average FOMC experience with Fartcoin, especially when SOL is strong, its insane beta, so volatile & pretty liquid

Trump/Winnieh the pooh meeting

The meeting is set to begin at 11 a.m. local time (10 p.m. Wednesday ET).

This is an incredible outcome, I feel like

TRUMP: WILL REDUCE CHINA FENTANYL TARIFF TO 10%

TRUMP: TARIFFS ON CHINA WILL BE 47% DOWN FROM 57%

CHINA TO BUY SOYBEANS IMMEDIATELY

ALL THE RARE EARTH ISSUE HAS BEEN SETTLED

IT'S A ONE-YEAR AGREEMENT THAT WILL BE EXTENDED

GOING TO CHINA IN APRIL

as far as I am concerned, this is pretty good "for now" with regards to China (rare earths & tariffs headlines are "behind" us)

next up Today:
- ECB meeting (deciding interest rates changes)
- end of MegaETH ICO (5hrs 30min to go)
- last Monad Boxes/Airdrop today -> potentially Tokenomics or more details soon
*Apple, Amazon, Coinbase, Microstrategy, Reddit, Roblox, Eli Lilly earnings

Microstrategy Q3 Earnings Call later today

Saylor was unable to buy anything meaningful past few 1,5months or so, i expect them to announce some new "product" that will help them buy some more BTC, as they are clearly losing momentum, mNAV is basically gone too

there is now MSTR, STRC, STRK, STRF and STRD

https://x.com/Strategy/status/1983920860189659211

every single altcoin today been thru a 9/11 with Bitcoin being down -1,75%

/end_of_discussion

with each launch of VC-backed project

I am more and more becoming BTC & Hyperliquid-pilled

will avoid dropping names going forward, but its just years of evidence of this claim for you to see from past 2 cycles 🫡

fell asleep only 3 times during this, sorry if you watched this nothingburger because of me

I will do better in the future 🙏

Such a good Telegram channel (Infinityhedge)

The Week Ahead: infinityhedge

Mon:
*Hong Kong financial summit from 3 to 5 Nov.; Goldman’s Solomon, Morgan Stanley’s Ted and BlackRock’s Larry & Citadel’s Griffin will speak
*U.S. Gov shutdown enters its 34th day (On Track to be longest in history)
*Saylor expected announce another BTC purchase
*U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
*Palantir Earnings

Tue:
*U.S. court will hear arguments for Sam Bankman-Fried’s appeal (a new trial or reversal of conviction) at 10am ET; If the panel of judges gets deeply involved with the hearing that may be a sign that it is considering whether to order a new trial OR if hearing is short & quick means court affirming the conviction
*Monad timeline/Tokenomics something expected ?
*AMD, Super Micro Earnings

Wed:
*U.S. Treasury quarterly refunding: Treasury (likely keeping guidance unchanged)
*U.S. October ADP employment report, ISM Services PMI
*US Supreme Court hears arguments on the legality of about 60% of Trump’s tariffs (IEEPA)
*Robinhood, arm, qualcomm earnings

Thu:
*Tesla shareholders will vote on Musk’s $1 Trillion pay package
*Samourai Wallet devs Sentencing 11am ET

Fri: China Gold Reserves this week

TBA/Whole Week: Worldwide Oct. services & PMIs, U.S. Gov data expected to be delayed due to the shutdown, All eyes will also be on whether U.S. lawmakers can agree to end the shutdown, & Investors will be looking for any evidence of weakness in the labor market or evidence that inflation is slowing to increase Dec. rate cut odds which has dropped to 50% from 99% after powell’s presser.

ICYMI:
*Earnings Beats Almost Across the Board for Mag 7; S&P 500 Reporting Double-Digit Earnings Growth for 4th Straight Quarter, last time the S&P 500 reported 4 consecutive Q's of double-digit earnings growth was Q1 2021 through Q4 2021. Analysts believe S&P 500 will report double-digit earnings growth in 4 of the next 5 Q's (through Q4 2026)
*There will not be "nuclear explosions," energy secretary says on Trump's call to test weapons
*OpenAI May Target $1 Trillion Valuation in IPO; OpenAI is giving Microsoft a 27% ownership stake worth about $135B, It will also continue to receive 20% of OpenAI’s revenue; OpenAI Made a $12 Billion Loss Last Quarter.
*On Oct. 28, three new crypto spot ETFs began trading in the U.S. markets, In the coming months, more ETFs are expected to target assets that meet the new generic listing standards, potential candidates could include DOGE, BCH, LINK, XLM, AVAX, SHIB, DOT and ADA.
*Bank of Korea May Buy Gold from a medium- to long-term perspective, for the first time in more than a decade
*Buffett’s Berkshire Cash Hits $382 Billion.
*Balancer Hit by $110M Exploit (hacked for 3rd time now); Berachain validators purposefully halt the Berachain network as the core team performs an emergency hard fork to address Balancer V2 related exploits.
*MSFT CEO says "the biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it's a power. And it's sort of the ability to get the builds done fast enough, close to power. So if you can't do that, you may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can't plug in. And in fact, that is my problem today, right? It's not a supply issue of chips. It's actually the fact that I don't have warm shells to plug into": Source in substack

https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-2cf

crypto "indexes" YTD (year-to-date)

source:
https://x.com/0xlaiyuen/status/1985210838765162827

Saylor bout to buy gigafucktn of BTC

sources later; im running

Wrong..

