The ruble. Why is it so high? Is the exchange rate real?
It's rather complicated topic, so let's start with the first question. The currency exchange rate depends on supply/demand law. Despite sanctions, Russia sells oil, gas and other goods on international market. Ironically the sanctions made the commodities much more expensive than in the previous year, so Russian companies earn a lot of dollars. Here is the trick: such companies were oblidged to sell 80% (now 50%) of their dollar revenue and get rubles instead.
What about the demand of dollars? Due to sanctions Russia can't import cars, trains, industrial equipment, luxury goods, advanced chemicals, microelectronics, so Russian companies can't buy a lot of foreign goods. Also the central bank issued the limitations for money transfer abroad. Therefore the demand of dollars (for now) is not very high.
The second question — is the currency exchange real? Can I buy 1$ for 61₽? The answer is "almost yes", but it's not that easy.
You can buy dollars in electronic form everywhere. The real exchange rate is usually 7₽ higher than official one. So it's lower than it was before the war. The question is what can you do with such dollars? Visa and MasterCard left Russian market, so you can't travel abroad and pay with your card. Same with international marketplaces like eBay or Aliexpress. The Russian system "Mir' is not widely accepted in the world (despite its name, lol. Mir actually means the world). In Belarus, Armenia, Uzbekistan it's not a problem to find a place where you can pay with Mir card. In Turkey it's much harder, in Vietnam it's almost non-existent today.
The import of dollar, euro, yen notes is forbidden by Western authorities for Russian banks and other companies. The banks still sell cash, but it will take time to find notes. For now it's not a big problem, but I don't know how the situation will develop. The black market is not huge (yet?), the prices there are much higher than official currency exchange rate.
So it goes.
#economy
It's rather complicated topic, so let's start with the first question. The currency exchange rate depends on supply/demand law. Despite sanctions, Russia sells oil, gas and other goods on international market. Ironically the sanctions made the commodities much more expensive than in the previous year, so Russian companies earn a lot of dollars. Here is the trick: such companies were oblidged to sell 80% (now 50%) of their dollar revenue and get rubles instead.
What about the demand of dollars? Due to sanctions Russia can't import cars, trains, industrial equipment, luxury goods, advanced chemicals, microelectronics, so Russian companies can't buy a lot of foreign goods. Also the central bank issued the limitations for money transfer abroad. Therefore the demand of dollars (for now) is not very high.
The second question — is the currency exchange real? Can I buy 1$ for 61₽? The answer is "almost yes", but it's not that easy.
You can buy dollars in electronic form everywhere. The real exchange rate is usually 7₽ higher than official one. So it's lower than it was before the war. The question is what can you do with such dollars? Visa and MasterCard left Russian market, so you can't travel abroad and pay with your card. Same with international marketplaces like eBay or Aliexpress. The Russian system "Mir' is not widely accepted in the world (despite its name, lol. Mir actually means the world). In Belarus, Armenia, Uzbekistan it's not a problem to find a place where you can pay with Mir card. In Turkey it's much harder, in Vietnam it's almost non-existent today.
The import of dollar, euro, yen notes is forbidden by Western authorities for Russian banks and other companies. The banks still sell cash, but it will take time to find notes. For now it's not a big problem, but I don't know how the situation will develop. The black market is not huge (yet?), the prices there are much higher than official currency exchange rate.
So it goes.
#economy
Yesterday Kadyrov said that Russian troops liberated Severodonetsk. Just like it was with Mariupol, it's true in part. The living quarters of Severodonetsk are under Russian control, but the industrial zone of the city is in Ukrainian hands. Also it should be noted, that the Ukrainians retreated to Lisichansk, the neighbouring city. That means the Russians control 50% of Lisichansk-Severodonetsk agglomeration.
Such agglomerations are typical for Donbass. Lisichansk was founded in the beginning of the XVIIIc, which makes it the oldest city in Donbass area. Its foundation was linked to coal mining, in this case stimulated by Peter I. Even after 300 years Lisichansk has operating coal mines in vicinity. The city was growing and getting new industrial plants during XVIIIc-XXc.
