Forbes believes that three Russian oligarch will be hit by the possible sanctions in case Kremlin starts aggression in Ukraine the hardest - Roman Abramovich, Alisher Usmanov and Leonid Mikhelson.

Looks like American and British lobbyists and lawyers are already making fortunes out of these three.

Vladimir Putin summoned Ramzan Kadyrov after massive rallies in Grozny against dissident Yangulbayev family. Kadyrov and other Chechen officials threatened to decapitate Yangulbaevs.

The outrage of Chechen authorities was a little too much even for Russia, so Putin had to talk to Kadyrov personally and calm him down.

Kadyrov will be a problem for any president after Putin. He created a totalitarian copy of Russian regime with only one alternative on Chechen soil – islamist. Because of Kadyrov’s methods.

Second, Kadyrov won’t listen to anyone other than Putin. As Putin is getting older and more isolated, the scale of Kadyrov’s disobedience is also getting bigger.

This is Frankenstein created by Moscow and Putin personally. Kadyrov is a part of this system.

Unfortunately, after dismantling Ichkeria, Moscow had nothing to offer Chechens other than Kadyrov. Russkiy Mir as it is.

Vladimir Putin went to Beijing and made a new gas supply deal with China. Public part of the meeting was quite ordinary, as well as anti-Western rhetorics of both regimes.

The real influence of China in Moscow is publicly unclear, but some people in Washington already assume that Russia is China’s proxy.

Beijing surely doesn’t view Moscow as an equal partner – why should it?

So, one thing Russia has to understand is that it is not a giant anymore. Russia is stuck between bigger players for a long time to come.

Other thing to understand is that Washigton is a better option for Russia than Beijing.

Biden’s Administration is really doing its best not to alienate Russia, but perhaps it will take a more reasonable Russian leader to play this game the way it should be played.

Russian interests spent about $182mln on lobbying and propaganda in the U.S. since 2016, according to OpenSecrets’ analysis of Foreign Agents Registration Act and Lobbying Disclosure Act data.

Foreign agents working for Russian state media outlets spent $34.8 million on propaganda targeting the U.S. in 2021 alone.

Companies whose interests align with Russia’s have spent heavily on lobbying around Nord Stream 2 pipeline project.

So, first Russia suffers losses from sanctions, then it gives away millions of dollars to those who impose these sanctions. Fair enough.

Congratulations with 30K, way more is to come if you keep up with the current quality of your texts. Our pleasure to introduce you to our audience and people who work on Russian issues here.

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Joe Biden reached an agreement with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz over actions in case Putin decides to start war in Ukraine. According to Scholz, Germany and USA are united and won’t take different steps.

Putin had a meeting with Emmanuel Macron. The French President looked quite relaxed and said the coming days will be crucial to de-escalating the Ukraine standoff.

In all honesty, the whole situation is a trap for Russia which was created by Kremlin’s follies and lack of realism.

We assume that Kremlin should agree with the last American proposals. It would minimize Russian losses.

Russia’s downfall under Putin will continue, so in a couple of years Washington will offer Moscow nothing. Scholz will come to see Putin in a couple of weeks.

Dmitry Peskov said today that measures taken by the Government of Russia are enough for maintaining Russia’s economic growth.

Obviously the intention of Kremlin is maintaining the current socio-economic model in the country which is feudalism.

Terrible poverty of Russians without hopes to overcome it along with high inflation are instruments of limiting their political activity.

The downfall will continue.

Russian court has sentenced three teenagers for „terrorism activities“ including plotting to blow up a virtual FSB building in the popular online game Minecraft.

No, it’s not a joke. 16-year old Nikita Uvarov was sentenced to five years in a penal colony for some actions he took in a computer game.

According to the court, it was “undergoing training for the purpose of carrying out terrorist activities”.

Recently Kadyrov and his servants threatened to decapitate a whole family. Has any Russian court done anything about it?

Now they are destroying kid's life for nothing. We really have no comments whatsoever.

Russia’s Central Bank raised its key rate by 1% to 9.5% bringing it to the highest level in five years.

This is the second time in a row the regulator has raised the rate by a full point, and the eighth consecutive rise.

The actual inflation in Russia, especially food inflation, has hit double digits long time ago.

The latest gas contract of Russia and China perfectly shows the type of relations between two countries. They are rather unilateral.

According to several experts, when prices of oil are lower than $60-$70 per barrel, Russia may not be making any money on the gas it's sending to China.

