What is crucial to understand while observing Russian coronavirus statistics?
1. Extensive virus testing has not been carried out in the country. Moreover, Russian authorities don't plan to do this. Analyzes were conducted only for people with severe symptoms (like pneumonia) and/or people who returned to Russia from countries with a large number of coronavirus cases. Number of pneumonia cases has grown by 3% in comparisson with previous year.
2. Statistics of the deceased take into account only those people who died directly from the coronavirus. The first few deaths were logged as cancer and thrombus. Perhaps many will consider this a cunning, but as far as I know, Germans do the same, while in Italy deceased are attributed to the coronavirus. Still, the first deaths were discussed in the Russian media and I didn't see any attempts at hiding them.
3. I do not believe that the authorities conceal the cases of coronavirus, recording the disease as flu, SARS or pneumonia. Unfortunately, I cannot confirm or refute these allegations. The number of flu+SARS cases varies over different years, I attach the figures for the 12th week of 2018, 2019 and 2020.
2018 963 per 100,000
2019 654 per 100,000
2020 865 per 100 000
865... not great, not terrible
Source: https://www.influenza.spb.ru/system/epidemic_situation/situation_on_a_flu/?year=2020&week=12
#corona
1. Extensive virus testing has not been carried out in the country. Moreover, Russian authorities don't plan to do this. Analyzes were conducted only for people with severe symptoms (like pneumonia) and/or people who returned to Russia from countries with a large number of coronavirus cases. Number of pneumonia cases has grown by 3% in comparisson with previous year.
2. Statistics of the deceased take into account only those people who died directly from the coronavirus. The first few deaths were logged as cancer and thrombus. Perhaps many will consider this a cunning, but as far as I know, Germans do the same, while in Italy deceased are attributed to the coronavirus. Still, the first deaths were discussed in the Russian media and I didn't see any attempts at hiding them.
3. I do not believe that the authorities conceal the cases of coronavirus, recording the disease as flu, SARS or pneumonia. Unfortunately, I cannot confirm or refute these allegations. The number of flu+SARS cases varies over different years, I attach the figures for the 12th week of 2018, 2019 and 2020.
2018 963 per 100,000
2019 654 per 100,000
2020 865 per 100 000
865... not great, not terrible
Source: https://www.influenza.spb.ru/system/epidemic_situation/situation_on_a_flu/?year=2020&week=12
#corona
The collection of Russian-language sites (regardless of national domains) is called Runet. Runet is a mirror which reflects the history of Russia. Its development can be divided into several stages.
1991-2000
Honestly, I know very little about this time. The Internet was a space for people with a technical background who entered the network from access points at universities. During this period, library sites, some news resources, the first web design studio, search engines (Rambler, Yandex) appeared. I can talk about these projects endlessly (for example I read hundreds of books on lib.ru in childhood), but my first acquaintance with them happened later. The first Web design studio still exists, its owner Artemiy Lebedev is a very famous blogger.
2000-2011
Further development of Runet was associated with high rates of economic growth of the country. People bought home computers and connected them to the Internet. Local networks within the same region or city were also popular. Many of them became repositories of pirated content. A lot of torrent trackers appeared.
As the Russian market has become attractive enough for foreign companies, they began to open offices in Russia and localize their products. Some foreigners were clearly late. While Google was able to push Yandex a bit on the search engine market, Facebook has become a niche platform for political activists and intellectuals. Most Russians use "VKontakte", founded by Pavel Durov, and "Odnoklassniki". Still, western companies got influence and established links with Russian officials. After that copyright issues were put on the table. Russian internet watchdog Roskomnadzor was founded in 2008... and actually nothing happened. The main task of this service was to fight child porn, and everyone was happy about it.
2011-2013-2020
Good times don't last forever. In 2011 oil became cheaper, while the authorities turned more conservative. This affected Internet badly. In the first half of 2012, Russia was shocked by protests. People demanded a recount of the elections to the State Duma (parliament). The coordination of the protests was carried out via the Internet, and the authorities started to act. Roskomnadzor blocked sites of liberals, becoming the internet thought police.
In 2013 anti-piracy law was adopted (later it was expanded multiple times) and torrent trackers were blocked too. Now I think that Roskomnadzor is the most hated federal agency in Russia. In 2017 the Russian government demanded access to messages from Telegram. Durov refused, and after some trials Telegram was banned in Russia in 2018. This event became a catalyst for new protests, and I took part in them.
