RunnerXBT Insights
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Market thoughts/commentary of @RunnerXBT
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RunnerXBT
not doing victory laps just yet but man, does it feel good when billionaires take a weekend off then show up on Monday US Open and send it all higher (ETFs & TradFi & TreasuryCo’s)
I will be taking profits on my longs probably today/tomorrow (before weekend)

very solid intra-week moves captured & will see how market reacts to next weeks CPI print

we were blessed with incredible amount of good headlines & tradfi pretty much at ATH again
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TradFi back to All-Time-Highs
VIX 15-16 handle, DXY back 97-98 handle

Feels like every bad or good headline in macro leads to tradfi pushing significantly higher

I am taking profits on my pretty much bottom buys as per this TG chat. Trump is signing the 401k EO in a bit.

Happy weekend
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I already regret taking profit...

Trump putting his "people" into FED (Miran) & forcing Tech Giants into "Pay to play" model

Will see if I can get positioned again around CPI, if not ill cry "only being 100% spot long BTC"

Whilst ETH, does seem like a much better option with tens of billions of dollars of buying pressure for ETH

To put some numbers in perspective

3.2% of all ETH was purchased by ETFs & Treasury companies in past few weeks & almost 30% of all ETH is staked === it does not take a lot of money to move ETH upwards violently.
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RunnerXBT Insights pinned Β«Solana Bull-case for Q4 (please read - Q4, not Q3!) TLDR version: ETFs will get approved in October, more Solana Treasury Companies to prop up & Q4+Q1 crypto seasonality Longer version: We have all seen what happens to a coin when it gets solid ETF inflows…»
There are 3 major SOL DATs
1) Galaxy 1.65b (track them at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/address/88ao9M7PuNoyubW575bhUM6S6wbrVPUwUxsvy8EXBxtH -> if I read Arkham data correctly, already bought in 1,4b range)
2) Pantera (TBA) but 0.5-1b range -> purchased 0 so far on the open market
3) UAE DAT (TBA) but 0.5-1b range -> purchased 0 so far on the open market

We have seen what happened to BTC with DATs (Saylor) -> number went up
We have seen what happened to ETH with DATs (Tom Lee) -> number went up
Now SOL is mooning, because of DATs

For some reason so much online discourse was that its "all locked SOL", price suggests it wasnt locked SOL...

& SOL ETFs are coming up in next 30-45 days from today, if BlackRock was to file for an SOL ETF, I will be longing again, no matter the price

(i will post like once a month cya :3)
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1.05b liquidation hour
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now 1.65b day
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In last 2-3 years majority of new launches on its TGE (TGE = Token Generation Event) dump very quickly, occasionaly a "quality" project does "Airdrop Fractal" (meaning: a rapid sell-off on TGE followed by price recovery in the following days), it is so because it is in everyones interest, to have a new project list on Tier 1 exchanges (Binance, ByBit....) at highest FDV possible, a fairly recent popular "approach" has been listing pre-market, but that rarely allows you to put in any meaningful size

It has become such "consensus" that seeing something like Plasma (XPL) in past few days is a very stand-out (and rare) example

this is not a Hyperliquid bullpost, per se, but there is a reason why Hyperliquid (Ticker "HYPE") did so well, because there are no VCs.

There is no need to be upset. VCs and big funds are not your friends, their job is to take your money and one of the "easiest" way is to create a wealth-effect by having people be up massive multiples, while the loudest cheerleaders on the social media are calling it second coming of jesus

While, they are dumping on Uneducated plebz (picture me surprised that people that got a liquid 20x are taking profits and or hedging their positions)

and thats why I love BTC <3
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person/VC who is up 200x is writing a 1/10 🧡bullpost why they are bullish on (THEIR BAGS) to a person on Twitter "joined March 2024" that is looking for 200x
spoiler: they are looking in the wrong place
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what is better in your opinion

TGE straight -40% then recovery ("airdrop fractal") or 2x after TGE, straight into -50% days after?
Final Results
79%
TGE dump -> recovery
21%
TGE pump -> Full Retrace
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one sec im retarded
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RunnerXBT
what is better in your opinion

TGE straight -40% then recovery ("airdrop fractal") or 2x after TGE, straight into -50% days after?
i much rather prefer #1, especially for newcomers who disregard FDV and or how much are early investors up.

as #2 is "rare" that makes people think "this time is different" and they FOMO in a parabolic chart
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Basically full-retrace

this is no longer a short-setup that makes sense to me

that DOES NOT mean, that I think its a good long here either

== short trade is done for me anyways
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if you ever see me bullpost
low float high FDV coin that has participation from usual suspects (VCs & CT Accounts hiding that they work for a fund/VC)

assume one of the two
1) i am up 200x
2) i was paid a lot of money to shill

or actually 3) I only say positive things on the timeline because everybody else does so, and I want to β€œbe part of it” β€” to be liked by my peers (which most of you know that I dont give a shit about)
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you are making the wrong people rich

thanks for yet another binance listing (T1 exchange) of high FDV scam backed by our lovely VCs 🀷🏼

β€œdouble zero” instant nuke (the usual suspects β€” Solana Cabal & all theirfriends)

every chart the usual suspects are involved with looks like this (rhymes with "Pump")
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bitcoin bears are gay
- Larry Fink (BlackRock / IBIT)
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i got a feeling we will be seeing above 1b daily inflows for BTC

per day

for the new homies:
- ETFs buy (or sell) BTC during US session hours (3:30 pm to 10 pm Prague time - do the conversion yourself via Google)
- ETFs do NOT buy during Weekends and Public holidays
- ETF inflows data have T+1 day delay (where to check https://farside.co.uk/btc/)

therefore, ignore retards like Ansem who will retweet their bearish tweets on sunday evening when Larry Fink is waiting to buy a few billy worth of BTC in matter of hours
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Why is BTC going up?

- Denominator is worthless (US dollar)
- US gov is running it hot while cutting rates
- Dollar -11% since Trump got into office

If anything, I feel like BTC is seriously lagging behind Gold and TradFi

BTC is single best asset of mine and yours lifetime, no need to overthink it

TLDR: BTC good, new TGE high FDV scams = short

Back to hiatus πŸƒ
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Dollar such a shitcoin that even Europeans are doing victory laps

Dollar being shit benefits OUR bags
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Kind Regards
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Vertical line = US open

CVDs going full retard, OI as well πŸ€·β€β™‚οΈ
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