The flagship of the Black sea fleet, missile cruiser "Moskva" was lost. There are no photos or videos of the incident. Some Ukrainian sources claim that the ship was hit by two missiles. Russian sources just mention an explosion. The crew was evacuated.
I've already seen some copium pills, like the ship was old anyway (which is true), but the harsh reality is Russia can't replace her anytime soon, and the Black sea fleet lost a lot of its military potential. Also the strike shows that Ukrainian military with western satellite intel can effectively counter Russian forces.
UPD. According to Russian MoD, the ship wasn't sunk, but was damaged due "the fire".
UPD, 23:50. She sunk in the Black sea. The crew was saved, according to official sources. It's your choice whether to believe them or not. The crew was about 500 men, as far as I understood. I hope they survived
I've already seen some copium pills, like the ship was old anyway (which is true), but the harsh reality is Russia can't replace her anytime soon, and the Black sea fleet lost a lot of its military potential. Also the strike shows that Ukrainian military with western satellite intel can effectively counter Russian forces.
UPD. According to Russian MoD, the ship wasn't sunk, but was damaged due "the fire".
UPD, 23:50. She sunk in the Black sea. The crew was saved, according to official sources. It's your choice whether to believe them or not. The crew was about 500 men, as far as I understood. I hope they survived
I really like the words "Mariupol is under our total control except Azovstal plant". Not so total, then. Anyway, the living quarters of Mariupol, its port and and some factories are liberated by the DPR. The city has a mayor for two weeks already, the guy is from "pro-Russian" Ukrainian party.
The city lost the majority of its population. The scale of destruction is very huge. Great redevelopment is needed. Now it's impossible to start it normally, because Ukrainian troops still have ground in Mariupol. Also the siege distracts thousands of Russian forces from Donbass battle. Still, I like the idea of a siege more, because the lives of Russian soldiers must be a top priority.
The city lost the majority of its population. The scale of destruction is very huge. Great redevelopment is needed. Now it's impossible to start it normally, because Ukrainian troops still have ground in Mariupol. Also the siege distracts thousands of Russian forces from Donbass battle. Still, I like the idea of a siege more, because the lives of Russian soldiers must be a top priority.
The deputy of the commander of Central Military District gave an interesting speech about "the second phase" of operation. Now it's official: we go for Donbass and South Ukraine. Usually the term South Ukraine means Odessa, Nikolaev, Zaporozhye, Kherson. The last one is the only regional centre under the control of Russian forces (not counting Donetsk and Lugansk for obvious reasons).
The control over South Ukraine will cut off the Ukrainian govt from the sea and give Russian troops access to Transnistria, unrecognized state on official Moldovan territory with pro-Russian population.
There are three problems with such goals of "the second phase".
1. Russian army is small in numbers. I know it sounds funny, but it's true. The Ukrainian govt struggles for survival, recently it declared the third wave of mobilization. Russian govt in its turn pretends that war in Ukraine is like Iraqi campaign for the US. Battle for Donbass means large encirclement operation which demands quantitave superiority. Russia doesn't have it. That is one of the reasons Russian troops advance that slow.
2. All cities in Ukraine turned into "Schwerpunkts". The battles in cities are inevitable. They bring many losses, they are time-consuming, they bring destruction of buildings and city infrastructure. Most importantly, city warfare means deaths of civillians, many of them were and are pro-Russian people.
3. Politics. The war planned to be short. Now it's a significant conflict which covers big territory and lasts rather long. Such scale was a surprise for Russian decision-makers (they deny it, but...), and now they have to support the people on Russia-controlled territory, organize pro-Russian authorities etc. What will happen next to these territories? Will they join Russia, or they will be autonomies inside pro-Russian Ukraine (whatever it means). The political goals and exit strategy of Russia look extremely vague.
P.S. All my messages about war look pessimistic, I know. In general Russian army is winning now anyway. But there are a lot of problems, and I think it's important to describe them
The control over South Ukraine will cut off the Ukrainian govt from the sea and give Russian troops access to Transnistria, unrecognized state on official Moldovan territory with pro-Russian population.