#internet
1991-2000
Honestly, I know very little about this time. The Internet was a space for people with a technical background who entered the network from access points at universities. During this period, library sites, some news resources, the first web design studio, search engines (Rambler, Yandex) appeared. I can talk about these projects endlessly (for example I read hundreds of books on lib.ru in childhood), but my first acquaintance with them happened later. The first Web design studio still exists, its owner Artemiy Lebedev is a very famous blogger.
2000-2011
Further development of Runet was associated with high rates of economic growth of the country. People bought home computers and connected them to the Internet. Local networks within the same region or city were also popular. Many of them became repositories of pirated content. A lot of torrent trackers appeared.
As the Russian market has become attractive enough for foreign companies, they began to open offices in Russia and localize their products. Some foreigners were clearly late. While Google was able to push Yandex a bit on the search engine market, Facebook has become a niche platform for political activists and intellectuals. Most Russians use "VKontakte", founded by Pavel Durov, and "Odnoklassniki". Still, western companies got influence and established links with Russian officials. After that copyright issues were put on the table. Russian internet watchdog Roskomnadzor was founded in 2008... and actually nothing happened. The main task of this service was to fight child porn, and everyone was happy about it.
2011-2013-2020
Good times don't last forever. In 2011 oil became cheaper, while the authorities turned more conservative. This affected Internet badly. In the first half of 2012, Russia was shocked by protests. People demanded a recount of the elections to the State Duma (parliament). The coordination of the protests was carried out via the Internet, and the authorities started to act. Roskomnadzor blocked sites of liberals, becoming the internet thought police.
In 2013 anti-piracy law was adopted (later it was expanded multiple times) and torrent trackers were blocked too. Now I think that Roskomnadzor is the most hated federal agency in Russia. In 2017 the Russian government demanded access to messages from Telegram. Durov refused, and after some trials Telegram was banned in Russia in 2018. This event became a catalyst for new protests, and I took part in them.
#internet
On March 28, Rosneft sold its assets in Venezuela. For a second, it seemed that Russian participation in Latin American affairs had been reduced to a minimum. Since 2010, Russia and its state-owned companies have invested (and gave loans) more than $17bln in Venezuela. With current oil prices, sanctions against Russia and Venezuela, permanent threat of Maduro's regime collapse, these investments are in danger like never before.
However, soon it became clear that the Russian government became the buyer of Rosneft's Venezuelan assets, and what we are witnessing is a desperate attempt by a Russian state-owned company to avoid American sanctions. Under current regulations, companies operating in Venezuela are subject to U.S. sanctions. Sanctions are also imposed on the parent company, if it owns > 50% of subsidiary company operating in Venezuela. Such sanctions were imposed against Rosneft last week, which somewhat complicated its work with traders. Under the new scheme, Venezuelan subsidiaries will belong to a special Russian state company, which is predetermined to be under American sanctions.
Here are some reasons why Russia does not want to abandon Caracas.
1. Most of Russia's investment in Venezuela should be returned. It is clear that Caracas cannot do this now, even if it wants to, but such debts can be traded for a military presence in the country, votes in the UN, recognition of Crimea and other political services.
2. The economic side of Russian-Venezuelan relations is not that hopeless. For example, Venezuela returned its debt to Rosneft ($9bln), and at least tries to serve its debt to Russian state ($3bln left). The Venezuelan gold reserve is stored in Moscow since 2019. The biggest concerns are assets bought by the state on 28th of March. They are valued at $4bln, and with current oil prices and the sanctions regime, this value can be significantly reduced. It is also unclear how, under current conditions, Caracas will pay the remaining $3bln of debt.
3. American oil refineries were built to produce gasoline from Venezuelan oil, and it is a pleasure to make Americans have troubles in getting crude oil for their industry. In the context of the oil war, control over the oil supply is very important.
Of course, all these factors depend on Maduro's ability to stay in power. Russia's withdrawal would make the current Venezuelan regime completely defenseless against the United States, with Kremlin losing both investments and influence in the country.
I am not an expert in Latin America, so I can’t evaluate the strength of the Maduro's regime. Its present existence is a miracle to me and I am skeptical about its prospects. The Russian government has a choice either support Maduro, or lose Venezuela completely, that is why I don't expect significant changes in Russian-Venezuelan relations.
#oil #oil_war #international #venezuela
However, soon it became clear that the Russian government became the buyer of Rosneft's Venezuelan assets, and what we are witnessing is a desperate attempt by a Russian state-owned company to avoid American sanctions. Under current regulations, companies operating in Venezuela are subject to U.S. sanctions. Sanctions are also imposed on the parent company, if it owns > 50% of subsidiary company operating in Venezuela. Such sanctions were imposed against Rosneft last week, which somewhat complicated its work with traders. Under the new scheme, Venezuelan subsidiaries will belong to a special Russian state company, which is predetermined to be under American sanctions.
