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Christ is risen, friends!☺️
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More or less normal map. If the number of rhombusses is correct, what we see is a stalemate. Russian forces are subdivided into "batallion groups". As far as I understood, that's 200 infantrymen enforced by artillery, tanks, engineers etc. That gives us 600-800 soldiers and officers in total. Ukrainian brigade is 1500 men strong, although its equipment is not that diverse. Also it's worth saying that Ukrainians lose a lot of people under Russian air/missle strikes, so I doubt 1500 is a real number anymore.

Russian army slowly goes forward, at such speed the Donbass pocket will be sealed within one month.
Sad news from Transnistria. At least three explosions, most probably the mines dropped by the Ukrainian UAVs. Two radio towers and some facilities in the military airfield are damaged.

The civillians leave the republic, the army of Transnistria and Russian peacekeepers are on high alert. The airspace over Moldova (in internationally recognized borders) is closed. It seems the Ukrainian invasion is possible, some analysts expect Romanian support.

Transnistria appeared after the collapse of the USSR. Many Moldovans wanted to join Romania (basically it's one ethnicity), but the minorities and pro-Russian Moldovans opposed these intentions. Russians and Ukrainians in Eastern parts of the Moldovan republic made their own state called Transnistria (Pridnestrovye). Gagauz people (Orthodox Christian Turks), another ethnic minority, got the autonomy within Moldova. Moldovan authorities tried to smash Transnistria in 1991-1992 conflict, but local militia, the volunteers from Russia and Ukraine (Cossacks, nationalists) didn't let them. The brigades of the 14th army of the Soviet union recognized Russian command and kept neutrality, but still they were attacked by the Moldovans. This made the Kremlin to respond. The cease-fire agreements were signed. Since then Russian troops remain in Transnistria as peacekeepers.

The conflict turned into a frozen one, but I must say the relations between Transnistria and Moldova are not that hostile. Many Moldovan businessmen invest in Transnistria (and vice-versa), the borders between two countries are open. The situation worsened after 2014, when Ukrainian and Moldovan govt put Russian troops in blockade. Now Ukrainians fear that 14th army can stab Ukrainian forces in the back. The EU considers Transnistria as Moldovan territory occupied by Russia. We will soon find out how the situation will develop.

#international #moldova
1. The map of Moldova in recognized borders.
2. A man paints Russian flag on a tank of the 14th army. April 1992
3. A soldier of peacekeeping mission, 1994
1. Finland will join NATO 99%
2. Sweden will join NATO 99%
3. Estonia can announce territorial claims on Russia today 50%
4. Japan will join AUCUS 90%, the discussion of territorial disputes cancelled
5. Russia-Israel scandal escalates
6. Ukraine plans to withdraw from negotiations with Russia

UPD: The vote on territorial demands failed in Estonian parliament

#international
Speaking of nuclear deal of Iran and the West

Once upon a time Russia wanted to expand its share on European gas market. The Nord Stream 2 project was declared. Nobody was hiding that the second purpose of building this pipe was to avoid Ukrainian transit, because they often tried to steal the gas even before the conflict in 2014, and they asked for transit too much.

Due to Ukrainian crisis the US implemented sanctions against the Nord Stream 2, and the project was delayed enough to fall under the new European antitrust regulations, which made it impossible for Gazprom to export gas alone. The Russian govt put up with it and continued construction of the pipe.

Then Danish govt demanded new ecological expertise of the project, and the Americans declared a new round of sanctions against the Nord Stream 2. In 2019 Russia had to sign new gas contract with Ukraine for 5 years. But Russia once again put up with it. Everybody thought "it's humiliation, but we'll finish our precious project (it was 95% ready at the moment) and get rid of Ukrainian transit forever".

In 2021 the Ukrainian govt massed its troops near DPR/LPR. Russia did the same, got another round of sanctions, the Nord Stream 2 launch was delayed again. It was built, the test launch was made, but judicial complications prevented its work. Before 24th of February 2022 it still was under license procedure.

Every round Russia was defeated and humiliated. Every moment Europeans showed that they are independent only until the orders from Washington. We lost time and money, while the West was arming Ukraine. It was a tough lesson.

So, what's about the nuclear deal? Don't waste your time and make nukes

#international #iran
Channel photo updated
The algorithm of Russian actions in Kherson oblast.

As I already claimed, the Kremlin planned a short campaign. In March Russian troops didn't touch Ukrainian flags near the governmental buildings in captured cities (except DPR/LPR). The idea was "we will take Kiev, install pro-Russian govt and they will establish control over the country". It didn't age well. Eventually the Russians understood they need to control acquired territory by themselves.