In 1934 the Soviet govt built a huge chemical facility near Lisichansk, called "Azot", and the new city of Severodonetsk for "Azot" workers appeared on the map. Eventually Severodonetsk became a bit bigger than Lisichansk (109k vs. 103k in 2021).
The Donbass rebellion in 2014 caused by discrimination of ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians turned the agglomeration into the battlefield. The fighting lasted from May to July, when the pro-Russian militia lost to Ukrainian regular army and retreated. Now the wheel of history made its full circle.
#war_in_ukraine
Such agglomerations are typical for Donbass. Lisichansk was founded in the beginning of the XVIIIc, which makes it the oldest city in Donbass area. Its foundation was linked to coal mining, in this case stimulated by Peter I. Even after 300 years Lisichansk has operating coal mines in vicinity. The city was growing and getting new industrial plants during XVIIIc-XXc.
In 1934 the Soviet govt built a huge chemical facility near Lisichansk, called "Azot", and the new city of Severodonetsk for "Azot" workers appeared on the map. Eventually Severodonetsk became a bit bigger than Lisichansk (109k vs. 103k in 2021).
The Donbass rebellion in 2014 caused by discrimination of ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians turned the agglomeration into the battlefield. The fighting lasted from May to July, when the pro-Russian militia lost to Ukrainian regular army and retreated. Now the wheel of history made its full circle.
#war_in_ukraine
100 days of war
All experts expected two things.
First, Russian army must have defeated Ukraine quickly. Maybe in a week, maybe in two weeks. Then Special military operation should have turned into police operation with detention of Ukrainian nationalists and establishment of the pro-Russian govt.
Second, Russian economy should have collapsed under western sanctions. That collapse must have lead to ethnic separatism and regime change.
As you can see, nothing of this happened. The Russian army advances, but in a very slow manner, and the Ukrainian army is far from the complete defeat. As for Russian economy, obviously it was hit hard, but the strike wasn't a deadly one.
Instead of a short campaign Russia got the war. This situation has its pros and cons. The latter are evident: we lose people, we lose money. Also I believe many expected more from the Russian army and now it lost its prestige. That can cause other problems. For example in 1939-1940 the Soviet army showed rather poor performance in war against the Finns. The Germans analyzed the Winter war and became sure they would defeat the USSR with ease. Turned out they were wrong, but the Soviets lost a lot of people anyway.
What about the good side of the war? Putin wanted to control Ukraine through loyal local politicians. That is a way to nowhere. If we had taken Kiev we would have got corrupted Ukrainians in charge, soft derussification instead of hard one, billions of dollars spent on "good Ukrainians" etc. The end would have been rather predictable, too: the pro-western revolution and escape from Russia.
Here I'm glad Putin's plans failed and he has to integrate former Ukrainian territories. There are a lot of risks in this scenario, but here we have at least slim chance to expand Russian territory and save ethnic Russians.
#war_in_ukraine
All experts expected two things.
First, Russian army must have defeated Ukraine quickly. Maybe in a week, maybe in two weeks. Then Special military operation should have turned into police operation with detention of Ukrainian nationalists and establishment of the pro-Russian govt.
Second, Russian economy should have collapsed under western sanctions. That collapse must have lead to ethnic separatism and regime change.
As you can see, nothing of this happened. The Russian army advances, but in a very slow manner, and the Ukrainian army is far from the complete defeat. As for Russian economy, obviously it was hit hard, but the strike wasn't a deadly one.
Instead of a short campaign Russia got the war. This situation has its pros and cons. The latter are evident: we lose people, we lose money. Also I believe many expected more from the Russian army and now it lost its prestige. That can cause other problems. For example in 1939-1940 the Soviet army showed rather poor performance in war against the Finns. The Germans analyzed the Winter war and became sure they would defeat the USSR with ease. Turned out they were wrong, but the Soviets lost a lot of people anyway.
