RunnerXBT Insights
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Market thoughts/commentary of @RunnerXBT
Serious topics only - no shitposting or memes

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Forwarded from infinityhedge
*TRUMP: IRAN MUST MAKE A DEAL, BEFORE THERE IS NOTHING LEFT

*TRUMP: UNITED STATES MAKES THE BEST AND MOST LETHAL MILITARY EQUIPMENT ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD, BY FAR, AND THAT ISRAEL HAS A LOT OF IT, WITH MUCH MORE TO COME - AND THEY KNOW HOW TO USE IT. IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE
best thing to happen to crypto this year
Forwarded from 方程式新闻 BWEnews
BWENEWS: PumpFun's Twitter account suspended

方程式新闻: PumpFun的Twitter帐户已被暂停

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2025-06-17 03:29:56
RunnerXBT
*TRUMP: IRAN MUST MAKE A DEAL, BEFORE THERE IS NOTHING LEFT *TRUMP: UNITED STATES MAKES THE BEST AND MOST LETHAL MILITARY EQUIPMENT ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD, BY FAR, AND THAT ISRAEL HAS A LOT OF IT, WITH MUCH MORE TO COME - AND THEY KNOW HOW TO USE IT. IT WILL…
image_2025-06-24_00-17-46.png
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Israel & USA vs. Iran lasted... 2 weeks - so a little shorter than Trumps Tariffs

Markets should be completely cleared of "war risk", Crude Oil was not buying it at all last couple,

TradFi a few % away from new all-time-highs
if there is any takeaway from Trump presidency so far — nothing him or his cabinet have to say should be taken at face value - trading headlines around him flip-flopping has been a profitable venture

since this "war" is out of the way - hopefully more constructive thoughts in the coming days.

Gn 💤
It is no secret that I like BTC (in this chat you will find regular bias towards "long BTC/short ALT" setups as it was a money printer for past 3 years)

TLDR: As long as IBIT is buying and TradFi is not nuking, BTC will continue going upwards. Being net-short BTC is single worst trade one could have, if you are bearish crypto - just short basket of altcoins

I think that currently the entire market is quite straight forward and its all BTC show. That is caused by few entities (ETFs & Saylor)

IBIT (Blackrock spot ETF) purchases of BTC
last 1M: $3.67b
last 3M: $11.71b
last 12M: $34b
All time: $51.65b

Saylor purchases of BTC
last 1M: $1.26b
last 3M: $8.15b
last 12M: $27b

& there are now countless of MSTR copycats (Metaplanet, Nakamoto, 21, even notorious grifter Anthony Pompliano bought just shy of 400m of BTC (to buy 600m more)

I know that I repeat myself a lot with todays update, but its never been more straight forward and clear narrative for BTC upside & outperformance

Michael Saylor paved the way, he was a true "pioneer" when it comes to institutional adoption, as for Michael Saylor and MSTR, for him to keep deploying billions and billions per week, MSTR NAV prem must be at least in 1.8x range for them to deploy lots of ATMs.

Some very useful links where you can keep track of everything mentioned (all free, of course)
- https://saylortracker.com/ (Saylor Premium & overview)
- https://bitcointreasuries.net/ (List of biggest BTC Insti holders)
- https://farside.co.uk/btc/ (BTC spot ETF inflows)

Realistically, I dont see anything changing, any time soon for overall "crypto narrative" - its BTC season, and if TradFi goes down a lot and BTC spot ETF inflows slow down and or go negative, then altcoins will go 2 meters under the ground.

We just had a "12 day war" in middle east, yet Nasdaq made a fresh new-all-time-highs yesterday
- Dollar is consistently making new multi-year lows and is super weak
- FED will cut rates (as soon as in July FOMC 5 weeks from now)

Altcoins have been consistently weak as apart from very select few (as of late: HYPE, ETH, Fartcoin) have constant unlocks and unlimited & predatory vesting schedules and tokenomics, where despite coins being down -80%, early backers are still up high multiples and will continue selling it towards guaranteed zero.

Past few months there have been multiple types of trades and setups we took:

1) news-trading around Trump & his cabinet contradicting themselves every few hrs (effective, but very time consuming for intra-day moves)
2) crypto equities/PIPE/SPAC deals (look at SBET, Circle, COIN & many others) - you can size well into these
3) short UpBit listings (they tend to retrace in first 48 hrs post pump)
4) hold spot BTC & never sell your spot BTC :)

Have a beautiful day & go, Bitcoin!
but I also understand the following..

- am I a buyer of BTC here at 106-107k with TradFi at ATH? well, personally, no.
- but each year you have a flash-crash (August 5th 2024), so if I was sitting on large stack of cash/stables, I would wait for opportunity like that to load up on BTC, that I would - not - sell
https://x.com/APompliano/status/1937861252417544653

another 120m worth of BTC purchased, BTC is definitely trading as such too

man I love bitcoin
ETFs did another +550m yesterday and Dollar making new multi-year lows each day last few months (reminds me of Altcoins against BTC)
Forwarded from infinityhedge
DXY DOLLAR INDEX FALLS TO 3-YEAR LOW, DOWN 11% YTD
yet another 1 billion buyer for BTC
Forwarded from 方程式新闻 BWEnews
Phoenix: BAKKT HOLDINGS FILES $1 BILLION SHELF OFFERING, MAY USE PROCEEDS TO PURCHASE BITCOIN

Phoenix: BAKKT控股公司提交10亿美元的搁架发行申请,或将使用收益购买比特币

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2025-06-27 06:05:39
TRUMP: BITCOIN TAKES PRESSURE OFF THE DOLLAR
a likely reason why TradFi and BTC are doing so well —- dollar is putting in worst performance since our parents were born..
Forwarded from infinityhedge
*US DOLLAR INDEX FALLS 10.8% IN BIGGEST H1 LOSS SINCE 1973
I will start posting significantly more in Telegram (here)

Twitter experience has completely died for me, app is unusable, noone is discussing trades/trading setups/charts anymore

its just AI slop and replybots/scammers/shitcoin shillers and airdrop farming/paid shill maxxing

sad, but it is what it is
a trade I took yesterday was

SOL/USD short after "Rex-ETF announcement"

reasoning was very simple, DB posted

"*REX-OSPREY SOLANA ETF WITH STAKING SET TO BEGIN TRADING WEDS, CEO SAYS"

No-one, absolutely no-one heard of "Rex-Osprey" as ETF issuer before, so I assumed its a complete nothingburger

The issuers that are imo-worth it are Fidelity (please see James Seyffarts post)

https://x.com/JSeyff/status/1939795594148540610
SOL ETF "final dates" are in mid-october

SOL ETFs with Staking will be approved, i just dont expect them to be approved (or relevant) in early July - hence the intraday short.
these two drama queens make our bags go up and down…
Forwarded from infinityhedge
TRUMP, ASKED ABOUT DEPORTING MUSK, SAYS HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK
RunnerXBT
I will start posting significantly more in Telegram (here) Twitter experience has completely died for me, app is unusable, noone is discussing trades/trading setups/charts anymore its just AI slop and replybots/scammers/shitcoin shillers and airdrop farming/paid…
(I will post more, but refuse to post the regular stuff like "oooh ETFs are buying, Saylor is buying"

yeah no shit, they are and will continue to do so)

Interesting argument I made people make is that we have a brand new Quarter (Q3) and H2 that could lead to some rebalancing in tradfi portfolios (might explain the BTC & ETH strength today)

happy weekend & see you next week