Joe Biden told American journalists that he won’t accept any red lines or other terms from Vladimir Putin concerning situation in Ukraine. This is by no means any surprise for two reasons.
First, Putin isn’t in a position to set any terms in talks with the US. Second, nobody will give any guarantees to an actor which disrespects not only international law, but basic rules of decency.
Biden and Putin will hold a telephone call on Tuesday. U.S. intelligence officials, meanwhile, have determined that Russia has massed about 70,000 troops near its border with Ukraine.
Many analysts think that Putin is bluffing, but we are not so sure. Russian President sees Ukraine as a key factor of his historic role. Also, if Washington really chooses not to recognize the results of 2024 elections in Russia, it would be a disaster for Kremlin and turn Putin into Lukashenko.
So, Putin is desperately raising stakes the only way he can. Unfortunately, Russia has no other instruments other than military. Let’s see how Biden handles the situation, the game is on. And it's truly a no-win game for both Russia and Ukraine.
First, Putin isn’t in a position to set any terms in talks with the US. Second, nobody will give any guarantees to an actor which disrespects not only international law, but basic rules of decency.
Biden and Putin will hold a telephone call on Tuesday. U.S. intelligence officials, meanwhile, have determined that Russia has massed about 70,000 troops near its border with Ukraine.
Many analysts think that Putin is bluffing, but we are not so sure. Russian President sees Ukraine as a key factor of his historic role. Also, if Washington really chooses not to recognize the results of 2024 elections in Russia, it would be a disaster for Kremlin and turn Putin into Lukashenko.
So, Putin is desperately raising stakes the only way he can. Unfortunately, Russia has no other instruments other than military. Let’s see how Biden handles the situation, the game is on. And it's truly a no-win game for both Russia and Ukraine.
Russian Arms Sales Declining
According to new data released yesterday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, sales of arms and military services by the industry’s 100 largest companies totaled $531 billion in 2020—an increase of 1.3% compared with the previous year.
Nevertheless, the combined arms sales of Russian companies ranked in the Top 100 decreased from $28.2 billion in 2019 to $26.4 billion in 2020—a 6.5% decline. This marks a continuation of the downward trend observed since 2017.
Some of the sharpest declines in the top100 are also recorded by Russian companies. Important numbers by countries:
USA - $285bln, +1.9%
China – $66.8bln, +1.5%
Europe – $109bln
Britain – $37.5bln, +6.2%
Germany – $8.9bln, +1.3%
Russia – $26.4bln, -6.5%.
According to Swedish analysts, the Russian decline coincided with the end of the State Armament Program 2011–20 and pandemic-related delays in delivery schedules.
Almaz-Antey and United Shipbuilding Corporation saw their arms sales fall by 31% and 11%, respectively.
According to new data released yesterday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, sales of arms and military services by the industry’s 100 largest companies totaled $531 billion in 2020—an increase of 1.3% compared with the previous year.
Nevertheless, the combined arms sales of Russian companies ranked in the Top 100 decreased from $28.2 billion in 2019 to $26.4 billion in 2020—a 6.5% decline. This marks a continuation of the downward trend observed since 2017.
Some of the sharpest declines in the top100 are also recorded by Russian companies. Important numbers by countries:
USA - $285bln, +1.9%
China – $66.8bln, +1.5%
Europe – $109bln
Britain – $37.5bln, +6.2%
Germany – $8.9bln, +1.3%
Russia – $26.4bln, -6.5%.
According to Swedish analysts, the Russian decline coincided with the end of the State Armament Program 2011–20 and pandemic-related delays in delivery schedules.
Almaz-Antey and United Shipbuilding Corporation saw their arms sales fall by 31% and 11%, respectively.
Yesterday’s Biden-Putin talks in a nutshell:
Putin: Russia is interested in obtaining reliable, legally fixed guarantees excluding the expansion of NATO in the eastern direction.
Biden: Nobody is in a position to tell NATO what to do. The US do not give any guarantees regarding the possible membership of Ukraine.
Jake Sullivan: Things we did not do in 2014 we are prepared to do now.
Looks like the call hasn’t been that fruitful for Moscow and for Putin in terms of personal guarantees. It hasn’t changed much for Washington either. Kremlin will continue its military build-up on Ukranian border. White House sees it as a classic win-win situation.
Washington’s focus is Taiwan, but the grip on Ukraine is also strong.
Putin: Russia is interested in obtaining reliable, legally fixed guarantees excluding the expansion of NATO in the eastern direction.
Biden: Nobody is in a position to tell NATO what to do. The US do not give any guarantees regarding the possible membership of Ukraine.