What about the good side of the war? Putin wanted to control Ukraine through loyal local politicians. That is a way to nowhere. If we had taken Kiev we would have got corrupted Ukrainians in charge, soft derussification instead of hard one, billions of dollars spent on "good Ukrainians" etc. The end would have been rather predictable, too: the pro-western revolution and escape from Russia.
Here I'm glad Putin's plans failed and he has to integrate former Ukrainian territories. There are a lot of risks in this scenario, but here we have at least slim chance to expand Russian territory and save ethnic Russians.
#war_in_ukraine
👍4🤔2
Grain
Russia and Ukraine are among the leading producers of grain. They have 29% of the market combined. The war inevitably affected the prices in a bad way. Any talks about hunger are overestimation, but many African and Middle East countries rely either on imports from Russia or Ukraine (or both), so food inflation hits them hard.
There is no way any other country can substitute Russian + Ukrainian exports. French farmers face the heat, which destroyed approximately 5% of their grain harvest. India limits grain export. Under such conditions different politicians seek the solution to the problem.
Let's look on the situation more closely. Russia has grain, ironically, the harvest is better than in previous year. Unfortunately Russia is under severe sanctions. The Russian banking system is almost isolated, so it's hard to pay for its goods. Russian ships are not allowed into Western ports, while Western ships are not allowed to drop the anchor in Russia. All these sanctions are implemented by the West, Russia is fine to have foreign ships in its ports.
Ukraine suffers from war. Part of the harvest was burnt, the transport system of the country works at full capacity in interests of the military. The sea ports of Ukraine are either captured by Russia (Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol, Kherson) or blocked by the Ukrainian mine fields (Odessa, Nikolaev).
Possible solutions:
1. The world forgets about Russia and tries to take out the grain at least from Ukraine by railroads. Such move will either disrupt the supply lines of Ukrainian troops or won't be efficient. There were talks about Belarus transit, and Putin approved them. But Putin's approval made this scheme inapropriate politically for many decision-makers, so the initiative was burried.
2. Russia promises not to attack Ukrainian ports, Ukrainians clear their mines and ships take Ukrainian grain. Recent talks in Istanbul were revolving around this idea. For a time it seemed the Ukrainians would get Turkish guarantees and agree, but the negotiations didn't reach their goal yet. Ukrainians don't believe in Russian good will and they refusee to put their shores in danger of invasion.
3. The most radical proposals were made by the UN officials. They desire to lift a part of sanctions from Russia and Belarus to normalize the international trade. Sounds cool, but obviously it's unbelievable someone will do so.
Since diplomatic initiatives look unrealistic I think Europe will eventually transfer the Ukrainian grain on its territory and resell it. Of course this procedure implies additional costs, so the prices stay high. As for Russian grain, in part it will be transported to the buyers by Russian ships. Russia lacks huge trade fleet (it almost non-existent), and most probably we will see the operations we got used to see with oil: ships with turned off transponders, intermediaries on the black market etc. Yes, you got it right. I don't see any way the prices on grain will fall.
#economy #war_in_ukraine #grain
Russia and Ukraine are among the leading producers of grain. They have 29% of the market combined. The war inevitably affected the prices in a bad way. Any talks about hunger are overestimation, but many African and Middle East countries rely either on imports from Russia or Ukraine (or both), so food inflation hits them hard.
There is no way any other country can substitute Russian + Ukrainian exports. French farmers face the heat, which destroyed approximately 5% of their grain harvest. India limits grain export. Under such conditions different politicians seek the solution to the problem.
Let's look on the situation more closely. Russia has grain, ironically, the harvest is better than in previous year. Unfortunately Russia is under severe sanctions. The Russian banking system is almost isolated, so it's hard to pay for its goods. Russian ships are not allowed into Western ports, while Western ships are not allowed to drop the anchor in Russia. All these sanctions are implemented by the West, Russia is fine to have foreign ships in its ports.
Ukraine suffers from war. Part of the harvest was burnt, the transport system of the country works at full capacity in interests of the military. The sea ports of Ukraine are either captured by Russia (Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol, Kherson) or blocked by the Ukrainian mine fields (Odessa, Nikolaev).
