RunnerXBT Insights
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Market thoughts/commentary of @RunnerXBT
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Nvidia earnings November 19th & New Moon November 20th

This sounds like a cry for help, but lets see if this can be a bit of "risk-on"
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Absolutely diabolical level of retard
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Forwarded from Frens Market Feeds
Strategy has acquired 8,178 BTC for ~$835.6 million at ~$102,171 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 27.8% YTD 2025. As of 11/16/2025, Strategy hodl 649,870 BTC acquired for ~$48.37 billion at ~$74,433 per bitcoin. — link
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chat, this shit looks cooked for a while
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real bullrun was friends we made along the way, right?
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unlike Saylor, I will go down with the BTC ship
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https://x.com/DegenerateNews/status/1990648017657971133?s=20

so now not only Larry Fink is selling, Saylor is broke & satoshi era OGs are nonstop selling

now also Mt.Gox is moving billions in coins...

god damn lol
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Twitter is down, OpenAI is down, crypto bags are down

lmaoo
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RunnerXBT
Photo
Nvidia earnings tomorrow seem to be a big pivotal event that should give us direction in the short term

There is a lot of fear regarding "AI bubble"
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there isnt much to add to this anymore

everybody here read many times over, that Bitcoin is being aggressively sold by OG wallets from Satoshi era, BlackRock has had biggest outflow day, Saylor is without money (blabla, just repeating myself)

= more sellers than buyers,

I do have a lot of BTC spot longs and perp longs, but find it naive & stupid to increase my own exposure anymore, while TradFi is headed towards ATH, and we lost every "support" I had on my chart

I do not mind holding BTC for multi-month period if needed, but I am really struggling to find (any) bull-thesis for crypto, because everything seems to have been invalidated

TLDR:
- im long spot BTC
- will buy more spot BTC (but much much lower)
- was wrong about the bounce 🤷‍♂️
- bears are gay
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to me right now its about "When" rather than buying "picobottom"

entire rally from January 2024 was on the backs of ETF inflows and Saylor ability to raise tens of Billions of dollar

reality is, as of today, ETFs are selling a LOT, and Saylor is going on national TV getting others to buy and tweet shit like "HODL"

reflexivity works both ways
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Someone is trying really hard all US session to push this a LOT lower

This is the easiest example of orderflow i have even seen, just market selling all day long

Its Binance by the way (being the absolute biggest seller)

what surprises me the most, there are close to no "short covering" in all of this dump, just more and more sellers
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Kraken Raising at 20b val
Kalshi Raising at 10b val
Polymarket Raising at 14b val
DATs raised fuck ton of money ( just to buy the top lol)

if only these big funds who invest into space actually bought BTC instead of buying another trash
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Binance has been offloading billions of dollars in BTC since CZ got pardoned

yes, its customers of Binance and Binance being the biggest exchange by a large margin, but still, fuck CZ & Trump
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I am actually VERY surprised BTC is still trading this high given how much is being sold on the market, all day, everyday for multiple weeks now

(translation for slow homies who will cry that I am bearposting: There is a lot of resting limit orders (people willing to buy) that are absorbing a pretty stunning ammount of sellers)
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Forwarded from infinityhedge
NVIDIA 3Q EARNINGS PREVIEW: INFINITYHEDGE

*Consensus: Beat & Raise
*Rev. EST.: $54.92B
*EPS EST.: $1.26
*7.2% Implied move in either direction for stock, the options-implied move would represent the largest one-day market value change for Nvidia (~$320 billion price swing).
*1.7% Implied Move in either direction for SPX
*SPX realized moves have been below the options implied moves in 7 of the past 10 NVDA earnings events (very muted reaction in the last two earnings)

*According to JPMorgan the so-called whisper rev. numbers are even higher. "Survey says $56.32b (Q3) & $63.02b (Q4)": INFINITYHEDGE

Key focus:
*guidance for next quarter and beyond next quarter
*any note on health of the cash flow
*insights into the $500B Datacenter rev. forecast in combined orders for 2025 & 2026
*details about OpenAI deployments in terms of timing, rev. in CY26; Blackwell, Rubin ramp in CY26; about deal with Nokia, Intel investment and China licenses
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*NVIDIA 3Q ADJ EPS $1.30

*NVIDIA 3Q REV. $57.01B, EST. $55.19B

*NVIDIA 3Q ADJ GROSS MARGIN 73.6%

*NVIDIA 3Q DATA CENTER REVENUE $51.2B, EST.

*NVIDIA SEES 4Q REV. $63.70B TO $66.30B, EST. $61.98B$49.34B
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RunnerXBT
average FOMC experience with Fartcoin, especially when SOL is strong, its insane beta, so volatile & pretty liquid
(serious post)

I have again, reduced my exposure ty Fartcoin because my position was getting uncomfortably large and its +25% in last 12 hours

It loves to trend for few days then full-retrace the move completely

My favorite (and decently liquid pair to open/close multiple hundred thousand positions at the time with ease)
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