INTELRUNNER

🇪🇺 Europe's corporate productivity growth has substantially lagged gains by US businesses…

In fact, European productivity has contracted for most of the last decade.

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INTELRUNNER

Data center electricity demand expected to surge. Chart Watch

🇺🇸 How much do you want to

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What’s the limit on your tolerance for electricity bill hikes to support the data centers of billionaires?

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 Will AI damage the software industry?

What do you think?

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 It’s July CPI Day. Headline CPI came in low & steady at 2.7% (consensus forecast was 2.8%) year-over-year. Month-over-month was right on target at 0.2%. 📈 CHART WATCH 📊

🇺🇸 It’s July PPI Day.

The Producer Price Index for final demand strengthened 0.9% (3.3% y/y) during July after unrevised stability in June and a 0.4% May increase, revised from 0.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It was the largest increase since June 2022. The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% increase in July.

Strong evidence that U.S. businesses are absorbing quite a bit of the tariff pass through…

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 The other big report is in unemployment. Here are the initial (4-week moving average) & continuing claims…

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🇩🇪 Having eclipsed Japan now, Nvidia ($NVDA) has a larger share of the ACWI World Index than any one of these countries and several combinations thereof. 🇺🇸 CHART WATCH 🇺🇸

🇺🇸 v 🌐 This is the worst year for U.S. equities against the rest of the world since 2009.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 It’s July CPI Day. Headline CPI came in low & steady at 2.7% (consensus forecast was 2.8%) year-over-year. Month-over-month was right on target at 0.2%. 📈 CHART WATCH 📊

🇺🇸 Inflation geographic divergence widens by most since April as Pacific coast states see highest inflation rate since May 2024…

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INTELRUNNER

🌐 Foreign aid was over one-fifth of these countries’ national incomes.

I’m skeptical of a few of these. And Ukraine is drastically understated; they get 50-80% of their national income from abroad.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 Circle Internet Group debuted on June 5th at $69. In 2.5 weeks, it rose 333.3% to $298.99. Since, $CRCL has fallen 51.8% to $144.06.

Circle is responsible for U.S. Dollar Coin ($USDC), one of the top stablecoins in cryptocurrency.

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INTELRUNNER

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🇮🇹 This is another chart worth keeping an eye on as Germany insists on committing suicide.

After hitting a high of 558bp during the 2011 Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe, the spread between German & Italian 10-year debt settled into a range between 1 & 3 percent.

It has now broken through the 2015 low in said range and sits at 74bp. Is Italy the new European safe haven?

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 It’s July PPI Day. The Producer Price Index for final demand strengthened 0.9% (3.3% y/y) during July after unrevised stability in June and a 0.4% May increase, revised from 0.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It was the largest increase…

🇺🇸 This is a more granular view of yesterday’s Producer Price Index numbers (left) and, since the increase was almost entirely in services, a more granular view of those as well (right).

In the second breakdown, you can see 0.6% of the increase in services is related to trade. This is from U.S. importers taking their tariff hit.

Up top, we have PPI MoM surprises (divergences from consensus forecasts) by standard deviations. July’s reading was 8σ off. That’s the largest since February 2021, and probably suggests there are some errors in the BLS’ assumptions (I know, no way!).

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 Homebuilders had their best day since November of 2022. 🔷 CHART WATCH 🔷

🇺🇸 The Homebuilders ETF is up 34.26% since its low just after Liberation Day and a golden cross on the daily seems imminent.

$XHB’s average volume over the past month is higher than it has been in a year.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 The Homebuilders ETF is up 34.26% since its low just after Liberation Day and a golden cross on the daily seems imminent. $XHB’s average volume over the past month is higher than it has been in a year. 📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸 The Biotechnology ETF is up 35.5% since its low just after Liberation Day (same day, April 9th) and a golden cross on the daily seems imminent here as well.

However, unlike $XHB in the last post, the average volume of late in $XBI is lower than the 2nd quarter volume. It’s still plateauing higher than it has in over a year, though.

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