Just bought some HYUELE 29 as it hit my target (around 140), with bids quickly joining at 140 despite some down trades in the Asia session. With NFP delivering the best figures the market could hope for, I've also added some long positions on the US 2yr leg.

Absent a hard hit by a mind blowing cpi print, it is confirmed this month’s rates high would be capped. Expect real money flows to step in. I will buy buy buy on the high betas again, certainly HYUELE.

USIG & KP Overview

Macro Overview

The market has somewhat anticipated a hawkish FOMC, but I think there's a high likelihood that this FOMC will present an even more hawkish surprise than expected. If you are a careful Fed watcher, you would have noticed from the last few FOMC sessions that…

Macro & USD IG Overview

Macro & USD IG Overview

potential for a double bottom pattern remains to be seen today.

Macro & USD IG Overview

Macro & USD IG Overview

Macro & USD IG Overview

Today, I executed a strategic decision to trim 70% of my bull steepener position. The rationale for this move is underpinned by several key factors:

1. A rate cut exceeding 125bps this year appears too much without further shocks from PMI and NFP data in…

Macro & USD IG Overview

Macro & USD IG Overview

something’s about to happen…

the odds favor lower yields and wider credit spreads

Blue line = Total NFP

Red line = Goods-Producing NFP

Historically, manufacturing and construction payrolls tend to peak ahead of total payrolls, or services employment. Right now, goods-producing NFP has already peaked and is entering a slowdown phase.…

US 2s5s10s fly tracks the Fed cycle — 5yr usually outperforms until real cuts hit.

Friday’s ±8bp flip says it all. With Sep cut a done deal, 5yr edge is gone.

The fly is about to turn.

And 2s & 5s held April lows — classic double bottom setup.

Buy fade / sell Apr retest

expect Hard to see April lows breaking this week, for now

https://substack.com/@traderinkorea/note/c-153537399

One thing to note: this is just a tactical view.

Last week's NFP release confirms that employment is currently on an obvious downward trend. NFP is not easily recovered by just a few cuts, so I expect…