Jake Sullivan: Things we did not do in 2014 we are prepared to do now.
Looks like the call hasn’t been that fruitful for Moscow and for Putin in terms of personal guarantees. It hasn’t changed much for Washington either. Kremlin will continue its military build-up on Ukranian border. White House sees it as a classic win-win situation.
Washington’s focus is Taiwan, but the grip on Ukraine is also strong.
Economy Minister Reshetnikov said yesterday that the inflation in Russia will exceed the planned 8% this year.
Reshetnikov knows very well that Russian inflation has in fact already hit double digits. We write a lot about Russian poverty, but it’s very striking every time.
More than 30% of Russians have to borrow money or take bank loans on a regular basis to meet their basic needs. Russian poverty is catastrophic mainly because the government isn’t actually interested in fighting it.
Kremlin will rather manipulate the statistics or invent new standards of poverty to assure Russians that everything is ok. It’s actually pathetic and ignorant, but that’s the way Russia is historically run.
Reshetnikov knows very well that Russian inflation has in fact already hit double digits. We write a lot about Russian poverty, but it’s very striking every time.
More than 30% of Russians have to borrow money or take bank loans on a regular basis to meet their basic needs. Russian poverty is catastrophic mainly because the government isn’t actually interested in fighting it.
Kremlin will rather manipulate the statistics or invent new standards of poverty to assure Russians that everything is ok. It’s actually pathetic and ignorant, but that’s the way Russia is historically run.
Kremlin won’t let state corporation Rusnano go bankrupt, although it is clearly on the verge of default and isn’t able to pay its debts due to mismanagement and corruption.
Chairman of state owned VEB Igor Shuvalov stated that the corporation is ready to help Rusnano on the order of Russian government.
This order will surely come, so hundreds of billions of Russian taxpayers’ money will disappear in the black hole of Russia’s state-owned corporations.
This is just ridiculous, infinite corruption. Where is Chubais, by the way?
Chairman of state owned VEB Igor Shuvalov stated that the corporation is ready to help Rusnano on the order of Russian government.
This order will surely come, so hundreds of billions of Russian taxpayers’ money will disappear in the black hole of Russia’s state-owned corporations.
This is just ridiculous, infinite corruption. Where is Chubais, by the way?
Director Alexander Sokurov’s speech at the meeting of the Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights showed not only that prominent artists, directors etc are often not very smart people.
It also showed the scale of orientalism and anti-Caucasus sentiment among Russian intelligentsia.
Sokurov failed to find out that the most numerous ethnic group in Causasus are Russians, almost all the siloviks in the region are ethnic Russians, numerous ministers, heads of parliaments are also Russians etc, but let it be.
Nobody should expect of Russian intelligentsia a deep knowledge of Russia. We have another question.
If, as Sokurov and others want, secession of Caucasus happens, will ethnic Russians start to live any better? What will change? There will be no more corruption, poverty, injustice, people will live better, the country will be safer or what?
Russian regions with a few exceptions are equally stripped of their rights. The only way out of this black hole is a working model of federalism with freedom and justice for all.
By the way, we still challenge anyone to point out one thing Kadyrov does which is not done by Putin in a much greater scale.
It also showed the scale of orientalism and anti-Caucasus sentiment among Russian intelligentsia.
Sokurov failed to find out that the most numerous ethnic group in Causasus are Russians, almost all the siloviks in the region are ethnic Russians, numerous ministers, heads of parliaments are also Russians etc, but let it be.
Nobody should expect of Russian intelligentsia a deep knowledge of Russia. We have another question.
If, as Sokurov and others want, secession of Caucasus happens, will ethnic Russians start to live any better? What will change? There will be no more corruption, poverty, injustice, people will live better, the country will be safer or what?
Russian regions with a few exceptions are equally stripped of their rights. The only way out of this black hole is a working model of federalism with freedom and justice for all.
By the way, we still challenge anyone to point out one thing Kadyrov does which is not done by Putin in a much greater scale.
Fair enough, but Kadyrov does what Moscow does with "foreign agents" and other "American spies", using the same rhetorics.
We all know that if any Tatar or Yakut said what Sokurov had said, there would be a massive scandal with accusations of extremism, nationalism and separatism.
In Sokurov's case it's only "direct communication with the President", right.
We all know that if any Tatar or Yakut said what Sokurov had said, there would be a massive scandal with accusations of extremism, nationalism and separatism.
In Sokurov's case it's only "direct communication with the President", right.