Here are some reasons why Russia does not want to abandon Caracas.
1. Most of Russia's investment in Venezuela should be returned. It is clear that Caracas cannot do this now, even if it wants to, but such debts can be traded for a military presence in the country, votes in the UN, recognition of Crimea and other political services.
2. The economic side of Russian-Venezuelan relations is not that hopeless. For example, Venezuela returned its debt to Rosneft ($9bln), and at least tries to serve its debt to Russian state ($3bln left). The Venezuelan gold reserve is stored in Moscow since 2019. The biggest concerns are assets bought by the state on 28th of March. They are valued at $4bln, and with current oil prices and the sanctions regime, this value can be significantly reduced. It is also unclear how, under current conditions, Caracas will pay the remaining $3bln of debt.
3. American oil refineries were built to produce gasoline from Venezuelan oil, and it is a pleasure to make Americans have troubles in getting crude oil for their industry. In the context of the oil war, control over the oil supply is very important.
Of course, all these factors depend on Maduro's ability to stay in power. Russia's withdrawal would make the current Venezuelan regime completely defenseless against the United States, with Kremlin losing both investments and influence in the country.
I am not an expert in Latin America, so I can’t evaluate the strength of the Maduro's regime. Its present existence is a miracle to me and I am skeptical about its prospects. The Russian government has a choice either support Maduro, or lose Venezuela completely, that is why I don't expect significant changes in Russian-Venezuelan relations.
#oil #oil_war #international #venezuela
Coronavirus became a shock to the Russian legal system.
It all started with a constitutional change. Voting on this issue was scheduled for April 22, but Putin postponed the procedure indefinitely. The problem is that the law on changing the constitution did not say anything about this possibility. Now I find it difficult to say which version of the constitution is in force, since the role of voting is also not very clear, and amendments to the old constitution have already been made.
March 29, Vladimir Putin announced holiday week, which contradicts the Labor Code. Laws oblige the authorities to warn about new days-off for at least two months in advance.
The situation at the regional level is even more interesting.
For example, as part of the fight against coronavirus, the mayor of Moscow, along with the governor of the Moscow region, introduced decrees of "preparation for an emergency". There are three such regimes: preparation for an emergency, emergency situation, and state of emergency. Only the third regime implies movement restrictions, but this did not bother the heads of the two regions. From March 5 to March 30, their decrees were becoming less and less consistent with the federal laws of Russia. The apotheosis happened today with a ban on leaving home. Formally remaining at the first level of emergency, Moscow reached the third one. The presidential administration and the government verbally (!) supported these actions.
While Moscow limited their citizens, the head of the Chechen Republic decided to close borders of his region for non-locals. Needless to say, such measures are anti-constitutional.
Now the Russian media scare citizens with fines for violating quarantine, which seems pretty funny, because the norms related to quarantine do not apply to the current situation.
In just two weeks Russia plunged into a state of legal chaos, and I don't see any signs of improvement.
#corona #legislation
It all started with a constitutional change. Voting on this issue was scheduled for April 22, but Putin postponed the procedure indefinitely. The problem is that the law on changing the constitution did not say anything about this possibility. Now I find it difficult to say which version of the constitution is in force, since the role of voting is also not very clear, and amendments to the old constitution have already been made.
March 29, Vladimir Putin announced holiday week, which contradicts the Labor Code. Laws oblige the authorities to warn about new days-off for at least two months in advance.
The situation at the regional level is even more interesting.
For example, as part of the fight against coronavirus, the mayor of Moscow, along with the governor of the Moscow region, introduced decrees of "preparation for an emergency". There are three such regimes: preparation for an emergency, emergency situation, and state of emergency. Only the third regime implies movement restrictions, but this did not bother the heads of the two regions. From March 5 to March 30, their decrees were becoming less and less consistent with the federal laws of Russia. The apotheosis happened today with a ban on leaving home. Formally remaining at the first level of emergency, Moscow reached the third one. The presidential administration and the government verbally (!) supported these actions.
While Moscow limited their citizens, the head of the Chechen Republic decided to close borders of his region for non-locals. Needless to say, such measures are anti-constitutional.
Now the Russian media scare citizens with fines for violating quarantine, which seems pretty funny, because the norms related to quarantine do not apply to the current situation.
In just two weeks Russia plunged into a state of legal chaos, and I don't see any signs of improvement.
#corona #legislation
Apparently the most adequate leader on the post-soviet territory is Lukashenko.
