Blue line = Total NFP

Red line = Goods-Producing NFP

Historically, manufacturing and construction payrolls tend to peak ahead of total payrolls, or services employment. Right now, goods-producing NFP has already peaked and is entering a slowdown phase.…

US 2s5s10s fly tracks the Fed cycle — 5yr usually outperforms until real cuts hit.

Friday’s ±8bp flip says it all. With Sep cut a done deal, 5yr edge is gone.

The fly is about to turn.

And 2s & 5s held April lows — classic double bottom setup.

Buy fade / sell Apr retest

expect Hard to see April lows breaking this week, for now

https://substack.com/@traderinkorea/note/c-153537399

One thing to note: this is just a tactical view.

Last week's NFP release confirms that employment is currently on an obvious downward trend. NFP is not easily recovered by just a few cuts, so I expect…

IG Credit view

Overall hit ratio on new issues is looking much weaker vs a few weeks ago. RMs are offloading credit as yields approach April lows — even with equities firmer & vols cheapening. 3yr FRN demand is also fading, All point to limited room for…

On FOMC day, I expect the Fed to lean more dovish than what markets are currently pricing. I place little weight on the dots or the SEP—this may move FFZ5, but should have only limited impact on the 5-10y yield. I believe the Fed stands on the dovish side…

The new CBBAU deal looks like a no-brainer. IPT is 40+bp wide vs outstanding bonds, and I expect solid demand given last week’s yield move higher and the WSTP FRN 07/30 trading in the 60s. My FV levels are ~43bp for the fixed and ~63bp for the FRN

All in yield accounts showing up on the bid today, suggesting they see this level as cheap. 5yr has given back the entire month’s rally, now roughly flat mtd. I added longs in 5s & 10s treasuries.

Prefer A- credits in the 6–7yr bucket, looking to roll both the Treasury and credit curves. Those maturities stand out on the credit curve. I bought NTT 32s when they traded at the 35 level; as they have since realigned with the curve and other maturities…

This shows how far the SOFR rate is trading from the midpoint of the Fed’s target range (currently 4.00%–4.25%).

A negative reading means SOFR is rising above the mid level, suggesting stress in the funding market.

If this continues deeper into negative…

mkt stayed resilient yday — credit tightened ~1bp even with SPX -1.2%, NDX -2%, USTs rallying. what’s more interesting was strong TMT credits : new GOOGL/META/ORCL -5~-8bp. Asia panic selloff usually reversed in LDN/NY; today’s -6% KOSPI adds to that reversal…

KTB mkt view

headline CPI should stay near 2% next year while growth improves into the low 2% range as exports, especially semis and autos, remain solid. there’s limited fiscal or monetary stimulus in play, it’s more about the GDP gap gradually closing rather…

24300s could be the short-term bottom for NQ. NVDA earnings might only give the market 1–2 days of noise, but the real driver is what the Fed thinks about the current tight STIR pricing and whether they signal a Dec cut. That will decide if the turn happens…

see the resemblance? If SE (005930 KS) finds support in the early 100,000 KRW area this month, it could easily rip higher on the next ATH breakout

https://substack.com/@traderinkorea/note/c-178820024?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=3dkro



wrote earlier that the Dec Fed cut matters, we actually got a decent Fed put signal last Friday from Williams.

most indicators point to an oversold market (RSI…

I expect a strong rally in equities this month, as market technicals look exceptionally firm. Yesterday, NDX failed to complete the potential H&S pattern, and Asia held up surprisingly well despite the hawkish BoJ pivot that could have easily revived last…

US yields are flashing a potential H&S warning… The 30yr has already completed the pattern, and TY is close to forming its own. If the 10yr breaks above the top of its recent range (around 4.18%), it could move toward the 4.4% level.

even with a super dovish FOMC, 30yr still failed to break the neck line… H&S is holding through the retest

covered the rates short over lunch ahead of a super week, rates positioning is now neutral. risk sentiment a bit tricky here as SPX is marking the potential double top pattern… I still don’t think the pattern will hold.

In credit space, HYUELE 29 looks…

Most of the events this month have been clearly dovish, yet the 2yr has still failed to break below the 3.5% area. I think we need something far more disruptive to push the terminal rate below 3% such as consecutive negative NFP prints, a credit crunch, or…