Foreign investors are exiting the Russian bond market (OFZs): a five-month increase in non-resident investments last month became a record outflow of 1.7bln in November.
The outflow of capital is a result of Russian military build-up on the Ukranian border and highly possible Western sanctions which may be imposed on Moscow because of this military escalation.
Putin’s foreign policy follies cost Russia billions of dollars and will cost much more. We are talking not only about money.
The outflow of capital is a result of Russian military build-up on the Ukranian border and highly possible Western sanctions which may be imposed on Moscow because of this military escalation.
Putin’s foreign policy follies cost Russia billions of dollars and will cost much more. We are talking not only about money.
Russian State-Contracted Killing in Berlin
German court found Russian citizen Vadim Krasikov guilty of the August 2019 murder of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, an ethnic Chechen of Georgian nationality, in a central Berlin park, and sentenced him to life imprisonment.
German Federal Prosecutors, Nikolaus Forschner and Lars Malskies told justices Krasikov carried out a politically motivated murder on behalf of Russian government agencies.
The murder of Khangoshvili, who was labeled as a terrorist by Russia, according to Germans, was retaliation, not “preventive killing” as he did not pose threat to the country since he moved to Germany in 2016.
Also, the prosecution noted that Russian authorities had not made an extradition request for Khangoshvili in order to bring him to justice. This was an answer to Putin's claim that Khangoshvili was a terrorist - ok, then punish him according to the law.
The Prosecutors also asked to prevent future suspension of the defendant’s prison sentence on probation.
This is no Qatar. Krasikov’s life sentence, anyway, will hardly dismantle the system of state-contracted killings in Russia: there is no understanding of reputation and its value in Kremlin.
Lately they cannot even kill without failures and scandals, though.
German court found Russian citizen Vadim Krasikov guilty of the August 2019 murder of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, an ethnic Chechen of Georgian nationality, in a central Berlin park, and sentenced him to life imprisonment.
German Federal Prosecutors, Nikolaus Forschner and Lars Malskies told justices Krasikov carried out a politically motivated murder on behalf of Russian government agencies.
The murder of Khangoshvili, who was labeled as a terrorist by Russia, according to Germans, was retaliation, not “preventive killing” as he did not pose threat to the country since he moved to Germany in 2016.
Also, the prosecution noted that Russian authorities had not made an extradition request for Khangoshvili in order to bring him to justice. This was an answer to Putin's claim that Khangoshvili was a terrorist - ok, then punish him according to the law.
The Prosecutors also asked to prevent future suspension of the defendant’s prison sentence on probation.
This is no Qatar. Krasikov’s life sentence, anyway, will hardly dismantle the system of state-contracted killings in Russia: there is no understanding of reputation and its value in Kremlin.
Lately they cannot even kill without failures and scandals, though.
Germany expelled two Russian diplomats after a Berlin court ruled Vadim Krasikov had murdered Zelimkhan Khangoshvili on behalf of Russian government in what the presiding judge declared was an act of “state terrorism.”
Kremlin dismissed the verdict as “absurd” and threatened to retaliate. You know what is really absurd?
It is absurd to constantly deny any responsibility for your actions. No accountability, whatsoever. MH-17, attempt to kill Navalny (what’s up with him?), crisis in Ukraine, Skripals – the list goes on and on.
The relationship with its new government started from a good point, right? How incompetent and brain-dead you have to be to commit a murder on a territory of your key European partner amidst the sanctions crisis.
As far as we know, Khangoshvili was by no means “a dissident”. A terrorist is a terrorist. Khangoshvili's past caught up with him, and fair enough.
The way Russians did it was a sheer stupidity though.
Kremlin dismissed the verdict as “absurd” and threatened to retaliate. You know what is really absurd?
It is absurd to constantly deny any responsibility for your actions. No accountability, whatsoever. MH-17, attempt to kill Navalny (what’s up with him?), crisis in Ukraine, Skripals – the list goes on and on.
The relationship with its new government started from a good point, right? How incompetent and brain-dead you have to be to commit a murder on a territory of your key European partner amidst the sanctions crisis.
As far as we know, Khangoshvili was by no means “a dissident”. A terrorist is a terrorist. Khangoshvili's past caught up with him, and fair enough.
The way Russians did it was a sheer stupidity though.
85% of Russians are either poor or live behind the line of poverty.
We can only recommend this exceptional piece of writing on how, instead of fighting against poverty, Kremlin invents new ways not to see it in order to proceed with its feudalism.
Putinism against poverty is like bees against honey. Nothing but propaganda, in real life Kremlin is only deliberately making the poverty of Russian worse for political reasons.
