainland Russia. Officially these two things are not connected, it just happened on the same day, but many people believe in Russia-West shadow deals. Maybe they are real, maybe not. Anyway, it didn't last long. This time the Lithuanian bank which accepts transit fees from Russian railways refuses to continue. If nothing happens, the railroad transit will be stopped on the 1st of September.

I expected smth like this, that's why I didn't write about the renewal of transit and "great Russian diplomatic victory". For now the best way to deal with the West is shown by Gazprom. They diminished the supply of gas to Europe by 80% and demand the delievery of western equipment. Europe has already agreed to send the needed turbine, thus adding some exceptions to sanctions. Now Gazprom wants guarantees that these exceptions will be permanent. In my opinion Russian railways may remember that Lithuanians (and Europeans in general) use Russian transit to trade with Asian countries. It would be a shame if smth happened to it.

#international #kaliningrad

Drone and missile attacks on military objects in Crimea became a routine.

The first attack on the Black sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol was made by a small civil drone with a grenade on 31st of July, the day of the Russian Navy. It's a miracle that nobody died, although 6 people got hurt. The annual naval parade was cancelled this time.

Today the fleet HQ was attacked again, with Ukrainian drone PD-1 (as @rybar speculates), which has 450km range. Russian sailors shot it down with assault rifles, it fall on the roof. This case shows that drone protection measures are not implemented yet.

Meanwhile other military and infrastructure objects are under attack, too. Yesterday Russian anti-air shot down drones near the Crimean bridge and city of Kerch. For two days in a row Russian anti-air succesfully shoots down Ukrainian missiles near the city of Yevpatoria. Also Ukrainians tried to bomb the airfield of Belbek near Sevastopol. Today some drones were shot down above the village of Olenevka in the West of Crimea.

Djankoy district in the North of peninsula suffered from sabotage acts. On 16th of August ammunition depot was blown up. It is unknown whether it happened due drone attack or smth else. The explosion damaged the electricity plant and a railroad nearby. The fire on electricity plant can be a separate act of sabotage, it's under investigation now.

The most successful Ukrainian attack on Crimea happened on 10th of August, when (most probably) missile strikes hit Russian military airfield in the district of Saki. According to the official information, one person died. American satellites photos show that Russia lost 7 planes.

Some conclusions.
1. The buffer zone between Crimea and the frontlines is too small to prevent Ukraine from missile attacks.
2. Ukrainians have diversionists in Crimea, who use small drones.
3. The Black Sea Fleet HQ is not equipped with drone protection despite two attacks on its building.
4. Russian anti-air defense is mostly successful.

It should be noted that Crimea is one of the most significant summer resorts in Russia. In June it was visited by 815k tourists, which 40% less than in June 2021. This decline was caused by civil flights ban and geographical proximity to the frontlines.

#war_in_ukraine #crimea #sevastopol