Possible solutions:
1. The world forgets about Russia and tries to take out the grain at least from Ukraine by railroads. Such move will either disrupt the supply lines of Ukrainian troops or won't be efficient. There were talks about Belarus transit, and Putin approved them. But Putin's approval made this scheme inapropriate politically for many decision-makers, so the initiative was burried.
2. Russia promises not to attack Ukrainian ports, Ukrainians clear their mines and ships take Ukrainian grain. Recent talks in Istanbul were revolving around this idea. For a time it seemed the Ukrainians would get Turkish guarantees and agree, but the negotiations didn't reach their goal yet. Ukrainians don't believe in Russian good will and they refusee to put their shores in danger of invasion.
3. The most radical proposals were made by the UN officials. They desire to lift a part of sanctions from Russia and Belarus to normalize the international trade. Sounds cool, but obviously it's unbelievable someone will do so.
Since diplomatic initiatives look unrealistic I think Europe will eventually transfer the Ukrainian grain on its territory and resell it. Of course this procedure implies additional costs, so the prices stay high. As for Russian grain, in part it will be transported to the buyers by Russian ships. Russia lacks huge trade fleet (it almost non-existent), and most probably we will see the operations we got used to see with oil: ships with turned off transponders, intermediaries on the black market etc. Yes, you got it right. I don't see any way the prices on grain will fall.
#economy #war_in_ukraine #grain
A side note about nazism
Russian propaganda says Ukraine is a fascist state. The Ukrainians say the same about Russia. None of them right.
Ukraine is a national state of Ukrainians. Usually it's not a problem, but Ukrainian-speaking Ukrainians are a minority. Despite that fact they control the institutions and have international support while assimilating ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians. Obviously the discrimination of Russians causes problems within the country and negative reaction from Moscow. Still being a national (or even nationalist) state doesn't mean being a nazi one.
There are neo-nazis in Ukraine, but their role in society is to be a puppet of the elites. They serve in "Azov", "Aidar", "Kraken" and other military units. Before the active phase of war the neo-nazis and radical nationalists were involved in different criminal activities, like "protection" of small businesses, smuggling operations etc. These people are not in power and they will never be.
In fact Ukraine is the colony of western countries, ruled by the oligarchs. This construct has a typical facade of liberal democracy, market economy, tolerance towards LGBT, the desire to enter NATO and the EU. Guys from "Azov" can be against it, but nobody will let them to decide.
#war_in_ukraine
Russian propaganda says Ukraine is a fascist state. The Ukrainians say the same about Russia. None of them right.
Ukraine is a national state of Ukrainians. Usually it's not a problem, but Ukrainian-speaking Ukrainians are a minority. Despite that fact they control the institutions and have international support while assimilating ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians. Obviously the discrimination of Russians causes problems within the country and negative reaction from Moscow. Still being a national (or even nationalist) state doesn't mean being a nazi one.
There are neo-nazis in Ukraine, but their role in society is to be a puppet of the elites. They serve in "Azov", "Aidar", "Kraken" and other military units. Before the active phase of war the neo-nazis and radical nationalists were involved in different criminal activities, like "protection" of small businesses, smuggling operations etc. These people are not in power and they will never be.
In fact Ukraine is the colony of western countries, ruled by the oligarchs. This construct has a typical facade of liberal democracy, market economy, tolerance towards LGBT, the desire to enter NATO and the EU. Guys from "Azov" can be against it, but nobody will let them to decide.
#war_in_ukraine
👍2
Sad news from the Black Sea fleet. The rescue ship "Vasiliy Beh" was hit by two missiles and sank. The crew was 33 people, number of casualties is unknown. It happened today at 4 a.m., when Bayraktar drone directed the fire of (most probably) Harpoon missiles.
I was waiting for official confirmation of the Russian MoD, but they are silent. Still the tg-authors linked with the Navy wrote about the disaster.
I've already written after the loss of "Moskva" cruiser that western satellites/drones and western missiles level Russian superiority in the sea. It seems one lesson wasn't enough to understand this.