1. Everything starts with the regional/local officials. Russians convince them to continue their service. If a person refuses, well, someone in the chain of command agrees after all. The pool of pro-Russian activists in Kherson oblast is also used. Some of these activists escaped from Ukraine in 2014-2022 and now returned. The Crimean bureaucrats, who already lived through similаr changes, help their colleagues from Kherson, too.
2. Allocation of humanitarian aid organized mostly by the military. The scale is big, but lacks individual approach. The Russian activists and journalists try to cover specific needs. Let's say the result is far from ideal, but the region avoided hunger, and basic needs of the people are met.
3. The work against Ukrainian activists. The Russians got an access to Ukrainian archives, specifically the lists of Ukrainian right-wingers, members of local militia, veterans of Donbass conflict. All of them pass some checks. If they commited crimes against ethnic Russians on Ukrainian territory, they are detained by FSB or National Guard. Same goes for bloggers and Ukrainian journalists.
4. Shutdown of Ukrainian TV. Self-explanatory point. People of Kherson oblast have access to Russian channels. The Ukrainians try to destroy transmitters by missile strikes, but failed. The internet access was turned off by the Ukrainian side one week ago, now the workers of Rostelecom reconnect Kherson networks to Russian ones.
5. Removal of Ukrainian symbols. In general it's about flags and coats of arms on the governmental buildings. Patriotic and anti-Russian banners are also removed. Eventually the monuments of Soviet Era (statues of Lenin, monuments related to the WWII) restored.

What will be the future of the region? Russia invested a lot into Kherson, so I expect its incorporation into the country. This can happen either by expansion of Crimean republic, or Kherson oblast will join Russia separately. I don't believe Ukrainians can get the control over the region by diplomatic means anymore. The military capabilities of the Ukrainian army are also limited.

#kherson
1. Kherson oblast
2. Taurida governorate of the Russian empire
The war in Ukraine is reminiscent of the Civil war in Russia a hundred years ago. Many Ukrainian citizens support Russia, but the opposite situation is not uncommon.  Since 2014, some Russian liberals have provided informational and financial support to Ukraine, and some Russian neo-Nazis have joined Ukrainian nationalist battalions.

In 2022 the cleavege in Russian society has become deeper. Don't get me wrong: this split is not 50/50. But the liberal minority is quite influential in Russia, especially in the creative industry and in the education system. Soon the anti-war movement received a new flag: white-blue-white.

At the same time on Ukrainian territory the idea arose to create a Legion of Free Russia for collaborators. Officially the legion should be made up of prisoners of war and migrants from Russia.

So far I believe that this initiative is a psyop without real content.

Nothing is known about the actual activities of the Legion. I see soldiers with hidden faces in formation, a car with a white-blue-white flag which goes somewhere, and that's it. There are no biographies of members of the legion, no reports of battles they fought in. The released videos may feature Ukrainian army soldiers or actors. Actually I'm not sure Ukrainians trust Russians enough to give them weapons.

The telegram channel of the Legion collects money and posts graffiti with the letter "L" (legion symbol) on various Russian buildings. This proves only one thing, which is already known: there are some people in Russia who support Ukraine. Whether there is a combat unit is a big question.

P.S. It's quite funny that white-blue-white is, according to the authors' idea, the Russian flag without red, the colour of blood. But if the legion exists and fights, then it's ok to spill Russian blood for them. Looks kinda hypocritical.
Three battles in Ukraine
1. The vicinity of Kharkov. The Ukrainians push Russian troops towards the border, in some places the distance of the frontlines from the border is 10km. Basically it's a tactical defeat.
2. Donbass. There Russian troops took some villages and vantage points near the city of Severodonetsk, the last stronghold of Ukraine in Lugansk oblast. Now the place is almost in a cauldron.
3. The mysterious battle on the Snake island. According to Russian sources the Ukrainians tried to capture the island, but suffered heavy losses, including some landing crafts and helicopters. I was waiting for the proofs for a long time and didn't get anything. By circumstancial evidence (Ukrainians acknowledged the death of some pilots) I must say that smth happened there, and Ukrainians don't control the island. Therefore, it can be called a Russian victory, although its scale can be overestimated.

In other places nothing new.

