Democrats are not hitting the numbers they need in the Early-in-Person and Vote-by-Mail to counteract a Red Wave on Election Day. We'd expect a turnout drop between a presidential election and a midterm, but the current decrease is jaw-dropping.

The best estimates I've seen show the total early vote has decreased by a whopping 60% compared to 2020, which appears much higher than we'd expect from a presidential to midterm cycle. Early voting in many states will close by this weekend.

Worse for Democrats, their share of the early vote has decreased too. At this point in 2020, Democrats held an estimated 15% advantage in the early vote. Right now, Democrats hold a national lead of about 12%.

In crucial battlegrounds, Democrats have seen significant tightening.

AZ
2020: D-44/R-34
2022: D-40/R-37

FL
2020: D-42/R-37
2022: D-38/R-43

NV
2020: D-43/R-35
2022: D-40/R-38

OR
2020: D-48/R-26
2022: D-42/R-34

Democrats are maintaining their 2020 % share in some states like IA, NM, and PA. But because the volume of early vote is considerably lower, it raises the specter that Democrats may not be able to withstand a large GOP turnout on ED, which appears likely at this point.

Last, there's reason to believe Democrats are struggling in some places to turn out their core consistency groups. For example, in Georgia, the Black early vote turnout has steadily declined. | Follow: @electionwizard

Suburban women shift from supporting Democrats to GOP ahead of midterms: poll

https://thepostmillennial.com/suburban-women-shift-from-supporting-democrats-to-gop-ahead-of-midterms-poll?utm_campaign=64502

BREAKING: Fed chair Jerome Powell says 'there's no sense that inflation is coming down'
https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-fed-chair-jerome-powell-says-theres-no-sense-that-inflation-is-coming-down?utm_campaign=64502

READ: Elon Musk trolls AOC in series of Tweets.

QUESTION: Who in the U.S. Government requested Twitter to flag Jesse's tweet???

POLL: Oklahoma Governor

*Stitt (R): 52%
Hoffmeister (D): 39%
Other: 5%
Undecided: 4%

500 LV | 10/28-10/31 | ± 4.4%

TUCKER: "Standing at this monument to his own failures [Union Station], Biden proceeded to do what he now so commonly does, bark at the rest of us for our moral failures. The guy who showered with his daughter is telling you you’re a bad person."

https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1587967989676122112?s=20&t=pm-EawbOWHuZ2sjn7zaCiQ