UPD. The ship didn't sunk, but was heavilly damaged. I hope there won't be the need to write the second update.
#war_in_ukraine
I was waiting for official confirmation of the Russian MoD, but they are silent. Still the tg-authors linked with the Navy wrote about the disaster.
I've already written after the loss of "Moskva" cruiser that western satellites/drones and western missiles level Russian superiority in the sea. It seems one lesson wasn't enough to understand this.
UPD. The ship didn't sunk, but was heavilly damaged. I hope there won't be the need to write the second update.
#war_in_ukraine
Some of my subscribers asked for this. As you know, McDonalds left Russian market. One of the franchise owners, Aleksander Govor, decided to buy the chain. He lost the right to use McDonalds brand, and the new name spotted: "Vkusno — i tochka", which roughly can be translated as "Tasty, that's it". Probably the name is temporary, but the first dozen of ex-McDonalds spots was opened in Moscow on 12th of June under this brand already, and other 830+ Russian restaraunts will be opened soon.
Yesterday I made a visit to a legendary place on Pushkinskaya square, where the first Soviet McDonalds was opened in 1990. Well, I can't say much about my tour, because in general nothing changed. Same burgers under different names, the only loss I noticed was Big Tasty. That is my favourite, now I don't know how I'll live without it. On the pic you see Russian analogues of Fillet-O-Fish, Big Mac and nuggets.
UPD: Big Tasty will return soon, the owner claimed
#импортозамещение
Yesterday I made a visit to a legendary place on Pushkinskaya square, where the first Soviet McDonalds was opened in 1990. Well, I can't say much about my tour, because in general nothing changed. Same burgers under different names, the only loss I noticed was Big Tasty. That is my favourite, now I don't know how I'll live without it. On the pic you see Russian analogues of Fillet-O-Fish, Big Mac and nuggets.
UPD: Big Tasty will return soon, the owner claimed
#импортозамещение
👍2
Today I want to discuss Kaliningrad (Königsberg). The Russian enclave in the West faces blockade by Lithuania. What Lithuanians do is the implementation of European sanctions on transit from Russian mainland to Kaliningrad and vice-versa. Such limitations include construction materials, steel, some luxury products etc. In a whole sanctions cover up to 50% of the goods.
So far the situation looks like that:
1. Russian citizens can travel through Lithuania by transit train. Such travel requires an approval of Lithuania, it is given for free. These rules didn't change.
2. Russians can travel to Kaliningrad by car with standart Shengen visa. It is provided by Lithuanian side (not every country of Shengen zone gives visa to Russians now).
3. The planes from mainland fly over the neutral waters, because the flights over the EU airspace is forbidden for Russian air companies.
4. The ships from mainland also use neutral waters.
5. The land trade between Kaliningrad and other parts if Russia is severely limitied by Lithuania.
This new round of sanctions wasn't well prepared. Lithuanian side claims that they follow European instructions. The Euroberaucrats in Brussels say that European sanctions did not imply limitations for Kaliningrad, and they need some meetings with Lithuanians to form one opinion.
The position of Russia is clear: transit rules were defined in different papers accepted since 1991 and reshaped after the entrance of Lithuania in the EU. If Lithuania continues the blockade, Russia will get casus belli. Now the Kremlin has plans to turn off the Soviet energy lines from Russia to Lithuania which will make energy more expensive for Baltic countries.
The most radical members of Russian parliament issued a bill which denonces Russian recognition of Lithuanian independence and territorial integrity. It should be noted, that present-day borders of Lithuania were obtained after the implementation of Molotov-Ribbentrop pact (Vilnus is ex-Polish Wilno) and Potsdam agreements (Klaipeda is ex-German Memel). Russia as a successor of the USSR automatically became a guarantee of this territory. The bill is pending, and its chances to become the law are very low. Still Russia showed what legal and economic opportunities it has. Now the ball is on the European side.
