Stacy in Dataland (´⊙~⊙`)
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Stacy Muur’s alpha channel.
𝕏: https://x.com/stacy_muur
Blog: https://stacymuur.substack.com
Chat: @muur_talks
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USDe adoption is accelerating.

Holder count has nearly doubled since early last year, which tells us the synthetic dollar model is still finding product-market fit.
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Prediction markets are hitting escape velocity.

Kalshi crossed $2.7B in weekly volume – twice in a few weeks, and now they’re expanding to Brazil. Between the 2026 World Cup and presidential election, the country is basically a perfect stress test for event markets.
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Reality check: 83% of the top 100 coins are still down over the last 90 days.

Most of them won’t recover – сapital keeps concentrating into the few protocols that actually generate revenue and usage. That’s why names like $MORPHO, $SKY, and $HYPE keep outperforming.
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The lending sector is showing massive dispersion right now.

Some protocols are up ~30% since October, while others are down ~50% over the same window.

In cycles like this, conviction matters more than beta.
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Across ripping +75% after floating a token → equity conversion idea.

If it happens, it would be one of the first real attempts to turn a tokenized protocol into a privately owned company. Considering Across moved $20B+ in cross-chain volume, this could be the beginning of a bigger shift.
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Solana now leads stablecoin volume across chains.

Adjusted February share:

• Solana 36%
• Ethereum 30%
• Tron 15%
• Base 11%

If stablecoins are the settlement layer of crypto, this means Solana is starting to capture the flow layer.
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Crypto lending shrank hard.

Deposits dropped $125B → $79.6B (-36%) since October, and almost the entire decline came from a few giants like Aave, Spark, Euler, Fluid, and Compound.

Feels less like a collapse and more like capital rotating elsewhere.
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Perp DEXs' daily volume went from $7.5B (2024) → $22.7B (2025) → $30.6B (2026).

The growth curve is getting steeper, not flatter.

Looks like capital is moving from passive yield → active trading infrastructure.
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Interesting divergence in crypto equities.

Bitcoin proxy companies like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet look strong, while Circle appears stretched and miners still carry risk. ETF inflows and corporate accumulation continue reinforcing BTC’s digital safe haven narrative.
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Another big shift: crypto and fintech were among the worst performing sectors over the last 6 months, while cloud infra, biotech, materials, and robotics led the market.

This is why pure crypto portfolios are becoming risky. The next wave might be on-chain exposure to real-world equities, especially through tokenized stocks.

If platforms like xStocks, Ondo, and others scale, the TAM for crypto could expand massively without leaving the blockchain rails.
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Returning wallets tell a different story than narratives.

Tron (~3M), Near (~2.2M), BNB (~2.1M) are leading DAAs because they nailed distribution: Tron owns USDT rails, Near abstracts UX, BNB keeps fees near zero for retail.

Meanwhile ETH and L2s lag in raw users, but dominate capital. Users ≠ liquidity… yet, but chains that win both will define the next cycle.
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HIP-3 perps are showing ~60%+ retention after 3 months, vs ~27% for typical crypto perps.

That’s not normal – that’s product-market fit. Feels like traders stick because it’s real markets (commodities, equities) + clean UX + unified liquidity.
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Kalshi’s breakout was triggered by March Madness 2025.

Weekly volume jumped from ~$43M to $130M–$220M (3-5x) during the event… and never came back down. That’s classic product unlock via a high-attention catalyst.

Prediction markets need moments. Once users get hooked on trading real-world outcomes, volume sticks and compounds.
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AAVE flow flipped bearish right after the BGD exit.

Since the announcement, DEX activity shows $39M sells vs $32M buys (~$6.7M net outflow), with the initial reaction spiking to 2x normal volume.

Key contributors = core infrastructure. When they leave, liquidity reacts before narratives catch up.
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Stablecoin market keeps expanding (now $316B+), but the real shift is where the activity lives.

In February, Solana took ~37% of total stablecoin volume, flipping both Ethereum and Tron. At the same time, flow is rotating toward USDC (~72% of volume) – cleaner rails, more institutional usage.

Feels like the stack is evolving: Solana = execution layer, USDC = settlement asset. That combo starts to look very real for payments + global flows.
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Lido still controls ~$21B+ in staked assets, far ahead of competitors, yet its FDV doesn’t reflect that dominance.

We’ve got protocols with smaller TVL trading at comparable (or higher) valuations, while Lido remains the core liquidity layer of ETH staking.

Feels like the market is pricing in competition, but underestimating how sticky staking liquidity actually is.
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Hyperliquid Strategies ($PURR) is printing.

They deployed ~$129.5M into HYPE, now sitting on ~$78M unrealized profit and a $750M+ position (18.2M HYPE). That’s conviction capital scaling with the ecosystem.
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Capital is flowing back into crypto.

Across ETFs, DATs, and stablecoins, we’re seeing multi-billion inflows stack again across the entire stack.

That’s usually how real trends start. Not loud pumps but broad-based accumulation before price catches up.
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