The president of Belarus accepts the existence of covid, but refuses to admit its seriousness. Putting cities on lockdown is out of the question. Lukashenko didn't even close schools. Actually he closed nothing. That's why all Russian football fans are choosing a Belarussian team to cheer on it. Yes, Belarus is the one country in the world where sports events weren't postponed. The only concession to virus are closed borders. The thing is, all countries around Belarus (including Russia) closed their borders, and there is no point to have them open anymore from Belarussian side.
This deliberate disdain towards covid has another dimension. Belarus just doesn't possess money to compensate the costs of hypothetical quarantine to its people and businesses. The virus is already in the country (the first case of infection was discovered in a student from Iran), and nobody can predict how the situation will evolve.
#corona #belarus
The president of Belarus accepts the existence of covid, but refuses to admit its seriousness. Putting cities on lockdown is out of the question. Lukashenko didn't even close schools. Actually he closed nothing. That's why all Russian football fans are choosing a Belarussian team to cheer on it. Yes, Belarus is the one country in the world where sports events weren't postponed. The only concession to virus are closed borders. The thing is, all countries around Belarus (including Russia) closed their borders, and there is no point to have them open anymore from Belarussian side.
This deliberate disdain towards covid has another dimension. Belarus just doesn't possess money to compensate the costs of hypothetical quarantine to its people and businesses. The virus is already in the country (the first case of infection was discovered in a student from Iran), and nobody can predict how the situation will evolve.
#corona #belarus
Content plan for this week.
10th. Russia and Ukraine
11th. Lunar and Solar Putin
12th. Muslims in Russia
I must post this, otherwise the procrastination will prevail
10th. Russia and Ukraine
11th. Lunar and Solar Putin
12th. Muslims in Russia
I must post this, otherwise the procrastination will prevail
Today Orthodox Christians celebrate Easter. The most devout believers usually have Easter Vigil liturgy, but due to coronavirus everybody just watches translation on tv. I'm already eating kulich, a traditional round cake. Apart from kulich, at Easter Russians eat eggs colored (mostly) in red. The egg is a symbol of tomb of Jesus, and red color means His blood.
At Easter people in Russia greet each other with words "Christ is risen", "Truly risen", but 70 years of Soviet atheism and contemporary spread of liberals create awkward situations for believers all the time. Still, this tradition is alive.
One week ago Orthodox Christians had Palm Sunday. There are no palms on the North, so Slavs and Baltic ethnicities (Bulgarians, Ukrainians, Poles, Lithuanians, Russians and other) usually use pussy willow in their rituals instead.
At Easter people in Russia greet each other with words "Christ is risen", "Truly risen", but 70 years of Soviet atheism and contemporary spread of liberals create awkward situations for believers all the time. Still, this tradition is alive.
One week ago Orthodox Christians had Palm Sunday. There are no palms on the North, so Slavs and Baltic ethnicities (Bulgarians, Ukrainians, Poles, Lithuanians, Russians and other) usually use pussy willow in their rituals instead.
Let's talk oil again.
One month ago OPEC+ countries wanted to strike a deal on reduction of oil mining. They failed. The exact reasons are unknown, but according to the media, Russian concerns were:
1. The biggest oil producer in the world (the US) didn't participate in the meeting
2. Saudis wanted Russia to cut production too much
After negotiations failed on 6th of March, Russian economy faced ideal storm of covid-19 quarantine measures and falling oil prices. American dollar exchange rate reacted first: it rose from 67₽ to 83₽ for 1$. I don't want to speculate about other indicators, because losses of Russian economy will be evaluated properly in the beginning of 2021, and still it would be impossible to separate impact of oil prices drop from quarantine implementation.
On 11th of April the new agreements were reached. Russia cut 18% of oil mining, Saudi Arabia 13%, and the US companies 15%-23%. The oil war came to an end for obvious reason: nobody buys oil because of the pandemic, and oil storages would be full within two-three months.
The next two questions which are important now for oil market, are:
1. For how long quarantine in Europe, India and the US will last? (Demand of oil)
2. Will the participants of OPEC++ agreements comply with the set limits of oil mining? (Supply of oil)
I can't answer the first question, but I doubt that Russia will fulfill its promise to cut oil production to 8,5mln bpd. The previous OPEC+ deal signed in 2016 showed that Russian officials didn't care about any limitations and made Russia the second oil producer after the US. So I'm sure that #oil_war and #oil hashtags won't disappear from this channel completely.