#international #kaliningrad
So far the situation looks like that:
1. Russian citizens can travel through Lithuania by transit train. Such travel requires an approval of Lithuania, it is given for free. These rules didn't change.
2. Russians can travel to Kaliningrad by car with standart Shengen visa. It is provided by Lithuanian side (not every country of Shengen zone gives visa to Russians now).
3. The planes from mainland fly over the neutral waters, because the flights over the EU airspace is forbidden for Russian air companies.
4. The ships from mainland also use neutral waters.
5. The land trade between Kaliningrad and other parts if Russia is severely limitied by Lithuania.
This new round of sanctions wasn't well prepared. Lithuanian side claims that they follow European instructions. The Euroberaucrats in Brussels say that European sanctions did not imply limitations for Kaliningrad, and they need some meetings with Lithuanians to form one opinion.
The position of Russia is clear: transit rules were defined in different papers accepted since 1991 and reshaped after the entrance of Lithuania in the EU. If Lithuania continues the blockade, Russia will get casus belli. Now the Kremlin has plans to turn off the Soviet energy lines from Russia to Lithuania which will make energy more expensive for Baltic countries.
The most radical members of Russian parliament issued a bill which denonces Russian recognition of Lithuanian independence and territorial integrity. It should be noted, that present-day borders of Lithuania were obtained after the implementation of Molotov-Ribbentrop pact (Vilnus is ex-Polish Wilno) and Potsdam agreements (Klaipeda is ex-German Memel). Russia as a successor of the USSR automatically became a guarantee of this territory. The bill is pending, and its chances to become the law are very low. Still Russia showed what legal and economic opportunities it has. Now the ball is on the European side.
#international #kaliningrad
I was in Kaliningrad oblast in 2021, first time in my life. Unfortunately the Königsberg city centre was destroyed during WWII, still the region keeps a lot of German heritage on its territory. The most evident representative is the cathedral building, where Kant was buried.
Finland and Sweden in NATO. How bad is it?
First of all, despite all copium, the expansion of NATO is a negative factor for Russia. The Baltics turns into inner waters of NATO with small exceptions near Kaliningrad and Saint-Petersburg. The border between NATO and Russia grows twice. Finnish army considers Russia as a probable adversary, and their build up is directed against us.
As for positive factors, the biggest part of the Finnish-Russian border lies in rugged terrain, and the most obvious directions of attack are protected well.
Now the question is what will NATO deploy on Finnish/Swedish territory. If there will be anti-ship missile complexes (and I'm pretty sure it's the case) the Baltic fleet will be as defenseless as the Black sea fleet. The possible arrival of one or two brigades won't make much difference.
The Russian MoD declared some measures against NATO expansion. As far as I understood, there will be new military units on the Finnish border, and for now that's it.
#international #finland #sweden
First of all, despite all copium, the expansion of NATO is a negative factor for Russia. The Baltics turns into inner waters of NATO with small exceptions near Kaliningrad and Saint-Petersburg. The border between NATO and Russia grows twice. Finnish army considers Russia as a probable adversary, and their build up is directed against us.
As for positive factors, the biggest part of the Finnish-Russian border lies in rugged terrain, and the most obvious directions of attack are protected well.
Now the question is what will NATO deploy on Finnish/Swedish territory. If there will be anti-ship missile complexes (and I'm pretty sure it's the case) the Baltic fleet will be as defenseless as the Black sea fleet. The possible arrival of one or two brigades won't make much difference.
The Russian MoD declared some measures against NATO expansion. As far as I understood, there will be new military units on the Finnish border, and for now that's it.
#international #finland #sweden
I was waiting for the confirmation for a time, and now I can say that ex-Lugansk oblast is now under Russian control. The LPR got 100% of the territory it claimed in 2014.
Severodonetsk and Lisichansk suffered a lot, but in comparisson with Mariupol the damage is not that serious. The biggest chunk of Lugansk oblast was taken by the Russian troops within first weeks of March. All of this gives me a hope that Lugansk republican structures will organize peaceful life in the region soon.