There are three problems with such goals of "the second phase".
1. Russian army is small in numbers. I know it sounds funny, but it's true. The Ukrainian govt struggles for survival, recently it declared the third wave of mobilization. Russian govt in its turn pretends that war in Ukraine is like Iraqi campaign for the US. Battle for Donbass means large encirclement operation which demands quantitave superiority. Russia doesn't have it. That is one of the reasons Russian troops advance that slow.
2. All cities in Ukraine turned into "Schwerpunkts". The battles in cities are inevitable. They bring many losses, they are time-consuming, they bring destruction of buildings and city infrastructure. Most importantly, city warfare means deaths of civillians, many of them were and are pro-Russian people.
3. Politics. The war planned to be short. Now it's a significant conflict which covers big territory and lasts rather long. Such scale was a surprise for Russian decision-makers (they deny it, but...), and now they have to support the people on Russia-controlled territory, organize pro-Russian authorities etc. What will happen next to these territories? Will they join Russia, or they will be autonomies inside pro-Russian Ukraine (whatever it means). The political goals and exit strategy of Russia look extremely vague.
P.S. All my messages about war look pessimistic, I know. In general Russian army is winning now anyway. But there are a lot of problems, and I think it's important to describe them
Was sind deine Pläne für Mai?
More or less normal map. If the number of rhombusses is correct, what we see is a stalemate. Russian forces are subdivided into "batallion groups". As far as I understood, that's 200 infantrymen enforced by artillery, tanks, engineers etc. That gives us 600-800 soldiers and officers in total. Ukrainian brigade is 1500 men strong, although its equipment is not that diverse. Also it's worth saying that Ukrainians lose a lot of people under Russian air/missle strikes, so I doubt 1500 is a real number anymore.
Russian army slowly goes forward, at such speed the Donbass pocket will be sealed within one month.
More or less normal map. If the number of rhombusses is correct, what we see is a stalemate. Russian forces are subdivided into "batallion groups". As far as I understood, that's 200 infantrymen enforced by artillery, tanks, engineers etc. That gives us 600-800 soldiers and officers in total. Ukrainian brigade is 1500 men strong, although its equipment is not that diverse. Also it's worth saying that Ukrainians lose a lot of people under Russian air/missle strikes, so I doubt 1500 is a real number anymore.
Russian army slowly goes forward, at such speed the Donbass pocket will be sealed within one month.
Sad news from Transnistria. At least three explosions, most probably the mines dropped by the Ukrainian UAVs. Two radio towers and some facilities in the military airfield are damaged.
The civillians leave the republic, the army of Transnistria and Russian peacekeepers are on high alert. The airspace over Moldova (in internationally recognized borders) is closed. It seems the Ukrainian invasion is possible, some analysts expect Romanian support.
Transnistria appeared after the collapse of the USSR. Many Moldovans wanted to join Romania (basically it's one ethnicity), but the minorities and pro-Russian Moldovans opposed these intentions. Russians and Ukrainians in Eastern parts of the Moldovan republic made their own state called Transnistria (Pridnestrovye). Gagauz people (Orthodox Christian Turks), another ethnic minority, got the autonomy within Moldova. Moldovan authorities tried to smash Transnistria in 1991-1992 conflict, but local militia, the volunteers from Russia and Ukraine (Cossacks, nationalists) didn't let them. The brigades of the 14th army of the Soviet union recognized Russian command and kept neutrality, but still they were attacked by the Moldovans. This made the Kremlin to respond. The cease-fire agreements were signed. Since then Russian troops remain in Transnistria as peacekeepers.
The conflict turned into a frozen one, but I must say the relations between Transnistria and Moldova are not that hostile. Many Moldovan businessmen invest in Transnistria (and vice-versa), the borders between two countries are open. The situation worsened after 2014, when Ukrainian and Moldovan govt put Russian troops in blockade. Now Ukrainians fear that 14th army can stab Ukrainian forces in the back. The EU considers Transnistria as Moldovan territory occupied by Russia. We will soon find out how the situation will develop.