We can only recommend this exceptional piece of writing on how, instead of fighting against poverty, Kremlin invents new ways not to see it in order to proceed with its feudalism.
Putinism against poverty is like bees against honey. Nothing but propaganda, in real life Kremlin is only deliberately making the poverty of Russian worse for political reasons.
A court in Rostov has acknowledged yesterday, while looking into a fraud case, that Russia’s armed forces are present in Donbass.
The case involved allegations of corruption concerning a catering service intended for "the garrisons of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation stationed on the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics," Judge Leonard Sholokhov wrote.
Kremlin’s spokesman Peskov called the ruling a mistake, so it instantly disappeared from the court’s site.
Hope the judge will be ok, he really didn’t reveal any secrets. The whole world is already used to Russians denying obvious facts.
The case involved allegations of corruption concerning a catering service intended for "the garrisons of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation stationed on the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics," Judge Leonard Sholokhov wrote.
Kremlin’s spokesman Peskov called the ruling a mistake, so it instantly disappeared from the court’s site.
Hope the judge will be ok, he really didn’t reveal any secrets. The whole world is already used to Russians denying obvious facts.
Bank of Russia increased today its key interest rate to 8.5%, delivering its seventh hike this year. Double digits inflation in the country.
Vladislav Klyushin has been finally extradited from Switzerland to the US on Saturday. Welcome. Russian official reaction hasn't been meaningful, just a political hysteria for domestic consumption.
He is the owner of M-13 company which has been getting lucrative deals from Kremlin since 2016 for monitoring social networks, media and messengers through through “Katyusha” media-monitoring system, also used by the Defense Ministry.
Klyushin is accused of insider trading worth tens of millions of dollars with several accomplices, after allegedly hacking into U.S. companies to steal confidential data.
As a true Russian patriot, Klyushin has been detained after flying into Switzerland on a private jet for a family ski trip.
He is the owner of M-13 company which has been getting lucrative deals from Kremlin since 2016 for monitoring social networks, media and messengers through through “Katyusha” media-monitoring system, also used by the Defense Ministry.
Klyushin is accused of insider trading worth tens of millions of dollars with several accomplices, after allegedly hacking into U.S. companies to steal confidential data.
As a true Russian patriot, Klyushin has been detained after flying into Switzerland on a private jet for a family ski trip.
An important update about future sanctions on Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
The Senate clinched an agreement to confirm around three dozen nominees for ambassadorships and senior State Department positions, ending a stalemate between Sen. Ted Cruz and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
The agreement between Cruz and Schumer also sets up a vote in January on Nord Stream 2.
Cruz agreed to lift his holds on 32 nominees in exchange for the Senate voting in early January on his legislation to sanction the pipeline, which the U.S. decided not to sanction in order to preserve relations with Germany.
Now The Senate will vote before Jan. 14 Cruz’s legislation. Cruz would lift additional holds when and if the bill passes in the Senate and advances to the House and to the President’s desk.
Why is Cruz undermining the pipeline? He is from Texas and has an enormous oil and gas lobby behind his legislation. US will have the final say on this pipeline.
The Senate clinched an agreement to confirm around three dozen nominees for ambassadorships and senior State Department positions, ending a stalemate between Sen. Ted Cruz and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
The agreement between Cruz and Schumer also sets up a vote in January on Nord Stream 2.
Cruz agreed to lift his holds on 32 nominees in exchange for the Senate voting in early January on his legislation to sanction the pipeline, which the U.S. decided not to sanction in order to preserve relations with Germany.
Now The Senate will vote before Jan. 14 Cruz’s legislation. Cruz would lift additional holds when and if the bill passes in the Senate and advances to the House and to the President’s desk.
Why is Cruz undermining the pipeline? He is from Texas and has an enormous oil and gas lobby behind his legislation. US will have the final say on this pipeline.
American officials working with Eastern and Central Europe believe that Russia will imminently invade Ukraine.
The military build-up of Russia is too strong. Artillery, air defense units, tanks, APCs, bridge-laying equipment, mine clearers etc — everything has been moved to the border.
Kremlin’s political statements and military posture align, diplomatic efforts look more like a justification of an invasion. Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov, Gerasimov – rhetorics of these old men has really reached a boiling point.
The list of demands for guarantees issued by Kremlin is not a realistic proposal for any talks. Is Moscow ready to take reciprocal steps and not deploy Iskanders in Kaliningrad, for example? Certainly not.
Putin is aging, Russians are drowning in poverty, the economy is no good and won’t ever be good under Putin and his friends. Tzar is convinced that pro-Western Ukraine just shouldn’t exist. The war makes total sense for him.
