RunnerXBT Insights
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Market thoughts/commentary of @RunnerXBT
Serious topics only - no shitposting or memes

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1.4b reserves is ~2 yr of divident payments
the fact that this is even a headline makes me a little uneasy

dilluting risk / not very reasurring headline to say the least
Forwarded from infinityhedge
Microstrategy's Strategy to Fund USD Reserve: INFINITYHEDGE

Above 1x mNAV:
*Issue Common Equity

Below 1x mNAV:
*Sell Bitcoin
*Sell Bitcoin Derivatives
like what type of Red dildo is upon us, the monent a singular satoshi is sold by Saylor
Dont worry Saylor will sell BTC to buy Monad

(probably Haseeb from Dragoncuck capital)
Bitcoin will be just fine, with or without Saylor

have a great weekend everyone (i am aware its Monday)
sorry for the shitposts, serious post now.
I do expect massive ETF outflows because Saylors game is clearly "gone"

a BTC strategy company has built a USD reserve so that they can pay their debt obligations

There is zero logical reasons to be long MSTR, any copycats or any of Saylors shitty product, I can see a world where lots of people longed IBIT since they seen how good MSTR did

all this is dead.
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it works both ways, I guess
First day Bitcoin outperforming TradFi since 10/10

🤙🏼🤙🏼🤙🏼
RunnerXBT
BTC +$7000 since these buys, higher 🫡
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BTC almost +$9000 since these buys, higher

Currently approaching Yearly Open (which I expected to be a support when we slid down 2 weeks ago) - so wouldnt be surprised if its a bit of resistance for now

Still targeting 100-105k range to exit our leveraged positions on BTC.
imagine getting liquidated because Coinbase wont load

lmfao we are not serious industry
Forwarded from infinityhedge
CLOUDFLARE DOWN AGAIN ⚠️

COINBASE, UPBIT EXCHANGE DOWN DUE TO CLOUDFLARE OUTAGE: INFINITYHEDGE

Coinbase: We're aware many users are currently unable to access Coinbase due to a Cloudflare outage.

CLOUDFLARE BACK ONLINE
Shall I repeat again which People are selling BTC again? 🥸
the ones that elected a pedo president
🇺🇸
Forwarded from infinityhedge
The Week Ahead: infinityhedge

Mon: Saylor expected to announce another BTC purchase

Tue:
*Twenty One (XXI) (Backed by Tether, Bitfinex, SoftBank & Cantor) expects to begin trading with more than 42k Bitcoin (third-largest BTC treasury)
*U.S. ADP, JOLTs

Wed:
*FOMC: expected hawkish cut; focus will be on Economic Projections, Powell Presser & dissents; BE: If Powell leans hawkish at the conference to appease hawkish regional Fed presidents, will it even matter anymore? After all, the next Fed chair — Hassett is the frontrunner — could join the board as soon as Feb, rendering Powell essentially a lame duck for the last few months of his chairmanship
*Oracle Earnings

Thu:
*Solana Breakpoint 2025: 11 to 13 Dec.
*Terra-Luna co-founder Do Kwon’s sentencing

Whole Week: OpenAI’s GPT-5.2 ‘code red’ response to Google is coming

ICYMI:
⊷ Cantor has cut its (Micro) Strategy price target by 60% To $229, down from $560
⊷ Bitcoin Is Set for First Yearly Split From Stocks in Decade
⊷ A cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) in the 2020s is highly unlikely. Even mid-2030s is ambitious according to a16z
⊷ JPM says Strategy’s stock has already priced in the risk of exclusion from major equity benchmarks
⊷ China’s central bank added to its gold reserves for a 13th straight month
⊷ Netflix to buy Warner Bros streaming businesses in a $72 billion deal.
⊷ Trump’s New National-Security Strategy calls for an end to NATO expansion & says EU needs to take primary responsibility for its own defense.
⊷ Apple suddenly undergoing its biggest personnel shake-up in decades, Apple’s Chip Chief (architect of Apple’s prized in-house chips effort) informed Cook he is seriously considering leaving, Apple is urgently pushing to keep him.

https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-70d
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Market has been selling off aggressively since Michael Saylor announced 1b BTC purchase from last week, it also confirms a theory that he is the (only) buyer at the moment.

It also gives reassurance to OG BTC holders who keep unloading nonstop, that Saylor is willing to provide liquidity.

Would love to see more buyers step in, with FOMC in 2 days, should be good environment for daytrading.
Its very repetitive and i dont want to bombard you with notifications, but im 95% confident this is some entity, as per usual during US session just TWAPing out of very large BTC position

BTC.D is -0.7% today alone, altcoins are holding up really well, this is BTC-specific selling
(off-topic - SORRY!)

as per my Twitter pinned post, I have grown extremely tired of current state of Twitter (mainly having to interact with people, infofi and surge of AI bots and X just does not care to fix it)

Twitter used to be INCREDIBLE tool and place to learn, get alpha, get resources, but after Elon it just became Instagram but for lonely gamblers, bleh, just like with everything in life, its time to grow and move on.

TLDR, if you only care about trading/markets, this Telegram is the place to be. Unfollowing on Twitter is not mandatory, but recommended 🫡

Good luck to us in 2 hrs for FOMC 🫡
FOMC couldnt have gone any better, as seen in tradfi basically touching ATH, Gold Ripping, VIX making multi-month lows and DXY freefalling

Despite being the most directionally LONG BTC that I have ever been in my "trading career" (lol), it might be time for me to re-think my thesis as for why I am long an asset class that underperformed everything else and has this infinite selling pressure coming from 🇨🇳 exchanges (sorry, canadian)

for now, still giga long but every time I am reminded that I am simply wrong