🇮🇳🇵🇰 - Situation regarding the alleged clashes in the Sialkot direction:

There were reports regarding Pakistan being 'surrounded' on three sides in a bottle-neck in a potential conflict - which looks true on a map. However, the situation on the ground is the complete opposite - it is India at risk of being encircled.

Rerum Novarum have geolocated all of India's and Pakistan's observational posts in this area, with Pakistan also having a key helipad base at 32.8384, 74.70361. The point at which this is located is vitally strategic.

India's Pargwal front relies entirely on two key supply routes, the first via Pargwal Bridge, at 32.80412, 74.59053. And the second is a land route through the town of Raj Pora 32.83897, 74.68163 (shaded red region on the map). A river runs in front of a small mountain range, River Chenab, which prevents easy access into the region. Due to the terrain, the Pargwal Bridge took years to complete construction, evident from recent Sentinel-2 satellite imagery (Google still shows an uncomplete bridge).

Pakistan's operation in the area will be likely be reminiscent of the failed Ukraine's Kursk-Koronevo operation. But unlike Ukraine, Pakistan will need to strike a single bridge, instead of 3, and not worry about possible pontoon crossing replacements. And also unlike Ukraine, the encirclement point for Pakistan lies right on its border (shaded in red) - Pakistan's border is just 700m from Chenab River, if reached and assuming the bridge has been put out of operational use, it will prevent Indian supplies to the Pargwal front.

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