China is taking full advantage of Russia’s standoff with the West. Kremlin won’t be viewed even a s a junior partner by Beijing soon enough.

It was a pleasure to chat with you, guys. Keep up with the great job you are doing.

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Lurk

A court in Yekaterinburg has handed prison sentences to members of a so called hacker group Lurk. The leader of the group, Konstantin Kozlovsky, was handed the longest sentence of 14 years.

While addressing the court, Kozlovsky said that he was recruited by FSB and acted on its orders, but his recruiters appeared to be “Western agents”.

Lurk was involved in hacking the servers of Democratic Party and other criminal activities in the US, including the case of Colonial Pipeline.

The group was dismantled after Putin who was approached by Biden.

Supervisors of Kozlovsky in FSB are not Western agents. Biden provided information to Putin personally, so FSB abandoned its hackers really quick.

Nuclear power Russia has unfortunately turned into kind of hooligan state with a mentality of teenager.

Russia’s Duma has passed a resolution calling on the President to recognize breakaway regions Luhansk and Donetsk as independent from Ukraine.

Kremlin has put itself in a ridiculous situation with clueless demands, ultimatums etc. This is another attempt to raise stakes which won’t impress Washington of anyone else.

It looks like an act of despair.

Recognition of LDNR will put an end to any Russian perspectives in Ukraine. It resembles the case of South Ossetia and Abkhazia that were used by Russia to put pressure on Georgia.

The great difference is Ossetia and Abkhazia were more or less states with certain institutions.

Even greater difference is Ukraine’s critical importance for Russia. If Putin loses Ukraine completely he will go down as one of the worst Russian rulers ever.

Russia enhanced its holdings of the US debt amidst aggressive anti-Western rhetorics.

Russia’s holdings of American bonds hasn’t ever been significant and started to go down in 2018 when Russia began selling them.

Russian portfolio in November 2021 was only $2.409bln. It has reached $3.910bln in December, going up 60% in a month.

It still doesn’t make any difference for the US Treasury, but the tendency is interesting.

First Deputy Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut said today that prices for milk, bread, vegetables and sugar will likely increase significantly this year.

According to Lut, manufacturers of sugar have already hiked the prices by 30%.

Bad economy, double digit inflation, terrible poverty without any perspectives for a vast majority of Russians. Perfect time for military tensions and clueless ultimatums.

Nato’s defense ministers decided to strengthen forces in the Southeast Europe, including Bulgaria and Romania, Nato’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said at a press briefing yesterday.

Kremlin did its very best to revive the Alliance. If Putin really takes some actions in Ukraine, it will clearly give a further boost to NATO.

Two Slavic countries are on the brink of war, US will benefit anyway. If we take away emotions, that is the case.

Grandmaster Putin at his best.

Had a chat with a couple of people in Washington. They expect Russia to start military action in Ukraine in several days, one of them by Monday.

Russia has amassed troops on the border, it’s not only army. Special forces of FSB, Russian Guard – everyone is there.

The scale of Putin’s folly is unclear. Our informants are sure that he won’t go for a full-scale war and occupation of the whole country. This could be disastrous for Russia in terms of consequences.

Violence is escalating, it’s all about one provocation which will become casus belli.

In all honesty, we didn’t think that Kremlin is occupied by people that stupid.

Let’s hope that something will change in the very last moment or future Russian actions are at least coordinated with the US.

Traders and buyers of Asia are becoming increasingly wary of being caught up in possible trade restrictions should Russia be sanctioned because of the war in Ukraine.

According to Bloomberg, oil traders are starting to reconsider procurement plans for April in favor of oil from UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The market is solid overall, but oil traders clearly assess the risk of war as very significant.

Joe Biden is holding a press-conference in the White House right now. The President says that he is convinced Putin has made a decision to invade Ukraine, but it's still not too late for diplomacy.

Joe Biden and Anthony Blinken both noted, that the idea of “Ukranian aggression” against LDNR defies basic logic.

According to Kremlin’s narrative, Kyiv waited until Russia arrayed about 150 000 troops on its border to escalate the conflict. This is a joke that won’t fool even a child.

The same is with Putin’s unfounded claims about “genocide”. Nobody will buy it.

Russia has to understand that the information war around Ukraine is lost long time ago. Moscow doesn’t have resources and competence to play against the West here.

There won’t be second Tagliavini report. Georgia was indeed an aggressor in 2008 and assaulted South Ossetia.

Now it’s not the case. Which makes possible recognition of LDNR by Russia an illegal act which will actually benefit Ukraine.