#international #moldova
The civillians leave the republic, the army of Transnistria and Russian peacekeepers are on high alert. The airspace over Moldova (in internationally recognized borders) is closed. It seems the Ukrainian invasion is possible, some analysts expect Romanian support.
Transnistria appeared after the collapse of the USSR. Many Moldovans wanted to join Romania (basically it's one ethnicity), but the minorities and pro-Russian Moldovans opposed these intentions. Russians and Ukrainians in Eastern parts of the Moldovan republic made their own state called Transnistria (Pridnestrovye). Gagauz people (Orthodox Christian Turks), another ethnic minority, got the autonomy within Moldova. Moldovan authorities tried to smash Transnistria in 1991-1992 conflict, but local militia, the volunteers from Russia and Ukraine (Cossacks, nationalists) didn't let them. The brigades of the 14th army of the Soviet union recognized Russian command and kept neutrality, but still they were attacked by the Moldovans. This made the Kremlin to respond. The cease-fire agreements were signed. Since then Russian troops remain in Transnistria as peacekeepers.
The conflict turned into a frozen one, but I must say the relations between Transnistria and Moldova are not that hostile. Many Moldovan businessmen invest in Transnistria (and vice-versa), the borders between two countries are open. The situation worsened after 2014, when Ukrainian and Moldovan govt put Russian troops in blockade. Now Ukrainians fear that 14th army can stab Ukrainian forces in the back. The EU considers Transnistria as Moldovan territory occupied by Russia. We will soon find out how the situation will develop.
#international #moldova
1. The map of Moldova in recognized borders.
2. A man paints Russian flag on a tank of the 14th army. April 1992
3. A soldier of peacekeeping mission, 1994
2. A man paints Russian flag on a tank of the 14th army. April 1992
3. A soldier of peacekeeping mission, 1994
1. Finland will join NATO 99%
2. Sweden will join NATO 99%
3. Estonia can announce territorial claims on Russia today 50%
4. Japan will join AUCUS 90%, the discussion of territorial disputes cancelled
5. Russia-Israel scandal escalates
6. Ukraine plans to withdraw from negotiations with Russia
UPD: The vote on territorial demands failed in Estonian parliament
#international
2. Sweden will join NATO 99%
3. Estonia can announce territorial claims on Russia today 50%
4. Japan will join AUCUS 90%, the discussion of territorial disputes cancelled
5. Russia-Israel scandal escalates
6. Ukraine plans to withdraw from negotiations with Russia
UPD: The vote on territorial demands failed in Estonian parliament
#international
Speaking of nuclear deal of Iran and the West
Once upon a time Russia wanted to expand its share on European gas market. The Nord Stream 2 project was declared. Nobody was hiding that the second purpose of building this pipe was to avoid Ukrainian transit, because they often tried to steal the gas even before the conflict in 2014, and they asked for transit too much.
Due to Ukrainian crisis the US implemented sanctions against the Nord Stream 2, and the project was delayed enough to fall under the new European antitrust regulations, which made it impossible for Gazprom to export gas alone. The Russian govt put up with it and continued construction of the pipe.
Then Danish govt demanded new ecological expertise of the project, and the Americans declared a new round of sanctions against the Nord Stream 2. In 2019 Russia had to sign new gas contract with Ukraine for 5 years. But Russia once again put up with it. Everybody thought "it's humiliation, but we'll finish our precious project (it was 95% ready at the moment) and get rid of Ukrainian transit forever".
In 2021 the Ukrainian govt massed its troops near DPR/LPR. Russia did the same, got another round of sanctions, the Nord Stream 2 launch was delayed again. It was built, the test launch was made, but judicial complications prevented its work. Before 24th of February 2022 it still was under license procedure.