#war_in_ukraine
1. Now the situation in Kharkov is even worse. Not much, but worse.
2. Beautiful map of small future cauldron in Donbass.
3. Photo of Snake island. The place has extremely interesting and long history, but what is important now that's the only island in that part of the Black sea
Sorry, guys, but I wanted to write this clickbait headline since 24th of February.

RUSSIAN TROOPS CAPTURED NEW YORK

That's a village in Donetsk oblast, founded in the XVIIIc by the Mennonites (Dutch anabaptists). They were invited by Catherine the Great, who was seeking the colonists for Novorossiya. The name of a settlement remained untouched till 1951, but spoiled relations between the USSR and the USA played their role. The village got the name "Novgorodskoye", which roughly can be translated as "New City". In 2021 the old name returned, but it seems the govt of the DPR will return Russian name again. Tbh, I would prefer New York to stay, it sounds a bit funny and shows some ambition. Let it be!

#war_in_ukraine
Mariupol

I think everybody knows where Mariupol is and what it means now. Once founded as a town of Novorossiya for Greek migrants from Crimean Khanate, the city became one of the industrial centres of the Russian empire, a part of Donbass economic region. In Soviet period of history the significance of Mariupol stayed. After the collapse of the USSR the Ukrainian oligarchs got the control over industrial plants and sea port of Mariupol, while Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians (99% of inhabitants) faced increasing level of discrimination on national scale.

In April 2014 the majority of Mariupol population participated in referendum on foundation of Donetsk Peoples Republic. Unfortunately the Ukrainians reacted quickly, and newly founded group of "little black men" (analogue of Russian meme "little green men" without insignia who took Crimea) established control over the city. Later these people were organized as "Azov" regiment, probably the most notable nazi unit of XXIc. They were killing civillians and prisoners of war in the area, symbolically the first victims of Azov were unarmed pro-Russian protesters who gathered in the city streets on 9th of May 2014, the Victory day. Also they rigged elections: Biletsky, the head of the regiment, got a seat in Ukrainian parliament from Mariupol constituency.

The rest is history you know. In the begining of 2022 campaign Azov members retreated into living quarters of Mariupol, using the locals they despised as human shield. Later they went to Azovstal plant and hold their positions for almost 4 months. Yesterday they started to surrender. It seems there are +/- 2500 soldiers and officers of Mariupol garrison in Azovstal plant (not all of them are Azov members), for now the half of them are already Russian prisoners of war.

As a man of culture I'm not interested in Nazi ideology, and I consider any deals with the Ukrainian govt on Azov unacceptable. Under no circumstances any of them can be exchanged. They are war criminals who were killing Russians for 8 years. The best outcome is to have trials in Donetsk, publish all their wrongdoings and sentence them. Here I should mention one interesting judicial fact: there is moratorium on death penalty in Russia, but not in DPR/LPR.

#war_in_ukraine
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The bus column goes to give Azov a ride to the holding cells. Video by @Sladkov_plus
The ruble. Why is it so high? Is the exchange rate real?

It's rather complicated topic, so let's start with the first question. The currency exchange rate depends on supply/demand law. Despite sanctions, Russia sells oil, gas and other goods on international market. Ironically the sanctions made the commodities much more expensive than in the previous year, so Russian companies earn a lot of dollars. Here is the trick: such companies were oblidged to sell 80% (now 50%) of their dollar revenue and get rubles instead.

What about the demand of dollars? Due to sanctions Russia can't import cars, trains, industrial equipment, luxury goods, advanced chemicals, microelectronics, so Russian companies can't buy a lot of foreign goods. Also the central bank issued the limitations for money transfer abroad. Therefore the demand of dollars (for now) is not very high.

The second question — is the currency exchange real? Can I buy 1$ for 61₽? The answer is "almost yes", but it's not that easy.

You can buy dollars in electronic form everywhere. The real exchange rate is usually 7₽ higher than official one. So it's lower than it was before the war. The question is what can you do with such dollars? Visa and MasterCard left Russian market, so you can't travel abroad and pay with your card. Same with international marketplaces like eBay or Aliexpress. The Russian system "Mir' is not widely accepted in the world (despite its name, lol. Mir actually means the world). In Belarus, Armenia, Uzbekistan it's not a problem to find a place where you can pay with Mir card. In Turkey it's much harder, in Vietnam it's almost non-existent today.

The import of dollar, euro, yen notes is forbidden by Western authorities for Russian banks and other companies. The banks still sell cash, but it will take time to find notes. For now it's not a big problem, but I don't know how the situation will develop. The black market is not huge (yet?), the prices there are much higher than official currency exchange rate.

So it goes.

#economy