TLDR just a new SEC prospectus/filling regarding ATM program of Strategy & the fact they launched new European product

sorry for providing fake bullhopium

bears are gay regardless

this next to the fact that since US open started, BTC is just getting nonstop hammered

I (hope) this is just a massive ETF outflow day and that the punishment ends in 3 hours when American markets close for the day

Usually Altcoins would be -20% not doing better than BTC

If its not massive ETF outflows, I didnt find some OG whales selling at least past 48 hrs, then its gg

fkn americans selling the very first second they got an opportunity

OCTOVER STATS: INFINITYHEDGE

*MORE THAN $45B LIQUIDATED IN CRYPTO POSITIONS
*INVESTORS LOST $10B+ IN DAT'S
*~$100M LOST IN CRYPTO EXPLOITS
*CRYPTO MARKET LOST $1T, DOWN 25% FROM RECORD HIGH
*MSTR DOWN 32%, CRCL DOWN 30%, COIN DOWN 20%, GLXY DOWN 40%
*DAT'S: BMNR DOWN 40%, SBET DOWN 40%, FORD DOWN 60% (SOL)
*ETF FLOWS: BTC +$0.2B; ETH -$0.5B
*ALMOST ALL DAT'S MNAV DROPPED BELOW 1, MSTR MNAV DROPPED TO ALMOST 1
*BTC DOWN 19%, ETH DOWN 29%, SOL DOWN 33%, XRP DOWN 27%, BNB DOWN 29%
*MOST OCT. U.S. LAYOFFS SINCE 2003
*LONGEST U.S. GOV SHUTDOWN
*S&P 500 +0.7%, GOLD +1.7%, DOLLAR INDEX +1.7%, NVDA +6%, GOOGL +16%, META -10%

The Week Ahead: infinityhedge

Mon:
*Longest U.S. Gov shutdown enters its 41th day
*Saylor expected announce another BTC purchase
*CBOE to launch continuous futures contracts for BTC & ETH
*Coinbase to launch some Launchpad or something

Wed:
*Fed’s Barr, Williams, Waller, Paulson speaks
*Circle earnings

Thu: Fed’s Hammack speaks

TBA/Whole Week:
*All eyes will also be on whether U.S. lawmakers can agree to end shutdown.
*US Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump’s tariffs (IEEPA) continues *U.S. Gov data expected to be delayed due to the shutdown.

BE: Even if the gov were to reopen, it’s unlikely BLS would be able to collect & process data for both the Oct. and Nov. CPI reports ahead of the Dec FOMC meeting.

ICYMI:
⊷ Borrowing to fund Al datacenter exploded in Sept & Oct; BofA data shows $75B of U.S. investment grade debt issued by AI-focused Big Tech hit the market in Sept. & Oct. alone, more than double the sector’s average annual issuance of $32B btw 2015-2024. Plus A surge in Oracle credit default swaps shows investors are worried about the U.S. tech giant’s debt levels. Also OpenAI Asks US to Expand Chips Tax Credit to AI Data Centers: infinityhedge
⊷ CFTC’s Pham Moves to Launch Spot Crypto Trading Without Congress as soon as next month. Pham has held talks with CFTC-regulated DCMs exchanges like CME, Cboe Futures, ICE Futures, Coinbase Derivatives, Kalshi and Polymarket US, about launching spot crypto trading products involving margin, leverage, and financing.
⊷ U.S. Senate on Sunday moved forward on a measure aimed at reopening gov. Senate adjourned until Monday & has not yet scheduled a vote for final passage. House also needs to approve the measure, House passage is not guaranteed. It’s not yet clear how quickly the shutdown can end. Senate will need the consent of all members to end the shutdown quickly. Any one senator can force days of procedural delays. Prediction Markets expecting shutdown will end btw 12-15th Nov with 80% odds.
⊷ The combined amount of crypto loans reached $73.6B in the 3Q, surpassing the previous record of $69.4B set in the 4Q of 2021
⊷ Microsoft's Longest Selloff Since 2011 as AI Trade Weakens; Meta Tumbles Most Since 2022 Metaverse Selloff.
⊷ China’s central bank purchased gold for its reserves for a 12th straight month

https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-9c0

a lot of alpha can be found in BTC spot CVD past few weeks

generally speaking, CVDs pretty much always (on higher timeframes) trend down

but some of these past days sell-off, its just vertically down, even on LTFs, I do find it a very useful tool for daytrading BTC past few weeks

it is no surprise tho, there is this infinite amount of OG BTC holders selling and Saylor and ETFs are not buying at all.

we for sure know that Saylor is basically broke, ETFs might come back when US gov shutdown ends (vote is tomorrow afaik)