#war_in_ukraine
Severodonetsk and Lisichansk suffered a lot, but in comparisson with Mariupol the damage is not that serious. The biggest chunk of Lugansk oblast was taken by the Russian troops within first weeks of March. All of this gives me a hope that Lugansk republican structures will organize peaceful life in the region soon.
#war_in_ukraine
This week I was in Siberia and didn't follow the news thoroughly. Meanwhile some "coverage-demanding" events took place.
Shinzo Abe was assasinated. He wasn't a prime minister of Japan at the moment, but his influence on Liberal-Democratic party of Japan (ruling party for dozens of years (Japanese democracy, nothing to see here, keep moving) was rather significant.
For Russia it's slightly bad news, because Mr. Abe was the most pro-Russian prime minister of Japan possible. It's not that hard to achieve, because our relations with Japan are complicated, but he really tried to sign a peace treaty with Russia, urged Japanese business to invest more in Russian economy. Recently he claimed that Zelensky has his share of responsibility in escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. Still it should be noted that all attempts of Shinzo Abe to improve relations with Russia failed.
It's not that surprising, because in recent 200 years we had many conflicts. In XIXc-XXc Japanese and Russian empires were rivals, who tried to control as many Chinese and Korean territories, as possible. These contradictions led to Russo-Japanese war 1904-1905, which was lost by Russia. Southern part of Sakhalin island and whole Kuril archipelago became Japanese territories. After the October revolution in Russia the Allies, including Japan, organized military intervention in Russian Civil war. The Japanese expeditionary forces were trying to annex occupied territories in the Russian Far East, including Vladivostok. They failed, although the Japanese army was the last to leave Russia. So the bolsheviks didn't like the Japanese much, too.
Finally, after the WWII the USSR and Japan got territorial dispute which has not been resolved today: after capitulation Japan accepted the loss of Sakhalin island and the Kuril islands. The problem is some Kuril islands belong to Hokkaido province, and Japanese believe that these islands are "occupied" by Russia. Till now Russia and Japan didn't sign a peace treaty after the WWII. According to Moscow declaration (1956) Russia must return two islands to Japan after signing a peace treaty, but the Japanese want all four disputed islands.
Many tried to to resolve this issue, but only small progress was achieved. The Japanese got visa-free entry to the disputed islands (1991), Russia promised to facilitate the visits of those Japanese who lived on the disputed territories before the end of the WWII (1999), there was an agreement about Russo-Japanese economic cooperation on the islands, but all these initiatives were cancelled this spring. Now we are at the lowest point in our relatitions, and death of Mr. Abe may deepen the divide further.
#international #japan
Shinzo Abe was assasinated. He wasn't a prime minister of Japan at the moment, but his influence on Liberal-Democratic party of Japan (ruling party for dozens of years (Japanese democracy, nothing to see here, keep moving) was rather significant.
For Russia it's slightly bad news, because Mr. Abe was the most pro-Russian prime minister of Japan possible. It's not that hard to achieve, because our relations with Japan are complicated, but he really tried to sign a peace treaty with Russia, urged Japanese business to invest more in Russian economy. Recently he claimed that Zelensky has his share of responsibility in escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. Still it should be noted that all attempts of Shinzo Abe to improve relations with Russia failed.
It's not that surprising, because in recent 200 years we had many conflicts. In XIXc-XXc Japanese and Russian empires were rivals, who tried to control as many Chinese and Korean territories, as possible. These contradictions led to Russo-Japanese war 1904-1905, which was lost by Russia. Southern part of Sakhalin island and whole Kuril archipelago became Japanese territories. After the October revolution in Russia the Allies, including Japan, organized military intervention in Russian Civil war. The Japanese expeditionary forces were trying to annex occupied territories in the Russian Far East, including Vladivostok. They failed, although the Japanese army was the last to leave Russia. So the bolsheviks didn't like the Japanese much, too.