Every round Russia was defeated and humiliated. Every moment Europeans showed that they are independent only until the orders from Washington. We lost time and money, while the West was arming Ukraine. It was a tough lesson.
So, what's about the nuclear deal? Don't waste your time and make nukes
#international #iran
Once upon a time Russia wanted to expand its share on European gas market. The Nord Stream 2 project was declared. Nobody was hiding that the second purpose of building this pipe was to avoid Ukrainian transit, because they often tried to steal the gas even before the conflict in 2014, and they asked for transit too much.
Due to Ukrainian crisis the US implemented sanctions against the Nord Stream 2, and the project was delayed enough to fall under the new European antitrust regulations, which made it impossible for Gazprom to export gas alone. The Russian govt put up with it and continued construction of the pipe.
Then Danish govt demanded new ecological expertise of the project, and the Americans declared a new round of sanctions against the Nord Stream 2. In 2019 Russia had to sign new gas contract with Ukraine for 5 years. But Russia once again put up with it. Everybody thought "it's humiliation, but we'll finish our precious project (it was 95% ready at the moment) and get rid of Ukrainian transit forever".
In 2021 the Ukrainian govt massed its troops near DPR/LPR. Russia did the same, got another round of sanctions, the Nord Stream 2 launch was delayed again. It was built, the test launch was made, but judicial complications prevented its work. Before 24th of February 2022 it still was under license procedure.
Every round Russia was defeated and humiliated. Every moment Europeans showed that they are independent only until the orders from Washington. We lost time and money, while the West was arming Ukraine. It was a tough lesson.
#international #iran
The algorithm of Russian actions in Kherson oblast.
As I already claimed, the Kremlin planned a short campaign. In March Russian troops didn't touch Ukrainian flags near the governmental buildings in captured cities (except DPR/LPR). The idea was "we will take Kiev, install pro-Russian govt and they will establish control over the country". It didn't age well. Eventually the Russians understood they need to control acquired territory by themselves.
1. Everything starts with the regional/local officials. Russians convince them to continue their service. If a person refuses, well, someone in the chain of command agrees after all. The pool of pro-Russian activists in Kherson oblast is also used. Some of these activists escaped from Ukraine in 2014-2022 and now returned. The Crimean bureaucrats, who already lived through similаr changes, help their colleagues from Kherson, too.
2. Allocation of humanitarian aid organized mostly by the military. The scale is big, but lacks individual approach. The Russian activists and journalists try to cover specific needs. Let's say the result is far from ideal, but the region avoided hunger, and basic needs of the people are met.
3. The work against Ukrainian activists. The Russians got an access to Ukrainian archives, specifically the lists of Ukrainian right-wingers, members of local militia, veterans of Donbass conflict. All of them pass some checks. If they commited crimes against ethnic Russians on Ukrainian territory, they are detained by FSB or National Guard. Same goes for bloggers and Ukrainian journalists.
4. Shutdown of Ukrainian TV. Self-explanatory point. People of Kherson oblast have access to Russian channels. The Ukrainians try to destroy transmitters by missile strikes, but failed. The internet access was turned off by the Ukrainian side one week ago, now the workers of Rostelecom reconnect Kherson networks to Russian ones.
5. Removal of Ukrainian symbols. In general it's about flags and coats of arms on the governmental buildings. Patriotic and anti-Russian banners are also removed. Eventually the monuments of Soviet Era (statues of Lenin, monuments related to the WWII) restored.
What will be the future of the region? Russia invested a lot into Kherson, so I expect its incorporation into the country. This can happen either by expansion of Crimean republic, or Kherson oblast will join Russia separately. I don't believe Ukrainians can get the control over the region by diplomatic means anymore. The military capabilities of the Ukrainian army are also limited.
#kherson
As I already claimed, the Kremlin planned a short campaign. In March Russian troops didn't touch Ukrainian flags near the governmental buildings in captured cities (except DPR/LPR). The idea was "we will take Kiev, install pro-Russian govt and they will establish control over the country". It didn't age well. Eventually the Russians understood they need to control acquired territory by themselves.
