Percy's Archive
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OSINT / Mapping / Weapon ID / Analysis.
Gaza-Iran-Israel.
Co-Owner of t.iss.one/GeoPWatch
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Percy's Archive
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - At least 10 USAF Tankers, some with ADS-B airborne in the region, 5 of them taking off from the Emirates, amidst the suspected currently ongoing aggression by the UAE on Iran's province of 'Hormozgan'.
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - USAF "P-8A Poseidon" ASUW aircraft in north-eastern Saudi Arabia.
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Percy's Archive
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - At least 10 USAF Tankers, some with ADS-B airborne in the region, 5 of them taking off from the Emirates, amidst the suspected currently ongoing aggression by the UAE on Iran's province of 'Hormozgan'.
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - Now up to at least 15 USAF tankers with ADS-B, most of them in near Emirati airspace.
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ญโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - USN "P-8A Poseidon" ASUW took from Bahrain a short while ago.

Another "P-8A Poseidon" was airborne near the very south of Iran in a maritime surveillance operation earlier.
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Apologies, haven't been posting due to investing more time for personal matters.

However, I've a few points I'd like to highlight on:

1. The CNN reports that discussed some BDA, regarding how Iranian IADS was not damaged effectively, and how unaffected the UGFs are despite repeated airstrikes should come to no surprise. It's what has been told on the OSINT sphere since the start, and the CENTCOM knew this, but is gradually informing the masses.

2. The battle is expected to reset though in a different approach.

3. The Emirates 100% had directly participated in the strikes on Iran with it's own air force. The Saudi Airforce conducted near constant surveillance but direct strikes is unknown.

4. This ISR trend continues on a daily basis, with continuous flights including fighter jet sorties across the region.

4. Hezbollah's FPV drone strikes effectiveness is only sharply increasing, as I said they would previously. The IDF's freedom of movement within the occupied territories in southern Lebanon have been ceased so effectively across nearly all axis due to this drone threat.

5. The "ceasefire" in Lebanon is only partially in place, limiting large-scale airstrikes beyond the 'Litani' river and large-scale ground advancements. The IDF continues to advance with a reduced tempo to 'Haddatha', to which the IDF faced numerous losses.

6. The IDF's current focus is intelligence gathering to then target weapons production, logistic chains and manhunt commanders responsible of the FPV threat.

7. The AlQassam Brigades has up-ranked Muhammad Awda, the now former Director of Military Intelligence, to the Chief of Staff, replacing the late Izz ElDin AlHaddad, killed on the 15th of May.

Hamza Abu AlFiad, the former Commander of the Beit Hanoun Battalion was up-ranked to Deputy of the Chief of Staff.

8. The Board of Peace has demanded the full disarmament alongside the complete ceasing of ALL Hamas state operations, including Military, Security, and administrative activities, in heads of the deployment of an International stabilization force in the Gaza strip. Moreover, the IDF is expected to withdraw from the occupied territories if Hamas verifies complete disarmament.

The NCAG has claimed that Hamas prevented it's entry into Gaza.

Interesting days ahead.
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Percy's Archive
The battle is expected to reset though in a different approach.
If what's circulating is to succeed, then the entire notion regarding a renewed rounds of fighting that includes SOF incursions and a GCC coalition was an intimidation sham in attempt of getting Iran to submit.

Standing it's ground is what enabled it to overcome this, as every involved party knows military action is not effective against Iran's unconventional doctrine, proven by every previous rounds of fighting, and especially confirmed by the last one.
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An unprecedented reality to Israel in southern Lebanon. Fiber-optic drones have brought upon the IDF a literal state of paralysis, where troops are ordered to limit daylight movement to a minimum, and remain within buildings or armored vehicles. On the contrary, this also marks the IDF as "sitting-duck" targets .

The IDF has also been utilizing the use of blanket nettings around sites and static assets, though half-assed and ineffective. It is yet to majorly attempt to counter this cheap and deadly threat.

The scale of these strikes has only been growing in recent weeks. From soft-targeting single assets in the opening weeks, to the utilization of surveillance drones, and swarms of FPVs for coordinated attacks.

Noticeably, Hezbollah begun targeting multiple assets within a single base, forcing the IDF to withdraw; dismantling the sites. However, the drones are launched across a period of a week, likely as a safety measure against tracking.

Relying on nighttime for the IDF to maneuver will not last long, as Hezbollah begun the utilization of thermal-imagery FPVs.
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (percy)
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Local and family sources suggest the death of Muhammad Odeh, the Chief of Staff of the AlQassam Brigades, alongside his wife, as a result of an IAF "AGM-114 (Hellfire)" airstrike in northern Gaza's 'Rimal'.
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Geopolitics Watch
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Local and family sources suggest the death of Muhammad Odeh, the Chief of Staff of the AlQassam Brigades, alongside his wife, as a result of an IAF "AGM-114 (Hellfire)" airstrike in northern Gaza's 'Rimal'.
Hamas's 'AlMajd' Intelligence Apparatus has denied ongoing speculations regarding "spies" infiltrating within the AlQassam Brigades's ranks, and suggests that the IDF is exploiting information leaks from the less opsec protected family members instead, allowing them to trace their targets.
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (percy)
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ - The funeral of Muhammad Odeh, AlQassam Brigades's Chief of Staff, alongside his 2 sons, daughter and wife, after an IAF airstrike in northern Gaza's 'Rimal' yesterday.