P.S. today 1$ costs 73₽
One month ago OPEC+ countries wanted to strike a deal on reduction of oil mining. They failed. The exact reasons are unknown, but according to the media, Russian concerns were:
1. The biggest oil producer in the world (the US) didn't participate in the meeting
2. Saudis wanted Russia to cut production too much
After negotiations failed on 6th of March, Russian economy faced ideal storm of covid-19 quarantine measures and falling oil prices. American dollar exchange rate reacted first: it rose from 67₽ to 83₽ for 1$. I don't want to speculate about other indicators, because losses of Russian economy will be evaluated properly in the beginning of 2021, and still it would be impossible to separate impact of oil prices drop from quarantine implementation.
On 11th of April the new agreements were reached. Russia cut 18% of oil mining, Saudi Arabia 13%, and the US companies 15%-23%. The oil war came to an end for obvious reason: nobody buys oil because of the pandemic, and oil storages would be full within two-three months.
The next two questions which are important now for oil market, are:
1. For how long quarantine in Europe, India and the US will last? (Demand of oil)
2. Will the participants of OPEC++ agreements comply with the set limits of oil mining? (Supply of oil)
I can't answer the first question, but I doubt that Russia will fulfill its promise to cut oil production to 8,5mln bpd. The previous OPEC+ deal signed in 2016 showed that Russian officials didn't care about any limitations and made Russia the second oil producer after the US. So I'm sure that #oil_war and #oil hashtags won't disappear from this channel completely.
P.S. today 1$ costs 73₽
I promised to write some news about Russia too. Ok. Today the whole country is looking on the North Ossetia (Alania), a small poor republic in the North Caucasian federal region. People took to streets and demanded abolition of quarantine measures. The head of the republic talked to people and promised help to the poor. Still, some protesters were arrested afterwards.
Why did it happen?
1. Values.
Latest poll of Gallup and its Russian partner Romir showed that 28% of Russians are not ready to give up their rights because of coronavirus. That's the second result in the world after the US (29%).
2. Social security.
Quarantine measures hit Russian economy. While registered employees can count on some (at least partial) compensation, illegal self-employed and those who have unregistered business (that's typical story for the North Caucasus) stopped operating and were left without income.
3. Regional politics. The leftist opposition used people's frustration and mobilized them.
Many experts fear that this meeting made epidemiological situation worse. Taking into account that Easter vigil in North Ossetia wasn't cancelled (unlike the vast majority of their Muslim neighbours, Ossetians are predominantly Orthodox Christians), the threat of outbreak in the republic is very high. Till that moment North Ossetia reported 120 cases and 7 deceased.
#protest #north_ossetia #corona
Why did it happen?
1. Values.
Latest poll of Gallup and its Russian partner Romir showed that 28% of Russians are not ready to give up their rights because of coronavirus. That's the second result in the world after the US (29%).
2. Social security.
Quarantine measures hit Russian economy. While registered employees can count on some (at least partial) compensation, illegal self-employed and those who have unregistered business (that's typical story for the North Caucasus) stopped operating and were left without income.
3. Regional politics. The leftist opposition used people's frustration and mobilized them.
Many experts fear that this meeting made epidemiological situation worse. Taking into account that Easter vigil in North Ossetia wasn't cancelled (unlike the vast majority of their Muslim neighbours, Ossetians are predominantly Orthodox Christians), the threat of outbreak in the republic is very high. Till that moment North Ossetia reported 120 cases and 7 deceased.
#protest #north_ossetia #corona
These meme guys from Ghana were invited to the local tv. Kinda funny, that their dj has chosen the Russian track Astronomia by Tony Igy (Anton Igumnov) from Rostov oblast.
#culture
#culture
Forwarded from Новости. Как есть
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Гробовщики из Ганы прикатили на местное ТВ, показали свой танец и дали интервью. Даже они в масках
A very short update on corona. Russian PM desided to cosplay Boris Johnson and fall ill. The number of cases reached 100k across the country.
Still, I'm kinda optimistic about corona rn. New cases rate is 7%, which is less, than before, while death rate is 1%, and I haven't noticed any serious attempts to falsify the statistics. The ministry of defence built 16 brand new hospitals in Russia to prevent the high pressure on the healthcare system, and already existed hospitals were expanded. In my opinion, eventual lifting of quarantine measures on 12-13 of May proposed by the govt is still an option.
My biggest concern is economic crisis, and I will talk about it later.
#corona
Still, I'm kinda optimistic about corona rn. New cases rate is 7%, which is less, than before, while death rate is 1%, and I haven't noticed any serious attempts to falsify the statistics. The ministry of defence built 16 brand new hospitals in Russia to prevent the high pressure on the healthcare system, and already existed hospitals were expanded. In my opinion, eventual lifting of quarantine measures on 12-13 of May proposed by the govt is still an option.
My biggest concern is economic crisis, and I will talk about it later.
#corona
Victory over death in all its forms. Russian military doctors are returning from Italy.