USIG & KP Overview

Macro Overview

The market has somewhat anticipated a hawkish FOMC, but I think there's a high likelihood that this FOMC will present an even more hawkish surprise than expected. If you are a careful Fed watcher, you would have noticed from the last few FOMC sessions that…

Macro & USD IG Overview

Macro & USD IG Overview

potential for a double bottom pattern remains to be seen today.

Macro & USD IG Overview

Macro & USD IG Overview

Macro & USD IG Overview

Today, I executed a strategic decision to trim 70% of my bull steepener position. The rationale for this move is underpinned by several key factors:

1. A rate cut exceeding 125bps this year appears too much without further shocks from PMI and NFP data in…

Macro & USD IG Overview

Macro & USD IG Overview

something’s about to happen…

the odds favor lower yields and wider credit spreads

Blue line = Total NFP

Red line = Goods-Producing NFP

Historically, manufacturing and construction payrolls tend to peak ahead of total payrolls, or services employment. Right now, goods-producing NFP has already peaked and is entering a slowdown phase.…

US 2s5s10s fly tracks the Fed cycle — 5yr usually outperforms until real cuts hit.

Friday’s ±8bp flip says it all. With Sep cut a done deal, 5yr edge is gone.

The fly is about to turn.

And 2s & 5s held April lows — classic double bottom setup.

Buy fade / sell Apr retest

expect Hard to see April lows breaking this week, for now

https://substack.com/@traderinkorea/note/c-153537399

One thing to note: this is just a tactical view.

Last week's NFP release confirms that employment is currently on an obvious downward trend. NFP is not easily recovered by just a few cuts, so I expect…

IG Credit view

Overall hit ratio on new issues is looking much weaker vs a few weeks ago. RMs are offloading credit as yields approach April lows — even with equities firmer & vols cheapening. 3yr FRN demand is also fading, All point to limited room for…

On FOMC day, I expect the Fed to lean more dovish than what markets are currently pricing. I place little weight on the dots or the SEP—this may move FFZ5, but should have only limited impact on the 5-10y yield. I believe the Fed stands on the dovish side…

The new CBBAU deal looks like a no-brainer. IPT is 40+bp wide vs outstanding bonds, and I expect solid demand given last week’s yield move higher and the WSTP FRN 07/30 trading in the 60s. My FV levels are ~43bp for the fixed and ~63bp for the FRN