🔝 Just Analytics: Fed rate cut ≠ Market rally

Today at 3:00 PM ET the Fed will announce its rate decision. AA 0.25% cut is expected most likely — futures put the probability at 90%. This would be the first rate cut since December 2024.

❕ What to understand

The market has already “priced in” this move: the S&P 500 is up 6% in recent weeks, and 10-year Treasury yields have dropped almost 40 bps.

That’s why a simple cut is unlikely to spark another rally — all eyes will be on Powell’s comments.

🔥 The key focus

Powell’s press conference will decide the market’s reaction:

+ Postive: If he hints at a series of cuts this year, markets could hold near or break new highs.

- Negative: If he stresses caution and the need to watch other economic data, profit-taking and a pullback after the “expectations rally” are likely.

@just 📄

🔥 BlackRock buys $209M BTC and sells $20M ETH

@just 📄

🔥 Forward Industries announces $4B share sale to buy Solana

🔄 Earlier: Company raised $1.65 billion to create Solana treasury

@just 📄

🔥 Coinbase sent a letter urging the DOJ to ensure uniform, fair crypto regulation across states

@just 📄

🪙 BTC Inc. and Strategy₿ agree to five-year strategic partnership renewal extending Bitcoin for corporations initiative

The initiative currently represents 38 member companies holding 69% of all corporate Bitcoin holdings, and will continue providing networking, educational resources, and support for companies integrating Bitcoin into their treasuries.

@just 📄

⚡️ Tether's Plasma has announced a partnership with Rain platform (by Visa)

@just 📄

🪙 K33: Bitcoin treasury companies have bought an average of 1,428 BTC per day in September

Some 25% of public bitcoin treasury firms now have market caps worth less than the value of their BTC holdings, according to K33.

@just 📄

❕ Bit Digital CEO says the commercial Bitcoin mining industry is “doomed”

The “Bitcoin mining industry is going to be dead in two years” he tells, explaining the economics of profit and loss will no longer stack up from a business perspective. Even Michael Saylor reportedly agrees that Bitcoin mining is a ‘terrible’ business.

@just 📄

🔝 Kalshi’s prediction market on today’s Fed decision surpassed $85M in trading volume

@just 📄

⚡️ Fed cuts key interest rate by 25bps

Fed median projection shows 50bps more rate cuts in 2025. The Fed expects 50bps more of rate cuts this year.

🔜 Today's Fed decision is a perfect case study. Why? Read our post

@just 📄

🔖🔖🔖🔖 to $114,932

@just 📄

📣 Powell's press conference key statements:

• No widespread support for 50bps cut today.
• Don't feel need to move quickly on rates.
• Could think of today's cut as a risk management cut.
• Don't know that quarter point cut will make a huge difference.
• Markets are pricing in a rate path, though not blessing that path.

@just 📄

🪙 Golden Donald Trump statue holding Bitcoin appears outside the US Capitol on Fed rate cut day

@just 📄

❕ Democrats are investigating Trump crypto advisor David Sacks over a possible SGE* violation

* — Special Government Employees (like Sacks) are only allowed to serve for 130 days.

@just 📄

🔥 BitGo crypto exchange wins BaFIN* nod to offer regulated crypto trading in EU

* — Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority.

@just 📄

📣 Coinbase CEO says he was in DC, working to get market structure legislation passed for crypto

@just 📄

⚡️ BDACS announced the official launch of KRW1, a first South Korean won-backed stablecoin on Avalanche

🔄 Earlier: Tests.

@just 📄

🔥 DBS and Franklin Templeton to launch trading and lending solutions powered by tokenised money market funds and Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin

@just 📄

📣 New York regulators push banks to adopt blockchain analytics

@just 📄

⭐️ SEC approved generic listing standards for crypto ETFs, cutting the need for case-by-case approvals by directly approving exchanges

@just 📄