It will be a grave mistake, so let it be.
The military build-up of Russia is too strong. Artillery, air defense units, tanks, APCs, bridge-laying equipment, mine clearers etc — everything has been moved to the border.
Kremlin’s political statements and military posture align, diplomatic efforts look more like a justification of an invasion. Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov, Gerasimov – rhetorics of these old men has really reached a boiling point.
The list of demands for guarantees issued by Kremlin is not a realistic proposal for any talks. Is Moscow ready to take reciprocal steps and not deploy Iskanders in Kaliningrad, for example? Certainly not.
Putin is aging, Russians are drowning in poverty, the economy is no good and won’t ever be good under Putin and his friends. Tzar is convinced that pro-Western Ukraine just shouldn’t exist. The war makes total sense for him.
It will be a grave mistake, so let it be.
Dutch murder trial over MH 17 flight is almost over.
The prosecutors have sought life sentences for three Russians Oleg Pulatov, Sergey Dubinsky and Igor Girkin and a Ukrainian Leonid Kharchenko on trial for intentionally shooting down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014, killing 298 people.
An international team of investigators concluded that the Buk launcher used to shoot down the aircraft belonged to Russia's 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade.
In recordings played to the court, men identified by the prosecution as the suspects could be heard discussing moving "our Buk" to a field from where flight MH17 was attacked.
Sure enough, Moscow denies its involvement, but perhaps times will change and Russia will find enough decency to at least apologize.
You cannot beat legal procedures with emotions.
The prosecutors have sought life sentences for three Russians Oleg Pulatov, Sergey Dubinsky and Igor Girkin and a Ukrainian Leonid Kharchenko on trial for intentionally shooting down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014, killing 298 people.
An international team of investigators concluded that the Buk launcher used to shoot down the aircraft belonged to Russia's 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade.
In recordings played to the court, men identified by the prosecution as the suspects could be heard discussing moving "our Buk" to a field from where flight MH17 was attacked.
Sure enough, Moscow denies its involvement, but perhaps times will change and Russia will find enough decency to at least apologize.
You cannot beat legal procedures with emotions.
Putin hasn’t said anything meaningful during his annual news conference. We assume that the majority of Russians are just tired of the President saying the same things year after year.
The man is obsessed with Ukraine which he thinks is an artificial country created by Lenin. This is a basic nationalist view on Ukraine in Russia.
None of these people think that Russia is an “artificial country” created by Golden Horde, though.
Other than that, Putin passionately demanded NATO guarantees which he won’t get. Answering the question about tortures in Russian prisons, Putin, as usual, first of all referred to the US, saying that it’s not solely a Russian problem.
Thank God, no country dominates the thinking of American presidents the way America dominates the thinking of Putin.
The man is obsessed with Ukraine which he thinks is an artificial country created by Lenin. This is a basic nationalist view on Ukraine in Russia.
None of these people think that Russia is an “artificial country” created by Golden Horde, though.
Other than that, Putin passionately demanded NATO guarantees which he won’t get. Answering the question about tortures in Russian prisons, Putin, as usual, first of all referred to the US, saying that it’s not solely a Russian problem.
Thank God, no country dominates the thinking of American presidents the way America dominates the thinking of Putin.
Washington contradicted Putin’s words about negotiations about security guarantees, saying that no place or time had been set for talks. Biden is ready to begin discussions in January, though.
It is clear that Putin won’t get the guarantees on Ukraine that he seeks. Moscow has a weaker hand, Washington has all the time and leverage. So, what will happen next?
Only one thing is 100% sure – Kremlin will have to make a decision soon. It’s too costly to keep an army outside of its garrisons for ever at the readiness this high.
Sam Charap from the RAND thinks that Russia’s non-starter proposals are just buying time for military action.
We assume that Putin will implement half measures. We don’t even think that Kremlin has a clear long-term plan of actions.
Russia’s actions are almost always very limited, very calculated and coordinated with the West.
It is clear that Putin won’t get the guarantees on Ukraine that he seeks. Moscow has a weaker hand, Washington has all the time and leverage. So, what will happen next?
Only one thing is 100% sure – Kremlin will have to make a decision soon. It’s too costly to keep an army outside of its garrisons for ever at the readiness this high.
Sam Charap from the RAND thinks that Russia’s non-starter proposals are just buying time for military action.
We assume that Putin will implement half measures. We don’t even think that Kremlin has a clear long-term plan of actions.
Russia’s actions are almost always very limited, very calculated and coordinated with the West.