1. Everything starts with the regional/local officials. Russians convince them to continue their service. If a person refuses, well, someone in the chain of command agrees after all. The pool of pro-Russian activists in Kherson oblast is also used. Some of these activists escaped from Ukraine in 2014-2022 and now returned. The Crimean bureaucrats, who already lived through similаr changes, help their colleagues from Kherson, too.
2. Allocation of humanitarian aid organized mostly by the military. The scale is big, but lacks individual approach. The Russian activists and journalists try to cover specific needs. Let's say the result is far from ideal, but the region avoided hunger, and basic needs of the people are met.
3. The work against Ukrainian activists. The Russians got an access to Ukrainian archives, specifically the lists of Ukrainian right-wingers, members of local militia, veterans of Donbass conflict. All of them pass some checks. If they commited crimes against ethnic Russians on Ukrainian territory, they are detained by FSB or National Guard. Same goes for bloggers and Ukrainian journalists.
4. Shutdown of Ukrainian TV. Self-explanatory point. People of Kherson oblast have access to Russian channels. The Ukrainians try to destroy transmitters by missile strikes, but failed. The internet access was turned off by the Ukrainian side one week ago, now the workers of Rostelecom reconnect Kherson networks to Russian ones.
5. Removal of Ukrainian symbols. In general it's about flags and coats of arms on the governmental buildings. Patriotic and anti-Russian banners are also removed. Eventually the monuments of Soviet Era (statues of Lenin, monuments related to the WWII) restored.
What will be the future of the region? Russia invested a lot into Kherson, so I expect its incorporation into the country. This can happen either by expansion of Crimean republic, or Kherson oblast will join Russia separately. I don't believe Ukrainians can get the control over the region by diplomatic means anymore. The military capabilities of the Ukrainian army are also limited.
#kherson
The war in Ukraine is reminiscent of the Civil war in Russia a hundred years ago. Many Ukrainian citizens support Russia, but the opposite situation is not uncommon. Since 2014, some Russian liberals have provided informational and financial support to Ukraine, and some Russian neo-Nazis have joined Ukrainian nationalist battalions.
In 2022 the cleavege in Russian society has become deeper. Don't get me wrong: this split is not 50/50. But the liberal minority is quite influential in Russia, especially in the creative industry and in the education system. Soon the anti-war movement received a new flag: white-blue-white.
At the same time on Ukrainian territory the idea arose to create a Legion of Free Russia for collaborators. Officially the legion should be made up of prisoners of war and migrants from Russia.
So far I believe that this initiative is a psyop without real content.
Nothing is known about the actual activities of the Legion. I see soldiers with hidden faces in formation, a car with a white-blue-white flag which goes somewhere, and that's it. There are no biographies of members of the legion, no reports of battles they fought in. The released videos may feature Ukrainian army soldiers or actors. Actually I'm not sure Ukrainians trust Russians enough to give them weapons.
The telegram channel of the Legion collects money and posts graffiti with the letter "L" (legion symbol) on various Russian buildings. This proves only one thing, which is already known: there are some people in Russia who support Ukraine. Whether there is a combat unit is a big question.
P.S. It's quite funny that white-blue-white is, according to the authors' idea, the Russian flag without red, the colour of blood. But if the legion exists and fights, then it's ok to spill Russian blood for them. Looks kinda hypocritical.
In 2022 the cleavege in Russian society has become deeper. Don't get me wrong: this split is not 50/50. But the liberal minority is quite influential in Russia, especially in the creative industry and in the education system. Soon the anti-war movement received a new flag: white-blue-white.
At the same time on Ukrainian territory the idea arose to create a Legion of Free Russia for collaborators. Officially the legion should be made up of prisoners of war and migrants from Russia.
So far I believe that this initiative is a psyop without real content.