Finally, after the WWII the USSR and Japan got territorial dispute which has not been resolved today: after capitulation Japan accepted the loss of Sakhalin island and the Kuril islands. The problem is some Kuril islands belong to Hokkaido province, and Japanese believe that these islands are "occupied" by Russia. Till now Russia and Japan didn't sign a peace treaty after the WWII. According to Moscow declaration (1956) Russia must return two islands to Japan after signing a peace treaty, but the Japanese want all four disputed islands.
Many tried to to resolve this issue, but only small progress was achieved. The Japanese got visa-free entry to the disputed islands (1991), Russia promised to facilitate the visits of those Japanese who lived on the disputed territories before the end of the WWII (1999), there was an agreement about Russo-Japanese economic cooperation on the islands, but all these initiatives were cancelled this spring. Now we are at the lowest point in our relatitions, and death of Mr. Abe may deepen the divide further.
#international #japan
An extraordinary meeting of the State Duma has been scheduled for July 15. A number of telegram channels began to speculate that the meeting concerns Ukraine. Perhaps we are talking about the formal declaration of war. The agenda for this meeting was supposed to appear today, and it happened. The text begins with rather innocent-looking paragraph 2, devoted to trade regulations. This means that paragraph 1, the most important topic, has been removed for reasons of secrecy.
Well, we live in unpredictable times, so everything is possible. Although the formal declaration of war won't change the situation on the frontlines, since the hot phase of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is already going. If it happens, we see the prologue of national mobilization.
If this parliament meeting is about Ukraine, it could concentrate on referendums in Kherson oblast and parts of Kharkov/Zaporozhye oblasts under Russian control. Also LPR can join Russia directly.
Or maybe nothing big will happen at all.
#war_in_ukraine
Well, we live in unpredictable times, so everything is possible. Although the formal declaration of war won't change the situation on the frontlines, since the hot phase of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is already going. If it happens, we see the prologue of national mobilization.
If this parliament meeting is about Ukraine, it could concentrate on referendums in Kherson oblast and parts of Kharkov/Zaporozhye oblasts under Russian control. Also LPR can join Russia directly.
Or maybe nothing big will happen at all.
#war_in_ukraine
👍1
For good or for bad, nothing life-changing happened. Some appointments in the govt were approved, new bills concerning economy were introduced, also some formalities were polished.
Meanwhile Russian producers make Twix replacement with Lynch reference. What a time to be alive.
#импортозамещение
Meanwhile Russian producers make Twix replacement with Lynch reference. What a time to be alive.
#импортозамещение
👍2
Today Russia and Ukraine agreed on the export of Ukrainian grain from three Black Sea ports. The UN and Turkey acted as mediators. I have not seen the text of the document, but the following export scheme is known:
1. Turkey and Ukraine will create corridors in minefields.
2. These corridors are for grain ships only.
3. Grain carriers will be escorted by Russian and Turkish warships.
These points leave at least two questions:
1. Who will inspect the ships and how? Many other cargoes can be carried along with grain.
2. How will hostilities in southern Ukraine be regulated? For example, a few weeks ago, Russia left Snake Island, now it is no man's land. Did Russia promised not to return there? Even more interesting is what will happen to the agreements if Ukraine tries to capture Kherson or Russia starts a campaign to take Nikolaev.
In general, Russia's position on Ukrainian grain looks soft. We are absolutely not obliged to help our enemy to export anything, especially since Russia is under sanctions and our export is difficult.
#grain #war_in_ukraine #international
1. Turkey and Ukraine will create corridors in minefields.
2. These corridors are for grain ships only.
3. Grain carriers will be escorted by Russian and Turkish warships.
These points leave at least two questions:
1. Who will inspect the ships and how? Many other cargoes can be carried along with grain.
2. How will hostilities in southern Ukraine be regulated? For example, a few weeks ago, Russia left Snake Island, now it is no man's land. Did Russia promised not to return there? Even more interesting is what will happen to the agreements if Ukraine tries to capture Kherson or Russia starts a campaign to take Nikolaev.
In general, Russia's position on Ukrainian grain looks soft. We are absolutely not obliged to help our enemy to export anything, especially since Russia is under sanctions and our export is difficult.
#grain #war_in_ukraine #international