"AK-74U" & "AK-103" rifles present.
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Geopolitics Watch
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Local and family sources suggest the death of Muhammad Odeh, the Chief of Staff of the AlQassam Brigades, alongside his wife, as a result of an IAF "AGM-114 (Hellfire)" airstrike in northern Gaza's 'Rimal'.
Yet another airstrike in northern Gaza, this time targeting the AlQassam Brigades Commander of the Northern Brigade, Izz ElDin AlBek, alongside the Deputy Commander of the Gaza Brigade & Commander of the 'Zeitoun' Battalion, Imad Asleem.

Very clearly the IDF's Southern Command has leveraged the ceasefire by conducting intense intelligence efforts and tracing the most high-value targets in the strip, particularly in the northern sector, evidently, exploiting the security weaknesses as a result of extreme infrastructure damage and significant causalities.

The greenlight for these attacks was given in the opening week of May. The IDF had already prepared for an AlQassam Brigades retaliation by establishing the dirt embankments between the strip and set up sites. Moreover, the rocket and missile threat was largely neutralized.

The previous offensive campaigns allowed the IDF to plant espionage assets, easing this ongoing security collapse. The presence and arming of Palestinian syndicate groups, that launch frequent raids and abduction operations into Hamas territory and uproot stability during ceasefire had also complicated the status of security for the AlQassam Brigades, especially considering continuous IDF logistic, air and intelligence support for these groups.

The IDF is possibly aiming to destroy the group's command structure and neutralize senior experience in lights of an upcoming round of assaults that aims to sweep the northern sector in particular and destroy the Palestinian resistance in Gaza file once and for all, as hinted months ago.
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people unironically believe this btw
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (percy)
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#BREAKING
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ - During a conference in the Ein Prat Leadership Academy in Israel yesterday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that his directive is to increase the occupation of Gaza onto 70% of It's territory, from the current 60%.

Following a comment by an audience member, Netanyahu expressed the will to steadily increase the occupation up to 100% of Gaza.
๐Ÿ“ Transcript [click to expand]:
Netanyahu: So, we are in a process where our power, we can leverage our power in several directions. If there is a need to crush Hezbollah. We are currently striking Hamas, yes. We are now at 60% of the territory of the Strip. You know, we were at 50%. We moved to 60%. My directive is to move to..."

The audience then calls out: "100! 100!"

He chuckles and responds: "Go in order. First of all, 70%. Let's start with that. We are striking them from all directions, and we will handle the rest."
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (percy)
Geopolitics Watch
#BREAKING ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ - During a conference in the Ein Prat Leadership Academy in Israel yesterday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that his directive is to increase the occupation of Gaza onto 70% of It's territory, from the current 60%. Following aโ€ฆ
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ - Presumably, the IDF is to achieve that goal through the already ongoing and gradual expansion of the yellow line, utilizing artillery fire and bulldozing the areas of advancements whilst avoid direct engagements, but is to do so in a more rapid pace.

This push serves as adding yet more pressure onto Hamas and the AlQassam Brigades, by further displacing the populations and expanding it's "security zones", to force them into
completely disarming and dissolving it's apparatuses, since the designated deadline had already expired.

Moreover, this is paired with the pressure of security collapse through high-ranking assassinations and continuous escalations that destabilize the strip.

Attached [1] is the estimated extent of expansion to occur. Do note that occupying the entire northern sector of Gaza [2] would also increase the extent of control to ~70%.
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Percy's Archive
#mapupdate ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Apologies for any inconvenience caused by the previous southern Lebanon map update. I received reports of such IDF positions and movements, which were not fully accurate. The (controversial) changes were revised and were indeed exaggerated.โ€ฆ
#mapupdate
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Significant updates in southern Lebanon since the last one.

The "ceasefire" allowed the IDF the freedom to act sweep the areas it had advanced towards, including 'Bint Jbeil', 'Beit Lif', and 'Rchaf'. Hezbollah however increased it's scale and intensity of attacks gradually, and begun the mass use of FPV drones, redefining the battlefield.

The FPV drone threat is by far the most effective means Hezbollah has utilized in it's history, as it had ceased, nearly fully, the IDF freedom of movement during daytime. The
introduction of thermal-equipped FPV drones meant the IDF cannot proceed in that and must act.

Therefore, the IDF has decided to limit it's presence in southern Lebanon, withdrawing 3 divisions out of 5, and proceeding to launch spearheads within the central axis in attempt to expand the battle lines and limit the activities of FPV drone operators.

The IDF has begun advancing towards 'Haddatha' from 'Rchaf' [3], and crossed the 'Litani' river from 'Deir Seryan', capturing 'Zawtar', 'Yohmor' and advancing towards
the 'Beaufort' castle. The IDF had also crossed 'Qantara' towards 'Ghandouriyeh' [2] and from 'Khiam' to 'Marjaayoun' [4].

Fierce clashes are ongoing in all mentioned advancements. The clashes include ATGM fire, point-blank engagements, alongside continued FPV drone attacks.
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