Nothing is known about the actual activities of the Legion. I see soldiers with hidden faces in formation, a car with a white-blue-white flag which goes somewhere, and that's it. There are no biographies of members of the legion, no reports of battles they fought in. The released videos may feature Ukrainian army soldiers or actors. Actually I'm not sure Ukrainians trust Russians enough to give them weapons.
The telegram channel of the Legion collects money and posts graffiti with the letter "L" (legion symbol) on various Russian buildings. This proves only one thing, which is already known: there are some people in Russia who support Ukraine. Whether there is a combat unit is a big question.
P.S. It's quite funny that white-blue-white is, according to the authors' idea, the Russian flag without red, the colour of blood. But if the legion exists and fights, then it's ok to spill Russian blood for them. Looks kinda hypocritical.
Three battles in Ukraine
1. The vicinity of Kharkov. The Ukrainians push Russian troops towards the border, in some places the distance of the frontlines from the border is 10km. Basically it's a tactical defeat.
2. Donbass. There Russian troops took some villages and vantage points near the city of Severodonetsk, the last stronghold of Ukraine in Lugansk oblast. Now the place is almost in a cauldron.
3. The mysterious battle on the Snake island. According to Russian sources the Ukrainians tried to capture the island, but suffered heavy losses, including some landing crafts and helicopters. I was waiting for the proofs for a long time and didn't get anything. By circumstancial evidence (Ukrainians acknowledged the death of some pilots) I must say that smth happened there, and Ukrainians don't control the island. Therefore, it can be called a Russian victory, although its scale can be overestimated.
In other places nothing new.
#war_in_ukraine
1. The vicinity of Kharkov. The Ukrainians push Russian troops towards the border, in some places the distance of the frontlines from the border is 10km. Basically it's a tactical defeat.
2. Donbass. There Russian troops took some villages and vantage points near the city of Severodonetsk, the last stronghold of Ukraine in Lugansk oblast. Now the place is almost in a cauldron.
3. The mysterious battle on the Snake island. According to Russian sources the Ukrainians tried to capture the island, but suffered heavy losses, including some landing crafts and helicopters. I was waiting for the proofs for a long time and didn't get anything. By circumstancial evidence (Ukrainians acknowledged the death of some pilots) I must say that smth happened there, and Ukrainians don't control the island. Therefore, it can be called a Russian victory, although its scale can be overestimated.
In other places nothing new.
#war_in_ukraine
1. Now the situation in Kharkov is even worse. Not much, but worse.
2. Beautiful map of small future cauldron in Donbass.
3. Photo of Snake island. The place has extremely interesting and long history, but what is important now that's the only island in that part of the Black sea
2. Beautiful map of small future cauldron in Donbass.
3. Photo of Snake island. The place has extremely interesting and long history, but what is important now that's the only island in that part of the Black sea
Sorry, guys, but I wanted to write this clickbait headline since 24th of February.
RUSSIAN TROOPS CAPTURED NEW YORK
That's a village in Donetsk oblast, founded in the XVIIIc by the Mennonites (Dutch anabaptists). They were invited by Catherine the Great, who was seeking the colonists for Novorossiya. The name of a settlement remained untouched till 1951, but spoiled relations between the USSR and the USA played their role. The village got the name "Novgorodskoye", which roughly can be translated as "New City". In 2021 the old name returned, but it seems the govt of the DPR will return Russian name again. Tbh, I would prefer New York to stay, it sounds a bit funny and shows some ambition. Let it be!
#war_in_ukraine
RUSSIAN TROOPS CAPTURED NEW YORK
That's a village in Donetsk oblast, founded in the XVIIIc by the Mennonites (Dutch anabaptists). They were invited by Catherine the Great, who was seeking the colonists for Novorossiya. The name of a settlement remained untouched till 1951, but spoiled relations between the USSR and the USA played their role. The village got the name "Novgorodskoye", which roughly can be translated as "New City". In 2021 the old name returned, but it seems the govt of the DPR will return Russian name again. Tbh, I would prefer New York to stay, it sounds a bit funny and shows some ambition. Let it be!
#war_in_ukraine